Postcard from Bishkek

Although Sandy may have devastated the North Eastern Seaboard recently, the event is not as rare as we might think.

Over the last few years there have many stories about the vagaries of the weather and the apparently extreme weather conditions being experienced around the world: heat waves and blizzards, variations in the usual pattern of hurricanes, typhoons and monsoons … and often these aberrations are blamed on global warming and the effects wreaked by mankind’s advances in technology on the environment.

Given the uncertainties of predicting the weather … we may smile at suggestions that Zima ne budet, (there’ll be no summer), but it is good to remember that the basis of the forecasts emanating out of the more regular meteorological services … are based fairly and squarely in the past.  It is worth noting that on 24th and 25th November, 1950, the Eastern United States experienced  The “Storm of the Century“, a violent snowstorm also known as the Great Appalachian Snowstorm, which paralyzed the north eastern United States and the Appalachians the next day.  It brought winds up to 100 mph, sub-zero temperatures, record levels of snowfall, (a town in West Virginia recording 57 inches of snow – that’s just under 145 cms – the equivalent of 72 cm of rain) … and cost 353 people their lives.

 Zima (winter) certainly seems to have set in with snow and temperatures falling well below zero, although if the forecasts are to be believed they will climb again over the weekend.  We live in hope!  Despite the freezing temperatures outside, at the moment both the flat and the office are quite warm … as we are on the city’s central heating network with hot water piped in from the heating plant on the outskirts of town.  We are told that they have fuel and have completed all the routine maintenance so there shouldn’t be any problems this winter … although there has also been some doubt expressed about whether the preparations undertaken will prove to be sufficient.

We are having a bit of a worrying time over the electricity supply.  The authorities have been telling us that everything is ready for the winter season and there won’t be any power cuts, unlike the winter of 2008/9.  There is enough water stored in the Toktogul Reservoir to drive the hydro electric power station and barring any major catastrophe such as an earthquake, war or Kazakhstan deciding to leave the Central Asian Power Grid, then we should not see any major problem.  Well, that’s what they’ve been telling us … the first day the temperatures plummeted, however, there was such a demand for power that the generating companies were forced to impose a series of rolling power cuts – each lasting about an hour and half.  They openly admitted what had happened.  Since then we’ve experienced power cuts of several hours almost every day … and they strike me as being too frequent to be simply accidents or breakdowns brought about by equipment failures.

All this has led to a certain amount of reminiscing and the other day, one of the older members of staff took great pleasure in regaling me with stories about how, one year, there were interruptions in the supply of all the main utilities … in particular, for about a month there was no electricity.  I gathered from the account she gave that they whole family gathered in the yard and they cooked their meals in a large kazan over an open fire.  I am not sure when it happened, it certainly wasn’t in the seventeen and a half years I have been here, so she did some mental arithmetic and agreed … it must have been some years before I came here.

Although the authorities have also said that they are not planning any price hikes – for the domestic user, business users have been warned that they will be paying more … and it looks as if there will be a threshold and anyone consuming more than that limit will find that they will be paying a far higher tariff.

In the future, that might cause me a bit of a problem.  You see, for some months I have been billed for too little for electricity.  Each month, the electricity board sends out an inspector to read the meter … but I am not always at home.  I am allowed to phone or send an SMS with a reading to him but it always seems to miss the deadline.  As a result I vet a “calculated” reading – based on an average … and that has regularly been lower than the actual reading.  I think there must be some sort of limit on the number of “calculated readings” he’s allowed because the bill says often that the reading is an actual reading made by the Controller.  Now, one might be forgiven that I would be pleased about being billed for less … but it can lead to problems … Apart from the fact that I might suddenly find myself exceeding that threshold resulting in a huge surcharge, simply because the inspector actually came and did his job … taking an accurate reading one month, there is always the chance that I could find myself getting cut off … and having to pay another surcharge for being a) cut off and b) reconnected.  A friend of mine was cut off for being four days late paying the bill – and that included a weekend!  As I discovered that, in the space of just a few months, I had built up quite a sizeable debt … I went and paid what I thought I should have been billed.  The cashier looked at me confused … “You don’t need to pay that much!”, she protested … “Yes, I do,” I responded … in the end I started paying through a automatic terminal to avoid the regular banter …

I now try to keep at least a month in credit with all of the utilities – just to avoid any potential problems.

As an aside: it turns out that Kyrgyzstan ranks 181st out of 183, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business Index, when it comes to access to an electricity supply.  Despite the huge hydro electric potential in the country, it seems that there are still some villages where the inhabitants have never had access to it.  In some of the border villages the power supply works for for just 3-4 hours a day … including villages which are less than 10 kilometres from the largest hydroelectric power plant in the country.  As a result there’s a lot of interest being shown in the prospect of building small, (“micro”), hydro electric stations to supply some of these remote outposts.

In the past, as the month or the quarter has come to a close, we used to get phone calls from the local tax office saying that they were having trouble “meeting the plan” and asking if we could pay a little extra, a little early.  I have never been happy about this and usually refuse to pay “our” taxes early because it is not clear how much we are going to be liable for … but where we act as a tax agent – collecting money from our customers and simply passing it over to the treasury, as in the case of Sales tax or VAT – then, technically at least, it is not our money and even though they have no right to claim it early I used to agree t a token advance payment.   It always struck me, however, as a self defeating exercise … because next month they’ll fall short again – by even more … and I am pleased to say that the practice seemed to stop about three or four years ago … so   I was a bit surprised to see a report that Kyrgyzstan has stopped the practice of collecting taxes in advance … it seems that the revenues for this year (2012) includes some taxes which don’t fall due until next year (2013).

 

The news that the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has decided to advise their citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to Kyrgyzstan “due to the high rate of violent crime” came as quite a surprise during the week.  What really struck me as odd was “why now?” … what led the Canadians to change their advice on November 16th, 2012?  The way that such travel advisories work is quite interesting … officials can’t just decide that they are going to say something … they have to gather information, take advice, compare the information they have with the advice given by other countries, and someone senior has to sign off on it, (in Britain, it’s apparently a Deputy Minister).   Something has obviously happened … but what?

Hey, I have to admit that sometimes we do have instances of crime, street crime and event violent crime.  It does happen that foreigners are seen as a target but, (fortunately), it is not that common.   My office has recently been broken into … twice – but apart from breaking a window, little violence was actually done.   That’s not to say I haven’t suffered a violent attack … but then, I remember being set upon in London, in Oxford and even in sleepy old Malvern … not to mention being robbed in Paris and foiling an attempt in Rome … !

What really annoyed me was when I went to look at what else they had to say about Kyrgyzstan on their website, I came across what I consider to be questionable, if not downright mistaken, information about the new visa regime – they seemed to think that the new visa free regime applied only to tourists.

To be honest, the thought crossed my mind that this is all less to do with crime than the trials and tribulations of a certain Canadian based mining company … but maybe I am just being cynical!

 

Talking of crime … it emerged during the week that the abolition of the requirement for drivers to have a document giving them authority to drive a particular vehicle, (either as the owner or someone that the owner trusts with his property), as well as the registration document and their driving license, has resulted in the number of car thefts.  It seems that a lot of people keep the registration document in the vehicle … perhaps in the glove compartment, and all the their need to do is check … and it they are there then he’s away … the police can’t do anything unless the vehicle has actually been reported as stolen.  Even then, it’s not that simple as there seems to be an spate of incidents where it emerges later on that another member of the family has simply taken the car.

 

The deficit continues to worry people – especially those in government.  The week has seen a fair amount of discussion about the contribution being made by different foreign partners to the Kyrgyz economy.  The relative roles of America and Russia have come under the spotlight with Russia, apparently edging ahead.  News of more aid, (grants or loans – for this or that specific purpose), has been emerging – but even so, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have received less inbound investment than other CIS countries.  It seems, however, that Iran has given us a million dollars.

If the government’s budget is in deficit … then the average citizen is beginning to be a bit more circumspect about taking credit from banks.  That’s not all that surprising when you consider the ongoing furore that is surrounding the protest action in Gorky Square.  Not only are the protesters asking for strong measures to be taken against commercial banks and Microfinance organizations, (the National Bank have already revoked over 100 licenses), but they even tried to set themselves on fire during the week.  (The police and fire fighters were on hand to prevent it becoming anything more than a publicity stunt … but the flames were very real … and some of the babushkas “fought” off the attentions of those trying to “help” them).

There could be a seasonal effect in the figures as apparently there were some large corporate loans issued in the Summer months – including a fair amount going to agricultural enterprises.  Apparently, the average rate of interest, is just short of 21% – and most loans have a repayment term of between one and three years.

 

We are once more going through elections – this time for local authorities, including the Bishkek Municipal Council.  Voting takes place on Sunday.  There have been a number of interesting moments in the campaign including: one candidate being asked in a televised debate about the colour of his socks, threats to ban one of the parties for alleged irregularities, the discovery of some 23,000 fake passports (which, it is alleged, could have been intended for use as identity documents when going to vote).

 

Whilst the rest of the world seems to have been concentrating on votes about Gay Marriage, (Civil Unions, Same Sex Marriage …), and Women Bishops and the like … here in Kyrgyzstan the hot topic has been Ala Kachuu – the practice of “Bride Stealing” … well, until this week, that is.  Now another topic has burst into the Arena with the news that one of the parties has officially approached the mufti, (the leading Muslim authority ion the country), with a request that he denounce the practice of SMS divorces.    Sunni Islamic tradition allows men to divorce their wives by merely saying “talaq“, (an Islamic term for a declaration of divorce), anywhere between one and three times and there a growing number of complaints that some of the hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz migrant workers in Russia and Kazakhstan divorce their wives by sending such messages via mobile phones, or over the Internet.  (For the record: Last year, the Council of Islamic Clerics in neighbouring Tajikistan issued a fatwa banning Tajik migrant workers from divorcing their wives by sending “talaq” message in such a way.)

 

All in all, we could be in for some stormy periods in the near future … not just in terms of weather but in social and economic terms as well … but let’s hope it doesn’t become another “winter of discontent”.

 

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

• Another election – about this years election of members for Board of Management of the International Business Council …;
• Charity begins … at home? – Some thoughts in response to a news report in a British newspaper, The Guardian, about how donations to charity in the UK have fallen by 20% in the course of a year;
• Adoption Month – On America this is National Adoption Month, so I took the opportunity to look at Adoption in Kyrgyzstan and why it has turned out to be such a controversial issue;
• World Television Day – I sometimes wonder how we ever managed without the conveniences of modern lay life … and on World Television Day, I look at the “little screen” in Kyrgyzstan;
• The Prosecutor’s Office – November 22nd is considered the “birthday” of the Prosecutor’s Office and is the Professional Holiday of those working in the service;
• Pulat Khan – the pretender to a throne;

It is now possible to follow me on Facebook, (where I have specific pages for Celestial Mountains and ianbek … and also links.kg and Kyrgyz Diary), and on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).

 

 

Tags: Expat, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards