Message – May 15th, 2005
A month passed by:
I have been meaning to write an update for the last two weekends … but other things always seem to crop up and interfere with my plans. Anyway, the events of the last few days in Uzbekistan have spurred me into action.
First of all, let me assure you that everything here, in Kyrgyzstan, is peaceful and that I am quite hopeful for the future. After a previous “postcard” someone wrote to say that I sounded “depressed” … if I gave that impression, I am sorry. No, I am not depressed. Concerned – but not depressed. The main impression I want to leave you with is one of “qualified optimism”. It would be wrong to say that everything is “rosy” … but, although there is still great potential for things to go wrong, it seems to me that there is also great potential for things to get better.
One area of concern is the forthcoming Presidential election. There are several reasons for this. First of all we were not sure how the campaign would go … would it be rancorous or peaceful – I thought that there would be a certain amount of verbal mudslinging, but that there would not be serious discord in the run up to the election itself. Once the results were known, however, then it was not clear how people would react. I think I have said before that “democracy is a dangerous thing” – because there is always a loser … and it wasn’t clear how the “losers” would react. In the UK, for example, most of the electorate didn’t vote for Labour … although they still got in with a healthy majority … but the losers have accepted their victory, even if it has re-opened the debate about proportional representation.
One positive thing here, however, is that the two main candidates (Bakiev and Kulov) have reached a deal. Bakiev will stand for President and, if elected, Kulov will become Prime Minister – and will have responsibility for most of the really important ministries (i.e. controlling the economy). Several people have even said that, following this agreement, there is no need for an election …but, of course we still have to go through it – even if it turns out to be a formality. The important thing is that this agreement seems to have removed the likelihood of further disruption and disorder.
Regarding the general situation here: Now that Askar Akaev is no longer on the scene, it is necessary to search for a new “bogeyman” or scapegoat to blame for the current woes in the country. Although some people still seem to see his hand shaping events through the use of his supporters. One person expressed the view that the situation in the country is being engineered by people who haven’t received a portfolio in the new administration … (in Russian it’s expressed more picturesquely – they haven’t received a briefcase, or they haven’t received an “easy-chair”). As a result they are not happy with the current situation and want to create disorder and instability.
I have said before that I am not a great believer in conspiracy theories … I prefer the “great cock-up” theory. It seems to me that plans may well have been set in motion, but then events take on a life of their own … and everyone is surprised by the eventual results.
There was a surprise when Akaev’s daughter, Bermet, returned and took her seat in the Parliament … she was asked to leave because the result in her constituency has been challenged. She is adamant, however, that none of the family have done anything wrong. The government doesn’t see it that way – and have started a commission to examine the affairs of several companies that have been linked somehow or other with “the family”. They seem to have come up with quite a lot of evidence about transfer of funds and non-payment of taxes. (It is claimed that, already large sums of tax have reached the budget that would formerly have been siphoned off into someone’s pockets). Despite this, the work of the commission is fairly controversial – and it seems that there is a risk that its work will be the cause for more uncertainty.
There is a lot of comment about the need to fight corruption … all the main players are saying the “right” things …let’s hope that it is not just talk, and leads to a real improvement in the economic situation – and the lives of ordinary people.
The squatters who seized land in the South of the city have been granted some … does this mean the new government has “blinked”? Possibly, but it is not clear how this will develop, and, it seems to me, they didn’t really have much choice. The situation, however, does seem to have calmed down.
Another aspect raised by this question of land is that there are rising ethnic tensions, as some of the more nationalistic Kyrgyz are getting strident. Leaflets have been distributed directed against Russians, Turks and Koreans. As a result, many Russians are feeling uneasy and long queues can be seen at the consulate of people wanting to apply for visas so that they can return to the “motherland”. According to one report about 80,000 people have started making applications for documents to leave the country.
There is a Russian proverb: “Vse horosho, gde nas nyet” (Everything is good everywhere else – “where we are not” – in English we say: The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence). I have never had much sympathy with this. When people (local people) talk to me about wanting to emigrate and get a better life, I always ask them why they think it will be better there rather than here. I comment that “I live in the ‘real world’, here and now, and it is up to me to make the best of what I have and to seize the opportunities that present themselves.” (Yes, it is true that some of these opportunities might be ‘elsewhere’ … but I feel it is better to be part of the real world than constantly hankering after ‘what might be’).
Some respond that it is easy for me to react like that – that I can always leave. However, I feel that the people here tend to be very passive. They sit back and accept what comes to them. In the case of the Kyrgyz, this could be a hangover from their nomadic lifestyle … the stresses of life were much simpler … nothing much more complicated than: were the animals OK?, was it time to move to different pastures?, etc. Then there was 70 years of communism when the state did everything. One of Roma’s friends runs a night club that was trashed on the afternoon of March 24th. He came to visit and complained that he was out of a job. I don’t particularly like the guy, but that’s another matter. What really ‘upset’ me was that he just seemed to have accepted it as a fact. I tried to persuade him that now was the time to plan for a re-opening. What could he salvage?, how quickly could he re-open? … But, he just sat there. OK, maybe he was just in a state of shock … but it struck me as a typical attitude: “look what a ‘bum hand’ fate has dealt me” … my reaction is: “OK – so you got a ‘bum hand’ … work with it.” I call it the “Field of Dreams” syndrome … when Kevin Costner hears the voice telling him: “If you build it, he will come”. He ends up with a baseball field in the middle of no-where … and “people will come”. The attitude seems to be that here, in Kyrgyzstan. we have mountains … so “people will come”, we build a hotel … so “people will come”, the year is declared the “Year of Tourism” … so “people will come”, … and so on. If people ARE going to come, then they have to be persuaded … that requires work and activity. They need to be convinced that they will be safe. We have to be active – not passive. (I am pleased to say that I see the club has now re-opened).
I suppose I now have to turn to the events of the last few days in Uzbekistan. I suppose it could have been predicted that something would happen but, once again, the events seem to have caught everyone by surprise. Once again, people seem to be in shock.
There seems to be a conflict between different accounts of the events – the official version from Tashkent and local and international reports that I have seen. The Uzbek authorities have blocked access to Andijan and (as far I can tell) no foreign reporters have been able to get into the city … although I have seen some photographs and video, the lack of “reliable” information is quite frustrating. I have said before that I was quite impressed with much of the reporting of actual events here in Kyrgyzstan during the events in March – it was the commentary that I found frustrating … here, however, there are so few facts to go, very few first hand accounts – so all we are left with is the commentary, second guessing what is going on,
The appalling loss of life, (I wonder if we will ever know exactly how many people were killed); the fact that something like 2000 people were let out of the prison onto the streets; the tragedy of the refugees trying to cross the (closed) borders into Kyrgyzstan (apparently over 500 are stuck in no-man’s land – some of them wounded) … there is the worry about how this will affect the political situation throughout the region – not just in Uzbekistan.
It seems callous to reflect that this probably means that there will be very few travelers on the Silk Road this year (and next?).
We do still have guests in our hotels – and clients for tours … and enquiries from people who still want to come here. Some firms are in serious trouble – but I am pleased to say that we are “keeping our head above the water”. One firm had it’s offices looted on March 24th and lost everything – even the company stamp (and those of you who know about Asia will understand what that means – they can’t do anything – not even pay their taxes!).
On a more personal note … on my CV I used to have the phrase: “I enjoy being busy …” It is a good thing because I have been quite busy in the last few weeks. We have had numerous meetings with different government departments (Tourism, Foreign Affairs, Economic Development …) and other bodies, interviews for the press and appearing on TV (using an interpreter).
We (tour operators) have suggested about 20 things that we think the government could do to help rescue the season – if it is not too late – and which could be a big benefit in subsequent years. The government seemed quite interested and I got quite hopeful that something really positive would result – but we seem to have entered into a hiatus as proposals seem to be stuck on someone’s desk. That is fairly common here.
We were supposed to have a meeting with the Acting President, Bakiev, but it keeps being postponed. I understand that he is busy and has other things occupying his mind … but … it is still frustrating.
Also, the election in Britain: I applied for a postal vote and actually received a voting slip. It arrived on May 3rd – and had to be returned by May 5th – even if I sent it by courier it couldn’t arrive before May 9th – if I sent it by ordinary post it could have taken weeks! – so I didn’t have to worry about who I would support – and ended up just watching how it unfolded on BBC.
So, in summary: at the moment things are quiet – but everything is back “up in the air” … uncertainty seems to be the “order of the day” and it is difficult to predict what is likely to happen in the future … BUT, there are as many – if not more – positive signs as negative ones. Whenever I am asked if I have plans to leave – I am still answering: “No, I see no reason at the moment to even consider it.”
However, I hope that you are not living in such “interesting times” as I am.
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Note:
As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.
This is one of them.
I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”. They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story. As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.
Bishkek