Postcard from Bishkek

Comets have been observed by humans staring at the night sky for thousands of years. Until the sixteenth century, they were usually considered bad omens of deaths of kings, or of coming catastrophes … or even interpreted as attacks by heavenly beings.

To a Brit like me, the classic example is the appearance of Halley’s comet in April 1066, seen and widely reported throughout Europe … and many people associated it with the succession crisis in England …

Until relatively recently, we didn’t really know much about comets, but in recent years our knowledge has expanded considerably.  Astronomers can now predict their orbits and predict their appearances and even if they are likely to produce a dramatic and  spectacular display.

According to some calculations, tonight the comet 209P/LINEAR, which was discovered only in 2004 may produce a meteor storm.  It is a small comet has a relatively short orbit and although it passed close to the sun only a few years ago, in 2009, it is due for another flyby in May 2014 … and on the night of Friday/Saturday 23rd/24th May, debris from the comet may pass close to the earth’s orbit, and may enter the atmosphere, showering the planet producing a fine display of meteors in the night sky.  The estimates vary between 100 and 400 shooting stars an hour.

Unfortunately, we probably won’t get to see it here in Central Asia … it should produce a better display the skies over North America.

I suppose some people may yet be tempted to see it as a harbinger of doom and destruction … what with wars and rumours of war; strange weather patterns; pestilence and disease … but, as it happens, (at least here in Kyrgyzstan), whilst there is still considerable cause for concern - there may still be a long way to go before we can echo Harold MacMillan’ “We;ve never had it so good”, but there seems to be some signs of things getting better … 

I suppose it could simply be a seasonal factor as we enter Spring – thing always look better in the Spring sunshine, That’s not say that the weather has been all good … the mornings in particular have been pretty cool – no, they’ve been distinctly chilly … I’ve taken to wearing a cardigan which can be removed because, by the afternoon, it warms up quite nicely.  The Ministry of Emergency situations which is responsible for weather forecasts has been issuing more storm warning notices – sent by SMS,  During the week, snow fell in Naryn … How, snow can fall at almost any time in the mountains and Naryn is quite high – over 2000 meters above sea level – but, even so, it’s unusual for snow to fall in Naryn during May.

As it happens, the snows in the mountains have started melting and the water level in the Toktogul Reservoir has started to rise … at long last.  Even so, there is a lot less water in the reservoir than there usually is at this time of the year – and hence Kyrgyzstan has decided not to export electricity this year in order to conserve supplies for the winter when electricity will be needed for heating.  One of the Deputies even went so far as to say that we should consider using water flow out of the reservoir as an instrument for dealing with the Uzbeks who still haven’t turned on the gas supply to Southern Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan’s reservoirs are not only used for power generation – the first reservoir, (Orto Tokoi outside Kochkor), was built to provide for irrigation.  Up in Issyk Kul, the irrigation system is important and Kumtor have apparently allocated funds to help renovate the system in the province.

At least that means that the mine is going to continue working.  There was a report in the middle of the week that they were closing down … withdrawing most of the staff and putting the mine into a special mode in order to concentrate on conservation and security.  That was quickly denied and we are told that the mine is working normally.

Something else that is working normally is the border with Tajikistan … that’s despite the problems that we have had recently.  President Atambaev made some comments during the week that indicate that he seems to think that these were “organized” … that someone had a separate agenda.  Work on repairing the damage caused in the most recent incidents is underway, but although the Tajiks are reported to have said that they will compensate for the damage – nothing has, so far, been forthcoming.  There was an incident across the border, down South in Khorog, but although the the incident was deemed insufficient for the Kyrgyz to closr the border – the facilities on the border have been strengthened.

On the economic front, there is also good news.  There’s a mission from the International Monetary Fund in town at the moment and they are making positive noises about the strength of the economy, the improvement seen last year (5.2% growth in GDP) and the forecast that growth is expected to be around 4% this year.  They have expressed willingness to support further reforms to support this – as have the Americans … and several other countries.

A really interesting report came from the business magazine Forbes which looked at 19 cities thoughout the former Soviet Union and assessed them as to how much they were “Business orientated” – considering issues such as: population, salary levels,  the tax burden, the visa regime, the status of Russian as a language and so forth.  Moscow came in first place, with Ashkabad bringing up the rear.  Bishkek came in 12th place.  Not brilliant … but quite impressive all the same and ahead of cities like Odessa, Donetsk, Dushanbe and Tashkent.

Taxes have been in the news during the week. The deputy Prime Minister made an interesting speech about the need to reform the tax base – which currently comes from only a few companies with trade and services contributing little to the budget – so that more people paid tax and the budget didn’t rely on just a few businesses.  What was, perhaps, the headline which said that “everyone should give the country a seventh part of their income” – that’s over 14%  but the basic rate of tax is just 10% …  that’s both personal and corporate – so, I wondered, where’s the other 4.2% coming from? – indirect taxes? …  

There was a report that suggested that Ministry of Finance is looking at introducing a Luxury Tax … but there were no details about what it would cover or how it would be administered.  We already have a “property tax” on buildings and vehicles but I suppose jewelry and large household appliances might be a logical target.  As I looked around the internet for details of other similar schemes around the world I was struck by two things: 1) most references seem to refer to “Super Tax” in the board game Monopoly, and 2) there were a number of references to attempts to introduce such a tax which were dropped – for example in the US – where it failed to bring in the expected returns.

Over the years it has been said that one way to improve the position is to simplify the system and lower the rates … the basic rate used to be, for example 20% and it was argued that lowering it to 10% would encourage people to come “out of the shadow”.  Administration is an issue which often seems to be overlooked as attention is concentrated on this headline rate.  So, I was intrigued to see a report which highlighted that even small and medium sized businesses spend something like 200 hours a year calculating and reporting tax … that’s five weeks – more than a whole month – of an accountant’s year spent on just tax affairs … and my impression, based on our experience, is that it’s an underestimate – just the VAT administration seems to take an inordinate amount of time and paperwork – although I have to admit that 1) I am not sure how much time it would occupy elsewhere around the world and 2) there are moves to try and simplify the system.

For example, there’s a growth in e-reporting – sending reports by email rather than having to take reports to the local tax office each month, (and it’s not just one visit each month).  There’s also been a number of Double Taxation Agreements concluded, and the latest being discussed being with the United Kingdom.

Perhaps more important was the revelation that export procedures have been simplified so that now instead of having to provide something like eight different documents, which was the norm a few years ago, it now requires just two.  It’s being hailed as a record breaking improvement making Kyrgyzstan a leading reformer – at least among the former former Soviet states.

As an aside, this is all part of the deregulation which has seen the number of licenses fall, in the last two years from 518 to just 101.

Mind you, another speech quoted “poor management” in government agencies as a more important factor in holding back the development of business – especially over the question of inspections.

Dordoi Market, the largest in Central Asia, is getting a fair amount of attention.  It’s been suggested that the market has basically ground to a standstill with very little cross border trade taking place.  This is one reason why the Association of Market Traders is so keen on Kyrgyzstan joining the Customs Union … the think that this will help reduce the fees and administration their business faces.  Over 90% of the country’s exports apparently go to Customs Union countries.

Although discussions on joining the Customs Union continue, and the roadmap is due to be discussed in the parliament and the agreement signed although it’s not yet clear when that will happen.  At least one pundit seems to think that the political decision has already been taken and the protests by those opposed to the move are not going to be successful.  Certainly President Atambaev has long been saying how important he considers the issue to be – this week repeating the argument that if we want to survive and to develop ,,, then we have to join up.  The Minister for the Economy made an interesting observation, saying that joining the World Trade Organization had made it possible to develop the trade sector of the economy and the hope was that joining the Customs Union woiuld help to develop the manufacturing base of the country.

One of the arguments against joining seems to be the potential affect on relations with China … although another Pundit seems to think that will be marginal.  The Chinese are already heavily involved in Kyrgyzstan (with something like 1500 grants over the next five years already in the pipeline).

.

There have been a few interesting small items of news during the week:

A new film has been released concentrating on the plight of “abandoned children” in the capital.  Indeed a bill has been proposed to the parliament which would increase penalties for those who default on alimony and Child support payments … which incidentally, also appears to cover children who default on supporting invalided parents.

One of the really “hot” issues in recent years has been the fate of Bishkek’s parks – and the fact that large areas appear to have been sold off as building plots.  It has contributed to the demise of at least a couple of the city’s mayors.  Well, it has now emerged that another park being built on – with trees being felled and construction work getting underway.  There seems to be confusion over who gave permissions and this is clearly going to be an ongoing story.

A surprise move came when Bishkek was declared a Capital of Islamic Culture by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation – even though, officially, Kyrgyzstan is a secular country.  This will involve a number of events, including the official opening ceremony, being held in the city.

The ever growing influence of Islam is not always easily accepted … with various officials, including the President, making what could be interpreted as critical remarks, moves against several “extremist” organizations and the news that several Kyrgyz citizens are “serving” as combatants in Syria.

The Defamation or False Accusation Law seems which parliament recently passed and the President signed last week continues to come in for criticism … with the US embassy weighing in with comments about how such laws need to be carefully drafted – an implied criticism.

At least there is good news in respect of the the crime rate … or is there.  Although a reduction in the numbers of crimes has been noted – one official took the view that they are simply being hidden … perhaps by the system of classification, recording and reporting.  I don’t suppose there is anything new in that … police forces all over the world are often criticized for “massaging” the figures.  So, it appears we are in line with “international practice”.

Last week I mentioned one measure which the Bishkek Police Commissioner had proosed to help reduce those crime figures … a ban on the sale of alcohol at night – from 10pm to 9am … well, there’s another proposal that has resurfaced once more – to introduce a Youth Curfew: to ban unaccompanied minors in the city after 10pm.

The one piece of news that really took me by surprise was actually not about Kyrgyzstan – but our neighbours Uzbekistan – who have apparently joined the International Rugby Board … I wonder when they will make their debut at Twickenham.

 

_______________________________________

Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

•  Tourism, Kyrgyzstan and Stereotypes - a personal response to a note about stereotypes associated with Tourism in Kyrgyzstan – 18/04/14
•  Shopokov -Both a hero and a village here in Kyrgyzstan – 19/04/14
• Traditional Kyrgyz costume – Men - It was odd to see the “birthday” of the quintessentially American garb – Blue Jeans – being commemorated being celebrated on a Russian website … so I took the opportunity to describe what the well dressed Kyrgyz nomad might have been wearing in 1850 when Levi Strauss received a patent for his durable workmen’s pants – 20/04/14
•  Diversity Day - Some thoughts about multi-ethnic, multi-cultural societies on the UN recognized Diversity Day – 21/04/14
• Casting votes - Britain went to the polls on Thursday in local and European elections, and I took the chance to look at Kyrgyzstan’s record when it comes to holding elections since Independence – 22/04/14
• Turtle Day - To commemorate World Turtle Day, a note about the Tortoises that are to be found here in Kyrgyzstan – 23/04/14

It is possible to follow me on Facebook, (where we also have specific pages for Celestial Mountains, the Silk Road Lodge, The Celestial Mountains Guesthouse in Naryn  and also links.kg, Kyrgyz Diary and Kyrgyzstan Visitki … and not forgetting ianbek), and also on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialM

 

Tags: