Postcard from Bishkek

This week marks the anniversary of the abortive Moscow coup which led to the eventual dissolution of the USSR. in 1991 – twenty years ago.

To most of us in the West, it came as huge surprise, but as the BBC put it, “The attempted Moscow coup of August 1991 did not come completely out of the blue”.  Indeed, in the Soviet Union all had not been well for some time.

There is a story that as Gorbachev was introducing his reforms.  I don’t know if it is true, as it fits nicely with all the preconceptions that we in the West had about the Soviet Union but things weren’t always as clear cut as we used to think they were.  The story was told to me, many years ago, by a local and this is roughly what he said:

At a meeting of the Supreme Soviet there was a call for a vote on a motion of some sort.  Usually in that august body votes were more or less predictable.  All the deputies followed the party line, but Gorbachev was trying to introduce reforms and democratic principles.  As the vote was taken, there was a cry of “Those in favour of the motion:” and there was a sea of hands raised.  It looked unanimous, and Gorbachev looked worried.  Then came the call “and those against:”.  Everyone looked round anxiously.  Eventually one hand at the back of the room was nervously raised and Gorbachev turned to his neighbor, another reformer, smiling and saying something.  What was he saying?  Who knows?  Probably something like “Look, it’s working … democracy in action”.  If only he knew where it was all going to lead, that would have wiped the smile off his face.

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In the period prior to the dissolution of the USSR, there had been a period of social and economic difficulty.  To make matters worse, unresolved social problems aggravated the economic difficulties. and there was a growth of republican separatism within the USSR.   The “Democratic” movement in Russia was strengthening … civil unrest erupted in Vilnius, Tbilisi, Baku and Almaty.

Trouble had been brewing in the Baltic States for some years … Estonia even declaring in 1990 that all Soviet power in the country since 1940 was illegal.  A union-wide referendum was held in March 1991, and although 6 of republics boycotted it, a majority in each of the other nine – including the KSSR, (Kyrgyzstan) – voted in favour of the retention of the USSR.

Mikhail Gorbachev, attempted to create a new, less centralized state structure.  On August 20th was to be the signing of a new Union Treaty, which would effectively reform the 15 existing republics of the USSR into a federation of independent republics, with a common president, foreign policy and armed services.  Generally, the leaders of the Central Asian republics supported him in this, along with many reformers who thought that the adoption of a free market economy was the only way to solve the economic problems facing the superpower.   But not everybody in the Union supported the move.

Gorbachev went on holiday to the Crimea, and his Vice President, Prime Minister, Defence Minister and the head of the KGB, along with some other senior officials formed the “State Committee on the State Emergency”.  They sent troops to place Gorbachev under house arrest, and issued decrees suspending all political activity and placing limits on the media – banning most of the newspapers published throughout the Union.  They may have expected popular support, but whilst the world – and the rest of the Soviet Union – watched, thousands went onto the streets of the capital Moscow to “defend the White House” – the home of the Russian parliament, (the “Duma”) where the Mayor of Moscow, Boris Yeltsin, was leading a vigorous opposition to the new authorities.

CNN and the BBC reported that the leaders of the coup were planning to fly to Bishkek – which never happened, and this information may have simply been rumour.  It is interesting that just hours before the junta acted against the White House, (the home of the Duma or Parliament), in Moscow, tanks were to be seen lined up along the road between Bishkek and Manas airport – although no-one seems to know who ordered them onto the streets.

In Bishkek, performances of “Swan Lake” were broadcast on the State Television Service, and then President Akaev appeared to address the nation.  He announced, in what some people say was “blunt” language that shocked the nation, that a coup was being staged in Moscow.

In the face of popular uprising to defend the White House, the coup collapsed after three days and the organizers arrested.  The rest, as they say, is history.

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Some people, here in Kyrgyzstan, still hanker for the days of the Soviet Union.  When I first came here those days were usually referred to euphemistically as the “former times”.  Looking back through rose tinted spectacles, they recall how the factories all worked, people had jobs and there was law and order on the streets – well, if you forget incidents like the Osh riots a year before the demise of the once great “superpower”.

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If Gorbachev wanted to introduce Democracy, he certainly succeeded in this part of the former USSR.  As one commentator puts it, we seem to “drowning in Democracy”.  What with seemingly daily protests daily as people seek redress on the streets rather than through a political process which they don’t seem to trust, but which has resulted in 83 nominations for the post of President in October’s election.  Only sixteen are nominated by political parties, the others are all individuals who have basically nominated themselves.  Even sixteen seems to be overdoing it a bit.

One thing is clear, however, the result of the election is far from clear and predictable.  There are front runners, of course, and seemingly “no hope-ers”, but this is being claimed as the first presidential election in the region where the outcome is uncertain.  One thing we can be certain of, there won’t be 83 names on the ballot paper.  The candidates have to be Kyrgyz citizens between 35 and 70, (which is probably not a problem for any of them); have lkived in Kyrgyzstan for an aggregate of 15 years, (also not a major obstacle for them); not been president before, (which only rules out Askar Akaev and Kurmanbak Bakiev, neither of whom have submitted nominations); pay a deposit of 100,000 som, (that’s about USD2500 – probably not a big problem for most of them – and will be returned in the event that they obtain more than 5% of the popular vote – so most of them are going to lose this); establish an election fund of 50 million soms, (now, that might well pose a problem for many of them); submit petitions of 30,000 signatures in support of their nomination, (that’s over two and a half million signatures – practically the whole of the electorate) and pass an examination in the Kyrgyz language, (which has caught out a few candidates in the past).

Two journalists who submitted nomination papers have now withdrawn themselves from the race.  That leaves 81 candidates and a typical candidate might be described as Kyrgyz, (79 of them are ethnic Kyrgyz – the others are an ethnic Russian and a Kazakh), male, (there being just 6 women), independent, (only 17 have been nominated by a political party, the other 64 being “self-nominated), unemployed (as 19 describe themselves, another 15 are civil servants, 7 former MPs and 8 current parliamentarians).

The Prime Minister, Almazbek Atambaev has finally been nominated by the Social Democratic Party, and many commentators seem to think that the main race will be between him and Tashiev of the Ata Jurt party.  Atambaev will have to stand down as Prime Minister in order to conduct his campaign.

Two of the candidates are described on one of the news services as “satirists” and they have already conducted a Press Conference to outline their programme … which, taken at face value, seem to be somewhat controversial involving the simplification of the Kyrgyz alphabet, land reform, finding some sort of compromise between the free market and command driven styles of economy, however, removing “Soviet style” civil servants and replacing them with young people from abroad, but more controversially, dividing the nation into three classes of citizen depending on their fluency in Kyrgyz language.

Some people think that the number of candidates is not something to be proud of … saying that it is turning the country into a laughing stock.  One commentator says that it is a reflection of the fact that the President wields considerable power – but Roza Otunbaeva would probably disagree with that; she has just announced that she is far from satisfied with her performance in the job pointing out that there are many restrictions on her powers which actually impede her form being able to actually achieve much.  Other commentators point to the cost of the election, something like seventeen and a half million US dollars which could, they say, be better spent elsewhere).  The main concern, however, seems to be the pereniel discussion about the North-South divide in the country … and the possibility that it could lead to yet further dissatisfaction, unrest and even potential conflict.

Personally, I am not as pessimistic as that.  I tend to agree with the commentator who suggests that a number of “coalition tickets” of running mates are likely to emerge … designed to appeal to a wide section of the electorate.  It’s not really in anyone’s interest to have more disorder and chaos and the citizens of Kyrgyzstan have shown themselves in the past as being particularly pragmatic people.  On the other hand … who can tell?

Anyway, the candidates are now under starters’ orders … prepari9ng for the off … but there are still various procedures to go through.   The official registration of candidates will end September 25, and campaigning will begin and carry on until October 29, with the election itself taking place on October 30, 2011.

For those who are interested there was a short, 20 second, report on Euronews which has been posted on Youtube … at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w9WREIKQwM

 

The election when it does come may also involve a referendum of a new constitution.  The Central Election Commission have registered an initiative group who want to put such a question in a plebiscite … presumably, (several of the candidates have indicated they would prefer, just as most of them prefer to look towards Russia than to the West), to return to a Presidential style of government instead of the current Parliamentary system.

Assuming that the eventual winner will be one of the current front runners, things do not look too good for the future of the American Transit Base at Manas airport.  The current agreement runs out in 2014 and that’s also when the drawdown of troops in Afghanistan is supposed to be completed.  The Prime Minister is already making suggestions that the base will be closed and converted into a transport hub.  It seems that the likes of Hilary Clinton and Keanau Reeves have already landed at Bishkek whilst their planes have been refueled, even if they didn’t actually disembark, and it is thought that this could be a major role for the facility once the Americans do go.

On the other hand, it’s not clear if this might not just be piece of “positioning” designed to appeal to the nationalists and pro-Russian lobby amongst the local population in the lead up to the election.

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The other big news story of the week, according to the numbers of press reports, has been the running controversy on the selection of judges for the countries judicial system, with various claims and counter claims of skullduggery and irregularities in the selection procedures.  It even resulted in a protest meeting calling for all those who voted for a particular measure to come and address the assembled crowd.

The monuments for the main Ala Too square are still in the news.  As well as delivery being delayed, we are now being told that there is not enough time to adapt the pedestals on which they are supposed to stand.  However, we are assured that they will be here and installed on time for the Independence Day celebrations.  One piece of good news is that 20 of the 28 million som needed for them has now been collected … (yes, it was said earlier that the cost would be 27 million – but I suppose that’s yet another result of inflation).

There’s another new sculptural complex been donated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – depicting the leaders of the SCO, (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), members at the Astana summit – including Roza Otunbaeva.  As an aside, there was an interesting post on one of the blogs which included a scan of a letter from the Minister to the President about the statue, which was apparently riddled with grammatical errors.  Jim Hacker would not have been pleased and both Sir Humphrey Appelby and Bernard Wooley would have felt the sharp side of his tongue if the Ministry of Administrative Affairs would have suffered such an embarrassing leak, (… unless, of course, Jim had leaked it himself, as he was prone to do.)

On the economic front, we’ve had worrying statistics about the inflation rate – currently running at at a massive 19.8%.  One of the worst items affected is “grechka”, or buckwheat as it is known in the West.  Although it’s rare to come across this in the West, and most our tourists turn their noses up at it, it is supposed to be extremely healthy and is very popular here.  Well, the price of grechka has rocketed by over 40% and some of the locals that I know are very unhappy about this.   At least they are not taking to the street to protest about it and demand that the government do something about it … at least, not yet.

The high rate of inflation is being blamed mainly on rising fuel costs, especially as a result of the problems in supply that we experienced earlier in the year.  Some people are saying that arose because of smuggling that takes place across the Tajik border, where fuel demands a much higher price, and which led to a serious border incident last weekend.  The officials are adamant that this isn’t being done by Kyrgyz citizens but by those from other countries cashing in on the situation.  Anyway, the Vice Prime Minister has given the relevant authorities ten days to resolve the problem of smuggling across the border.   (Short of waiving some sort of a magic wand, however, I am not sure what they are supposed to do.)

Another Minister has been making noises about the collection of money by “arm twisting” that happens in schools.  I am told that, in general, the schools are poorly funded and often have to find ways to supplement their coffers or make savings in order to provide basic resources.   The children often have to provide their own textbooks or pay a “deposit” for ones issued by the school.  The teachers often clean and decorate the school themselves.

There have also been a number of deceptively small items in the news … which could have far reaching implications for the future.  For example, then there have been the assertions that every fourth person in the country is thinking of leaving Kyrgyzstan; in many cases people leave to study abroad … but the suggestion is that there is a real “brain drain” with people seeking a better life which they feel is not available here.  As one report put it: “young people do no associate future with Kyrgyzstan because they do not have their own place in the country.” Then there was the report that 20% of the young people in the country are truly unemployed – they neither have work nor do they study.   In particular – some 800,00 people, (out of a population of just over five million – that’s quite a proportion!), have left to Russia, either as a positive decision to emigrate, but also including people who originally went for work or study but have decided to stay there.  About a third of them have already received Russian citizenship.

Some other reports refered to the plans of the Bishkek City planning authorities about the development of the city center.  Amongst the proposed imaginative, dynamic and ambitious projects are plans for a 50-storey building at the junction of Prospect Chui and Abdrakhmanova, (which most people still refer to as Sovietskaya).  If the plans come to fruition, then the face of downtown Bishkek will change considerably.

The blogosphere has been quite active with what looks like a lot of negative comments on the other major change that has been suggested for Bishkek – to change the name to Manas … and the “populist rhetoric” behind what has been called “Manas Mania”.

There was another interesting article on one of the Kyrgyz blogs about the various suggestions that have been made about trying to bring some form of order to the world of the internet.  Some things that have been suggested include the need to introduce responsibility and accountability for reports on the internet, restrictions on internet forums and so on.  This particular post concerned the specific suggestion that Kyrgyzstan needs a law “On the Internet” … and argued that this was a fallacy, that enough laws already exist which govern and regulate the situation.  I tend to agree the author.  It seems to me that there is great tendency here to legislate on anything and everything at the “drop of a hat” …  what is more important, it seems to me, is whether the laws that exist operate well and are properly enforced, or not.

For a similar reason, I don’t see why we need a law On Tourism” … we already have a variety of legal instruments which regulate commercial relations and activities and there isn’t much that requires additional specific legislation.  We don’t, for example, have a law “On Shops” or “On Restaurants” … so why do we need a law “On Tourism”?

As it happens, there’s been some interesting news on the tourism front as well during the week.  Apparently, for example, all the flights to and from Moscow are fully booked – it’s virtually impossible to get seats.  I have heard of two cases this last week where the paucity of tickjets have affected friends … one had to cancel their trip because they couldn’t get a ticket and another couple who needed to come to Bishkek for a funeral last weekend had to fly via Almaty.  The story is that the seats are all being taken by tourists coming to stay in the resorts on Lake Issyk Kul, although I have to say that we saw very few Russians when wee there last weekend.

The UNDP are considering funding a road construction project and a ropeway leading to the waterfall at Arslan Bob, (Arstanbap).  The waterfalls in the village are a popular tourist attraction but the pathways to them are difficult, so this project could be a useful development.

I got excited when I saw a news story that the Chinese were going to give over 50 million yuan for the construction of a hotel and a 12-storey residential building in Osh, but it turns out that the headline had a mistake in it … it should have read a “hospital”, not a hotel.  The Chinese have been quite generous and have a number of projects in the country, and the Prime Minister has made great play of the fact that when they give aid and assistance, (grants and loans), unlike other countries, it’s is usually without strings attatched.

Talking of China, I see that Mikhail, (Gorbachev), in a frank and illuminating interview in the Guardian this week he commented on the current situation in the country.  He said that he takes the long view of history but is sure reform there is inevitable, “there will be a moment when they will have to decide on political change and they are already nearing that point”.  Bearing in mind that he admits to several mistakes in his time at the head of the helm of the Soviet Union, it will be interesting to see how close he is in his assessment this time.

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Finally … a couple of things relating to Twitter:

Seen on Twitter: “Kyrgyzstan is 90% mountains, 100% awesome. Visit Kyrgyzstan”

A friend who knows my love of trivia sent me a link for an interesting site: http://www.askten.co.uk.  They also produce a weekly newsletter which claims to tell you ten things you didn’t know this time last week – which is, frankly, sometimes a little overconfident.  They also have a Twitter feed, (@askten), and although they don’t follow back, but they do donate £1 to charity for every follower. So, if you have a twitter account, why not get some interesting tidbits in your timeline and do a little to help charity at that same time.

 

Tags: Expat, History, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Soviet_Union, Weekly_Postcards