Retired numbers
Will we ever know what happened?
In the States there is a sports tradition of “retiring a number” for a player who has left the sport and either following an outstanding career, or had a promising career cut short through injury, or died prematurely under tragic circumstances. No-one on that team can wear it again, (except under special circumstances).
I don’t know if airlines “retire” flight numbers – but I suspect that there are a number of likely candidates: Flight 103 being one of them.
PanAm flight 103 was a transatlantic flight from London Heathrow to JFK airport in New York which was operated by the Pan American airline … and on 21st December, 1988 a bomb placed on board the Boeing 747 flying the route exploded, ripping the nose from the body of plane which then disintegrated; the wreckage falling on the small Scottish town Lockerbie … killing 270 people; all the passengers and crew on board and a further 11 people on the ground.
The flight represents the worst aviation incident and the deadliest terrorist incident to have ever occurred in the United Kingdom.
In fact, it could have been worse … despite the fact that it was just before Christmas, the plane was only about half full and there were a number of people who were supposed to have been on board who missed the flight for one reason or another. One had actually checked in and passed through customs and immigration control, but arrived at the gate too late to board the aircraft.
A massive investigation was initiated and after three years, two operatives in the Libyan security services were being accused of being responsible for planting the bomb. It took several more years before the Libyan government was persuaded to hand them over for trial in a special court convened in the Netherlands – which eventually acquitted one of the accused but found the other guilty and sentenced him to life imprisonment. He was later, controversially released on compassionate grounds apparently suffering from cancer – and died in 2012.
Now, I see, there is a fair amount of discussion about whether or not he was simply a scapegoat and that someone else may well have been the guilty party …
The case raises all sorts of questions: who knew what?, and when?, the role played by government travel warnings – the situation tightened up quite a lot after this event; what was the role played by different agencies before and after the event?; what pressure was brought to bear – on Libya?, on the investigation?, on the court system; and so on. … I can’t help wondering if and when we will ever know the truth. I am sure that the conspiracy theories will abound and investigative journalists will be kept busy.
I am not sure that we will ever get to the bottom of some other cases either – with or without the help of investigative journalists. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, all government agencies need to work better with the press to help get their message across – but, apparently, there’s a lack of people with the necessary skills and knowledge … which I suppose shouldn’t come as too big a surprise because, according to him, many department heads can’t even tell the difference between a “state secret” and “classified information”.
One thing that does seem to be getting across, however, is the idea that Democracy involves compromise, or as the late British politician, R.A. Butler, once put it – “Politics is the art of the possible”.
For example, President Atambaev, (who is well aware of the need to use the media to get his message across, and seems to be quite skilled at it), held a large Press Conference to review the first two years of his term of office. In it he let slip that IF this had been a “Presidential Democracy” then the government might well look quite different as there were several Ministers who “did not suit” him … but as it was a “Parliamentary Democracy” there was a need for discussion … and compromise. As it happens, in his opinion, the government is working well and showing signs of making positive progress.
In some ways, he may be right in that … some of the economic indicators do look promising. Take construction, for example, currently worth some three million dollars in Bishkek alone, with over a hundred high rise projects underway.
Mind you, the World Bank have been a little critical … drawing attention to the “high social costs” which present a huge burden on the public budget, yet according to the Ministry of Finance, next years budget will see an increase in social expenditure.
There’s also been an interesting survey emanating from Russia which says that there are considerable “political” risks for foreign investors – which were actually rated as “high”… based on factors such as the internal stability of the regime risks, external risks stability of the regime, the risks of leading sector or sectors of the economy, the degree of liberal legislation for investors, transparency and stability of the “game rules” for investors. I am not sure what aspect of this report was most surprising – the conclusion … or the fact that it emanated from Russia.
Russia is one of the biggest foreign investors in Kyrgyzstan, along with Canada and Switzerland. I suppose that the Canadian investment is largely comprised of the Kumtor Gold mine. I suspect that they would agree that there is a high risk associated with investing in Kyrgyzstan … as we are awaiting the results of discussions between the government and the management of Centerra which are promised by 23rd December. The President has yet again stated that the demand by the Parliament to increase the Kyrtgyz stake in the joint venture to 67% as “impractical”. The Canadians have said that if the country insists on an unfair deal or expropriation then they will seek international arbitration = which would effectively mean freezing the 2009 agreement until the case is heard and settled. In the meantime, however, the company has taken great pains to stress that production has not only continued but it has increased its projections for future production. The employees have written a letter to the President asking him to ensure that production is allowed to continue unhindered … something I am sure he will try and do as the Ministry of Finance has admitted that loss of income for the state budget in the event of the deal collapsing would be disastrous.
Another example of the rise of compromise was that the Chairman of the Kyrgyz-Russian joint Commission has said that Kyrgyz accession to the Customs Union will also be a compromise. That must come as a welcome relief to the President and others who have been saying that the present “roadmap” is too one sided. The President was even reported to have “rejected” the proposals currently on the table. What he did say, however, was that Kyrgyzstan would not accept the current conditions as they did not address the needs of Kyrgyzstan as a country.
One of the criticisms of the Customs Union that the “liberals” sometimes put forward, is that it is step back in time, and one more step to the recreation of the Soviet Union. Actually, that might not be such a good line argument to use in future if the latest data from Gallup is anything to go by. It’s almost the anniversary of the dissolution of the USSR – twenty two years ago … and the asked respondents in several former Soviet countries what they thought of the breakup. Of the countries included in the survey, only a quarter of the respondents considered that it had been “Beneficial” and only in Turkmenistan was there a majority of this opinion, (62%). Just over half, (51%), felt that it had been “Harmful” … and in several of the countries there was a clear majority that considered this to be the case. That included Kyrgyzstan where only 16% felt it had been Beneficial and 66% that it was Harmful.
The statistics are a bit more complicated – aren’t they always? It seems, for example, that when looking at different sectors of the population, young people are more positive about the changes than those who grew up in the Soviet system.
I am not sure what the migrants currently working in Russia would think. They have recceived a lot of attention in the press this week, partly because Thursday was International Migrants Day. It’s been pointed out, for example, that most have no heath provision as insurance is voluntary and without the proper documentation they are not entitled to use the Russian healthcare facilities. The controversial Deputy in the Russian Duma, Zhirinovsky, has proposed that, as migrants don’t pay Russian Social Taxes, then remittances which they send to their families back home should be taxed …
Migration is, of course, a double edged sword – Kyrgyzstan receives foreign migrant workers as well as sending people abroad. It was reported during the week that something like 10000 work permits have been issued – mostly for Chinese workers – and it turns out that many of these are traders in Kyrgyzstan’s markets and … sin of sins … not paying taxes – especially those working in the massive Dordoi market. One agency has compared lists of work permit holders and those who have taken out “patents” – basically a registration which involves paying a one-off fee which then absolves them of all their tax liabilities – and discovered that some 270 had somehow passed “under the radar” and weren’t paying any tax. The matter has been sent for further investigation.
The President has called upon the youth of the country not to consider going to Russia to work – where they will end up in low paid service industry jobs, but to consider finding jobs at home or, assuming they are suitably qualified, going further afield in order to obtain “good”, well paid jobs. In the meantime, he has declared a new aim – to create a new elite of educated youth – the future of the country. This week also the establishment of a new day of leadership development with a variety of activities.
We also leaned that the education sector has received some 83.5 million dollars in investments this year … and that there are 9331 foreign students (mainly from Kazakhstan, India and Russia followed by Turkey, Pakistan and Tajikistan), bringing with them some 80 million dollars in fees – not to mention the incidental expenditures such as living expenses.
In addition we were told that 32 of the kindergartens that were privatized have now been returned to municipal control … with 50 criminal cases initiated on the basis that there might have been irregularities with the privatization process. One school which is said to be underused is to be turned into a home for orphans.
Another project that has could be said to have been rejected is the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. The proposed plan was not exactly but sent back for reworking, “as they did not address the needs of Kyrgyzstan as a country”. It isn’t yet a “dead duck” but the Kyrgyz are looking for some amendments. In the meantime, the development of a Russia-Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan route is being actively discussed and may be favourably as it would help to link the Northern and Southern parts of the country.
Another priority is the proposed alternative North-South road, just one of seven major road projects underway at the moment. One of them that has been in the news this week is the by-pass around the enclaves … which was thrust into the limelight once more as tempers flared between two ethnic groups and the road was blocked. (As it happens, things are calm and look like being sorted out – even if it took a visit by one of the Vice Prime Ministers to enter in discussions with various groups).
As it happens, there seems to be quite a bit of interest in helping to complete these road projects – from China, of course, but Japan has also been showing an interest.
There has also been a lot of interest from China, Russia and Turkey in what will happen to the Manas Airport, following the closure of the Transit Base. It seems that there have been rumours that he has come to some agreement over some arrangement with the Turks which might allow the Americans to continue their presence … but he denies this. In fact, he said the expression of interest from China was the most prospective and realistic – although we have yet to hear what they have to propose.
As usual, there’s been a lot more than I time or space to mention:
- President Atambaev, while commenting about saying Namaz, also managed to criticize various Religious leaders who “put themselves above god” … ;
- He also thinks that there are likely to further attempts to destabilize the situation in the country, but with agreements, including ones for the supply of modern arms from Russia, that Kyrgyzstan will have a fully equipped and restructured army by 2017 – when his term of office comes to an end;
- Concerning the construction of the Kabar Ata hydroelectric power station, he said that Uzbekistan has nothing to worry about … pointing out that the plans were drawn up in Tashkent during Soviet times … and will ensure water and energy sustainability … Furthermore, the Upper Naryn cascade of power stations should not affect water flows in the River downstream;
- In the lead up to the New Year holidays, campaigns have been announced in both Bishkek and Osh to control prices and prevent price hikes;
- Chinese investors have expressed an interest in redeveloping the production of silk in Kyrgyzstan;
- There are something like 3.2 million internet users in Kyrgyzstan- most of them (72%) in Bishkek;
… to mention just a few of the stories that have appeared during the week.
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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out. This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:
- What’s in a name – The Silk Road Lodge - Just why did we choose the name Silk Road Lodge for our hotel in Bishkek? – 15/12/13
- Happy Birthday, Ludwig!!! – Not everyone recognizes Beethoven’s Birthday – but why is it important to commemorate such things? – 16/12/13
- Jerboa - It may look like a cartoon character – but several species of this rodent can be found in Kyrgyzstan – 17/12/13
- International Migrants Day - On international Migrants Day, I took a look at this complex issue that has considerable importance for Kyrgyzstan – 18/12/13
- Chichkan – Mouse - A Mouse is not just a rodent … it’s also the name of a picturesque valley that cuts through the mountains as part of the Bishkek-Osh highway – 19/12/13
- Felix Dzerzhinsky and the Cheka - There a statue hidden away in downtown Bishkek to the founder of the Cheka, the forerunner of the KGB – 20/12/13
Incidentally, this week ianbek.kg passed a milestone with its 50000th visitor since we started keeping track back in September 2010. They have come from 188 different countries and territories … and although I appreciate that it’s not that great a number – many other sites achieve thousands of visitors a day – and also that most of them have simply come as a result of a Google search and do not linger long, but it still represents a landmark.
It is possible to follow me on Facebook, (where we also have specific pages for Celestial Mountains, the Silk Road Lodge, The Celestial Mountains Guesthouse in Naryn and also links.kg, Kyrgyz Diary and Kyrgyzstan Visitki … and not forgetting ianbek), and also on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).
Bishkek