Postcard from Bishkek

One of the things I often say is that “every day is special day for someone”.

Today, for example, marks the anniversary of the creation of the oldest Central Bank in the world – the Bank of England in 1694; the founding of Y Wladfa - the Welsh colony in Patagonia – in 1865; the birthday of the Hamburger in 1900; Walk on Stilts Day; Take Your Houseplant for a Walk Day; Bagpipe Appreciation Day and National Korean War Veterans Armistice Day … but more about those some other time … because today is a special day in Finland … it’s Unikeonpäivä.

To be honest, I wouldn’t blame you for asking “What???”, after all, Finnish is, apparently, a notoriously difficult language, but let me say by way of explanation that in English it’s called “Sleepy Head Day“.

The origins of the day are lost in time, but it is something to do with the legend of the Seven Sleepers of Ephesus; Christians who were shut up in  cave outside the city during the persecution under the Roman emperor Decius – either they went into hiding or were shut up as a punishment -who fell asleep only to wake up 180 years later by which e the city had become a Christian center.

For the record: There are references to the story in the literature dating back into the fifth century and even a version found in the Q’uran.  In Germany, the Seven Sleepers’ Saint’s Day, (June 27th – not July 27th), is like St. Swithun’s Day – a portent of the weather to expect for the coming season … if it is wet on Seven Sleepers’ Day, then expect a wet Summer … if the sun is shining, then expect a warm, dry one.

In Finland, however, the day is commemorated a month later … and in quite a dramatic fashion.  The last person to rise on that day is dubbed the laziest, (which strikes me as a bit harsh), and tradition has it that they have to be roused by either pouting water on them … or by throwing them into a body of water.

In the city of  Naantali, they go one step further by selecting a celebrity to throw into the sea from the city’s port at 7:00am in the morning.  The identity of the sleeper is kept secret until the event – but it is usually someone who has “done something to the benefit of the city” such as the mayor – what a way to repay them!  Still it all seems to be in good fun and accepted as such.

I have to say, however, that I am glad that the tradition never traveled to Britain because I am pretty sure I know who would have ended up wet on that particular morning in our household.

I wouldn’t get a soaking these days … I am normally up and in the office by 6:00 am.  Those early morning hours are a good time to get things done – with virtually no interruptions for a couple of hours until Nadia, my cleaner, arrives at eight.  Most of the routine stuff gets done at that time.   For example, I check the email and the various news websites.

 

It’s amazing how often I wake up to find something has happened overnight.    Twice this week, I woke up to discover that we had experienced earthquakes in and around Kyrgyzstan … fortunately nothing large, and no serious damage seems to have occurred.  We were told that so far this year we have had some 18 earthquakes, most of them small, (between 3 and 6 on whatever scale they use these days), but one of them was over six points.

Another day I woke to read a host of reports about yet another border skirmish.  This one was on the Kyrgyz/Uzbek border, and two Uzbek border guards were shot by their Kyrgyz counterparts.  One died straight away and the other was hospitalized in a critical condition and died later.  It’s not clear what happened … the two sides seem to tell totally different stories – each to their to their own audiences, suggesting that they want to justify themselves and place the blame fairly and squarely on the other side.  The Uzbeks claim that the Kyrgyz border guards were drunk and crossed the border, but the Kyrgyz claim that the Uzbeks were well inside Kyrgyz territory when they discovered.  They Kyrgyz border guards claim that they tried to persuade the Uzbeks to return across the border but a slanging match developed and the Uzbeks drew their weapons and fired … the injuries occurred when they, (the Kyrgyz, that is), returned fire.  No-one from the Kyrgyz side was injured.

According to reports, the Uzbek press has reported that the Kyrgyz admitted crossing the border and apologized for the incident.  The Kyrgyz press, on the other hand, seem to be adamantly following the official line and report that Kyrgyz officials are asking the Uzbeks to refrain from making statements until the investigation is complete.  I understand that representatives of the services, (border guards of the two countries), have met to discuss the incident but, at the moment, that seems to be where the matter rests.  The Kyrgyz Parliament have decided to discuss the affair if agreement is reached.  

Persoanlly, I don’t understand how soldiers from either side could possibly have “strayed” across the border … and there are lots of other unexplained points – for example: how did the injured soldier get back to Uzbekistan? … and, for that matter, the body of the dead soldier?, on what evidence is the Uzbek version of events based? (… I presume that must be on reports from the injured soldier before he died.)  None of the reports I have seen addresses these issues.

What they do tell us, (apart from agreeing on the fact that the shooting took place, and that one soldier died on the spot and the other was critically injured),  is that this stretch of the border has been the scene of incidents in the past, that there are witnesses from the local, (Kyrgyz), population that support the Kyrgyz version of what happened.

 

Those up at Kumtor must be breathing a sigh of relief over the fact that they are not the focus of the latest bad news from the Issyk Kul region.

This has centered on the Privatization of the Ski-Resort in Karakol … which was nationalized after the 2010 Revolution because of “connections” with the financial empire of the former President’s son, Maksim Bakiev.  Now the government want to privatize it once again, and the parliament have approved the move … but the locals are not happy.  They are “demanding”, among other things, that the process be stopped and that the resort stays in public ownership.

The other major industry in the Issyk Kul region, Tourism, has also been the subject of much comment in the news and analysis this week.  Although the “official line” jsut a few weeks ago was that the season would not be affected by things like the demonstrations against the Kumtor mine … indeed, that, on the contrary, it might be boosted by events in Turkey and elsewhere which might make Issyk Kul seem a preferable, (safer), destination for many Kazakhs and Russians.  Now, with many businesses in the region complaining that the number of tourists is much lower than last year – I have even seen figures suggesting “two and a half times lower” … that is considerably less than half … and even government officials are being to recognize this and change their tune.

The usual reasons are being quoted – poor weather, (although that ius hard to creit when we are sitting in temperatures approaching 40 degrees), anti-reklama or Black PR emanating from certain sources in Kazakhstan that would prefer to keep their tourists at home … oh, yes, … and reports of the almost continuous protests as seen in the Kazakh media.

 

The usual reasons are being quoted – poor weather, (although that ius hard to creit when we are sitting in temperatures approaching 40 degrees), anti-reklama or Black PR emanating from certain sources in Kazakhstan that would prefer to keep their tourists at home … oh, yes, … and reports of the almost continuous protests as seen in the Kazakh media.

As it happens, I don’t have access to the official figures … and we don’t really concentrate on selling putovkas - vouchers – for the resorts on Issyk Kul, nor I am not based in Issyk Kul and trying to fill a resort … but I am not yet convinced that the season is a total failure.  The impression I get is that there are still quite a lot of people up at the lake with some resorts turning potential guests away because “there is no room at the inn”.   It could, I suppose, be that a lot of those are Kyrgyz citizens taking advantage of “last minute offers” in order o attract guests and “pack people in” –  Although we work in a different market, (western tourists such as trekkers and people travelling the Great Silk Road, we are seeing more of less the same level of interest as last year – if not a slight increase.

I suppose there may well be a reduction in the numbers of people coming to sun themselves on the beaches of Issyk Kul.  After all, it emerged during the week that members of the Russian Military or people with access to sensitive top secret information are forbidden to holiday in Kyrgyzstan.  The regulations, which also prohibit them travelling to the United States – although they can still visit certain European NATO countries, (such as Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France,Greece, Italy, Norway … oh, yes … and Switzerland), was published in the Russian media and nonplussed a lot of us.  Apparently it is OK for Russian servicemen to be based in Kant or one of the other installations in the country … and presumably are allowed R-and-R whilst they are here … but they are not allowed to visit, with or without their families – at other times.

Another group of people who won’t be visiting are Indian Tour Operators.  In a wonderful piece of administration a “famtrip” was organized for them to come to Kyrgyzstan which included meeting local tour operators to discuss possible cooperation.  Everything was arranged but called off at the last moment … because there were difficulties in arranging visas for them.  If we can’t arrange visas for tour operators who could help send us many tourists, (and India is indeed a potentially valuable market for Kyrgyzstan), then what hope is there that we will be able to organize trips for groups of Indian tourists.

 

However, even if they are not at the center of these particular stories, Kumtor are not entirely out of the headlines, (a financial consultant, for example, has refused to look at the issues surrounding the mine – ostensibly because the time scale is too short).  Indeed, things may be looking up for the troubled Gold mine … the government seem to sounding more positive and the share price seems to have recovered at least some of its recent losses.

 

On the economic front, it was reported that the US dollar has risen in value by about three and a half percent since the beginning of the year.  With a floating exchange rate, of course, some fluctuations are inevitable … and I understand that there is even a seasonable element to these fluctuations, but this year the rise in the value of the dollar is about two percent more than we saw last year.  One of the more interesting justifications for this that I saw reported was the lower number of tourists visiting the country, however, the more likely reasons seem to be connected with an an increased demand by commercial banks caused mainly by the necessity to make payment for imports, (in particular for fuel, automobiles, metal products and consumer goods).

That looks to me like a classic case of inflationary pressure in the making … let’s hope, however, that it helps to make Kyrgyzstan a little more attractive to American visitors.

At least we have discovered that Kyrgyz Industrial production is showing positive signs of growth – it was reported that it has doubled since 2006.  That struck me, however, as an odd statistic … why choose to compare the current situation with 2006?  The choice of a base year can be very important … and 2006 was not necessarily a good year – as it followed the Tulip Revolution of 2005.

I remember arguing with Sir Kieth Joseph, when he was Britain’s Education Minister and was trying to impose a pay deal on teachers, that I understood the government was intent on comparing the level of teachers’ salaries to those in 1979, (when the government was elected), but I thought that the situation in 1973 was a better benchmark – because it followed the publication of the James Report – an independent report which,  recommended much higher salaries, (but, incidentally, was never fully implemented).  By choosing 1979, the government were institutionalizing the failure to implement the report not to mention the devaluation which already occurred in the previous six years before the Tories came to power …       

More recently some African nations have redefined the basis on which they calculate some of their economic statistics making an incredible differences to some of the measures.

As it happens, it was also reported during the week that Kyrgyzstan ranked 145th in the world in terms of terms of GDP, (Gross Domestic Product), at just under six and a half thousand dollars – which puts us slightly behind our neighbours Tajikistan (in 142nd place – with almost seven thousand dollars) … and way behind Kazakhstan (in 49th place with over two hundred thousand dollars).   Top of the list was the United States (with a GDP of over fifteen and a half million) and China, (over eight million).

There’s a risk that we might fall even further.  The International Monetary Fund, in a report, said that the implications of closing the Manas Transit Center involves a considerable loss of revenue to the state – not just in taxes but in other payments, (for example, income from state or municipal property, or from the activities of state/municipal institutions, revenues from the sale of land and intangible assets, the proceeds of capital transfers from nongovernmental sources, administrative fees and charges, penalties and damages) – although they only seem to suggest that this could be something in the region of twelve million dollars.  On top of that, however, the World Trade Organization, (WTO), estimates a five fold decrease in profits for the airport.

Talking of tax, (well, the article referred to non-tax payments to the state), you could have knocked me down with a feather when I saw another report – that said that VAT wouldn’t be abolished in the next couple of years.  Now I had heard that there was a suggestion of doing away with the tax, but apparently the commission set up to examine the prospect has come up with some difficulties which will have to be addressed before they can do so … I presume that means deciding how they can make up the loss of revenue.  Although most businesses here are not registered for VAT – it is by far the biggest earner for the state … as well as being the biggest headache for those that are registered.  I know that the economists and tax specialists seem to “love” this tax – but to my mind, although the idea seems appealing, the administration is horrendous and seems to be getting more and more complicated as time goes by.  I, for one, will probably not shed a tear if it is abolished … even if it means higher tax rates elsewhere or a cumulative sales tax … provided, of course, that whatever replaces it is fair and transparent.

The more complicated the tax system, it seems to me, the more opportunities it creates for misunderstanding, mistakes, manipulation or just straight corruption … and no matter what positive signs are being projected in the battle against corruption, according to one survey published this week, 42% of the population consider that it is growing.

 

During the week, there was lots of news about new festivals … following on from an international pop festival in Issyk Kul – which was so successful that there is talk of it becoming an annual event … Woodstock under the Kungey Ala Too, perhaps.  Here in Bishkek there’s a Dance Festival, we are about to see a “Street Workout” Festival for fitness fanatics, there is the annual At Chabysh festival in celebration of the Kyrgyz Horse and am International Theater Festival later in the year.

One celebration I doubt that we will see being adopted, however, is Unikeonpäivä … although … who knows … Maybe President Atambaev has advance knowledge of something … and knowing what happens to celebrities in Naantali, he has decided to take a week’s holiday.

 

I hope he has a good rest!

 

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

It is possible to follow me on Facebook, (where I have specific pages for Celestial Mountains and ianbek … and also links.kg, Kyrgyz Diary and Kyrgyzstan Visitki), and also on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).

Tags: Expat, In_the_News, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards