Postcard from Bishkek

Today, 22nd March, marks World Water Day – and has done so ever since 1993 having been approved as such by the General Assembly the previous year.  The idea of the day is to encourage member nations to implement measures regarding the world’s water resources.  Perhaps one of the most concrete aspects of the day is the public appeal for people not to use their taps throughout the whole day(!)

Water may be commonplace on the earth and it is the most important element for life on the planet … we can live for several weeks without food, but without water we cannot live for more than a few days.

Kyrgyzstan is rich in water resources – glaciers (over 8000 of them of different sizes throughout the country occupying over 4% of the land area – although they seem to be retreating), lakes (almost 2000 of them holding over 1700 billion cubic meters of water .. the vast majority of them small and at high altitudes), rivers (about 3500 with several being important sources of water not just here in Kyrgyzstan but also crossing the border an vital to communities in neighbouring countries), bogs (where ground water comes close to the surface – for example around some of the larger lakes and in the Chui valley), and reservoirs (13 man made reservoirs constructed either for irrigation or hydroelectric power generation, holding over 23 cubic kilometers of water) … but it is one of the resources that is under considerable pressure and, according to some commentators, likely to be the source of potential conflict.

There have been niggling  disputes in Talas and the Chui valleys over the course of water, and both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are concerned about the effect of the construction of large hydroelectric power stations on the Naryn River of the availability of water downstream.

Apparently, according to intergovernmental agreements, Kyrgyzstan can use about a quarter of all this water, but a lot of this is wasted due to inefficient irrigation and distribution systems.  Almost 90% of the water consumed in the republic goes towards agriculture.

 

It has been said for many years that water, and access to water resources, may well provide the flashpoint for future conflicts.  That may well be so, but we seem to have a number of potential flashpoints over the last week or so … it’s difficult to know with which one to start.

Let’s start with the case of the missing plane – if only because it looks as if the connection with Central Asia may prove to be non-existent after all.  The plane went missing over a week ago – and just like in the case of  Amelia Earhart, a massive search has been underway ever since to try and find it.  It seems that the after turning off the planes transponder it managed to stay n the air for several hours and one of the possible scenarios had it flying through air space that would bring it up to the region of Kyrgyz airspace.  The Kyrgyz said that they had no records or evidence of the plane having even approached Kyrgyz airspace, but we know there is always the possibility – however remote – that it may have found a way of escaping detection, so when the Malaysians called and asked President Atambaev to help in the search he, of course he agreed … but nothing was found – although there really no surprise there.  It’s difficult to argue any case from silence or the lack of evidence so the question hung in the air … however, the last news that I saw suggested that instead the plane probably turned South … and may well have ditched into the sea to the West of Australia.

If nothing else, the case seems to have exposed a number of gaps in the global security system – from people travelling on stolen passports to vast gaps in the radar surveillance systems.

 

The other global story  that has hogged the headlines has been the situation in Kiev … and the referendum held last Sunday in Crimea which resulted in a massive “yes” vote to join the Russian Federation … and the Russians are proceeding to push the formalities through.  There has been a lot of “propaganda” explaining Moscow’s point of view on Russian TV channels which are pretty widespread here … and it seems to be getting though and persuading people that the West clearly has no case in opposing the absorption of the peninsular into the Federation.

That’s not to say that people aren’t worried about possible outcomes … but the parallels with Czechoslovakia in the 1930′s, the Baltic States in the 1940′s, Argentina and the Falkland Islands in the 1980′s, Iraq and Kuwait in the 1990′s, not to mention Chechnya and the Caucasus and so on, is lost on people.

One parallel that hasn’t gone unnoticed is the application of economic sanctions – in particular the freezing of assets … with the Kyrgyz authorities announcing that they were repeating their call on the European Union to freeze the assets of former President Bakiev and his compatriots.

Having issued a pretty damning statement a week ago – saying that Yanukovych had lost the right to be considered the President of Ukraine as events had shown that he had lost the support of the people – apparently, therefore, not supporting the Russian position – the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry have now come out strongly in support of recognizing the Referendum as the expressed will of the people of the Crimea – and so supporting the Russian position.  Actually, although they appear to be contradictory, there is nothing inconsistent in these statements … they address different issues and when taken separately it is possible to reconcile the two without having to perform major mental gymnastics.

The suggestion that Russia will next turn their attention towards the Central Asian countries is more or less pooh poohed by everyone – at least openly – except the foreign press and their pundits, (correspondents/analysts) here.

 

Big though these stories are, they haven’t totally directed the focus of attention beyond our borders.  There’s been plenty going on here to keep our minds occupied on domestic affairs.

The protest rallies, for example, that the opposition parties were supposed to be organizing on Monday (17th March) were called off – postponed, not cancelled.  They announced that they were proposing to hold them two weeks later, on 31st March, instead.

That raised a huge sigh of relief from everyone – conscious of the fact that Spring is when the protest season gets underway and when we tend to stage our revolutions … tensions and uneasiness start to build up.  The last two revolutions (in 2005 and 2010) both occurred around Easter and remember, we have had several reminders from different groups over the winter months they are were making plans to resume their activities in earnest in Spring.

Anyway, a two week reprieve was welcome … although the news broke too late for Beta Stores, the leading supermarket in the capital … who had decided, (after the damage suffered on previous occasions), that discretion was the better part of valour – and to close on Monday.  For the rest of us, it was “business as usual”.      

The reason for the postponement, they said, was that information had come to light that provocateurs had been recruited to create ethnic tension between the Kyrgyz and other nationalities – primarily Russians … so that an appeal could be made to Moscow for support in any “response” to the situation – presumably mirroring the situation in Ukraine.

Now, I obviously am not privy to the intelligence that the opposition parties have gathered … and there could be something in it … and I am certain that the lovers of conspiracy theories will be convinced that “where there is smoke, there is fire”, but the cynic in me couldn’t help wondering if the reason for the postponement wasn’t a little more mundane … March 17th was before the Norus holiday … the temperatures have not been as clement as in precious years and so not so conducive to calling the masses out onto the streets … perhaps they simply weren’t ready and needed a little more breathing space.  But, maybe that’s just a little too simplistic.

In any case … events have moved on and it looks as if the scenario put forward to justify the postponement is probably not valid.

For a start … there is the situation in Ukraine …

As in the Crimea, we host a number of military installations – although, apart from the air base in Kant, they are all quite small and technical – there’s a testing ground for torpedoes up on Lake Issyk Kul, and some communications installations.  The only sizable contingent is in Kant – and the Russians are expected to strengthen that anyway … nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine nor the domestic situation here … although both may have had added impetus and import to the moves.

However, the Russian Ambassador was at pains to point out that the facilities and troops at the base are there to deal with external threats … not internal ones.   He didn’t comment, (or at least I saw no reference to any any comment in the Press reports of his statement),  on the fact that back in June 2010 when the Kyrgyz government appealed for help in the light of the disturbances in the South of the country, there was none forthcoming.  It was an internal issue and not an external threat, so the troops could not be deployed … even though, as I understand it, they had made the necessary preparations to do so.  

Neither did he make any comment, observation or reference about the use of Black Sea Ports in the Crimea, (at least, as far as I am aware he didn’t – again there is no mention in the press).  Oh, sorry, I forgot, the armed men in military fatigues but without any identifying markings, on the ground in the Crimea are “local patriots” and not Russian servicemen so there is no reason why he should comment, is there?

Anyway, it seems to be a fairly clear indication that even if agent provocateurs have been recruited in order to manufacture an incident where the government would be able to appeal to Russia for assistance … there would be none forthcoming.

 

The Ambassador also made a statement trying to explain how the new, “simplified”, procedures for applying for Russian Citizenship are to be implemented … and it is clear that the move is not aimed just at ethnic Russians – as the two crucial tests are having an immediate family connection with the the countries of the CIS – which basically means the majority of the former Soviet Union … and fluency in Russian, (there will be a commission to administer tests and asses the level of fluency that applicants have.   So, basically anyone born in the former Societ Union, regardless of their ethnicity, can apply … IF they know Russian.  Having got a Russian Passport, then they will get lots of other advantages – apart from the Protection afforded by Russian military might – they’s be able to travel freely across borders as migrant workers … although I am sure that other procedures will be in place and enforced to make sure that it doesn’t become “too easy”.

 

Another thing that has upset the best laid plans of mice and men, is that in a shock move the Ata Meken political party, (which is one of the three parties in the ruling coalition), held an emergency meeting after which they announced that they had decided to withdraw from the coalition.  Under the terms of the constitution, that means that the government has to resign … although everyone holds onto their post in an acting capacity until a new coalition and government is formed.

Having followed all the formalities – it’s not just a case of giving a Press Conference and making an announcement, the President had three days to invite someone to try and form a new coalition and government.  They have fifteen days to negotiate with the leaders of the other parties … if they fail then a second attempt can be made, but if that fails, then we have new parliamentary elections.

In fact the next elections are slated for 2015, so even if a new government is formed, it is going to be have a very limited lifespan and risks being a “lame duck administration” … just at the time when Kyrgyzstan is facing a number of major challenges … accession (or not) to the Customs Union; dealing with the new situation following the drawdown from Afghanistan; completing the reorganization of Kumtor – with all the ramifications for other major foreign investments … including the transport system – new roads, rail and the transformation of Manas Airport into Civilian Hub … and the energy sector; coping with the currency crisis in the light of the devaluation of the Russian Ruble and the Kazakh Tenge (which may indeed get worse if and when economic sanctions begin to bite) … to mention just the main ones.

 

So … if the collapse of the government is going to cause so much upheaval … why did Ata Meken do it?

That’s the question that has been on everybody’s lips practically all week.   Especially given the fact that all the punfits are saying that the new government is likely to be the same, (or at least very similar) to the old one.  Feliks Kulov, the leader of the Ar Namys Party even went so far as to speculate that we could have had a new government in place by the end of the week – but we didn’t.

Just to remind you, there are five parties represented in parliament with roughly an equal number of seats: the three government parties – the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), Ar Namys and Ata Meken and the two opposition parties, Respublica and Ata Jurt.   

Ata Meken is quite happy to rejoin the government … and the main complication is whether or not Respublica will also – hey, were in the government majority until just over a year ago … and even held the Prime Minister’s Office … until the same thing happened forcing them out.

Basically, Ata Meken had little or no argument with government of which it was a member or its programme and policies … apart from the Prime Minister, Satylbaldiev, himself … as far as they were concerned – he had to go and this was the easiest way to achieve that aim.  

Their main problem with him seems to be that they say they have identified irregularities in his background – particularly when he headed the government agency charged in the reconstruction of the South following the ethnic unrest in June 2010.  He, on the other hand, says it is because some people are upset that he wouldn’t appoint their relatives to positions of authority.

Now that he is effectively gone … well, will soon be gone – he is still Acting Prime Minister until a new one is appointed … they are happy to come back into the fold and will support the general thrust of government policy.

Some people have suggested that Ata Meken is simply positioning itself for the next round of elections … in order to try and increase its vote and number of seats in the new parliament … I have even heard a suggestion that it was a deliberate ploy to take the wind out of the sails of the opposition protests … how can they protest against a government which is about to be, or just has been, appointed.

Indeed, the opposition are crying foul.  Like Conspiracy Theorists everywhere they see collusion between the leaders of Ata Meken and the President … although they deny it.

Now, if that sounds confusing … it’s meant to … the situation is complicated and confusing …. and, to be fair, it is also a little simplistic … but I think it is a fair representation of the situation as I understand it.  I could, of course, be wrong … after all … it is very complicated and confusing.

 

To cap it all … some other protests have been taking place this week, staged by the supporters of Keldibekov, the former Toroga or Speaker of the Parliament, … They protested outside the parliament calling on the court to change his detention from the cells of the State Committee for National Security – basically, the KGB – to House Arrest … apparently issuing a warning that if the demand was not met then next time they would bring thousands out onto the streets … Even so, the court declined to do so … and as a result a little disorder broke out … with arrests and fines of 500 to 1000 som being imposed.

The authorities have issued a warning that the statement about mass rallies was phrased in such a way that it could be interpreted as a call to overthrow the government  … in which case, to quote a phrase we have been hearing a lot recently, “there will be consequences”.

 

I am rapidly running out of time and space to comment on the other news … and there HAS been other news … but let me leave you with a few snippets:

The President has signed a new law guaranteeing privacy of communication, telephone calls, emails, etc., although there has still been a bit of a storm over the Security Services abilities to intercept phone calls and other communications … which, they say they don’t except for instances when they have a court order.

The Ministry of Finance is considering a new “luxury tax” … actually, as I understand it, it not a “new” tax but a revision of the rates on the Property Tax – on things like buildings and vehicles … basic provision will be taxed aat a lower rate but anything in excess of this will attract a much higher rate.

The US Dollar exchange rate has stabilised somewhat … the National Bank actually kept it at the same value for several days … I hate to think what that cost them in term of interventions … although the vlaue of the Euro was still floating freely, presumably because it had not been as volatile as that of the dollar.  We have been warned, yet again, that the strength of the dollar will inevitably have an effect on a variety of commodities – notably fuels – as their prices are set in dollars … which boides ill for inflation which has already hit 1.7% since the beginning of the year.

Gender issues are back on the agenda once more … with news that a survey that revealed that there is a general opinion that contraception is “not a woman’s business”.  There were some differences between age and gender groupings – and others – but the statistics did seem to reflect what cold be described as a loose consensus of opinion.  The argument seems to be that if women have access to contraception then they might be more prone to be promiscuous … I wonder if I am the only one who sees some problems with that analysis … but then, maybe I simply misunderstood the reports.  I hope that’s the case.  I do!

Maybe that helps to explain some other startling statistics – such as that about 1 in 6 women have had an abortion and something like 35% have anemia.

Yet another startling survey revealing that violence against women in the home is not only commonplace – but people, including the women – accept it as “normal”.  What particularly set this survey into focus was the discovery of two bodies, unrelated – as far as we know, murder victims … one with their hands bound.  Apparently the police have leads/suspects in one case but are, so far, drawing a blank with the other.

They are also somewhat mystified about an early morning shootout targeting a vehicle on the outskirts of the city center a couple of days ago … bullets and bullet holes were identified … and there was blood in the vehicle but no leads as to who was inside or why it was attacked.

Another group that may soon be feeling the effect of social controls are children and teenagers (and hence their families).  Some MPs are proposing the introduction of a curfew from 10pm to 6am when they will not be allowed in public places without a responsible adult.  Although I can see the logic behind the idea, I am a bit concerned about how it is likely to be enforced – especially when the list of proscribed places where the curfew will apply covers not just places of entertainment – cafes, restaurants and internet cafes, streets and public squares but also the courtyards and playgrounds around apartment blocks.  So, there’ll be no going out into the fresh air.

Mind you there is a problem … another raid on the city in the city markets during the week identified yet more homeless children, runaways, truants and child workers and even managed to identify ten children that have been reported as missing.

Finally, two religious groups have been in the news … concerning court cases.  One, an evangelical church that is trying to protect the building that it purchased to serve as a church years agom back in the Akaev era, and which some authorities are seeking to take back into public ownership … and the other the Tengrist movement, (which claims to be the traditional religion of the nomadic Kyrgyz with elements of Shamanism, Animism and Ancestral Worship – if that’s not too simplified a description), which the State Commission on Religious Affairs refuses to recognize and register as a religion.   Both are likely to be cases to keep an eye on in the future.

 

For anyone interested, there is a wealth of information and statistics about the availability and use of water resources on the official UN Water website.

 

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Postcard from Bishkek: the weekly postcard that I send out as an email also gets posted on the website ianbek.kg each week – and there are other postcards which don’t get sent out.  This week, for example, there has been the following postcards:

• Something old … something new …  – Difficult decisions about what to include and waht to leave out when writing a book about Kyrgyzstan – 16/03/14
• Esengul Ibraev - The Kyrgyz are fond of their poets – such as Esengul Ibraev - 17/03/14
• See you in court - Taking someone to court is often a last resort - 18/03/14
• Kyrgyz Patent - 540 years ago in Venice – a new revolutionary lay was enacted … and led to a government agency here in modern Kyrgyzstan  - 19/03/14
• Hanami – Cherry Blossom time …  – “Lovliest of trees …” – and laden with fruit - 20/03/14
• Alykul Osmonov - Fancy a good read – try a 200 som note - 21/03/14

It is possible to follow me on Facebook, (where we also have specific pages for Celestial Mountains, the Silk Road Lodge, The Celestial Mountains Guesthouse in Naryn  and also links.kg, Kyrgyz Diary and Kyrgyzstan Visitki … and not forgetting ianbek), and also on twitter, (@Bishkekpostcard and @celestialMTC ).

Tags: Calendar, In_the_News, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards