Climate change and Global warming
These two terms are often used interchangeably although they have quite distinct meanings.
The world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux. In the past the world’s climate has changed due to natural causes, but more recently the term “climate change” has been used to refer to the changes which have been identified since the early 1990′s and can be attributed to the impact of human activities.
“Global Warming” refers to the documented increase of the earth’s surface since the middle of the twentieth century, based upon worldwide temperature records which have been kept since the 1880s. It is estimated that the average surface temperature has risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius in that time and projections of various climate models suggest that this increasing trend will continue – with the global temperature rising up to another six degrees warmer – with implications of the changing climate patterns and with major implications on the impact this will have on human lifestyles and activity.
The situation is not “clear cut”, however, and there are skeptics who cast doubt on some of the predictions based on the fact that the world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux; that it is difficult to identify and ascertain with any certainty the effects of individual elements within the complex weather systems and the difficulty in predicting their possible future interaction variety as shown by the variety of different results produced by different models.
There is, however, evidence to suggest that something is happening and that human activities are contributing to some extent to the changes being observed.
Evidence
Some of the indicators of Climate Change and Global Warming are:
- Records of weather statistics show that global temperatures have risen: by over 0.7C in the last 300 years and at least 0.5C of this warming occurred during the 20th century. Most of this change occurred during the periods from 1910 to 1940 and from 1976 onwards
- Four out of five of the warmest years ever recorded were in the 1990′s
- The 1990′s was the warmest decade of the last millennium with 1998 being the warmest year globally since records began in 1861, and 1999 was the warmest year on record in the UK
- January-June 2002 was the warmest start to a year in the northern hemisphere
- The total number of cold days (where the average temperature was under 0C) has fallen from between 15 and 20 per year prior to the twentieth century, to around 10 per year in recent years
- 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years of daily measurements – 26 days above 20C
- Sea levels are rising globally, (by between 0.1 and 0.2 meters over the last 100 years)
- The arctic sea ice is thinning
- Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since the late 1960′s by around 10%
- Mountain glaciers in non polar regions have retreated significantly during the 20th century
- There is evidence of more precipitation in large parts of the World – an increase of 0.5-1% per decade in many mid and high level areas of the northern hemisphere and there has been a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events
- In Asia and Africa there has been an increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the last few decades
There are observable changes in the composition of the atmosphere. About 99% of the earth’s atmosphere comprises of just two gases: nitrogen and oxygen, the remaining one per cent is made up of a number of trace elements which are thought to have a major effect on weather patterns, such as carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Water vapour and Halocarbons. All of these have seen increases in the last century.
Carbon dioxide can be produced by burning fossil fuels and deforestation reduces the plant stock which helps to reduce the balance between production and elimination of the gas in the atmosphere. (The capital city of Bishkek has a population of approximately one million people with over 200,000 vehicles. Many of these are old, in poor working condition and fuel inefficient, contributing to the fact that Bishkek is thought to produce half of the country’s Carbon Dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. )
Burning fossil fuels also contributes to the increase of Nitrous Oxide, as does the increased use of Nitrogen based fertilizers and the operation of sewerage plants. Methane is produced by bacteria and an increase in livestock farming and growing rice has led to an increase in Methane levels in the atmosphere. Perhaps the best known source of Halocarbons are the CFC gases uses in aerosols and refrigeration units. Water vapour is perhaps the odd-man-out in that human activity seems to have little impact on levels in the atmosphere … the amount of water vapour present in the atmosphere depends more on the temperature of the air than anything else, and as the atmosphere warms up, so it can hold more water vapour.
Impact
Although a small country, Kyrgyzstan is prone to mudflows, landslides and floods, and certain regions also suffer droughts and water shortages. Although these are not new phenomena, people also notice a range of climatic changes that they claim they have never experienced before, such intense storms causing considerable damage to property and crops. In the past, folklore has variously linked these to rocket launches from Baikonur, Chinese Atomic tests at Lop Nur, operations of the high altitude Kumtor Gold Mine, fallout from burning oil wells during the Gulf War and, of course, to Global Warming.
Amongst the potential impacts of Climate Change on both the natural environment and on human society, (lifestyles and activities), are significant. These include:
Rises in sea levels across the world – including an increase in flooding of many lowland areas … with implications for many small island systems and land use and management – especially in coastal regions, (which contain thirteen of the fifteen largest cities in the world). Being a landlocked country, it might be considered that Kyrgyzstan would not be affected by such a change, but although there would be no direct impact on the country, there could/would be secondary, indirect, implications for the country.
Reduction of the polar ice-caps, (contributing to the rises in sea level), and mountain glaciers. Although a 1994 guide book to Kyrgyzstan says that many of the glaciers were advancing, more recent evidence indicates that they are, actually, in the process of retreating and a joint report from the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) says that during the twentieth century the area under glaciers in the Tien Shan range decreased by 25-35%. Another report, (from the Technical University of Dresden, issued in 2005), commenting on the Northern Tien Shan where the Kyrgyz and Kazakh borders meet, says that the glacier melt in the region corresponds with temperature changes with only a “little decrease” occurring in the period 1960-1975, but increasing significantly from 1975 onwards when the glaciated area decreased by 35-40 percent. The situation is spread uniformly throughout the country. For example glaciers on the Southern slopes of mountain ranges are disappearing at a greater rate than those on other slopes. The retreat of the glaciers will almost certainly have a number of serious effects on the environment, agriculture and economy as the glaciers of the Tien Shan provide the key source of water for rivers and mountain streams which in turn feed irrigation systems and reservoirs used for hydro-electricity production, (not just in Kyrgyzstan but across the whole region of Central Asia), and water supply for the urban centres such as Bishkek. The year 2008, in particular saw a dramatic fall in the water levels at the strategic Toktogul Reservoir leading to “electricity rationing” being introduced.
The growth of crops depends heavily on suitable weather conditions and seasonal variations … the temperature, amounts and distribution of sunshine and precipitation. The traditional range of vegetation and crops grown in a region may have to change to meet new circumstances. There may be an increased need for water resources for irrigation for crops. New weather patterns may also result in changing distributions of agricultural pests such as locusts and aphids – both a potential problem in Kyrgyzstan.
A change in the distribution of insects might also lead to health issues, such as changes in the incidence and distribution of insect borne diseases such as malaria and Encephalitis. In 2008, for example, Kyrgyzstan saw a rise in the incidence of malaria which was hitherto a rare occurrence, especially in the Northern parts of the country. There may be other health implications as people have to adapt to more extreme temperatures and different rainfall patterns, as droughts and flooding cause damage to infrastructure such as water and sewerage systems, and so on.
The impacts of climate change won’t affect just humans – they will have implications on the natural wildlife as well, as habitats change and unusual species migrate to new areas. Migratory birds, many of which pass through Kyrgyzstan, may find that their traditional migratory patters are no longer appropriate. Plants, (trees, shrubs, etc.) will also have to adapt to meet the new environmental conditions. It is suggested that one of the possible causes leading to increased mudslides and landslides in Kyrgyzstan could well be deforestation.
There is a trend towards the development of renewable forms of energy, some of which offer strong potential for Kyrgyzstan, such as: Wind farms, solar power, Geothermal heat pumps and Hydro electric power. For example, there have been proposals to establish a Wind farm near Balykchi, at least one mining company is working on developing Geothermal power systems and there are already sixteen hydroelectric power stations range from small stations to the 1200 megawatt Toktogul Power Station at the head of the Toktogul Reservoir. The Toktogul dam on the Naryn River and associated power complex were constructed in 1973 – the 215m high dam flooded part of the river valley creating a massive reservoir, which takes an hour to bypass as the Bishkek-Osh road skirts its shore. Planned as one of a series of dams across the mighty river – the complete cascade was never finished but the plans still exist and there are proposals to complete the cascade on the upper part of the river and the Kambarata. There are also a number of projects to produce small, local – community based, hydro-electric stations.
The dependence on hydroelectric power has other implications for Kyrgyzstan, however, as an “upstream country”, at the head of the Central Asian Water Tower. Water from the Toktogul Reservoir is important not just for the production of electrical energy, but also for irrigation further downstream – with implications for the agriculture and economies of “downstream countries”. In 2008-9 the water level in the reservoir fell perilously close to the minimum levels for sustainability and this resulted in rolling power cuts (outages) throughout the country.
The Kyoto Protocol, or the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is an international treaty on climate change. It is actually an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries which ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases. The objective is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Kyrgyzstan is one of the 157 countries that have ratified the protocol – they have acceded to it (one of the stages of ratification). : http://unfccc.int
Bishkek