Not a Perfect Day

April 26th, 2014 Sections: Life In Kyrgyzstan, News, Weekly_Postcards
April 26

Not exactly a good day

Perfect Day is a song written by Lou Reed in 1972,and featured on his iconic album Transformer … and was the B-side of what was probably his most famous (or infamous) record, Walk on the Wild Side.

I have commented before how some dates seem to attract more than their fair share of particular types of events … rather than being evenly distributed between the days of the year, as one might expect.

When we think about it, however, that shouldn’t really surprise us … as there’s often a logical explanation for it.  They may be affected by external factors such as weather patterns.

I remember, for example, being taken to a lecture when I was at school and the speaker gave a classic example.   She had been researching an epidemic and was struck by the way that Monday seemed to be a particularly unlucky day … it was as if the germs, virus or whatever, was particularly pious in observing the Sabbath and other holy days, refraining from taking lives until after the holidays … It was on taking a closer look at the data that she realized that  she was looking at “tainted data”.  What she was looking at was not the actual date and time when the patients had died, but the date the event was recorded – when the clerical staff had returned to work.

Today, 26th April, is one of those dates:

  • As long ago as 1721, for example, a massive earthquake struck the Iranian city of Tabriz, (in North Eastern Iran), killing thousands of people, (estimates vary from between eight thousand and a quarter of a million – but it seems that the generally accepted figure is about 80,000), and destroying most of the most of the mosques and schools in this center of learning.
  • Another devastating earthquake, (measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale – who, incidentally was born on this day in 1900), struck on this date in 1966, this time in Tashkent in Uzbekistan, destroying much of the old city and leaving more than 300,000 people homeless.
  • A deadly tornado – the “deadliest tornado in world history” – struck Central Bangladesh in on this day in 1986, killing “upwards of 1,300″, injuring some 12,000 more and leaving some 80,000 homeless.
  • Likewise, on this day in 1991, some 70 tornadoes broke out in the Central United States – including the only ever recorded F5 strength tornado – killing 24 people and injuring hundreds more.
  • An abandoned Ferris Wheel in Chernobyl following the Nuclear Power Plant disaster in 1986

    An abandoned Ferris Wheel in Chernobyl following the Nuclear Power Plant disaster in 1986

    Perhaps, however, the most well known event associated with this date was the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Ukraine, in 1986.  An explosion and fire in Reactor number 4 at the plant released large quantities of radioactive particles into the atmosphere, contaminating some 50,000 square kilometers in Ukraine and spread over much of the western USSR and Europe – possibly the worst nuclear power plant accident in history, and is one of only two classified as a level 7 event (the maximum classification) on the International Nuclear Event Scale (the other being the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan following the Tsunami in 2011). Some 31 people died during the accident itself but the battle to contain the contamination (and avert an even greater disaster), was to involve over half a million workers – who are still recognized as heroes to this day and benefit from various state subsidies – and the day has been set aside as a special Day of Remembrance for Victims of Radiation Accidents and Catastrophes. The long-term effects of the incident, (such as cancers and deformities), are however, still being accounted for.

To be fair, however, even though it may not qualify as a candidate as a Perfect Day, April 26th isn’t just about bad news:

  • in 1803, for example, thousands of fragments from a 37 kilogram meteorite fell from the skies on the L’Aigle in Lower Normandy in North West France – during the early afternoon, (that is in broad daylight), and thus provided a host of eye witness accounts of the event, including: “In the village of St. Michel one stone fell on the pavement of the church yard. The stone ricocheted from the pavement  about one foot back into the air and came to rest at the feet of the chaplain who happened to stand in the churchyard during the fall. – Near the village of Bas Vernett a pear tree was hit. The stone cut off a branch of the tree. – In the village of Mesle the roof ridge of a house was hit. A large bar of wood came loose. The stone rolled down the roof and fell to the ground. – In the village of Des Anées Mr. Piche, a wirepuller was hit on the arm by a small stone. When he picked it up it was so hot that he dropped it instantly”.  Although I cannot find any casualty figures for the event – maybe there weren’t any – it was a momentous day and led to the widespread acceptance of the idea that extraterrestrial bodies existed.
  • On this day in 1991 the Supreme Soviet of the USSR adopted the law “On the Rehabilitation of Repressed Peoples”,which condemned the policy of “state tyranny and lawlessness, genocide and slander” as illegal, defamatory, and repressive … affecting not only the “repressed” themselves, but the population as a whole. The measure included provision for compensation to be paid for the damage caused to individuals and peoples as a result of “repression” as well as forbidding actions which might inhibit reconciliation and rehabilitation.

Well, I am hoping that this year won’t see anything of the same sort … during this week, at least here in Kyrgyzstan, we haven’t seen any major event or disaster.

Perhaos the worst “bad news” of the week was that the Russian giant Rosneft has turned down the deal to purchase a packet of shares in Bishkek’s Manas Airport,  This came as a bit of a shock.  I am not sure if the deal breaker was the details of the offer, (for example, it may not seem such an attractive asset now that the American airbase is finally closing), or, as some reports suggest, the conditions in the country.  The proposal had been highly controversial with several prominent people speaking against it … calling it a “strategic” enterprise, control of which  shouldn’t be in the hands of “foreigners”.  One of the Deputy Prime Ministers even went out of his way to say that such a sale to foreigners would be “ruled out”.

As it happens, there has been a fair amount interest in the airport and the company running the airport has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Turkish State Directorate for Management of Airports, (Guda), aimed at establishing a “fruitful and mutually beneficial” co[operation between them – both in terms if airport operations and non aeronautical activities – presumably things like marketing, retail, land management … and so on.

One decision which should help with the future development of the airport is that Kyrgyzstan is going to adopt an Open Skies policy … apparently in June.

Another interesting decision was to grant the airport in Batken the status of an International Airport.   

Part of the surprise of the Rosneft decision was because Russia is heavily investing in the Kyrgyz infrastructure and, I think, some people just took it as a foregone conclusion as soon as the original proposal was floated.  

Another of the major Russian investments has been the purchase of KyrgyzGas by the Russian giant GasProm.  Although the “price was right” – at least, just a token payment, they took on all the debts (about forty million dollars) and the need for capital investment.  The debt issue seems to have surfaced much sooner than anticipated.  During the period when the sale was being negotiated, KyrgyzGas signed short term contracts with both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to supply the Northern and Southern parts of the country respectively.  As is usual, things don’t always go according to plan – and there was a delay in approving the sale … and the contract expired … and although Kazakhstan agreed to an extension, it seems the Uzbeks apparently decided enough was enough and cut off supplies to the South.  The funny thing is that, according to the reports … KyrgyzGas claim that, at the moment at least, they don’t have a debt to Uzbekistan.

One way to resolve the problem might be to construct a pipeline over the mountains connecting the Northern and Southern parts of the country … and apparently they are considering just that.

Actually, Osh seems to be having a problem with water as well as gas at the moment … Oshgorvodakanal - the Osh City Water Board – is cutting off the water supply to the city for two days in order to undertake some maintenance work.

Lots of the “experts” tell us that water could well be, (or is going to be), the next major crisis point the world is going to face.  You’ve probably heard of Peak Oil, (the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached after which the rate of production is expected to enter a “terminal decline”), well there is now a new term to come to terms with – Peak Water, the point when we reach the physical, economic, and environmental limits on meeting human demands for water and the subsequent decline of water availability and use.

One of the main sources of fresh water in the country is the melt water from Kyrgyzstan’s 8000 or so glaciers.   They are considered to be so important that there is a new draft law, “On Glaciers”, laying down a legal framework for those who want to make use and work in the vicinity of them.  Last week we say comments from Kumtor that it would make it difficult for them to continue working … it would basically outlaw “open cast” mining … and necessitate them going underground to extract the ore.

For the record: One of the strangest stories of the week was the breaking news that the international law firm selected to represent Kyrgyzstan in the arbitration hearing with Stans Energy, has turned down the business … with no explanation or justification behind the decision being given in the reports … and the responsible Minister called on the government to prepare some of their legal term to conduct the case during the last few months.

Kyrgyzhydromet, the local Water Authority, have now issued a new warning about the decline in the flow of water into the Toktogul Reservoir.  They were expecting the flow to be just 80% – although the reports didn’t say 80% of what – but they have now revised that to just 68%.  This is obviously going to have an effect on power generation – but also on water supplies for both industrial and domestic consumption – not to mention in agriculture.

As it happens, there have been a considerable number of articles about “food security“.  On the one hand, there’s been good news … concerning the current market – for example, most of the apples grown in the country go to Kazakhstan and Russia – the fact that China has expressed interest in importing meat and dairy products from Kyrgyzstan, whilst Saudia Arabia are talking about opening meat processing plants … and the fact that Kyrgyzstan’s accession into the Customs Union will open up even more markets for Kyrgyz agriculture … and arguments that Kyrgyz agriculture should concentrate on producing organic products to meet this rising demand … but, on the other hand, several politicians are talking about problems in agriculture, saying that food security is approaching catastrophic levels … with discernible changes in the people’s diet being observed.  Before independence, for example, the average consumption of meat was 54 kilograms a year … but it has no dropped to just 37 kilograms, largely due to the cost, leading one expert to conclude that the people of Kyrgyzstan are “becoming vegetarians” … which is quite a telling comment given the local predilection for meat.   

The possibility of opening up or expanding new markets – or at least removing some of the barriers that producers encounter when exporting to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia – is still a moot point … the “road map” for accession is, apparently, nearly complete and the parliament were supposed to be debating the issue next week, but the Prime Minister has called for the debate to be postponed as some of the key players are going to be absent at the time it was originally scheduled to take place.

The big surprise, given the amount of discussion in the media on the issue, came when an analysis of the local press showed that “more than half” of the articles in the Kyrgyz media are favour of Kyrgyzstan joining – well, just over half … 51%, 30% were judged to be neutral and just 19% opposed to the move.  I suppose the headline can’t be faulted … 51% is more than half … but the sting really came in the second half of the press report: “Negative materials are, mostly, not supported by facts and analysis, statements and estimations are declarative. Positive articles contain analysis and statements by officials”, and “Negative statements appear against the background of discussions of internal problems of the country” … two statements, that may well be true, but seem to be somewhat “loaded”.

The headline on the issue that caught my attention was about President Atambaev asserting that if we didn’t join the Customs Union, then Gasoline prices would increase significantly … would double.  Well, that was definitely a “positive” news item and certainly contained a statement from an official … but I wasn’t sure what “facts” the reports were supposed to present … and it seemed to me that the analysis was lacking any detail and that the statement was more or less “declarative”.

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Once again I am approaching the limits of my time and space, but I didn’t feel that I could leave you this week without the following vignettes:

Last week a school in Southern Kyrgyzstan had to be closed because of an infestation of snakes … this definitely caught the eye of the foreign press and bloggerpshere … with most of the coverage being negative … and, true to form, showing a distinct lack of “fact” apart from the fact that the infestation occurred … what analysis there was, (that I saw – that is), seemed to be definitely superficial … and close to being a diatribe.

Staying with the subject of schools, for a moment, … there was an announcement from the Ministry of Education that they were considering permitting advertisements to be placed in school textbooks, with a view to raising the funds to pay for their publication.  Although it is true that is a distinct shortage of textbooks … and children are going to have to pay a fee to rent them next year – even if some people say that’s against the Constitution – I can’t help wondering if this the best way forward … apart from the ethical question about using a such a method to get an advert in front of a “captive” potential customer … a member of a vulnerable and impressionable audience, I also wonder how effective it will be as an advert and how many firms will consider consider such an advert.

If the controversy over textbooks wasn’t controversial enough … it’s been announced that as from September, there will be a requirement for school children to wear a school uniform.  Although a decision was taken to introduce school uniforms back in 2009, it was quite nebulous – “white top, black bottom”.  It looks as if the new proposed uniform will be a “uniform uniform” … a single uniform to be used across the whole country – not just as a means of encouraging a sense of identity and belonging among the pupils of a single school.  There’s a certain amount of controversy over the proposals … particularly on the issue of cost – as highlighted in the comment made by the Deputy Minister of Education: “The state does not have the possibility to provide school uniform for free”.

A somewhat surprising statistic came to the fore when it was reported that more than 12% of girls get married before they reach 18 … in rural regions, apparently, it’s more than 14% whilst in the city it’s just 9%.  This was announced at a Public consultation by the Head of Gender Policy at the Ministry of Social Development who went on to comment on the lack of state “crisis centers” for victims of domestic violence and the need for work towards strengthening the position of women in politics and economics.  Given the controversy over the promotion of “alien” lifestyles   which don’t conform to traditional values, I am wondering if we will see a similar outcry over this report.

At least we saw some good news when it was reported that infant and maternal mortality rates were declining, albeit modestly and it looks as if we won’t reach the level outlined in the Millennium Goals by the target date of 2015.

Following last week’s explosion of ordinance left over from the Batken incidents of 1999 and 2000, when armed militants crossed over the border from Tajikistan on their way to Uzbekistan … which cost a couple of teenagers their lives and injured others … during the week yet another victim of the incident was identified and started to undergo medical treatment.  I couldn’t help but wonder how on earth he remained undetected for so long – given that the incident occurred in a small and remote rural community where, basically, no-one gets “lost in the crowd”.  A much more worrying aspect of this story, however, was the discover of another unexploded  ordinance in the shape of a 53 centimeter long shell.

Then there was the story that 12 law enforcement officers were arrested last year … for drug trafficking.

During the week we saw three proposals from public figures.  One was to honour Vladimir Putin by naming a street after him … he already has one of Kyrgyzstan’s mountain named in his honour.  The interesting thing about this suggestion was that the proposer even suggested which street could be renamed … the one that was named after his own father.

During a debate in the parliament about prostitution, one of the deputies suggested that instead of fining or imposing prison sentences on sex workers, they should be given some sort of community service – such as cleaning the streets … which I suppose might give a new meaning to the phrase “street walking”.

Perhaps the strangest, however, came from the deputy who suggested that Kyrgyzstan should consider banning single, (i.e. unmarried),  foreign workers – in order to protect the country’s gene pool.  Reading the reports, (and without commenting on the practicalities or the constitutional issues involved), I couldn’t make up my mind if this was an off the cuff remark made in the course of the debate or an indication of a draft law that we can expect to see promulgated in the near future.  At this point, I think I should declare a personal interest, as a single foreigner working in the country … although, especially at my time of life, I doubt I if pose much of a threat to the country’s gene pool.

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

It is possible to follow me on Facebook, (where we also have specific pages for Celestial Mountains, the Silk Road Lodge, The Celestial Mountains Guesthouse in Naryn  and also links.kg, Kyrgyz Diary and Kyrgyzstan Visitki … and not forgetting ianbek), and also on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialM

 

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