Postcard from Bishkek

This is an email that I sent out to family and friends, colleagues and clients following the events of April 7th, 2010, when Kyrgyzstan found itself in the headlines once again as the result of what one newspaper called the “Easter Revolution”

Let me start this “postcard” with some thanks, an apology and an explanation:

First of all the “Thanks”, which go to all of you who have contacted us by email, Skype, fax or phone about the incidents here in Kyrgyzstan.  Your thoughts are much appreciated. It has also been very good to receive news about what you are all doing.

Secondly, the apologies.  I’m sorry that it is a “round robin” type of letter, a sort of newsletter, but there are so many of you that I simply haven’t had the time to write individually.

Also, I am sorry for not having written earlier.  Those of you who received my postcards about the Tulip Revolution in 2005 will probably remember that they began before the event, and that I was able to write about events more or less every day …  If those events caught everyone by surprise, then this year it was even more unexpected.  Looking back in hindsight, I suppose that we have been better prepared and foreseen the possibility of what happened taking place – but, quite frankly, we were all caught “off-guard”, especially by the speed at which everything occurred.

On top of that, as you can imagine, we have all been fairly busy, as the sequence of events have unfolded.  If the “postcards” that I sent out in 2005 were like a diary then I am afraid that I haven’t had time to do something similar this time, and I am writing at the weekend.   Even as I am writing I am taking telephone calls from people asking for updates about I know about this or that situation.

All of this means that this “postcard” is a bit long … but I hope it will be of interest.

Finally, the “explanation”.  What follows are personal comments and views about the situation as I saw and experienced it, as an ex-pat living and working in Bishkek.  They are personal.  The place is full of rumour and counter-rumour and I didn’t see everything and don’t know everything that happened, so where I draw conclusions it is possible that I may be mistaken – but it is how I see things.

You will have seen the news items about what one newspaper here is calling the “Easter Revolution”.  As Tony has pointed out, it’s my second Revolution in five years and, as Steve pointed out, there is a very strong sense of déjà vu about the events.  They say that History has a habit of repeating itself and I suppose that what has happened here in Bishkek will only go to support this view.  There are some differences between what happened in March 2005 and in April 2010, but the similarities are pretty striking.

Amongst those differences are: the speed of the events, the effect of the internet … and the death toll.

You will probably the background to the story and remember that President Bakiev came to power as the result of the “Tulip Revolution” in 2005.  There was uproar and anger the population concerning authoritarianism, corruption, “empire building”, and nepotism.  It all came to a head in demonstrations in the capital when the White House, (the seat of the government) was stormed by crowds of protestors.  President Akaev fled the country and the fragmented opposition found itself thrust into a position of having to try to forge a new government to fill the vacuum.  Bakiev emerged as the compromise leader and, for a time at least, hopes for improvement were high.

Things did not, however, go smoothly.  There were continuous protests over the five years of his presidency and it sometimes seemed as if he was making the same mistakes as his predecessor.  His party won parliamentary elections and he got himself re-elected to office for another five years, but there were many criticisms about the conduct of these elections, both within the country and from abroad.  He reorganized the government last autumn – and drew a certain amount of criticism by placing several of family in crucial positions.  Nowadays, even his supporters in his hometown of Djalal Abad admit to seven major mistakes.

A particular cause of concern amongst the population has been huge hikes in the price of energy … four or five fold in some cases, but with little or no support for the poor, which is most of the population.

In retrospect, I suppose that we might have anticipated what was about to happen. A couple of weeks beforehand I had met the British Ambassador and we had talked about the situation.  We both seemed to acknowledge that things “could go either way”: It was perfectly possible that the authorities had things well under control and a “firm hand” would discourage things getting out of control … but that there was a great deal of disappointment and discontent which could boil over.

We knew of the planned protests – although the opposition “played their cards close to their chests”, releasing little concrete information, presumably to prevent their plans from being disrupted by the authorities.  We also knew that Bakiev and his Prime Minister were strong authoritarian characters who had acted with firmness in the face of opposition.

It certainly seems that the authorities anticipated the events because, apparently, there were huge transfers of funds out of the country just a few days before the trouble erupted.  A friend of mine was supposed to have an important meeting with the governor of the Talas region on the 7^th, but that was cancelled a week beforehand because of the news that there were supposed to be mass demonstrations around the country.  We did know about the planned demonstrations … but I don’t think many people anticipated the full extent the way that events would turn out.  I’m not sure that even the organizers did.    In the West we are always having demonstrations – some of them quite big, and some even turn out to be quite violent.  I thought that these demonstrations would be similar.  I suppose I didn’t take into account the extent of the displeasure amongst the population against the regime, and their reaction to being shot at and people in the crowd being killed.

They also tried to clamp down on the press.  One of the news agencies carried a few articles which reported criticisms of the government in Russian, but their English language service was remarkably quiet on the subject.  Those critical articles were very much the exception … there was very little in the local press, and attacks on journalists seemed to happen with a certain amount of regularity.  So much so that international organizations commented about the phenomenon – including comments from the General Secretary of the UN on his visit to the country as part of a tour of Central Asian states.  Internet access was problematical – but oddly enough, normal service seemed to be restored on the morning of the 7th, so we were able to get a lot of news as the events unfolded.

The protests actually began some time ago, with demonstrations against the energy price rises.  Then  it all seemed to erupt on Tuesday, the 6^th, in Talas.  Government offices were by the crowd, taken back by the authorities, then seized again.

The first I heard of it was when I was in a meeting on Friday evening.  One of my colleagues had received a phone call from his partners in Moscow asking what was happening.  It was all over their news reports.  He didn’t know anything about it, and the local TV stations didn’t seem to reporting it.  So we were getting all our news through Moscow.  During the meeting, another of my colleagues took a phone call and he told us that he was being informed that there had been deaths in Talas.

I left that meeting in sense of despondency, but even at that stage I didn’t really foresee history repeating itself in the way that it did.

So, the following morning things continued more or less as usual, although I did do a “shopping run” to stock up on food – even though I make a habit of trying to keep a well stocked fridge and plenty of dried food.

To be fair, some people, had started to take precautions … for example, several shopkeepers started to clear their shelves in the morning and this helped to reduce the amount of destruction which was to follow.

As far as I was concerned however, it was just another day.  I had to go to a hearing in the Supreme Court … we were suing the local authorities over something, and were due to get the judgment that morning.  (The judgment went against us, by the way … we lost the case and are considering what to do next).  Then, when I received a phone call from one of our Uzbek partners who happened to be visiting Bishkek, I was happy to agree to meet him for lunch.  I attended to a couple of other matters, checked the news reports about the protests and ran off to the bank … only to be told that I had left it too late and the queues were too long so that I should come back after lunch.  So, off I went to lunch.

It was a clear day, although overcast and a little chilly … what happened to the 300 days of sunshine a year I was promised back in 1995, I asked myself.  There were a lot of people on the streets, but everyone seemed to be going about their usual business.  The place was crowded and after exchanging greetings with on or two other diners that I knew, I took the only free table I could see.  My guest was late, but when he turned up, he also had the impression that everything was more or less normal.  You can imagine our surprise then, when within half an hour the place was deserted, the shutters were going up and we were being told that they were closing.  We decided with typical British Stiff Upper Lip and Uzbek “I don’t know what” to at least finish our meal.  It was while we were eating that some of his employees arrived to say that things were looking serious.  So we settled the bill and left.  By this time the noise ion the street was getting quite loud and people were showing signs of frantic activity.  As we parted, he ran across the street dodging cars and I nonchalantly strolled back the 500 meters to my office.

I mention this simply to try and give an impression of how sudden everything developed … as I said, perhaps we should have anticipated things, but there were no major signals as to what was about happen.

When I got back to the office, a quick check of the internet and the TV reports made it clear that this was developing into something quite nasty.  As soon as the shots were heard we decided to “batten down the hatches” and I sent the staff home.  With a couple of lads I moved all the computers out of the office, and the essential company documents and stamps … just in case.  We’ve had a fence put up outside the office and so I locked the gates.   I then retired to watch the reports on the TV … CNN and BBC were already carrying reports, and check the internet.

We saw how the crowds were amassed around the White House; how some of the police, having tried to control the crowd, were retreating with some of them falling and being caught and beaten by the protestors; “snipers” were seen firing from the roof of the White House; how the gates of the building were rammed by vehicles …   We heard the news about how Bakiev had disappeared and a new, interim, government had been set up.

The action for some time was all happening in the main square, some distance from us, so we had time to organize ourselves … and the staff of “Prague”, a newly opened shop in the next building, quickly worked to clear the stock and set up the shutters.

As darkness drew in crowds started to roam the streets … at first they were just boisterous … but as the night progressed we heard breaking glass, more gunshots and began to see people carrying things that they had obviously taken from shops … at first it was mainly food and booze … it was only much later that we saw signs of fridges, televisions and the like being loaded into cars.

Since 2005, quite a lot of shops have installed metal shutters and this has meant that they were saved from the worst forms of destruction.  News came of the airwaves that the local supermarket, Beta Stores, had been looted.  This came as a surprise because they had installed such shutters, but it seems that the looters found a weak spot round the back of the building.  As it turns out, however, apparently they were only able to gain access to the stockroom and the shop itself escaped serious damage and was opened again after two days.  Other supermarkets and shopping centers were not so lucky and all the stores in the Narodniy chain were more or less destroyed … those that managed to escape destruction on the first night were to suffer their fate the next.

Having said that, the destruction was probably less than we experienced five years ago.  That is not to say, however, that it wasn’t an unpleasant experience.

The worse thing about the day, of course, was the tragic loss of life … over 80 people at the current count, and the number who were seriously injured in the events.  I heard later from a friend how he had to the main square, which is not far from where he lives, “just to see what was going on … “ and how a man standing nearby was shot.  Some of our off-duty staff also told how they had helped to carried bodies from the square to waiting ambulances … unfortunately, not all of them were living.

The next day was relatively quiet – although virtually no shops or businesses were open, although the hotel was open for business, of course, and we operated the office albeit in a restricted way.  Nighttime once again saw some crowd disturbances and looting. There was light rain, and it is surprising how many people said they were praying for heavy rain or even snow, recalling how that had helped to diffuse tensions five years ago.   In the center, however, we more or less escaped a second night of disturbances.  It’s funny, in a way … in 2005 the second night of disturbances were disrupted by rain and the following night by snow … another example of history repeating itself … with the weather having, at least some, influenced the course of events.

It became clear that Bakiev had fled to his home in Djalal Abad, in the South of the country.  He started giving interviews and it seems quite clear that he doesn’t want to resign … although it is hard to see how he can continue as President.  Given the reaction of foreign governments, who recognize that he is still the elected President, albeit one with no actual power and totally unable to direct events … who has made numerous “mistakes” in his governance of the country, and how important it is to reach a peaceful conclusion to the current crisis, it seems clear to me that he is not going to get much support from the international community and so is unlikely to start a long and protracted civil war … although I suppose that is still possible.

The British embassy have sent a delegation to Bishkek and I had another meeting with the Ambassador to go over a number of points.  Their advice basically remains: keep a low profile and avoid crowds, be aware of  your circumstances and surroundings at all times; although it should be possible to go out of doors safely during the daytime it would be best to stay at home at night … and, in general, avoid all but essential travel to Kyrgyzstan at the moment.  Having said that, they are not advising an evacuation.  Some organizations, however, are arranging for the evacuation of all but essential personnel.  They are basically “playing it safe” and I can’t say that I blame them … although I have no plans to leave.  I have decided, however, that I would probably have to call off a planned trip to an exhibition in France because:

1. I could see that it might be necessary to be around to deal with things and couldn’t risk being out of the country for a week;
2. I didn’t want to be seen to be apparently running away, and
3. If things were to develop badly, then it might be difficult to re-enter the country …

We have cancelled the tours that were due to start this month … it would be irresponsible to bring people here whilst things are still so uncertain.  We’ll see how things develop before deciding about tours due to start later … things could settle down very quickly – they did in 2005, but then again, who can tell … and as Harold Wilson once observed: “A week is a long time in politics!”  The hotel in Bishkek is full of journalists at the moment, but we are obviously receiving cancellations for later in the month.  The situation in Naryn is quiet but we will have to see how many guests the guesthouse will see this month … and in the near future.

As in 2005, a few days after the events that brought Kyrgyzstan into the headlines, events elsewhere have occurred which are pushing us out of them again.  Then it was the death of the Pope, this time it is the situation in Thailand; the plane crash in which the President and most of the leadership of Poland were killed …

I could write a lot more, but I think that’s probably enough for now …

Tags: Easter_Revolution, Expat, History, Interesting_Times, Kyrgyzstan, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards