Postcard from Bishkek

Sir Francis Drake is known as one Elizabethan England’s greatest Heroes: the sea captain who led raids on the Spanish colonies in the New World … a scourge of Spanish shipping across the Atlantic … who “Singed the King of Spain’s Beard” with a daring raid on the harbour of Cadiz … and many a deed of daring do that were to delight and inspire schoolboys over the following centuries.

It was on December 13th, 1577, that the legend of Sir Francis really began to be formed, as he sailed out of Plymouth Harbour with a fleet of five small sailing ships on the first of his major expeditions … heading for the Caribbean and the West coast of South America with the intention of creating havoc and creating the maximum damage in the Spanish colonies there. The voyage didn’t stop there, however, as the flotilla continued South and rounded Cape Horn, sailing into the Pacific and up the continental coastline as far as Northern California and as far as Washington State.  Heading West they took on a cargo a spices in Indonesia … capturing many Spanish Galleons and much Spanish treasure before returning home some three years later with a rich cargo worth over half a million pounds … for which the Queen rewarded him with a knighthood.

An indication of the trials and hardships encountered on the journey is that, actually, only one ship from the flotilla made it back home – his “flagship”, the Pelican which he renamed as the Golden Hind, the others sinking at various places en route.

As such he is known as the first Englishman to circumnavigate the globe … which always strikes me as a little unfair, because … what about the rest of the crew who accompanied him and went through the same trials and hardships? I suppose he can rightly claim to being the first Captain to successfully complete the voyage … after all, his predecessor who is normally credited with the first man to sail around the world, Ferdinand Magellan, was killed in the Philippines and his ship brought home by others. Now, Drake is hardly remembered as a man of letters.

He almost certainly never said what is his most famous epithet: “There’s plenty of time to finish this game … and thrash the Spaniards too” – when his game of bowls was disturbed by the signal that the long awaited and dreaded  Spanish Armada had at last been sighted in 1588.

Well, there’s no enemy on the horizon today, but I hope there is going to be time to finish the postcard this week.  In doing so, I’ll try and cover the highlights of the last fortnight here in Kyrgyzstan instead of just the usual week.

I didn’t get to send out the postcard last week because, as I was writing it, I was taken ill and, in turn, took to my bed – anxiously recalling what had happened the last time this occurred.  As it happens, it turns out to have been nothing too serious although the doctors insisted on intravenous drips, yet more tablets and an admonition to … “stick to the diet!”, (which I am doing, anyway).

One reason I may been taken ill last week was that we saw a dramatic change in the weather, with heavy snow cutting off a number of villages.  MES, (the  Ministry of Emergency Situations) had been busy sending out Weather Warnings predicting that, at least in some parts of the country, the temperature could fall as low as -38ºC to -43ºC.  To be fair, that extreme was a predicted nighttime temperature in Suusamyr, which is on a high mountain plateau, but during the daytime it didn’t that much better: -25º to -30º.  Down here in the Chui valley, (where Bishkek is), the prognosis was: daytime: – 12º to -17º and nighttime: -15º to -20º.  For once, although theytend to be fairly accurate here, I hoped that the weather forecasters might prove to be mistaken ….

Unfortunately, although the eventual figures weren’t quite as bad … they were still pretty close. At least the next week looks better.  The temperatures are still predicted to be in negative territory … but closer to zero.

All of this is having an effect on the level of electricity consumption. We are still exceeding the “limits” set by the generating companies – and although it is too early to tell, it doesn’t look as if the increase in tariffs is going to be much of a deterrent.  

I suppose it would be natural to think that all this snow and ice would be good for the glaciers and the reservoirs that they feed … but apparently not.  The latest estimates produced by the World Bank in a report on the likely effects of global warming provide dire reading.  No matter what models they apply, the forecasts predict a dramatic reduction in both the amount of precipitation and the coverage of glaciers in Central Asia … and the the amount of water in the river systems of the region – vital for agriculture and hydro-electicity generation.  By the end of the century, for the example, the glaciers are predicted to be just 50% of their present size … or less.  It looks as if the massive hydroelectric power stations currently under construction might be useful for just a few decades …   

These projects, both here and in neighbouring Tajikistan, are supported by Russia and represent very major investments.  In fact it’s not just the glaciers and precipitation which are shrinking, these projects are representatives of a dwindling pool of investment.  Direct Foreign Investment in the country, for example, has fallen by a third during the first nine months of the year.  This is despite the improvements that the government have trying to implement and and the constant declarations that “Investors are welcome in Kyrgyzstan”.

 

Something needs to done … the country’s external debt has doubled in the last 10 years and is rapidly approaching 60% of GDP – which the economists reckon is a critical level after which the economy will not be sustainable.

The rising level of debt is only partly due to the loans that we have received – but there are other factors that have played a major tole … such as the effective devaluation of the som which one survey has rated as “one of the 10 weakest currencies in the world”.

The value of the som is falling against a basket of currencies (although it’s currently being held more or less steady against the dollar – thanks to interventions by the National Bank). The one exception seems to be the Russian Ruble … which is falling thanks to the economic downturn in Russia and is now roughly equivalent to the som – the first time this has ever happened.

Of course, one of the biggest deterrents to foreign investment is what one commentator called, “The Never Ending Story” … surrounding the Kumtor Gold Mine.  The Board of Centerra has been in the country and some discussions have taken place.  In theory, the government have to report to the Parliament by the 15th – that’s Monday, but they don’t seem to have reached any agreements yet.  The President has called for a deal to be struck by the end of the year and has suggested that without one, nationalization may well be “on the table”.

One of the political parties that has been arguing the nationalization case long and hard for some time has actually published a draft bill which it has submitted for the parliament’s consideration.

The President  has also been critical of various politicians who have been “using” the Kumtor situation as a tool for exploiting a feeling of “popularism” … and he’s been fairly evenly handed because he’s also criticized the government for for “cowardly” inaction.

If nationalization is eventually the path chosen by the politicians, then they will face the question of having to pay compensation.  This has been held up by the opponents of the measure as a reason why it shouldn’t be “on the table” – it would basically wipe out the value of the country.  Well those proposing the measure say that compensation can be paid out of the profits earned by the company … that is, from future profits  … Hmmmm, that sounds easy but, I wonder, will it prove to be so straight forward … somehow, I doubt it – but we’ll see.

It seems that a large number of cases where a business has been nationalized  (… for one reason or another – not always as a result of the revolution), has ended up in the courts (… for one reason or another – but not always over compensation).

There has already been several high profile cases that have gone to international arbitration – and most of them have been lost, involving yet more payouts.

In fact, Kyrgyzstan may end up having to pay compensation for something else as well … for deciding to join the Customs Union.  Members of the World Trade Organization who are put at a disadvantage because the conditions that apply in the new situation adversely affect them, then they can demand compensation.  Fortunately, the current members of the Customs Union have stepped up and said that they will help if it proves necessary.  The Minister of the Economy seems to think, however, that it won’t be necessary.  Hmmmm, all that sounds good but, I wonder, will it prove to be so straight forward … somehow, I doubt it – but we’ll see.

Anyway, apparently – or so we are told – everything is more or less in place for “the signing” in ten days time.  I did wonder if all the packages of amended legislation will be ready, (there being so much of it), but it looks as if there was enough time to finish that particular game …  but that’s still not the end of the story, as there will remain a lot to do … such as equipping all the customs posts … and the common customs tariffs will only come into force sometime in May … and so on.

Hopefully, however, some of Russia’s simplified employment regulations will come into force on January 1st, masking life a little easier for the migrant workers who work there, at least in theory – we’ll have to see how it works out in practice.  There is some opposition in Russia to Central Asian migrant workers, and their numbers have dwindled – as has the amount of money that they have been sending home – especially now that there is the falling ruble.  These remittances being such a major part of Kyrgyzstan’s balance of payments – and reduction in the amount these workers can send home represents another blow to Kyrgyzstan’s economy.   

If all that sounds like “Bad News” – and it has to be admitted that, although it isn’t exactly “Good News”, there are some positive signs. I am not sure, however, how many will agree with the President who felt able to say during a television interview that the international community no longer sees Kyrgyzstan as a “poor country”.

He referred to a number of international reports, for example – from the World Bank, which indicated that the country was performing reasonably well … improving its position.

Indeed, there was the report of Transparency International … in which Kyrgyzstan rose 14 places.  The gave the credit for this to work that is going on in the fight against corruption – and the strong backing from the President himself.  The corruption agencies which has been extremely active bringing over 300 cases to book in its first 11 month of operation.

True, some of the cases have been against low level functionaries, but others have been much more high profile including relatives of deputies and even some deputies and high ranking officials themselves.  

One case that has hit the headlines in these weeks has been against the former Mayor of Osh, Melis Myrzakmatov, who is accused of “abuse of power”.  He disappeared and there were rumours that he had gone to Kazakhstan, or Urumqi, and he was placed on Interpol’s International Wanted List.

Interestingly, there has also been a spate of “espionage” stories during the fortnight.  A man from Batken in Southern Kyrgyzstan was convicted of spying in Uzbekistan and given a lengthy prison sentence.  Then a group of children in Lithuania were accused of being recruited as agents and being trained whilst at a summer camp hosted by the Russians up at Lake Issyk Kul.  Then, an official at the Kyrgyz embassy in Tashkent was found at the Kyrgyz-Kazakh border with “secret” documents in his possession.    

The charges of inciting racial hatred  that had been levied against Freedom House, however, have been dropped.

Interestingly, Freedom House were in the news for something else … the results of their Internet Freedom survey.  Kyrgyzstan did quite well, improving its position, but this was somewhat sullied by the news that a news agency’s site was being blocked because they posted a video showing Kazakh children in an ISIS camp – threatening to kill “infidels”.

There has also been criticism of journalists who sully the name of Kyrgyzstan by reporting only bad things, such as the corruption scandals … one deputy saying that they should concentrate instead on praising their country.

Then there was a protest meeting held where members of some non-governmental organizations criticized the media for acting as Western agents, and pushing Western values and ideas.

As I said, however,  there is good news to report.  According to the World Health Organization, for example, the child mortality rate in Kyrgyzstan has decreased from 50 to 22 per 1,000 live births.  And it does get reported … but, as is true elsewhere, gets smothered by the wealth of scandal and controversy.  

One of the deputies, not a journalist as far as I am aware, asked why is it that Kyrgyzstan cannot fund the development and maintenance of it’s own road network.  Most of the work that has been undertaken since Independence has been funded by foreign governments of international donor agencies.

As it happens, he could have chosen almost any area of development – tourism, power generation, even the support of the police and the military … Kyrgyzstan depends heavily on the support of the international community.

This, however, has not always been welcomed with open arms.  There has also been some pointed comments, for example, about the high cost of consultants on various projects.  This has long been a bone of contention.

 

Unfortunately, there is not plenty of time to finish the postcard and … whatever.  I am running out of time and space so will have to pass on stories about next year’s parliamentary elections, or the collection of personalized data for the new biometric passports, or Tashkent’s apparent snub of Vladimir Putin who, apparently, requested that they resume gas supplies to Southern Kyrgyzstan … but was duly ignored.  Let me, however, end with a couple of stories:

One, that attracted a lot of attention, was about the sale of ancient golden jewelry at Sotheby’s in London for almost a quarter of a million dollars.  It seems that the items were discovered in the nineteenth century and handed down as family heirlooms – how they kept them from the authorities in the Soviet period when owning Gold was considered to be “speculation (a serious offence) is a moot point.  The vendors, however, got a document out of the Ministry of Culture and succeeded in getting them out of the country.  Unfortunately the document was not the necessary license and so they were taken out of Kyrgyzstan without permission … and hence the sale is considered illegal.  According to Kyrgyz legislation, the items should be returned and it is possible that the vendors are likely to face prosecution.

On a different note, there was an article on the internet about how many Uzbeks have been changing their names to sound more Kyrgyz – whilst another article reported how the Kyrgyz were changing their names to sound more Russian.  The piece de resistance, however, must go to the story about the Kyrgyz boy who was born at the start of Bill Clinton’s Presidency and was given the name Billclintonbek.  A copy of his passport was posted on social media and went viral … well, viral in terms of Kyrgyzstan.

 

 

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  Recently, for example, there has been the following postcards:

• On the slopes - Now that the snow has arrived, there’s lots of opportunities for skiing … be it for a day, a weekend ot a longer break – 30/11/14
• The first day of Winter - Here, December 1st is reckoned to be the first day of winter … but it isn’t so everywhere – 01/12/14
• UNESCO’s List of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity - Traditional Kyrgyz and Kazakh yurts have been inscribed into the list of mankind’s intangible culture and heritage – 02/12/14
• Taxi! - no Black cabs … no Yellow cabs … Bishkek’s taxis are an eclectic mix – 03/12/14
• A tale of two houses - both of them owned by Bishkek’s first Mayot – Ilya Terentiev …but they’ve enjoyed different fortunes over the years – 04/12/14
• P2P - A new employment statistic … well, new to me that is … but what is it? and what can it tell us about Kyrgyzstan? … food for thought – 05/12/14
• A Touch of Frost - Winter has definitely arrived, as temperatures plummet here in Bishkek  - 09/12/14
• Colonial Karakol - Many of the descriptions of Karakol draw attention to the colonial heritage of the city – especially the architecture – referring the the “gingerbread” colonial type houses. - 10/12/14
• Techosmotre - There are calls to bring back Kyrgyzstan’s version of the MOT Test – 11/12/14
• Biometric - New Passports for the Kyrgyz – 13/12/14

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