St. Swithun’s Day
There is a saying that if two or more Englishmen are gathered together, then the conversation will eventually turn to the question of the Weather.
I suppose that this is because the weather that we normally experience in Britain is so changeable. Although we do sometimes experience prolonged spates of hot, or cold, weather the general trend is for short periods of one type of weather to follow each other … a few days of sunshine followed by blustery winds, succeeded by rain before sunshine breaks through once again … interspersed with occasional fog, or snow, etc., according to the season.
I went out the other to join some friends for an evening of ten pin bowling. The taxi driver was particularly talkative and I am not quite sure how we managed to cover so many topics in the short ride from my office to the alley. The conversation followed much the same sort of course as similar conversations, and for part of the way, I was able to chat away in “autopilot” mode. Then he branched out quite a bit and showing a wide range of knowledge on a wide variety of topics, exposing his multifaceted education in philosophy, economics, history and physics.
In the more predictable part of the conversation, he made a comment about Toomannie Albion, (Foggy Albion), and I made my tradition rejoinder that, although we did occasionally have fog, it was not that often and usually occurred, mainly, in the autumn months. I also made my usual comment about the weather: “In the summer, it’s too hot and in the winter, it’s too cold!”
We are going through a hot spell at the moment, temperatures well into the 30’s, and occasionally venturing into the 40’s – I saw one report on Tuesday that here in Bishkek it reached 46 degrees in the sun … it didn’t say what it was in the shade. The weather service only reported 38 degrees, saying that the record for July 12th was 40 degrees. The ambulance service reported an increase in calls related with high blood pressure as a result of the high temperatures.
Now the hot weather may be ‘all well and good’ for those who have time off and choose to holiday on the shores of Lake Issyk Kul … in the years when there is bad weather, it is always the excuse given for the poor showing of the tourist season. However, that always surprises me a little.
It’s true that poor weather might stop people deciding, perhaps on the spur of the moment, to take a few days off to lie on a beach, but this is likely to be local people who live within easy reach of the resorts. On the other hand, a lot of the people who come to Issyk Kul do so for their annual holidays and they have to travel some distance. Most of them come from Kazakhstan, although there is also a considerable number from Russia, and quite a few from Uzbekistan. I’m not sure that they decide to travel the distances concerned at’ the drop of a hat’. They have their holiday dates fixed some time in advance, plan ahead and buy a putyovka, (a voucher for accommodations and other services), some time in advance.
Given that, the weather certainly does have an effect, at least on the attitude of the locals, and will help to determine how many people pack their bags and set off for the shores of this alpine lake. I presume that many do check the weather forecast before they set off.
I have said before that I am quite impressed with the weather forecast here. It seems to better than I remember back in the UK, in my youth. I remember seeing an analysis of weather forecasts that showed long term forecasts appear to have less than 50% accuracy, and even “next day” forecasts have a questionable efficacy.
Modern meteorologists now have the benefit of computer models for detailed analysis and prediction, based on weather patterns that have been recorded over many years. There are, of course, other more traditional ways of forecasting the weather.
There are old favourites like that in the saying: “Red Sky at night, Shepherds’ Delight. Red Sky in the morning, Shepherds’ Warning”, or its many variations. More long term predictions may depend upon the reaction of a rodent to its own shadow on a given day; or the prevailing weather conditions on a given date; when the weather on that day is said to presage that for a period. For example, in the British Isles, Saint Swithun’s day, (today – July 15), is said to forecast the weather for the rest of the summer. If the day is dry, then the legend says that the next forty days will also be dry. If, however, it rains then the rain will continue for those forty days.
There are legends associated with these days that seem to give a justification for the supposed predictive powers of that day. In the case of St. Swithun’s Day, it’s all to do with his apparent displeasure when his grave was moved from outside the abbey to a place within it. There is, however, some scientific explanation as to the efficacy of the legend. Around the middle of July, the jet stream settles into a pattern which, usually, holds reasonably steady until the end of August. When the jet stream lies north of the British Isles then continental high pressure is able to move in; but when it lies across or south of the British Isles, then Arctic air and Atlantic weather systems predominate.
There are similar folklore traditions in France, (Saint Medard’s Day - June 8, and Urban of Langres, and Saint Gervase and Saint Protais - June 19); in Flanders, Belgium, (St Godelieve’s Day - July 6); and in Germany, (the Seven Sleepers’ day – June 27). As these examples all relate to North Wester Europe, I presume that the explanation given in respect of St. Swithun’s Day also has a bearing on these.
In the United States, there is Groundhog Day, (Feburary 2nd), which doesn’t seem to have any basis in science behind it, and in Russia the weather on the feast of the Protecting Veil is popularly believed to indicate the severity of the forthcoming winter.
Unfortunately, I haven’t yet found if there is a Kyrgyz equivalent … but I am told that is a tradition that the prevailing weather on the night of the last visible crescent as the moon wanes, (just before the Dark Moon), will continue for the coming month.
Bishkek
46 I believe. It was Doha hot, but thankfully not Doha humid. With global warming and climate change, all those old farmers’ (sailors’) prognostications may need to be revised. Groundhog Day in the U.S. (Feb. 2) is a relic of the pagan holiday Imbolc (midwinter) carried by Europeans to the U.S. As with all things pagan, signs given by the earth are to be interpreted for human benefit, weather being one of them. By definition, at midwinter there will be 6 more weeks of winter, but the behavior of hibernating animals (more typically the bear, not a rodent) could be read as to whether the winter will continue to be harsh or if the weather will be more spring-like. I think it’s based on the same kind of folklore that gives us “snow begets snow.” There is no scientific basis for Groundhog Day because it is a tradition imported from Europe to the East Coast of the U.S., which features a much different (and less stable) climate than the mother countries.