Postcard from Bishkek

I remember the announcement, back in 1992, of the first ever planet to be discovered outside our own Solar System. The discovery of Bellerophon, (or more properly 51 Pegasi b), was announced three years later on October 6th, 1995, and was the first planet to be discovered around a star which resembled our own sun – although Bellerophon, being a Gas giant, bears no relationship to planet Earth and is unlikely to produce any evidence of any Extraterrestrial life that we would recognize.

Whereas Astronomy has been making leaps and bounds in discovering things about the universe,  SETI, (the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), doesn’t seem to be be making quiet such dramatic progress despite the fact that the mathematicians tells us there are likely to be a myriad of intelligent civilizations out there waiting for “First Contact“.

The Drake equation, for example, is a mathematical equation used to estimate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.  Frank Drake was involved in SETI and in 1961 he was preparing for a conference and made a list of the various factors that might have an influence to bear  on the quest.  The result of his deliberations was the formula:

   N = R* . fp . ne . fe. fi . fc . L

where

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

OK – if that looks like gobbledegook, then it has to be acknowledged that there are some distinct problems with the formula – especially as most of the terms are are indeterminable and it seems to result in a final value for N which is anywhere between 1000 and 1000,000,000.  However, even 1000 might be considered impressive bearing in mind that the United Federation of Planets in Star Trek consists of just 15o member planets … even if they do support some 8000 colonies.

It is generally agreed, however, that, (unless we accept the postulations of various conspiracy theories, the claims made by the odd politician who says he has been contacted by aliens – and we’ve had some of those recently here in Bishkek, or the reports of UFO sightings – we have had a few of thise here in Kyrgyzstan, perhaps the most spectacular being the Crash landing at Devil’s Bridge), … SETI has not actually produced any concrete results in the form of actual evidence that “we are not alone“.

Still, I suppose, there is plenty of time for that …

In the meantime I have to admit to occasionally I am left wondering just exactly what planet am I on.

After two revolutions and various other disturbances over the years, I would like to think I was getting a nose for what is going on – a sort of sixth sense that might allow me to second guess what might happen. As I keep telling the kids and anyone else who will listen, unfortunately things don’t always work out how we want them to.

A couple of weeks ago, I agreed to have lunch on Wednesday with my publisher, (gosh, doesn’t that sound grand!)  Anyway, he called in the morning to ask where we would go to eat and suggested that Turkish cuisine might be nice.  No problem, I replied.  He suggested a couple of places, including the same place where we had lunch on April 7th, 2010 … a meal that was rather rushed and somewhat  ruined by events in the main Ala Too Square.  I tried to make a joke out of my reply, “… one revolution was enough thank you! … and I don’t feel like tempting fate.”  So we chose went to another restaurant and amongst the other topics of conversation over the lavash we even talked briefly about the possibility of further civil disorder or disruptions.   Nay … I said confidently … it’s getting late in the year – the temperature has already fallen considerable … nothing’s likely to happen until Spring.   We parted, arranging to meet again next week before he returned to the UK.

I got back to the office to get a call from the kids … “Where are you?” … “In the office” … “Good, don’t go out again!” … “Why not?” … “Check the news!” … Hmmmm ??? … OK … but I had to admit, that didn’t sound too good.

I logged onto the internet and scanned the news sites … and realised why they were concerned.  A rally to protest about the Kumtor Gold Mine and to call for its nationalization had turned nasty.  I began to see why the Prime Minister had recently made pointed comments, widely reported in the press both here and abroad, to the effect that the mine would not be nationalized … but that they would be held accountable to abide by the strictures of the law … which, of course, they would say that they already do so.

One of the strangest reports about the meeting seems to be that one of the politicians declared that the gold mine company belonged to the Jews.

Several hundred people – according to some reports two or three thousand – had marched on the White House.  (That used to be the Government House with the offices of the President, Prime Minister and other important dignitaries.  Recently, however, Government House and the Parliament have exchanged buildings … the main government offices are now housed in the building of the former Supreme Soviet and Jogorku Kenesh – and the Parliament now occupy the White House.)

One of the leaders speaking at the rally led the march, flanked by “heavies”, (bodyguards?), and according to some of the reports also led the crowd in climbing the fence into the grounds.  To be honest, when I first read the reports about this  I wasn’t sure if I believed it.  He is a fairly controversial character and is already facing charges … but leading a coup?  Then I saw the photographs and it seems fairly clear that he was indeed one of the first to climb the fence.

It seemed odd because as a Deputy he would have automatic access and be able to walk through the gates to join the forty odd deputies who were already inside.  It seems that is exactly what he says he was trying to do … to go to his “place of work” … but as the “heavies” and others in the crowd were not going to be allowed to accompany him … so he decided to climb the fence.  Another deputy, the vice speaker no less, claims he was’t participating in the rally, he was there simple as an observer in order to report back to the Speaker the demands of the crowd … he climbed the fence in order to escape the press of the crowd against the railings … only to get beaten up once inside the compound.

Anyway, the protesters tried to storm the building … twice.  Smoke bombs and stun grenades were thrown but the four hundred or so police, (come mounted on horseback and some with dogs), beat them back.   The deputy, himself, beat a hasty retreat to his vehicle … and drove off.  Apparently, or so they say, the police decided not to detain him … because, as a deputy, he has immunity from prosecution unless he relinquishes it or else the parliament strips him of it.

There was a lot of confusion … Twitter and Facebook saw rapid fire messages … several of the news websites were unobtainable because they were receiving thousands of hits, (one page receiving 41000 hits in ten minutes) … and, even s0, some of the reports on them painted a confused and contradictory picture:  Shots were fired … two people had been shot … three people … there were ten people with injuries … or twelve … a politician claimed he’s been shot in the leg … one report said he had shot himself … another that he hadn’t been shot at all … no policeman were injured … all but two of the casualties were police … and so on.

It was all so confused that when I logged onto the webcamera that looks over the main square I couldn’t help but ask myself if it was Orson Welles and War of the Worlds all over again …  no crowds, no sign of disruption.  I went out into the street and all seemed normal … true, there were lots of people, and quite a few of the heavies with an “athletic build”, dark clothes and sun glasses … but no sign of anything untoward.  The most “scary” moment was when two grey sedan cars vied to occupy the same parking space at the kerbside … one backing in and the other driving forward, both blaring their horns at one another … That’s my spot!!!  … No!, It’s mine!!! … the one driving forward got it … presumably because the driver wasn’t having to look over his shoulder whilst manoeuvring.

Some of the banks and exchange offices closed and sent their staff home – I told mine that if they wanted to go then I wouldn’t hold it against them … they looked at each other, shrugged their shoulders as if to say “not again – been there, done that” … and … decided to stay.

The heavies were out in force overnight.  The vigilante squads of civil militia rallied to support the police … and security alerts were raised throughout the city.

As it happens, both the President and Prime Minister were out of the country at the time, but it was announced that the President would be urgently returning on Thursday.

Although some commentators considered that the move had been long planned as an “attempted coup” which failed … or that the organizers were frustrated at the lack of support and “lost their nerves”, being carried away by their emotions into drastic or misguided actions, the general opinion seems to be that it was all part of a cynical powerplay by some of the leading politicians facing investigations for corruption … in order to detract attention away from their other woes … better to be a political prisoner than a criminal one.

Was it really an attempted coup?  Well, the authorities seemed to think that there was a question to answer and there is video recorded at the protest which show the politician declaring that he would “replace this government” and “occupy” the White House before leading the crowd to the gates of the building.   I don’t speak Kyrgyz but I am told that it was quite clearly a call to enter the building and sit in the offices and stay there if necessary … Anyway, three leading politicians have been detained for questioning – in addition to any other questions that some of them might face in relation to other allegations of corruption.    If they are convicted, it seems that they could face anything from twelve to twenty years in prison,

That hasn’t stopped protests, especially in the south where the politicians have their power base, calling for their release.  One leading politician said that there would be two hundred thousand supporters gathering to protest but one meeting held on Thursday attracted just twenty, another brought together several hundred protesters and about two hundred blocked the main Bishkek-Osh highway and someone apparently suggested holding the deputy minister of the interior as a hostage.   Another rally, however, was suddenly called off.  The party to which the three arrested politicians has called for their release … the Prime Minister travelled South on a working visit, (although that ostensibly had nothing to do with recent events – he was attending the opening of a new school and a new clinic as well as visiting the a heating plant),  and the protesters in the south have sent a delegation North to meet the President … The rumour mill is active and speculation as to what will happen next is rife.  (Personally, I am not sure that much will happen …).

There have been lots of comments about how people don’t want any more demonstrations and  as the Ministry of the Interior pointed out, they don’t have the authority to prevent properly organized formulated rallies.  One public figure, however, has said that the law is too lenient in this respect and allows anyone to organize a “meeting”, and several people have opined that there is a difference between genuine and legitimate protest and the “mob rule”.

One journalist has commented that this sort of “ugliness” always seemed to be “just below the surface” in Kyrgyzstan – but I can’t help wondering if it really represents what the people think or is simply a manufactured sentiment.  Under previous regimes there was genuine discontent which provided the embers for various forces were to fan into a conflagration …  but at the moment there is just the hot air trying to fan a discontent which is not yet sufficient to provide the necessary wherewithal for a third revolution.

Whatever the original intentions of the protest organizers, (to attempt a coup … or not), it eventually turned out as a protest meeting that got out of hand … and we’ve plenty of those over the course of time and all over the world.  Although the events were big news here in Kyrgyzstan, (which is, after all, understandable), and received a fair amount of coverage in the Russian media, (… and aroused some concern at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs who are keeping the situation under observation … ) it seems to have escaped the attention of editors in the Western media, (the only accounts I have seen were in USA Today and a short piece on the CBS website which concentrated on the Kumtor connection), so perhaps there were just more important stories in the world at the time which demanded coverage, (Syria, American Presidential debates, etc.) … or maybe it just wasn’t really big news.
So, all in all … although we have our ups and down and the odd moment of excitement which has brought drama into our lives, (just as, for that matter, is happening in other parts of the world), … there hasn’t been any news with the import of the discovery of a new planet or extra-terrestrial life during the week  … and life carries on.  As it happens, although that was the main news of the week, it wasn’t the only news.  Her are a few more snippets …

One of the strangest reports about the meeting seems to be that one of the politicians declared that the gold mine company belonged to the Jews.  In another twist to the Kumtor saga, another politician – one of the senior political figures in the country – floated a new idea at a rally just before the weekend … (i.e. after all the troubles).  He seemed to agree that nationalization was not an option (… it would cost too much!), but said that the country had not received what was fairly due from the arrangement and that the management could, should?, be handed over to the state.

It wasn’t for example the only protest that took place on Wednesday … the ongoing dispute about the operations of banks and microcredit organizations also boiled over on Wednesday with protesters storming the offices of some of the microcredit companies.  It seems unfortunate that this takes place whilst former President Otunbaeva has seized upon microfinance as one way of financing development in the country along the model of, for example, of the system in Bangladesh.

The number of arrests of people on charges of corruption continues to rise … with two cases reported this week involving bribes of USD750 and USD6000.  Apparently, the accused were all caught red handed in the act of accepting the money.  A search of one of the offices found even more money which, for some reason, the official couldn’t explain.  Somewhat ironically, one of the cases involved officials in the Judicial Training Centre and the bribe was allegedly intended for falsifying the results of testing candidates for positions as a judge.

Whilst we are on the subject of crime … there has been a certain amount of uncomfortable wriggling among the more liberal or libertarian members of the twittering classes when an article appeared  pointing out that someone caught rustling sheep could be sentenced to years in prison but some pursuing the traditional practice of ala kachuu and kidnapping a bride was unlikely to even be prosecuted yet alone punished.

 

One of the interesting things is the extent to which the government and other authorities have accepted and adapted to new technologies, especially the internet.  The GKNB, (the successor security service of the KGB), for example, are charged with searching the internet for examples of extremist content.  Virtually ever ministry and agency seems to have it’s own website and I am often amazed when I come across a new one. Whereas I sort of expected the government and ministries to have their own websites.  Whereas, for example, I know that the  CIA and MI6 may have their own websites I was somewhat surprised to find that the GKNB has one …  Well, they had one, that is.  Apparently they forget to pay the fee for the domain and it has been suspended!

 

A report published by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) together with “HelpAge International” suggests that Kyrgyzstan share a problem with a number of other countries, that of an increasingly elderly population.  They say that the number of people over 60 will triple by 2050.  At the moment, this group makes up something like 8% of the population.

 

We have been warned that fuel prices – petrol and diesel oil will go up this month, but assured that electricity tarrifs won’t.   Apparently the Kazakhs aren’t too keen to supply us with coal, and after last year’s furore over the “radioactive coal, I don’t suppose anyone can blame them.   I haven’t seen any news about the Kazakh supply of gas but the Uzbeks have promised to supply Osh and the south with Gas, even though they are upset about the plans to build hydroelectric dams on the Naryn River.  In theory we should be well off in terms of electricity with all the hydroelectricity that we generate and it should get better when the additional capacity comes on line.  There are plans to export electricity to as far afield as Afghanistan and Pakistan but at the moment most of the electricity we produce is used for domestic consumption – about 87%.

 

Hopefully, amongst all of this gobbledegook there is enough information to give you some idea of life here in Bishkek, put the new planets discovered into context and make sense of the equation.

 

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

• Caffeine curves - It’s not really clear if World Coffee Day was 29th September or 1st October; different communities commemorate it on different days, so…  so much for World Coffee Day.  Anyway, I took the opportunity to review the place of Coffee in contemporary Kyrgyzstan.
• V is for … vegetarian - likewise, World Vegetarian Day seemed an appropriate moment to take a look at that old canard that it it can be difficult to travel in Central Asia, (and hence in Kyrgyzstan), “if you are not a passionate meat eater”.
• Bridge on the River Chui - Once a month I take a trip up to visit our Guest House in Naryn and the road takes us past the Y. Danlarov Bridge just outside Tokmok, and I have often wondered … “Who was Yunus Danlarov?”
• Dubovniy Park – Oak Park - A look at one of the city centre parks in Bishkek
• Any man’s death diminishes me … a rather belated post about World Suicide Prevention Day (which was on September 10th), prompted by some news about suicide rates both here and abroad.
• Where have all the teachers gone? Friday was Teacher’s Day, but there’s a shortage of teachers in Kyrgyzstan’s schools.

It is now possible to follow me on Facebook, (where I have specific pages for Celestial Mountains and ianbek … and also links.kg and Kyrgyz Diary), and on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).

 

 

 

 

Tags: Expat, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards