Postcard from Bishkek

Brixham is a small, picturesque, fishing port on the southern coast of the English county of Devon that dates back to beyond the Doomsday Book of William the Conqueror.  Popular with tourists, its main attraction is a replica of Sir Francis Drake’s ship, The Golden Hind, in which he circumnavigated the globe between 1577 and 1580.  It also has another claim to fame: it was here on November 5th, 1688, that William of Orange, (later to become King William III), landed with his mainly Dutch and the Glorious Revolution began.

When I was contemplating my diary for the week and saw the impending anniversary, I was struck by how history seems to repeat itself, (how many parallels can be drawn between situations and events in different times and places), and the impact that events which happened long ago have well into the future.

For those not familiar with this element of British History, let me explain:

These events may be referred to as the Glorious Revolution, but they are also called the Revolution of 1688, the War of the English Succession and the Bloodless Revolution, (but that is a misnomer).  It was a peculiarly British event and refers the events that led to the overthrow of King James II of England, (James VII of Scotland and James II of Ireland), by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch “stadtholder” William of Orange.

King James was an interesting character in English history.  Ascending to the throne in 1685, he inherited an extremely strong position from his brother, Charles II, but within three years he was to throw it all away, squandering all the goodwill that his brother had been so careful to cultivate.  There may be several factors which caused this state of affairs, but the main issue seems to have arisen chiefly from the fact that he was a Catholic, and England was resolutely a Protestant realm.

His policies of religious tolerance met with increasing opposition amongst the leading political figures of the time.  They were troubled by his Catholicism but also with his close ties with France.  These issues might, however, have been overlooked if it hadn’t been for the birth on 10th June, 1688, of James Francis Edward Stuart. This infant, born to the queen, disrupted the existing line of succession, displacing James’ eldest daughter Mary, (a Protestant and William’s wife), as the heir apparent to the throne.  The recent announcement of changes to be made to the rules of succession means that the dispute would have been a non-issue had they existed at the time, but the prospect of a Roman Catholic dynasty being installed on the English throne was enough to unite the leaders of the ruling Tory party with the opposition Whigs and William of Orange, (who had reason to fear a potential Anglo-French alliance), was “invited” to come and assume the throne of England.

After consolidating his political and financial support, William crossed the North Sea and English Channel with a large invasion fleet, eventually landing at Brixham in November 1688.  (It actually took him two attempts as a storm scattered the fleet in the middle of the North Sea on the first, a few weeks earlier.)  After only two minor clashes between the two opposing armies in England, and a number of anti-Catholic riots in several towns, James’s regime collapsed, (largely by a lack of resolve shown by James himself) and he fled into exile just before Christmas.

In February the following year, William convinced a newly chosen “Convention Parliament” to make him and his wife joint monarchs.  It has been argued that the Glorious Revolution began modern English parliamentary democracy.  No other British monarch has held “absolute power”, for example, and the Bill of Rights that resulted from these events has become one of the most important documents in the political history of Britain.

The Glorious Revolution, however, was not the end of the story.  The uniting of the British and Dutch naval forces changed the balance of power on the high seas, and thus affected the economic development of Europe as a whole.  The Catholics suffered continuous discrimination, socially and politically, (denied the right to vote for over a century).  James Francis Edward Stuart went on to become the Old Pretender and his son, Bonnie Prince Charlie, (the Young Pretender), attempted to gather support and lead rebellions in Ireland and Scotland, which still resonate down to the present day.

Well, it seems that there was little “Glorious” about the revolutionary election that we had last week, except for the fact that as one tweet put it, “OSCE in short: registration, campaign, preparations basically OK; election day a mess”.

The day itself passed off quietly.  Saturday was supposed to be a day a “silence”, in other words no campaigning was allowed, and that seemed be observed.  There were some comments on twitter but not anything like what we had seen in the previous weeks.  Most of the international coverage seemed to consist of op-eds: commenting on the difference between this and previous elections and the potential for the peaceful transfer of power;  hoping that everything would pass peacefully; analyzing the likely look of post election Kyrgyzstan, (the possible results, the effect on international relations, ) or how “election fraud” began long before the election itself.

The voters turned up to the polling station and were greeted by a veritable crowd of observers.  They had their hand checked before their thumbs were painted with special indelible ink and went to register, where they had to sign in.  Then they were given a ballot sheet and had to sign the counterfoil before entering a cubicle, (basically three pieces of board erected on a table so that no-one could see where they were putting their mark, but they were visible all the time … there were no curtains, and it was not possible to photograph the bulletin – ballot paper – so that they could show it to someone afterwards and collect a “reward”).  Then they folded the ballot form and took it to the urn, a perspex box on a tale in the middle of the room, and deposited it through the slot in the top.

Roza Otunbaeva went fairly early to cast her vote and made a few scathing comments dismissing claims that “administrative resources” had been used.  In a way she was lucky, she was on the list of voters, others turned up to the polling station to discover that their names were, for some reason, not there.  Even her son was turned away from the same polling station because his name wasn’t on the list – even though he apparently lives in the same apartment and has voted there in previous elections.  It turns out that his name was on another list at a different polling station.  I’m not sure if he actually made it there, but he wasn’t alone in this predicament.

One “twitter” commented that she had duly checked the voting list and found her name some time before election day, as the Central Election Committee had asked to people to do.  There she found a mistake in the spelling of her name and asked for it to be corrected.  It was, and she breathed a sigh of relief and relaxed after having checked the list on line, just to make sure.  When she turned up to vote at the polling station just yards from her home, however, she was told that her name was absent and was turned away.  Back to the internet.  She found her name listed at a different polling station – number 1004, not 1044.  So off she raced and this time she was able to cast her vote.  Apparently, it took her two hours.

I don’t know if we will ever know if the apparently thousands of voters whose names were “missing” fit into the same category … but less than a hundred complained and for many of them the situation was, it seems from the press reports, resolved.  However, all this raised tensions and tempers began to flare.  This was the biggest problem face on the day.

Another candidate also had an embarrassing moment, forgetting his passport and not having any other official document to prove his identity with him in one of the villages in the Naryn province.  He had to wait until one of his aides arrived from Bishkek with his drivers’ license.  Another important person, it seems, also didn’t have his passport with him, but he was allowed to vote and an investigation is being held if this is so, and if so, how this was possible and who allowed it.

There were questions about a polling station that didn’t open; about buses carrying people to vote – were they ferrying people from polling station to polling station in order to cast multiple votes; were the fingers of people who had cast their votes marked – the mayor of Osh refused to let officials mark his thumb claiming it was a violation of his human rights and the officials are facing sanctions for breaching the procedures; and if they were marked, why the ink – which was supposed to remain visible for 10 days – was easily washed off and rendered invisible, one person even posting photos on the internet of his clean thumbs which he said were taken after he had washed off the ink; whether observers, (or the electors), had been threatened or hindered in any way; if pressure had been put on government employees to vote for one particular candidate; about stuffing ballot boxes with bulletins, (ballot papers) and the actual counting procedures in some of the stations.  That evening, as the votes were being counted, the television news was full of the “violations” that had been reported throughout the day and, to be honest, I had a bad feeling as I went to bed.

The next morning, however, things seemed different.

The preliminary results, when they were published, were pretty convincing.  Some were actually impressive.  Although the overall turnout was just over 60%, some villages managed an almost 100% turnout.  Obviously in other areas the turnout was much lower – particularly in the South, Batken, Osh and the city of Osh, where only about 50% voted.  (Only 6% of the almost 40000 registered voters abroad actually cast their vote.) Madumarov managed to win in Batken (with 49% of the vote) and Tashiev in Djalal Abad (with 42% of the vote), but Atambaev took the rest- convincingly, very convincingly even with over 90% of the vote in two oblasts, over 80% in another two and almost 80% in Bishkek.  Even in the city of Osh he managed to win with 44% of the vote but in the Osh oblast, generally, he scraped into first place with just over 35% of the vote ahead of the other two main contenders who got about 29% each.

The vote in one polling station was annulled due to irregularities and a handful of others will be recounted, just in case, but the size of the winning margin was such that they are unlikely to affect the final result in themselves.

With over 63% of the vote, however, Atambaev clearly had enough votes to claim victory without having to go into a second round of voting, which required just 50%+1 of the votes.  (Even so, that’s just under 40% of the total electorate, but many presidents and prime ministers around the world would be happy with that).  Madumarov and Tashiev received just under 15% of the vote each, with the other 13 candidates, (and “Against all”), getting less than 1% each.  “Against all” actually scored more than eight of the candidates.

I was intrigued … all 16 of the candidates on the ballot paper had had to present lists with 30000 signatures in support of their candidacy to even get on the ballot paper, but in the election itself, only the top three candidates actually got more than 30000 votes … so what happened to all that support.

There were also quite a large number of spoiled candidates.

 

Even as the preliminary results were being published, albeit piecemeal – bit by bit, the controversy about them started.  Some of the candidates declared that they did not accept the results.  One referred to the election as “the dirtiest ever”.  One thought he had to have won, as he had “one and a half million votes”!  Apart from the question, “How did he know?”, it’s hard to see what happened to the ballot papers if that was the case.  Over 18 tons of special paper had been used to print them, (and another 20 tons was held in reserve in case a second round proved necessary), and it’s hard to see how they had been replaced by others if they had existed.

More than one commentator has pointed out that there is a need in democracy to develop an ability to accept defeat.

There were some protests in Bishkek, Osh and Djalal Abad by disgruntled voters who complained about the irregularities and demanded the election be conducted again.  One press early report talked about 1000 protestors, while another reporting the same event said that there were no more than 50 people present.  In the end, it seems that there may have been somewhere between two and three hundred.  Some women managed to “storm” the Osh oblast administration building, and some yurts were set up, but the numbers were not convincing enough to suggest widespread discontent.

The weather may have helped to dampen ardour, (literally), as it turned unseasonably cold and one protest was cancelled “due to rain”.  There were some comments on the internet about how most protests in Kyrgyzstan seem to take place in the Spring … but, at the moment, I think that is unlikely.

Congratulations slowly started to flow in, from Turkey, Russia, the US … and within the country. The results apparently even made headline news in Ghana!  Most of them seem to have centered on the fact that the elections were “peaceful” which seems to be seen as their main legacy rather the result … time will tell.  However most, if not all, the candidates have now accepted the result, (albeit reluctantly), and so we move on to the stage, and will see where that will lead.

 

There are many issues that now face the president elect, who has said that he intends to return to office as Prime Minister until his inauguration at the end of the year.  There is the shape of a new government, the resignation of the Prime Minister is provided as a sufficient reason for creating a new coalition and there has been lots of speculation as to how that may look.

Then there is the presence of the Manas Transit base.  Atambaev has said that he wants it to go in 2014 when the Americans are scheduled to pull out of Afghanistan.  This would certainly please the Russians who have wanted to see the back of the base for some years and have quite a bit of influence here, and will probably have more so in the new regime.  Officially the Americans are quiet on this possibility at the moment, but there has been quite a bit of attention paid to the possibility in the Press.

As well America and Russia, Atambaev will possibly face questions about Kyrgyzstan’s  relations with China, especially if we do enter the Customs Union.

Following all the allegations about Atambaev’s connection to Casinos in the country, there is the question about the recent ban imposed on them, which comes into effect on January 1st.  Roza Otunbaeva has signed the law so it comes into effect in the New Year, and will require an about face in Parliament if it is to be repealed ort amended.

We musn’t forget, of course, the question of a possible regional rift, (North v South), in the country.  Although Atambaev seems to have done well winning in both Osh city and the oblast,and coming a respectable second in both Batken and Djalal Abad, he still lost faces a lot of work in building bridges with and between the different communities down there.   There are already suggestions that the president elect is making overtures towards his rivals, albeit behind the scenes … “he doesn’t need arbiters” according to one his aides.

I may have been wrong when I said last week that we are likely to face a referendum in the near future introducing Constitutional changes.  Although most of the other candidates were in favour to returning to a system with a stronger presidency, (and there is some suggestion of support for this amongst the population), Atambaev, as one of the architects of the present Parliamentary system introduced last year, is likely to support the continuation of the Parliamentary experiment.  If we are to see another election next year, then it is more likely to be for another Parliament.

 

In other news, and there has been some, a fair amount of attention has been focused on the concept of a new Silk Road, probably as a result of statements being made by American officials.

One interesting effect following the election, although it could have more with the Euro crisis, is that the exchange rate for the US dollar has risen considerably.

One piece of good news – CNN is back on our television screens!   At first, I was so delighted that I almost watched it practically non-stop … but now I am back to channel hopping.

Next week should be a quiet week; there are holidays on Sunday and Monday and because Sunday is a holiday, Tuesday is a non-working day … unless you happen to work in tourism – the hotels, for example, are open all the time.

We have been warned to expect heavy rain and snow on Tuesday and Wednesday … and, oh dear, the central heating in our block isn’t working.

The oddity of the week was provided by NBC who informed me of the fact that Thursday was apparently National Sandwich Day in America … and also happened to National Men Make Dinner Day.  I wonder if that is meant to imply that men, (or at least American men), can only make sandwiches.  I don’t think I will offer any comment.

 

It will be interesting to see what slant history will place of the Revolutionary situation that we have experienced here in Kyrgyzstan over the past few years.  It certainly won’t be called a “bloodless revolution” but will it be deemed a “Glorious” one?  Maybe Ahmatbek Keldibekov, (the Speaker of the Parliament), was right when he said that these election are the beginning of a new stage of development for Kyrgyzstan”.  Once again: Time will tell.

 

Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there were posts about: Barsbek, an eighth century Kyrgyz leader thought to be the inspiration behind the legendary hero Manas; It’s the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown, taking a look at one of the lesser known, (if not tongue in cheek), Halloween traditions; Kolbassa, to commemorate the start of British Sausage Week; a brief biography and character sketch of Almazbek Sharshenovich Atambaev; a film preview about Igor Savitsky and his art collection, and one way, at least, in which Kyrgyzstan appears to be a trendsetter.

If you decide that you don’t want to receive these postcards in your email anymore, please drop me a line to  and I will take you off the distribution list.  Alternatively, if you know someone who might be interested in being added to the mailing list, then get them to drop me a line and I’ll be happy to do so.

 

 

Tags: Expat, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards