Postcard from Bishkek

The week that has just passed has been like marking time in limbo as we await the referendum.

When thinking of a theme for this week’s postcard I toyed with the idea of “Waiting for Godot” … the trouble is that in Beckett’s play, Godot never arrives.  The government is intent that the Referendum should and will happen.

There seems to be some controversy, still, about how the arrangements will work out in practice … and there are still some calls to postpone the exercise, but the majority opinion seems to favour holding the referendum, come what may.  For the Interim Government and the international community, this is probably to do with the need to legitimize the current regime, and amongst the general population it reflects the desire and the need to forge some sort of stability for the future after all the upheaval we have been experiencing … and that we are, to a certain extent at least, still experiencing.

The violence of ten days ago may have paused – I won’t say stopped, (although we all hope that it has), because there are still isolated incidents, including what seems to be a large fires being reported throughout the country, and many observers still think that the volcano of emotions is just lying dormant and may erupt once more given the right circumstances.

In fact the week started quietly … Saturday and Sunday were days of apparent inactivity, although the scene was set for the basic themes of the week:

• refugees started to return home, and this process continued (slowly) throughout the week;
• the authorities in the south worked on the removal of barricades (some forcefully), tidying up the mess created by the mayhem and preparing for the reconstruction, renovation and rebuilding of the cities and the infrastructure;
• accusations against the military and the police about their conduct, (both during and after the unrest);
  • the distribution of aid and involvement in looting what little there is left to steal;
  • the search for those “responsible” for creating disorder, which we are now told involved an “unholy” alliance of the Bakievs, criminal gangs, especially those in drug trafficking and Islamic fundamentalist terrorists from groups such as the IMU, (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), and Hizb-ut-Tahrir, (who are proscribed here as a terrorist organization even if they are not everywhere in the West);
  • the search for weapons, which has resulted in some successes, (but raises the question about how many are still out there);
• criticism and complaint about the way the media has been reporting events – the BBC may have been able to find only one small camp housing a small number of displaced Kyrgyz compared to the huge number of Uzbeks who have fled their homes, but the locals are affronted by the way they are being portrayed as “monsters”.- even if there were some “monsters” who roamed the streets of southern Kyrgyzstan ten days ago committing atrocities, that doesn’t seem to be a fair reflection of the typical Kyrgyz …
• rumours about further outbreaks of violence and disorder.  The 22nd June had been mentioned in the leaked phone conversations supposedly between Maxim Bakiev and his uncle, Janysh … and many people, shops and businesses decided that caution was the better part of valour and they prepared by stripping the shelves and opening late – just in case.  In fact the day passed quietly.
• in fact rumours abounded … about things like mass gatherings of youth … there were even rumours reported that Roza Otunbaeva had married a Southern official and given the city of Osh over to him.   In what struck me as being almost a flashback to Stalinist times, where people learned to be careful what they said … and who they said it to … passing on these rumours seems to have managed to get some people arrested as provocateurs … one girl apparently said that she was merely repeating what she had read on the internet, and there is an awful being reported on the internet, especially in the “forums” …  or for stirring up racial hatred, depending on the particular circumstances.  Even I have thought to myself that I had better be careful what I say.

Amidst all this, preparations for the referendum continued apace.

Monday saw an open meeting arranged by the International Business Council on the topic “Preparing for the Constitutional Referendum”.  The meeting had been planned for last week but had, understandably, had to be postponed because of the turn of events down south.  The idea was for businessmen to raise questions , and for the Interim Government to explain, about the draft of the proposed new constitution and how the proposed new constitution would impact on their businesses.  Most of the discussion seemed to center on two themes … the process of nationalization and the selection of judges.  The one question that wasn’t asked, and to my mind it was the most important question: “What happens if there isn’t a resounding “Yes” vote?”.

I can understand why nobody wanted to ask the question.  In fact, there are just over two million people eligible to vote and everything is being done to try and bring out the vote.

• Bishkek saw a helicopter fly over dropping leaflets encouraging everyone to unite and participate by voting;
• mobile companies sent SMS messages to all their subscribers appealing for them to vote;
• ballot boxes and ballot papers were distributed to polling stations;
• arrangements were made for people to be able to vote at any polling station, anywhere in the country, not just where in the locality where they live;
• “mobile” ballot boxes were being distributed to take to the refugees wherever they are;
• arrangements were announced to enable people to vote even if they had lost their passports in the upheavals, using other forms of documentation, or even without needing any documentation if they were known to at least two of the officials at the polling station;
• arrangements for voting by citizens living abroad were established;
• arrangements for early voting were implemented.

There is a lot at stake … and a lot of hope vested in the result of this referendum.  A survey carried out here in Bishkek reported that 70% of the respondents intended to vote and only 10% saying they wouldn’t.  Just under three quarters supported the decision to hold the referendum and not postpone it and a similar figure were “sure” that a “Yes” vote ” in the referendum would bring stability to the country”.

Those who know me, and my background as a teacher of Mathematics and Statistics, will understand that I normally treat such surveys with caution … the problem with statistics is that they tend to raise more questions, more issues and more controversies than they answer.  For example, this survey was conducted here in Bishkek, (at fourteen points around the city), and although Bishkek is the capital city and, in many respects, resembles the mind, heart and spirit of the country … it is a multicultural city rather than a mono-cultural community that is found in towns and villages throughout the country in which distrust and enmity can flourish.  The survey results give no indication of how the rest of Northern Kyrgyzstan will vote, yet alone the troubled South.

Some people in the South have said that voting in a referendum was the last thing on their minds given the trauma they had just lived through.

I like the optimism expressed in the survey results … but I can’t help reminding myself that “life isn’t always that simple …”

There are plenty of vested interests in what happens here in Kyrgyzstan … and, if we are to believe the various analyses  disorder … ranging from Bakiev, his family and associates; the interim government – both individuals and the variety of political parties – the number registered for the upcoming parliamentary elections is already over a hundred; the various and disparate ethnic groupings which go to make up the population – including those separatists who suggest autonomy for the south and even assimilation by Uzbekistan; the mafia/organized crime, especially those involved in the lucrative drug smuggling trade; Islamic fundamentalists; the international community (whether Kyrgyzstan’s neighbours with their own concerns about “exporting revolution” including China; countries further afield such as America with its base at Manas, or Russia who sees Central Asia as part of its sphere of influence; Regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the signatories of the Collective Security Treaty, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,  and, of course, the kaleidoscope of donor organizations); not to mention the “little” people, (as BP might have described them), the ordinary people with no other ambition than being able to get on with their daily lives.  Each has their own “take on events”, their own priorities … and their own “agenda”.  Each will bring pressure to bear to benefit and further their own cause.  In some cases that could be helpful … but in others … who can tell?

Anyway, it looks as if the referendum, unlike Godot, will indeed arrive … but will it live up to people’s hopes and expectations.  Will it be the “cure all”, that brings stability to the country?, peace and harmony to divided communities?

The old Chinese proverb has it that “the longest journey begins with a single step.”  The referendum may not be the first step at the start of Kyrgyzstan’s journey … but it is one such step … and, as I see it, an important step … but that is exactly what it is … just that … a step … not a panacea.

A it happens, I am going to miss it … I am going for my monthly visit to the guesthouse in Naryn.  I don’t have vote here, but even if I did, then I could still vote in Naryn.  I did wonder about calling off the trip, “just in case”, but I have already put off two other trips “just in case” and on both occasions the day passed without any major incident.  As it happens, think that Sunday will also pass without major incident … (Oh … how I do hope that I don’t end up having to eat those words!!!).

Tags: Expat, Interesting_Times, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards