Groundhog Day
Poster for the film
In 1993, just before I came out here, a new comedy was released which has now been added to the United States National Film Registry as being deemed “culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant”, Groundhog Day, (starring Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell and Chris Elliott).
As it happens, today, February 2nd, is Groundhog Day … when, according to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow and Spring will come early but if it is sunny and the groundhog sees its shadow and retreats back into its burrow, then this is taken as a sign that the winter weather will continue for six more weeks. The “holiday” now involves a whole range of celebrations where early morning festivals are held to watch the groundhog emerging from its burrow, the largest of which is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
Although there is some doubt about the statistic, according to Groundhog Day organizers, the forecasts are accurate 75% to 90% of the time … other people say it is more like only 40% accurate …
In the film, Bill Murray plays an arrogant and egocentric TV weatherman, Phil Connors, who is given an assignment to cover the annual event in Punxsutawney, and finds himself in a time loop, repeating the same day again and again. After indulging in hedonism and numerous suicide attempts, he begins to re-examine his life and priorities.
Although I enjoyed the movie, I find it hard to think of it as ”culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant” … so I suppose it is a good job I am not on the selection committee.
Groundhog Day is just one example of a variety of weather forecasting traditions from different cultures around the world and throughout History – perhaps the most familiar to us Englishmen being St. Swithun’s Day in July. Perhaps with the weather extremes we’ve all been experiencing recently, there will be more than just casual interest in the antics of Punxsutawney Phil … or whatever the latest incarnation of the prescient rodent is called.
Although we have lots of Marmots (groundhogs) here in Kyrgyzstan, there is no local equivalent of Groundhog Day – or, at least, not as far as I can discover. I am a bit surprised about that because the weather should have be a topic of vital importance for the nomadic shepherds but I am told that the closest equivalents are that a “hot summer means a cold winter” and that “when swallows fly low, rain follows”.
If we did have a Punxstawney Phil and he put his head out from his burrow, I wonder what he would make of the situation that greets him … whould he emerge and frolic or head back into his burrow?
If Punxsutawney Phil has any interest in mining then he probably somewhat confused over the controversy currently facing the Kumtor project. It’s probably been the biggest item in the news this week – although nothing is yet settled.
The report of the Parliamentary commission and international experts is in and the government had announced the various fines and other sanctions that they want to impose, the reorganization and renegotiation (or even cancellation) of the current agreements that they would like to see. They stress that the company will have to abide by Kyrgyz law but the company claim that they have scrupulously done so. The Western Press is confused about what the Kyrgyz want to achieve, but the politicians seem to say it’s simple – fairness. Anyway, the Kumtor board are considering their response; we’ve been promised a statement next week.
Meanwhile the situation over the Jeroy mine keeps resurfacing in the news … this week with the announcement that now all the legal issues have been dealt with, it is hoped that a new license can be issued and work get underway.
Mind you, it’s not that simple … there was also a hope that the government would finally be able to sell Zalkar Bank – the residue from the ill fated Asia Universal Bank which was owned and run by the Bakiev clan before the revolution. A fifth auction was supposed to be held this week but failed as no bids were received aven though the price has been reduced, yet again.
One of the problems with Kumtor seems to be tax concessions which the company were granted in the previous agreements. Tax policy is an issue that seems to be very prominent in the minds of Western governments as well especially when it comes to tax avoidance schemes adopted by international companies be it internet booksellers, coffee shops or on-line gambling.
Talking of gambling – Kyrgyzstan has not only banned casinos, but the President has now come out and said that he thinks Bookmakers and other forms of gambling should also be prohibited.
A bill against “usury” has also passed its first reading in the parliament providing for the National Bank to set interest rates that can be charged by Micro-finance institutions in an attempt to protect the vast numbers of people who have taken out a loan form them. It seems that quite a few people have two or more loans.
It was announced that the Patent fee for those working in Kyrgyzstan’s markets has risen something like 14-fold in the last six years, (from 700 soms to over 10,000 soms a month – that’s from just under USD15 to just over USD210). The patent is a “presumptive tax … pay the fee and forget about bookkeeping, reporting and most of the taxes due … income tax, sales tax and so on. Some people do well out of the patent by selling a lot more than was assumed when the Patent fee (the “presumptive tax”), was calculated. Others may not do as well, if their sales are lower than the assumed level, but they at least they operate under a simple system, easy to understand and administer.
It’s not simply a case of the government trying to raise more money … even though the budget is running a huge deficit and there is a question of how they can fill their coffers in order to fulfill their obligations. It was announced this week, for example, that 59 companies in the food processing industry are going to be exempt from paying Corporate, or profit, tax. It’s not just the government being generous, however, and not without conditions; they are expected to use the money thus saved by reinvesting it to increase the volume of production and acquire new technologies.
That struck me as an interesting approach, but I was even more pleased to see that the government are deliberating over the future of VAT and Sales Tax. In Kyrgyzstan we have both: everyone is supposed to collect and pass on to the government Sales tax, (unless they are are on a Patent, that is … in which case it is supposed to been included in the calculations setting the fee, whereas only those businesses whose turnover exceeds a threshold limit are expected to collect VAT. This effectively means that larger companies face a number of disadvantages: not only have to charge the customer more, (because there are two taxes included), but also having to fulfill the requirements and administer the complicated VAT system.
The situation down South, in the Ferghana Valley seems to have settled down … there are still reports of attempts to try and resolve the stand off that arose over the Sokh enclave. Tensions are, apparently, still high and reports at trying to organize reconciliation meetings were disrupted by a group of youths. I think that the news that university entrance exams will now have to be administered in either Kyrgyz or Russian – there will apparently be no Uzbek version this year – won’t help the situation.
Another interesting issue is that of advertising billboards and hoardings … a parliament committee has just decided that they must now be in either Kyrgyz or Russian … and only using the Cyrillic alphabet – no English or other languages are to be permitted …
The rules about adverts have been getting tougher and have been more stringently applied in recent years.
What’s more, some 159 billboards have been demolished in Bishkek … the story was that they were dangerous, (which raises all sorts of questions), but there was also a suggestion in the reports that the lease on them had expired … and also a comment that they were on the main route used by the President and other visiting dignitaries … which makes one wonder what the issue really was.
The story has been somewhat submerged under the weight of all the other news that has been emerging.
Some of that “news”, however, is not all it seems to be. You’ll probably remember that there was a mass fracas between groups of Kyrgyz and Chinese workers … well, this week saw another melee, this time between Kyrgyz and Tajik youths. According to the authorities – it was a fairly limited affair … between a couple of youths who had been drinking alcohol … and they are blaming the media for blowing it all up out of proportion. Interesting to consider that a “playground fight”, (if that’s not playing it down too much), between two schoolkids – one was 15 and the other was 16 – could make the national headlines and create such a kerfuffle.
The good news is, however, that official statistics suggests that Juvenile delinquency in the country is down – by 14%. When I read that, I couldn’t help but think of the stories I have seen in the British press about how crime statistics are being massaged by police intent on improving their statistics and meeting “targets”. It seems, for example, that investigating High Street shoplifting is a popular case amongst police officers because it tends to lead to an easy conviction.
Some of the crime statistics look quite good – there have more arrests for corruption and in some high profile cases … one of President Bakiev’s former “cronies” has been extradited from Kazakhstan … he’s been charged with “abuse of power” and remanded in custody for a month.
On the other hand, there has been another policeman murdered …
International relations have been much in the news this week.
John Kerry apparently made some interesting remarks about America’s concerns around the world, including Central Asia. I have no doubt that the Manas Transit Center is high on his agenda, and there are quite a few Public Relations storiesd about how the Center is doing things to help different groups in Kyrgyzstan … but a Russian newspaper is speculating that NATO (!) was going to switch its operations to Shymkent in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, the First Vice Prime Minister has told us that a Russian Company is eager to create a Transit Logistic Center at the airport.
In the meantime, a couple of commentators have been looking at the apparent choice before Kyrgyzstan: about choosing between closer ties with Russia or China. On politician likened this to a “slave’s choice”. There is a concern that joining a Eurasian Union, (with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus), would mean losing control over border tariffs and regulations whilst at the same time damaging, or destroying, the lucrative trade with China … which accounts for something like a third of the country’s GDP … bringing cheap goods into the country and creating substantial re-export possibilities.
One interesting example that emerged during the week concerned Chinese made shoes … it seems that Central Asia – not just Kyrgyzstan – has purchased something like 8 pairs for every person in the population … I don’t know any Imelda Marcos wannabes with anything like eight different pairs of shoes … so where are they all going???
That include, of course, the network of new routes which is opening up such as the new planned rail link between China and Uzbekistan … which the government is hoping to extend to the Kara Keche coal mine.
Whilst the debate continues, the Kyrgyz Ambassador to China has been busy meeting with representatives of Chinese companies trying to interest them in the many investment opportunities here.
Then there have also been several stories about bilateral ties – the new Dutch ambassador presenting his credentials, but he is not based in Bishkek; an agreement with the Thais to cooperate in a number of areas; there are discussions with Malaysia about investment opportunities … and so on.
Another big story this week has been a series of Earthquakes on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh border; one of them measuring a seven on the Richter scale. Fortunately, the epicenter was in a remote, sparsely populated area and there were no casualties, although the Ministry of Emergency Situations reports that something like 15 buildings have suffered serious damage. They have also warned that more earthquakes are likely, although I thought that earthquake prediction was not really possible.
I normally like to keep you up to date with various interesting statistics about Kyrgyzstan and this week the following caught my eye:
- Something like 1000 children are adopted in Kyrgyzstan each year: 1168 in 2010, 1072 in 2011 and more than 700 in the first nine months of 2012 … apparently there are something like 65 children who were in the process of being adopted by Americans and 20 by Italians when the system was suspended in 2008 due to concerns about corruption … and are still waiting for their cases to considered and concluded. One wonders how old they will be when the system is finally up and running.
- The Social Fund reported that something like 60% of all pensioners in Kyrgyzstan receive the minimum pension: 4270 som … that’s about USD90 a month … technically it’s above the subsistence level – but … my utility bills, (electric, gas, water and heating), come to 2600 som which would leave me just 1600 som a month for food …
- It was announced that in the Press Index survey of newspaper and other media outlets in Russia nad the CIS Kyrgyzstan was 36th (out of 255 countries and pseudo countries such as Ceuta – 214th place, Waziristan – 202 th, Kosovo – 108th … although the West recognizes it Russian and the CIS don’t and South Ossetia – 74th), in the second quarter of 2012, when it came the frequency of mentions in news stories. Stories apparently covered issues like asking the US to leave Drones in the country following the withdrawal from Afghanistan – remember that; the planned sale of the Dastan torpedo factory – which still hasn’t taken place; the construction of hydro electric power stations, remittances from migrant workers employed in Russia and other countries back to their families in Kyrgyzstan, school textbooks being published in Russian, environmental issues … and of course, the future of the Manas Transit Center. No mention of the Bakiev’s or Bride Kidnapping … which made me wonder what the rating would be in terms of the world’s press … and what topics are being reported in the West.
- In the Freedom house survey on Press Freedom, Kyrgyzstan rose two places to be ranked in 105th place … doing somewhat better than our neighbours.
- The National Statistical Committee have started to issue an index of “personal trust” felt by citizens in various state bodies, supposedly evaluating the quality of state and local government services and the confidence level of the population. In general, for the 4th quarter 2012, the level of trust in local governments was just 15.4% … although in the city of Osh it was 59.9%, and in the oblast generally – 24%. Confidence in Bishkek was just 2.9%.
Finally, the news of horse meat DNA being found in beefburgers in the UK, leading to them being taken off sale has caused a certain amount of bemusement here. “What’s all the fuss about?”, people are asking … after all, horse meat is considered a delicacy here.
But the best news for animals musty be that the Bishkek Municipality has finally decided that it is time to stop shooting stray dogs and cats roaming the city streets. The Council have decided to build a Kyrgyz version of the Battersea Dog’s Home … a Dog Pound or Kennel. It will be staffed by volunteers, but I am not sure how many of the strays will actually find a new home and for what proportion it will just mean a “stay of execution”.
I wonder if there would be a place for Punxsutawney Phil?
In terms of the weather – although the forecast was for snow, and even avalanches, we’ve been fairly lucky. Yes, there was some snow but it was a very light covering and the temperatures at the end of the week seemed very mild. It’s also been overcast and there was a day of fog which wasn’t particularly thick but should have been enough to prevent Punxsutawney Phil from seeing his own shadow and scurrying back into his burrow – suggesting a good Spring … well I hope that’s not just wishful thinking.
Oh, yes, and for the record … today would have been the birthday of Mikhail Frunze, the Red Army General born in Pishpek who subdued Central Asian during the Civil War that followed the Bolshevik Revolution. Happy Birthday Mikhail!
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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out. This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:
- Cuisine Tour - A tour itinerary giving a taste of Kyrgyzstan – 27/01/13
- Toru Aigyr - A village on the Northern Shore of Lake Issyk Kul with a sense of history and its own place in legend- 28/01/13
- A warning from the MChS - following a warning issued by the Ministry of Emergency Situations, I try to answer the questions who are they? and what they do? – 29/01/13
- School reports - One of the aspects of the Kyrgyz education system that took a lot of getting used to – 30/01/13
- The daughter of Soviet Kyrgyzstan - to commemorate Inspire your heart with Art Day, I took a look at one of the most important paintings in Kyrgyz history – 31/01/13
- Langston Hughes - although he may not have actually made it to Kyrgyzstan, the American poet’s interesting and informative, (if somewhat rose-tinted), account of his visit to Central Asia in the early days of the Soviet Union is still a good read – 01/02/13
It is now possible to follow me on Facebook, (where I have specific pages for Celestial Mountains and ianbek … and also links.kg and Kyrgyz Diary), and on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).
Bishkek