The end of the world is Nigh!
Apparently, this is to be my final Postcard from Bishkek.
No, I am not planning to retire, but according to Howard Camping, a preacher from California, the world is about to end … today in fact, May 21st, 2011, at about 6pm, (I presume that’s California time). He claims that there will be a massive earthquake, much bigger than anything we have seen to date, followed by about 2 per cent of the world’s population, faithful believers, being immediately “raptured” to Heaven in accordance with prophesies in the Book of Revolution, whilst the rest of us will face five months of misery here on earth before being sent to that “Other Place”.
Apparently he has put his money where his mouth is, (or, at least, that of his supporters who have donated millions of dollars to his religious broadcasting network of 66 stations), in order to publicize the coming apocalypse: on billboards, TV and radio programmes, and a fleet of camper vans touring every state in the US. He has even managed to get coverage in a number of mainstream newspapers as well, (even if the Daily Telegraph has classified it as “Weird News”).
He’s not, of course, the first person to come forward with predictions about the inevitable impending Judgment Day. History is littered with stories of groups who were so convinced that Doomsday was coming that they sold their belongings and prepared to be gathered into the presence of the Almighty only to be disappointed and have to face a new reality when it didn’t occur. There were the Anabaptists of Münster and the Jehovah’s Witnesses had prophesied the end of the world in 1914 ever since the sect had been founded in 1870, and even though doomsday didn’t arrive in 1914, they have been predicting ever since that the world will end “shortly”.
Most recently we have seen the hype over 2012, based an ancient Mayan calendar, which focused the kids attention of the whole idea of “konyetz sveta”, (doomsday), scenarios. Camping bases his predictions on interpreting prophecies in the Bible, and calculations based on the date of the Noah’s flood and the Crucifixion not to mention the signs prophesied in the Book of Revelation: Natural Disasters, Wars and rumours of wars, Disease and Pestilence, Wickedness and Perversion.
Apparently, this is not the first time Camping himself has predicted the end of the world. Back in 1994 he announced that the second coming of Christ would happen on 6 September 1994 … but that day cam and went and hundreds of his listeners who had gathered at an auditorium in anticipation of the great event who then had to make their way home again, presumably wondering why they had been overlooked as the Lord gathered up his faithful followers to his bosom. Undeterred, he puts his mistake down to a miscalculation. I hope he has checked his calculations this time. I wonder if, like all good scientists, he has submitted his research for peer review and, if so, what the general conclusions were.
He’s probably right about one thing, however, even if he is wrong about the actual date. In a case like this, there probably is no “Plan B”. When the four horsemen of the apocalypse gather, whether it be in the form of nuclear war, disease and pestilence, the eruption of a super volcano like the one Yellowstone Park or Lake Toba in Indonesia, an earthquake on the scale of the New Madrid fault, the collapse of Gran Canaria into the Atlantic Ocean, the earth being engulfed in a large solar flare, or an asteroid crashing into the planet … there is little that we will be able to do about it. FEMA may have ordered millions of body bags, examined countless potential scenarios and made provisional plans for different contingencies, no-one really knows what, if anything, is likely to remain after such a catastrophe yet alone what resources will be available and what we can do about it. We will have to meet the challenges with whatever resourcefulness we can muster.
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If Camping and his followers think that they see end of the world fast approaching, that’s not really evident here in Kyrgyzstan, where life carries on with monotonous irregularity and uncertainty.
For example, questions of corruption and abuse of power seem to abound.
You may recall that about six weeks ago the former Prosecutor General, Kubatbek Baibolov gave a controversial speech to the parliament in which he made a number of allegations against various members of the government and a commission was set up to investigate them. Well, the commission has now reported and, as usual, it’s a mixed bag of results.
At about the same time, the First Deputy Minister, Omurbek Babanov, went on temporary leave whilst the investigations were undertaken. The commission has decided that the allegations about him have not been confirmed: In reply to suggestions that he had gone to Belarus in order to meet with former president Bakiev, or his entourage, were answered with the news that he had been there, he had “not crossed the Belarus border”; there was no evidence that he, or his enterprises, had used administrative resources or had underpaid taxes. So, the road was open for him to resume his position – and he re-occupied his office.
There was no support from the Parliamentary commission for Baibanov’s claim that Roza Otunbaeva had intervened in a court case, a property dispute, on her sister’s behalf.
Suggestions that the Security Services were illegally eavesdropping on telephone conversations were also determined to be “not confirmed”, and it seems that the SNB, (the state security service), gave comprehensive documentary evidence, as well as oral submissions, to refute the allegations.
It didn’t all go so well for those in authority, however. The handling of funds and valuables confiscated from Safe Deposit boxes in private banks after the events of April 7th, 2010, for example, raised a number of questions. Although there are some records about what happened to the funds, (some of them being used for security purposes, others being returned to their owners, some still being held in safekeeping in various accounts), apparently not all the necessary documentation was available. “The Lack of basic accounting documents indicate numerous irregularities by various governmental officials, in addressing questions about the preservation and use of extrabudgetary funds,” the commission concluded, and they called for a thorough investigation to be conducted, and the Attorney General’s Office have been tasked to give a legal assessment of the actions of the Provisional Government on the distribution and use of funds.
Another issue surrounded the manufacturer of military equipment, Dastan. Apparently a large sum of money was withdrawn, allegedly for the purchase of some equipment, but was supposedly passed to one of the political parties for their election campaign, instead. The commission found that the allegations were not proven; although a criminal investigation is still underway.
There were also counter allegations made against Baibolov to consider. That he had abused his position, for example, in order to facilitate certain commercial transactions. The commission concluded that there was a connection between real estate transactions and the conduct of criminal cases at a time when he was acting Attorney General and they call for another investigation by the law enforcement bodies to determine who is culpable and for what.
Baibolov has now announced that he intends to run for the presidency in the elections to be held later in the year. He says he has been approached by several political parties with offers of support, but has yet to say which ones.
Meanwhile, one of Babanov’s first actions on resuming office was to welcome the widening of the government with the pledge of support from members of the Ar Namys party. There was also news that two of the opposition parties, that both gain parliamentary seats in last year’s elections, have announced that they are to merge and that uintil the fdormalities are completed they will work together to tackle “the current social, economic, and political problems faced by ordinary people in Kyrgyzstan.”
Some politicians are complaining about the activities of the Bishkek municipal authorities. One particular issue is that school children are supposedly being pressured to buy tickets for a concert by a Russian pop group to be staged in the largest Sports Stadium in the city. The tickets cost 200 som and the stadium seats thousands. Some critical comments center on the lyrics of some of their songs which seem to raise a few eyebrows. Even if the city authorities think that it is appropriate to stage such a concert, why have they decided to promote this particular group?
Then there is the case of the missing passports. Apparently some 100,000 Kyrgyz passports out of three million have gone missing and some are turning up in strange places. These are passports of the old design which were completed by hand rather than the modern design which have the personal details printed in them. It seems that they are in high demand amongst criminal groups and amongst terrorist and extremist organizations because they are easy to forge.
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The controversy over the establishment of a Bio-laboratory by a Canadian company to be based in the Botanical Gardens in Bishkek continues to rumble on. The authorities have now announced that they are looking to renegotiate the deal and will be seeking a different venue. This probably won’t, however, satisfy all the protestors who are asking questions like, “why will the foreign employees at the institution be granted diplomatic status?”
There was a bomb scare at one of Bishkek’s biggest shopping malls, TsUM. People arrived for work one morning to discover the place locked down and a search taking place. Nothing was found. Ironically, the same day saw the start of a two week course in Bishkek on bomb disposal techniques for some 32 officers from the law enforcement agencies, organized by OSCE.
There have also been some fires in local markets, but these seem to have been coincidental and not connected with any potential outrage. In one case it resulted from an accident which occurred when a workman was doing some welding.
This, and the compensation being paid out to those who suffered damages in last years upheavals, made the government’s announcement about introduce compulsory insurance for homes and business particularly timely. It seems like a good idea to me, at least in principle, but no details have been announced and it seems that a new company may have to be established, with pretty substantial reserves, in order to implement the scheme.
The aftermath of last year’s disorder in the South also rumbles on. There have been calls from the international community for recommendations in the report of the International Commission of Enquiry to be implemented, but several politicians here are still smarting at what they see as the unsatisfactory conclusions that it reached and suggestions that some of the recommendations are likely to be even more divisive.
On the other hand, the parliamentary commission set up to look into the events has also been talking about their results. Although they found similarities with the seven, (yes, seven), previous inquiries, they differ on a number of major points. The chronology of events seems to tally, and criticism is levied at the former Bakiev regime, the poor response of the law enforcement agencies and drug lords, and they weren’t given any evidence of “outside involvement” by third parties. Importantly, however, they also say, that the leaders of the Uzbek community must bear responsibility and were the primarily guilty party, having taken advantage of the chaos and power vacuum following the revolution to pursue their own “selfish ambitions”.
Some copies of the Hour of the Jackal book, discs and leaflets have been destroyed, burned, in an iron barrel at a ceremony in Osh accompanied by denunciations of destructive forces which attempted to incite inter-ethnic hatred and destabilize the current situation in the city along with calls for residents to unite and refute the claims contained in the book. I understand the offence and concern that this publication has caused, but why is it that stories of book burning always make me feel uncomfortable?
Another thing that often makes me uncomfortable is Ala Kachuu, which is more commonly referred to as “Bride Stealing” and is one of the features of traditional nomadic life that tends to raise hackles in the West. The fact that for some young Kyrgyz it provides for a framework for elopement, not all instance are cases of consensual agreement between lovers and there have been plenty of accounts appearing in the Western media where the girl and her family have protested and challenged the actions of the Jigits and their families. A recent case where a sociable and outgoing girl underwent a personality change after having been kidnapped, eventually resulting in her suicide, has prompted a campaign here against the practice.
Even the weather is proving to be unreliable. Whereas we used to be able to expect long periods of clear skies, stifling heat during May, we’ve been lucky if we see a spell of weather lasting more than a few days. A couple of days of sunshine and warm temperatures are followed by overcast skies and downpours. There was even a strong wind storm the other night – one of the local newspapers called it a “hurricane” but, although they were strong and did cause a certain amount of localized damage, the wind speeds, at 25 m/s, only qualified as Storm Force 10 and didn’t approach the speeds necessary to qualify as Hurricane force winds according to the Beaufort Scale, (32.7 m/s, 118km/h or 73 mph) or those required on the Saffir-Simpson scale, (33.5 m/s, 121 km/h or 75 mph).
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On a more positive note, however, the government has issued instructions for all government agencies to switch to using energy saving lamps before November 1st. Of course, they hope to use domestically produced lamps rather than imported ones. At least they are expecting the world to last longer than today – and even October. Bu if all this sounds like portents of the imminent Day of Judgment, then Camping’s calculations may yet be vindicated. We’ll see.
In the meantime, if there’s no Postcard next week, then I have either been gathered up (there seems to be a 2% possibility of that – but I am not counting on it), or I am off to that “Other Place”, (with a 98% probability), … or, alternatively, I am off in Naryn for the regular end-of-month visit.
Bishkek