Postcard from Bishkek

This week has been a real “roller coaster” of a week, full of ups and downs, twists and stomach churning turns.

The worst was probably watching the news and reading accounts of the events down South as the week unfolded.  Remember that I am based here in Bishkek, and so I don’t have any direct personal experience of what happened, but the photographs, news footage and reported accounts have been graphic and speak for themselves.  I have also had the chance to speak to people who have had first hand experience of events and as time passed, and as more and more information was revealed, it is quite clear that, even if the local press is doing quite a good job, there is a lot that is not being reported – or, at best, being referred to only obliquely.

It is patently clear, for example, that the toll of casualties is far, far, greater than official figures suggest.  This isn’t just cynical manipulation of the facts by the authorities, no matter how tempting it might be to draw that conclusion, but a feature of the fact the official figures record only those that have passed through official channels … and many have not done so and as a result are still to be recorded and counted – if that proves to be at all possible.

By the government’s own admission, they were caught out.  They say that they had intelligence about the possibility of something about to happen, but it pointed to dates which were later, nearer to the proposed referendum.  When things did happen, they happened suddenly, and quickly escalated, spiralling out of control.  Some people think that they have to take the blame for this, that they acted hesitantly, half heartedly, slowly and ineffectively.  I am not so sure about that, even if they admit that mistakes were made.  Perhaps if they had responded quicker and with a greater show of force, they might have been able to contain the situation, but no-one will ever know.

According to the initial analysis of the UN, there are clear signs of organization behind the events.  It was “masterminded”.  Not, perhaps, not with “military precision”, but with sufficient preparation to “cry havoc and release the dogs …”, in this case the “dogs of anarchy” rather than Caesar’s “dogs of war”.  At the risk of mixing metaphors, these dogs set the country alight in a frenzy of discord, disorder, death and destruction.

On a Fire Prevention course, many years ago, I was taught about the “Triangle of Fire”: that there are three specific prerequisites for any fire: fuel, heat and oxygen.  They are all necessary, … without all three being present there will be no blaze.  In this case there were all three:

• The fuel for the conflagration was provided by the peoples of Southern Kyrgyzstan.  Different communities that have coexisted over the centuries, albeit with occasional outbursts of discord, disorder, death and destruction;
• The heat was provided by groundwork of preparation by some person or persons unknown, (although there are plenty of suggestions as to who they could have been: rumour and counter rumour, designed to pump up the temperature and build upon age old enmities, distrust and ***.  Apparently there had also been a number of “minor” incidents in the period leading up to last Thursday, but these had basically been dealt with and the situation “defused”, or so everyone thought, and both the authorities and the local press played them down, if they were reported at all, that is.
• The oxygen the allowed the fire to get out of control was the response of the authorities: inadequate and inefficient, slow and late.  The presence of the army didn’t help as it should have done – especially as it was predominantly Kyrgyz in composition and there were apparently incidents where individuals disobeyed orders.

The spark that the blaze alight seems to have been were a number of incidents which all started, more or less, simultaneously.  Perhaps they were small in themselves, but the flames they lit were fanned by rumour and counter rumour … such as phones calls reporting that crowds were gathering here and there, moving on this place or that, armed with sticks, knives and guns; the water supply had been poisoned; hostages were being held; … so on and so forth.  Some may well have contained a germ of truth, (there were hostages held, for example), and some may well have been self fulfilling prophecies.  Police stations were stormed, presumably in a search for weapons.  Houses were set on fire. Snipers in cars without numbers and darkened windows were driving by, shooting indiscriminately into crowds.  Barricades were erected and anyone approaching them were shot at.

The government appealed for calm, and for help from Russia.  The calls fell on deaf ears on both accounts.  The refusal of the the Russians to come to the aid of the authorities caused confusion and, to a certain extent, resentment here in Bishkek.  It seemed as if all were abandoning Kyrgyzstan to its fate.  It wasn’t abandoned, of course, as aid came from many different sources, both internally and from abroad.  Indeed, as the situation developed, one of the biggest problems seemed to be getting the aid delivered to the right place at the right time.

As it happens, the absence of any foreign involvement, (apart from, perhaps, those foreign “mercenaries” involved in instigating the conflagration), may well have been a blessing … in that it helped to prevent the conflagration from spreading further … but more on that, perhaps, another time.

Instead, the people and government were forced into a mode of “self-help” in order to extinguish the fire themselves.  Volunteers and veterans were sent to help the military restore order in the South.  Volunteers formed Civil Patrols to help protect communities and preserve law and order.  Reservists were called up in a mobilization.

Another thing I learned on that Fire Prevention course, was under certain circumstances, a “flashover” could occur, where the fire seems to jumps over apparently safe ground to start another blaze in a separate location.  It looked for a while as if that might be possible here, and care was taken to try and prevent the temperature from rising in other parts of the country.  So far, they have been successful … let’s hope that continues.

Four days of disorder, death and destruction.  All in all, it’s not been an easy week.

That’s not to say, however, that it has all been bad.  I started by saying it had been a “roller coaster” of a week … “full of ups and downs, twists and stomach churning turns.”

One of the “ups” has been the way that people in the rest of the country, (and in even in the South later in the week), have come together in order to try and build bridges, repair relationships and build for the future, to deprive the “fire” of either the fuel, heat or oxygen needed for it to burst into flames.  Indeed, the situation in the South has “calmed down” … and although the embers may yet smoulder for some time to come, it is possible that another conflagration may yet be avoided.

Oddly enough, a lot may depend on the outcome of the Referendum, scheduled for next Sunday.  It seems hard to envisage how a successful plebiscite can be held with so many displaced people, both within the country and across the border.  Despite some suggestions that it be postponed, the government seem intent to carry on and do as best they can in order to bring it a sense of legitimacy and help deprive the situation of fuel, heat and oxygen to feed yet further conflagrations breaking out.

Maxim Bakiev, son of the ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiev, (and to many one of the prime causes of Kyrgyzstan’s current misfortunes, and alleged architect of the conflagration in the South), provided one of the twists and surprised everyone by surfacing in Britain.  He was detained at Farnborough airport and asked for Asylum.  It’s possible that the authorities were aware of his plans to do so as they sent off a rapid request for his extradition.  Fortunately, some of the authorities understand that the situation, however, is not that simple, that any such request will take time to consider … months if not years … and there is no guarantee of success.  Most people, however, are used to the “rapid pace” of modern life and seem to expect instantaneous responses.  Small pickets have already been held outside the offices of the Department for International Development, (DFID), here in Bishkek, and British embassies in Kazakhstan and Russia, as well as in Central London.  One member of the government has even suggested that if the request is not satisfied then it should trigger the closure of the American base at Manas.

Also, it might seem surprising, but there are still tourists visiting the country … not many, but the season is not “as dead as a doornail”.   Not yet, at least.

One tour operator says that he thinks that they are captives to plans which they made months ago, when everything was quiet and peaceful.  Either they have non-refundable tickets or they were on a trip along the Great Silk Road and so, basically, had to cross Kyrgyzstan in order to get from China to Uzbekistan, (or vice versa).  However I don’t agree:  I don’t think that a non-refundable ticket would stop me cancelling a trip if I thought that it was the most sensible option – and even if the airline wouldn’t refund the money for the ticket, I would hope that my travel insurance would cover the cost, and there are other ways to get between China and Uzbekistan, there are flights for example, or routes that go via Kazakhstan.   What’s more we are still getting enquiries and bookings from people who want to come to Kyrgyzstan, from countries as far afield as America, France, Switzerland, Indonesia, Taiwan and Brazil.

That’s raised a fine moral point with which I have had to wrestle during the week … should we accept the business?  Is it safe to bring tourists here?  Indeed, during the week I had two difficult conversations with tour operators, both of which concerned the question  whether or not to operate tours in Kyrgyzstan under the circumstances.

The first was with one of our partners who organize tours, like we do, throughout Central Asia.  He had decided to cancel all tours which involved travelling through the South of Kyrgyzstan, to the Ferghana Valley and those which involved crossing the border over the Irkeshtam Pass to or from China, or over the Kyzyl Art Pass to or from Tajikistan.  He was particularly worried about whether or not we should cancel all tours where the itinerary included Kyrgyzstan.  I said that I thought this wasn’t necessary.  At least, not yet.  Although the situation in the South was particularly bad, the situation in the rest of the country was still moderately quiet.  Things were tense … but quiet. Although the situation in the North of the country, (in particular in Bishkek, Issyk Kul and Naryn regions), was such that there was no reason, at the moment, to cancel tours, we would, obviously, have to keep the situation under review and if it were to deteriorate in anyway throughout the rest of the country, then we would have to reconsider …  but at the moment, we were not canceling tours.

On the other hand, we had to recognize that clients might well be anxious in the light of the news that was emerging from out of the country and that they might well chose to cancel their tours, themselves.  As a company we were trying to keep clients informed of developments and answer any questions that they posed.  It would depend on the particular circumstances, the time, the itinerary and how the situation develops, but at the moment,  although I wouldn’t want to “talk them into” continuing with the tour – neither, on the other hand, would I say “Don’t come”.

The second conversation was more surprising.  It took the form of a phone call from a tour operator who wanted to know our attitude about taking a group of tourists down to the Ferghana Valley at the present time.  To be honest, I wasn’t sure what lay behind the question.  Was it, for example, a genuine question because there a group that was planning to cross over the Kyzyl Art pass from Tajikistan and then head out again straight away over the Irkeshtam Pass into China.  If that was so, for example, it would mean that they wouldn’t have to approach Osh … and so, possibly, someone thought it should still be possible to do this without having to cancel or rearrange the whole trip.  I can think of some other possible scenarios which might have led to the question … but as I don’t know for certain, any supposition would be just guesswork.  Anyway, I gave my response which was a little more polite than the first thought that went through my mind: “Are you crazy?” … or even the second: “No way, José”.

In both cases, I suppose that the question was really: “to go or not to go?” … and the different answers to those two questions raise an interesting issue: when, and under what conditions, do we decide that it is “unsafe, unprofessional and irresponsible” to bring tourists to Kyrgyzstan at all?

On a more personal note: I had been planning to take a trip out into the mountains last weekend, to see a waterfall that I haven’t yet visited, even though I have sent several groups there for a picnic.  In view of the situation, however, I decided to cancel the trip … I also planned to go to a concert in the middle of the week, but as the situation was still developing, I decided not go there either, after all … there will be plenty of opportunities to both another time.

I went to see another game of baseball … it was still the Rams against the Bears, (the only two teams in this particular age group, this year), but this time the result was a little less satisfactory.  A couple of basic mistakes in the opening innings meant that the Bears were able to accumulate a score of three runs.  After that, however, the two teams were much closer matched and managed to hold each other without conceding any further score.  The Rams kept their spirits up in the face of adversity and played well until the final ball – a final “strike”.  I have to admit that, sometimes, I found it difficult to judge if a pitch was a “strike” or a “ball”, but I put that down to the fact I was sitting on the “bleachers” and so so not in an ideal position to see how it arrived over the plate.  Anyway, as a result, the game finished a 3-0 win for the Bears, and a drawn series, so far.  We’ll see what happens next week.

Next weekend, as well the proposed Referendum, I am scheduled to go to Naryn, so the postcard might be a little late.  I hope it will be more positive.

Tags: Expat, Interesting_Times, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards