Postcard from Bishkek

During the week I got a message from Australia, warning me that the forecast was for extremely low temperatures, with a “high” of minus 16, and telling me to “stay indoors – don’t go out!”.

The Kyrgyz politician who solemnly announced in a press conference that Europe would be inundated under floods and that there would be no winter this year has found himself with egg on his face and been subject to more than a certain of ridicule as this week we experienced the coldest day, (at -23 Celsius), in Bishkek this year and one of the coldest in recorded history.  (Apparently, in 1930 a temperature of -34 was recorded, but the records don’t give the actual date.  We do know, however, that on January 7th and 8th, 1956, it fell to -30.)  The city authorities dispatched 18 snowplows to clear the roads, and 2 trucks were used to dispense 37 tons of salt to deal with the peril of black ice.

A friend of mine who goes to the gym regularly was surprised to find it closed and he was turned away, the trainer saying that it was too cold to exercise; it was dangerous to his health. I suppose he start to put on weight again.

One American ex-pat is reputed to have stood at the window of his apartment staring bemusedly out at the snow and muttering to himself over and over again, “There will be no winter?, there will be no winter?”

Maybe the messages Abdyldaeva claimed to have received from the “cosmos” were distorted somewhat in transmission.  Perhaps they meant to say that South East Asia, and particularly Thailand, would be submerged and that winter would come, with a vengeance.

Still, the cold spell has kept him in the public eye as a host of people have posted jokes at his expense on the various social media forums, (or should that be ‘fori’?), and it has helped to promote the video of the press conference going viral with hundreds of thousands of views.

What is more, I suppose there is a chance, (a slight chance), that he might yet be vindicated.  After all, he didn’t say when Europe would be flooded, and I have no doubt that at some point there will be widespread flooding there, especially if the predictions about the effects of global warming come prove to be in any way accurate.  As for “winter” … well, it’s not over yet; indeed, it has only just started.  (Here, December 1st is considered the first day of Winter, which encompasses the months of December, January and February.)  The weather could yet improve so that, when we look back at this period from some point in the future, it may turn out to be just a cold snap … maybe the last cold snap … before global warming causes an irreversible climate change.  However, I am not holding my breath and the predictions I have seen for potential climate changes suggest that rather than winter disappearing from Central Asia, it will simply change in form.

 

Apart from the weather, (and the perennial issues such as the future of the Manas Transit base, court cases arising out of last year’s “troubles” and the plight of Central Asian migrant workers in Russia), the news this week seems to have been dominated by three new stories: the events in Kazakhstan last week; the formation of a new government and an energy crisis.

The events in Kazakhstan have attracted a lot of interest on the internet but the main fallout here seems to have been problems with the internet as certain sites and services seemed to go down.  Twitter, in particular, seemed to disappear completely.

After protracted negotiations, four of the parties, (the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, Ata-Meken, Ar-Namys and Respublika), eventually signed a coalition agreement a week ago.  The agreement was one thing, an outline of principles, but what followed was to settle the details … the structure of the new government and who was going to sit in what chair.  We at least have a new speaker in the parliament following departure of the previous incumbent, Keldibekov, but discussions on the structure, program and personnel of the new government were postponed over technical procedural difficulties.  They had until next Wednesday to get this sorted out. Fortunately, the parliament approved the government just after nine o’clock last night.

In terms of energy, supplies of Gas to the republic have been reduced and the lack of pressure in the system has led to some of the suburbs of Bishkek being disconnected.  It’s not clear to me why this is so, but there are stories about a “malfunction” or “accident”, but it is not clear if this was in Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan.  Most people cook with gas, but a number of private houses that aren’t on the municipal central heating system also heat their homes by gas, so they are sitting in the cold – and far from happy.

Large areas in Bishkek, and the Chui, Issyk Kul and Naryn regions also had their electricity cut off due to an overload in Kazakhstan.  We have suffered several power cuts during the week leading residents staging  an impromptu protests blocking one on the streets in the western suburbs..  The situation seems strange when you consider that Kyrgyzstan has considerable hydro electric capacity but, apparently, it is all to do with the fact that we belong to a regional system which was set up in the Soviet period, the Central Asian power grid.  As a result, the power lines from one part of the country to another tend to run through the territory, (and power grid), of our neighbours.  Kazakhstan has said, once again, that they want to withdraw from the grid because Uzbekistan takes power from them through it “without any contracts” because they have a shortage.  The experts consider that this will a “disaster” for Kyrgyzstan, leading to power rationing, (that is, rotational blackouts on a large scale, possibly only 2 hours of electricity a day, and possibly the whole of the Northern part of the country being “de-energized” for periods).  The measures needed to prevent this happening will take about two years to put in place

The problems in the electricity supply have also had knock-on effects in that dozens of high-rise buildings in the capital have been left without heat as the municipal heating station began to turn off central heating around the city as a result of the constant disruption of power to the pumping stations. Pressure in the pipes dropped drastically and hot water failed to reach some of the outlying districts on the Southern end of town.  If the situation persists, then it could well be that some regions will remain without heating for some time.

This has all led to speculation that tariffs will have to rise soon … and, for that matter, reminders that it was drastic rises in tariffs that acted as a catalyst which stimulated the revolution in 2010. That’s probably why the Energy Minister told a parliamentary committee that tariffs should be raised slowly over several years.

As for the Manas Transit base, a new hurdle has appeared that puts its future in jeopardy.  The members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, (CSTO), have voted that in future the presence of any foreign bases in its member states will have to be approved by them all.  The only such foreign base at the moment happens to be at Manas.  It just so happens that this week the Americans released figures which show, they say, that the base has contributed almost one and a half billion dollars to the Kyrgyz economy since it opened ten years ago in 2001.  In that time some two million servicemen have passed through the base.

After considering athe case for most of the year, the Supreme Court has finally decided to uphold the conviction and life sentence imposed on Azimzhan Askarov, an Uzbek human r4ights worker, for taking part in the instigation of last year’s events in Bazaar Korgon the South, in which some 23 people were killed.  The decision has caused some adverse comments in the international press and  Askarov himself has issued a statement saying that evidence against him was falsified and calling for a new investigation of the case, threatening to go on hunger strike if there isn’t one.

On the economic front, it seems that no-one wants to buy a Kyrgyz bank.  The third attempt to auction the Zalkar Bank failed as no bids were offered, even at the reduced price, so a fourth auction, at an even further reduced asking price, is being scheduled.

It’s not just banks that are going “cheap”.  It seems that Kyrgyz labour is amongst the cheapest in the former USSR.  Cheap labour is supposed to be one of the things that is supposed to one of the criteria that is thought advantageous when it comes to attracting direct foreign investment, and if that is the case then it should be encouraging foreign investors to be beating a path to us.  It seems that the average Kyrgyz salary, (at about USD150), is considerably less than in Kazakhstan, (where it is almost three times higher), and Russia, (four times higher).

Even though people may be prepared to work for such low salaries, not everyone can work jobs.  There was the report from the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Migration, for example, that more than 50% of the available workforce are unemployed.  That figure is a lot higher than the official figure, so it caught my attention – I find such statistics, official or otherwise, fascinating; as I am constantly saying, they raise more questions than they answer.  The press release pointed out that the “real picture of the labour market is very complicated” and I thought to myself, “I wonder which figure is correct”. I don’t have evidence to back this up, but a gut reaction tells me that they might be closer to the truth with this latest figure.  As it happens, I think that there might be other factors behind the news being released now: the Ministry is the main government agency for addressing issues with employment and, together with financial and technical support from the German Society for International Cooperation, (GITS), has begun to establish a series of data centers to try and improve the quality of statistics … but it seems that under the plans to slim down the government, the Ministry is to disappear with it various functions being transferred to other bodies.

Anyway, many of those who cannot find work end up seeking it elsewhere – primarily in Kazakhstan, (where, technically they can receive almost three times as much) and Russia, (four times as much) – but life isn’t easy for such migrant workers in their new homes.  There are often reports in the local about the problems faced by migrant workers from Central Asia in their new life: violence at the hands of racist nationalists, (“being covered in bruises is seen as an inescapable side-effect of living in Russia”; harassment from the police and they often end up in low paying menial jobs, eager to save as much as possible in order send money home to support their families.

 

As far as I am concerned, I would have been happy to take my friend’s advice and “stay indoors”.  Unfortuantely, I have had a string of meetings to attend.  One was the Annual General Meeting of the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators, KATO.  During the election of Officers, I was elected as President for 2012.  (This will be my fifth term since 2005). It was a close vote, 13 to 12, and there were a few procedural problems associated with the conduct of the vote; (so it’s not just the parliament that is plagued by this sort of difficulty).  Anyway, as a result, we’ve agreed to call another meeting and will probably hold a re-run of the election; so I don’t know if I will be confirmed in the post or not.

In the meantime, however, I have to take up the duties of office and I find that I now have even more meetings to attend.  For example, within days I got invited to one meeting to discuss the proposal to introduce a 90-day visa free regime for the citizens of over 40 countries.  One thing surprised me at the meeting: the almost universal agreement in that no one was “opposed” to it.  Even the representative of the Security services said that they were not opposed, but then he went on to give his reasons why it he thought that it shouldn’t be done (!).  These included the fact that the border posts aren’t equipped to deal with it, (I am not sure what sort of equipment they need, and it only affects s few border crossings, because most of the border crossings points are designated for use only by locals).  When it came to the possibility of an increase in the risk of terrorism, organized crime and extremism, the representative of MVD, (the Ministry of the Interior), surprised us all by seeming to say that the statistics don’t seem to support this.  Although there have been some, (albeit very few), cases where there have been infringements of the regulations by foreigners, they have not been significant and the Ministry saw no reason to oppose the measure.  So, we continue to keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.

If a former Presidential candidate, (that is candidacy for the presidency of the republic, not the association), can claim to have received extraordinary communications, (in his case, messages from outer space), then he’s not alone.  A civil servant working for the State Commission for Religious Affairs has claimed to have received a divine revelation.  This was “revealed” in a post on the Forum18 site about some of the problems religious groups experience here in Kyrgyzstan.   It is a Christian group based in Norway, but this particular post featured the problems faced by a number of groups including a Muslim one.  The Commission had refused to register it and the official was being asked why.  His reply was that they were dangerous, which led to a supplementary question, how did they come to that conclusion, to which he apparently replied: “I received it from heaven”.

I wonder in what form that communication came.  I doubt that it was in the form of a visit from an angel like those to the Virgin Mary and Joseph announcing the birth of Jesus – remember that it was said that angels are not part of Kyrgyz culture and that was one of the reasons for demolishing the statue of Erkindik and replacing it with a statue of Manas.

Well, tomorrow is Christmas so I will some time off, to cook a Christmas Dinner.  During the week I have to go up to Naryn to finalize the end of year routines: tax returns; sign contracts. That sort of thing.  I hope and trust that the weather will be kind and even if there is snow on snow, that we won’t end up with frosty winds moaning, earth hard as iron and water like a stone,

 

All that remains is to wish you all a Happy Christmas!  Have a good day tomorrow.

Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there were posts about: A new book about the Wildlife Of Kyrgyzstan; The Bookshop Where They Are Giving Away Books … (yes, honestly); the dilemma involved in the Time Lag … between writing an article and seeing it finally in print; a question you have to ask about many of the maps of Bishkek, Which Way Is North?; A House Divided concerning the elections of the president of KATO; Roads in Kyrgyzstan

We have added three new panoramas to www.see.kg showing winter scenes outside the Theater of Opera and Ballet and in the main Ala Too Square

It is now possible to follow me on Facebook, (where I have specific pages for Celestial Mountains and ianbek), and on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard).

 

 

If you decide that you don’t want to receive these weekly postcards in your email anymore, please drop me a line to  and I will take you off the distribution list.  Alternatively, if you know someone who might be interested in being added to the mailing list, then get them to drop me a line and I’ll be happy to do so.

 

Tags: Expat, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards