It’s that time of year again …
It’s that time of year again, when people look back over the events of the past twelve months, and ahead making plans and resolutions for the next twelve.
Newspapers, magazines, TV channels and web sites all seem to have reviews of the year: month by month summaries of events or thematic presentations across several months; nominations for the film of the year; Lessons to be learned from the year’s events; announcements of the selected Personality of the Year or Sportsman of the Year. One newspaper ran a column “The women of 2011” and it was good to see Roza Otunbaeva being given the recognition for having overseen Kyrgyzstan through a difficult period and being willing and able to pass on the presidency in a peaceful transition.
Incidentally, although it’s nothing to do with Kyrgyzstan, I see that there has been another peaceful handover this week. Bill Marriot is handing over the reins as CEO of Marriott Hotels. He has decided to resign and stand down from the day-to-day management of the empire after 40 years at the helm, as he approaches his 80th birthday. He has been one of my “heroes” ever since I read his biography shortly after we opened the Silk Road Lodge, here in Bishkek. I found many little “gems” of wisdom in what he had to say and even though I don’t follow every piece of advice, (for example, “Never let a piece of paper cross your desk twice”), I did find it thought provoking and challenging.
The year seems to be ending on a positive note in many ways. The new government has finally been sworn in on time but it has been criticized for containing many of the same old faces with few young people, women or representatives of Kyrgyzstan’s ethnic minorities and basically consolidating the power base of the President. Mind you, the majority of the candidates for the top job of prime Minister were under 45 – a sign of the times? In the end was the vote in support of the new government was so strong that one commentator pointed out that Bakiev “could only dream” of such a compliant parliament.
It wasn’t all plain sailing, however, as another commentator had the temerity to remind us that at the beginning of the year both Atambaev, (then Prime Minister), and Babanov, (then Vice Prime Minister), had said that they would go if Kyrgyzstan ended the year with a deficit … well, it has and I suppose that in a way, they have “kept their word”, but not in the way that might have been expected back then: Atambaev is no longer Prime Minister – he is now the President, and Babanov is no longer Deputy Prime Minister – he is the Prime Minister.
One of the first thing those new ministers found on their desks upon taking office was an instruction from the new Prime Minister banning all official trips over the New Year period. In Kazakhstan, it seems that President Nazarbaev has basically banned officials from taking any trips over the holiday. Actually, they will probably welcome the measure, bearing in mind the problems that Keldibekov, the former speaker, encountered as a result of what he claims was a “chance encounter” with an alleged “crime boss” when they both chose to see in the New Year at the same resort on Lake Issyk Kul. I don’t think it will ruin their holiday.
Some officials up in Karakol, however, are having a bad New Year. Apparently “scores” of them have been arrested just before the holiday and bank accounts frozen in a dispute over the ownership of a building that was originally built it back in 1887 between a Muslim organization and various State bodies.
If we thought that the election of Atambaev as President was the end of the seemingly never ending and perpetual elections that we have been holding, ushering in a period of stability, then the news that local elections have been scheduled for January and March in the new year will have put paid to that idea. At least these elections are less likely to be so controversial.
The European Union may well be undergoing difficulties of its own at the moment; they are still able to find several millions of Euro to help support Kyrgyzstan, with loans and grants aimed at helping to resolve serious economic and social problems brought about as a result of the Global Financial Crisis and Budget Support. I suppose I am not the only one to be struck by the irony of the situation, but I have to say that I am pleased that they, and the Americans for that matter, are not taking the same approach of “burying their heads in the sand” as some of the American Presidential candidates. (Some of them seem to have adopted an extremist “populist” stance on foreign aid, saying that they would freeze the whole programme.)
If it seems that the year is ending on a positive note, there have also been a number of incidents to “take the shine off” this general impression.
One piece of news which caught my eye, for example, was a report that some thieves had stolen and ATM from one of the local banks. I was particularly amused by the way they said it had been “abducted”(!), but then I was taken aback by the news that it contained almost a million soms and nearly thirty thousand dollars (!!).
More seriously, there has been a series of gas explosions in the Maevka area, just outside Bishkek, fortunately with no casualties – something which is being described as a miracle. The authorities have detected about 600 potentially dangerous devices and infringements of the safety regulations. At the moment, most of the village is without Gas supplies whilst the situation is resolved.
Then there was a fire at a petroleum storage depot, which destroyed four vehicles and killed five people. It is thought to have been started by an explosion but initial reports seem to rule out foul play – that is, terrorism.
There was an incident in the Batken oblast, in the extreme south west of the country, where three schoolboys were apparently beaten up by some Tajik motorists for “walking in the road” and not on the pavement. The assailants were detained but a group of Tajiks demanded their release which led to a counter demonstration by ethnic Kyrgyz demanding they be handed over to them. The demonstrations got out of hand and considerable damage seems to have been done but, to their credit, it seems that the police with the cooperation of local community leaders brought the situation under control. Still, it goes to show that the situation remains somewhat volatile.
Perhaps the worst example was when a plane operated by Kyrgyz airlines crashed on landing at Osh airport in fog after a flight from Bishkek. Apparently the plane landed hard, skidded on the runway and flipped over. The plane was a Tupulev 134 which carries some 78 passengers and it was nearly full, including a number of infants, (although a report I saw actually mentioned 95 people – but I think that included the crew). Fortunately, there were no fatalities but a number of people were injured, (some reports say they received “moderate injuries”). Judging from the photographs, they were lucky that the situation wasn’t more serious. The irony is that the government decided just a week or so ago to withdraw these planes from service as they are quite old and there are questions about their suitability and airworthiness in the modern conditions. Kyrgyz airlines have been banned from European airspace due to concerns about safety and maintenance of aircraft. These planes, however, were only used on internal flights, but the incident adds significance to the warnings and travel advice issued by various governments to their citizens about the advisability of avoiding flights on local airlines.
Talking of air travel, the future of the Manas transit centre is back in the headlines with a vengeance with Atambaev repeating his view that its very presence in the country is dangerous ,,, to dangerous even at the cost of USD150 million. He is reported to have said that it was Iran that tipped his judgment and the fact that we are within striking distance of Iranian missiles. He is also reported to have said that the Collective Security Treaty Organization, (CSTO – who recently agreed a policy that any foreign bases on the territory of one of its members had to be approved by all them), should not interfere in the internal policies of the member states, and there has been some interesting comments about the Russians needing to pay up for their bases in Kyrgyzstan.
Looking back to just last week, I mentioned that we had been experiencing a particularly cold spell. As that postcard went out I received a newsletter with a story about how Britain was being treated to an unseasonably warm Christmas. Whereas we were experiencing record low temperatures and power cuts, parts of Scotland were basking in temperatures just short of the warmest on record, (back in 1896) and parts of Southern England had drought warnings in place.
There’s an interesting side effect from that story. The phrase “Zima ne budet”, (“There’ll be no winter”), has become something of a trend with headlines and posts saying “Zime ne budet, no lietom budet”, (“There’ll be no winter but there will be summer”) or “Sveta ne budet”, (“There’ll be no electricity”) … I’ve even seen “There’ll be no Friday” but that had nothing to do with Kyrgyzstan. Although, in a way, it is a compliment to the politician that started it all, I doubt if it what he expected or wanted when he made his prediction.
There was an interesting moment in the saga about the energy crisis in that the administrators of the most popular internet forums started deleting any posts referring to power blackouts. In fact, it wasn’t just Kyrgyzstan that was experiencing problems; parts of Southern Kazakhstan were also left without power and heating during the worst of the inclement weather.
I have just got back to Bishkek from a visit to Naryn for the end of year routines. I was expecting it to be cold; Naryn is known as the coldest city in Kyrgyzstan – the temperature has been to fall to minus forty but, personally, I have never experienced it quite as low as that. As it happens it wasn’t too bad. Although the thermometer showed minus twelve it felt much warmer, probably because there wasn’t any wind. Mind you, overnight it fell to about minus twenty five degrees.
Looking forward to next year,
Atambaev has been making statements not only about the base but also noting the fact that we are about to enter the Chinese year of the Dragon, (the only legendary animal of the Chinese zodiac and a symbol of good luck), and has said that Kyrgyzstan can become one of the Asian Dragon economies. We’ll see. He’s also said that, whether we want it or not, it’s inevitable that Kyrgyzstan will join Russia, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan and enter the Customs Union.
The new government has moved quickly to set about trying to establish new systems of control and appraisal for government agencies. There are new limits on the use of official cars, (one of the issues that helped to bring down the former speaker), and a moratorium on checks on businesses; “We will do all we can so that business can work freely and effectively for itself and workers,” explained Vice Prime Minister Joormat Otorbaev.
I suppose that all that remains is for me to wish you all “S Novom Godom! Do sledushiye goda!”, (“Happy New Year – Until next year!”.
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Bishkek
Let me use the opportunity to thank you for your continued reporting on what’s going on in Kyrgyzstan — and beyond in the region, including your personal impressions and analyses.
I hope that you have had a good time so far, enjoying international Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and looking forward to Russian Christmas and …
A HAPPY NEW YEAR. That’s what I wish you, your family, and your team.
it’s always such a great pleasure to read your postcards from Bishkek!
Here is another postcard to wish you the best for the new year.