Twists and turns.
In August, 410, Rome was besieged for the third time in three years by the Visgoths under the command of Alaric. On the two previous occasions, faced with starvation and disease, the citizens of Rome had negotiated a peace with the aggressors. This time, however, one of the city gates was opened by slaves and the Visigoths stormed through it and set about a three day orgy of destruction.
It was the first time for almost eight hundred years that the “eternal city” had fallen to an enemy. Even though it was no longer the Imperial capital at the time, Rome was still held in high regard as the spiritual center of the empire and the event was to be a great shock to everyone at the time, friend and foe alike, and is seen as a key milestone in the decline of the Western Roman Empire.
The looting and mayhem came to an end on August 27th, 401 – 1601 years ago today.
Of course, it would have been better to have noted the anniversary of the event last year, when it would have been a nice round number – 1600 – but I suppose you can’t have everything. It’s only in novels and the movies where things work out real neat and tidy; real life is full of ups and downs, twists and turns.
One interesting “twist” is that Roza Otunbaeva manage to break one unfortunate record. She celebrated her birthday this week, her 61st. Sorry – yes, I know that a true gentleman wouldn’t reveal a lady’s age … but it’s the whole point of the story. You see, she’s the first Kyrgyz president to do this, her two predecessors in that office were forced to flee the country in the face of popular uprisings against their regimes in their 60th year.
She received many congratulatory messages and accolades, and one from the newly appointed American Ambassador, (posted on the embassy’s Facebook page … now, there’s a sign of the times), came in for considerable criticism from a right wing commentator in the States, who saw it as sycophantic and demeaning. Maybe they are so wound up in dislike and disdain for anything and everything associated with the current administration that they overlooked the importance of birthdays here and the fact that the message wasn’t in any way particularly notable, (apart from, perhaps, the way that it was delivered).
Incidentally, she received a lot of flowers to mark the day, (giving flowers is a very strong tradition here), and rather than hold on to them – where would she put them all? – she decided to donate them to help brighten up a local maternity hospital.
It seems that some other American commentators have woken up to the fact that Roza Otunbaeva may well be the last friend that the US has as President of Kyrgyzstan for some time. Many of the 79 contenders for that position that are still in the race,(as of Friday), are pro-Russian. As I said last week, Almazbek Atambaev, the current Prime Minister and one the leading contenders for the post of President, has been making noises that when the current agreement about the Manas Transit Center expires in 2014, then the base will close and become a civilian transit hub.
As Atambaev is a candidate, and as I said he looks like being one of the front runners, then he has to stand down as Prime Minister before campaigning actually starts. I like the it’s reported in the press, that he will take a “vacation”. In the meantime, the business of government goes on and he is making a series of “working visits” around the country. He caused a bit of a stir by that there was a plot afoot in some political quarters to force “the ruin and collapse” of Kyrgyzstan as a state. A number of political commentators have disputed this. One says that there is only one threat to Kyrgyzstan – “religious and extremist groups. Another says that what is happening is far wider than Kyrgyzstan, suggesting that the main target is Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is only the “Bickford fuse.” “In any case what is happening in the world, in particular, in North Africa and other parts of the world, is evidence that the processes in the world are not evolving naturally,” he says. (For the record: A Bickford, or safety, fuse is simply a length of cord either filled with combustible material, or made from combustible material. They are often coded by its burn time for 30 cm, for example: “30 seconds”, which means that a length of fuse 30 cm long will take 30 seconds to burn.)
On another occasion, Atambaev commented about the claims which are circulating that prices will rise as a result of Kyrgyzstan joining the Customs Union. He made the following observation, that “prices will grow regardless of entry into the Customs Union or not”. That struck me as “a ruism if ever I heard one”. He pointed out that the government made the decision to enter the Customs Union in order to ease conditions for agricultural producers who have problems with exporting and selling their produce.
As I said last week, the number of candidates is likely to be pared down considerably. Several have already started to “demand” that the requirements for the 100,000 som deposit and the 30,000 supporting signatures be dispensed with … they see it as a barrier, introduced with the specific intention of allowing only “rich people” to enter the race. I am told that there are people canvassing for the signatures; they have another two weeks to do so. Then we’ll know how many candidates will actually appear on the ballot sheet.
One name that won’t be appearing – or will it? – is that of what I call the “Hokey-Cokey” candidate; he submitted his registration papers, then withdrew them, then resubmitted then and finally, (finally?) withdrew them again. Is he in?, or is he out?, or is he just “shaking it all about”. I’ve met the guy several times over the years and he’s a nice enough chap, very committed and is usually very serious … but this is not good.
It seems that the initiative group that wanted to revise the Constitution has also withdrawn their submission … but, depending who actually wins the election, I think we may yet see that move reinstated at some point in the future anyway.
The presidential race isn’t the only election that is due. The post mayor for some 17 towns and cities around the country are also up for grabs, but as they are elected by the members of the local councils, there won’t be any popular suffrage.
Meanwhile, preparations are under way for the Independence Day celebrations on Wednesday, (August 31st). This year, of course, it’s a special occasion as it’s the twentieth anniversary of Kyrgyzstan’s declaration of Independence from the former Soviet Union. Now, the people here love to celebrate and there have been many plans afoot for the various festivities that have been arranged to commemorate the jubilee – the inauguration of two new statues in the main Ala Too Square, concerts, a massive old-style military parade and firework display to name just a few of them.
It also happens to be a double holiday because it also happens to be Orozo Ait, (the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr which marks the end of Ramadan – which is a moveable feast as it is determined by the Islamic calendar which is based on lunar cycles). I am not sure how we going to cope with having two holidays on one day, although I have heard a rumour that Tuesday would also be a “non-working day” to make sure that people don’t miss out on the chance to have a day off and celebrate … however, I haven’t seen any official announcement as of yet. In a way, that doesn’t surprise me as these announcements are usually left to the last minute. It was only on 1st June, 2011, that the official list of anniversaries to be marked during 2011 was approved.
There are still some fun and games going on in the Gold mining sector, where something like a hundred different companies work. Apart from uncertainty over licenses, some of which have been revoked and are subject to appeal through the courts, (one particular case being adjourned yet again, this week), the authorities have now decided to ban the export of gold ore. Starting from next year, all gold ore produced in the country will have to be processed here. It will be possible to export Gold “concentrate”, (a more “pure” form of the mineral than ore straight out the ground), but, according to reports, this will attract an extra “tax” before taking the material out of the country. (I am waiting to see how the Tax Code – supposedly the only legislation that regulates tax in Kyrgyzstan – is amended to introduce this new measure). The odd thing about all this is that, as I understand it – but I am not an expert in this field – Kyrgyzstan does not have the necessary facilities or experience to process gold ore and concentrates in all the forms it is found in the country.
That’s not the only form of bureaucracy that has emerged during the week. It seems that the National Bank are proposing once again that all payments between firms should be through the banking system – payment in case should not be allowed. It’s not the first time that this suggestion has been made, and although it might appear to have some advantages, (like making it more difficult to operate in the “shadow economy” and strengthen the banking system by increasing the amount of their business), it strikes me as pretty impractical.
School starts next week and people are already getting ready, buying new school clothes and kitting their kids out with pen and pencils, flowmasters and tip-ex, pencil cases and school bags. I’m not sure how the teachers are going to react, however, given that according to the Minister of Education they have yet to “see the results” of the pay increase which was announced earlier in the year when there were threats of strikes and mass walkouts. He also pointed out that there is already a shortage of over 3000 teachers.
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Well, here in Kyrgyzstan we have certainly seen our fair share of twists and turns, ups and downs, over the recent past. Just to mention a few: we have seen nine versions of the constitution since independence in 1991; conducted a “world record” number of elections and referenda; and faced two revolutions in five years, (just as Rome may have faced three sieges in three years back at the start of the fifth century).
Incidentally, having devastated and ransacked Rome, Alaric and his force of Visigoths headed south in order to board ships that would take them to attack Rome’s granary in North Africa, but the ships were destroyed and Alaric died en route. Having brought death and destruction to the eternal city, he was destined to meet his own demise. Now, I note that North Africa and Rome are back in the news this week with the support that Italy is granting the Libyan “rebels” who are confronting Colonel Gaddafi and who are storming through Tripoli.
Some situations that we face are man-made, (the third siege of the city in three years; riots and disorder causing mayhem, death and destruction; rebellion leading to civil war) whilst others can be described as natural disasters or “acts of God”, (a massive earthquake and resulting tsunami or the onset of a hurricane causing the first ever “mandatory evacuation” ever ordered in the history of the city of New York).
At the time, these events may well have seemed pretty mundane and ordinary, or dramatic and calamitous, but with hindsight we can put them into context and see where they had far reaching consequences. In each case, however, they were only one scene in a long running “soap opera”, with the storyline continuously developing. What really matters isn’t so much that we meet trials and tribulations, but how we meet them.
As we go through life facing such trials and tribulations, the various twists and turns in the plot, the ups and downs that fate throws at us, it seems useful to remember the piece of advice I saw this week: “When something bad happens, you have three choices: let it define you, destroy you, or be the making of you.”
Bishkek