2010 and all that- “Looking forward to 2011, lots of changes and hopefully less complications!”
New Year is almost upon us and it is time to sit back and think about what has happened and making resolutions and plans for the coming year.
There are already lots of reviews of the year in the various newspapers and on TV and Radio. This year Kyrgyzstan seems to feature in all of them …
To be honest, it’s probably too early to really review the year … there is always the risk that we are too close to the events, (especially those of us who, like me, have been caught up in the middle of things), it’s very easy to look back and read into things with hindsight, using the information that we learned later on. I know that as I went through the postcards from 2005 for the website, I was a little surprised at some of the things I wrote at the time in the light of what I now know.
I suppose, however, that one of the advantages of New Year is that it gives us a time to focus on what has happened, to think about, plan, make resolutions and set targets for the coming year and so now is an appropriate time to look back and review the year that is coming to a close.
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It seems obvious to say that is has not exactly been a good year … there has been so much tragedy … but that is the case. I am tempted to call an “annus horribilis”. The phrase is Latin and literally means “year of horrors” or “horrible year”. In fact it seems to be a modern invention, alluding to the more classical “annus mirabilis”, or “year of wonders”. It was brought to the public’s attention in 1992 in a speech by Queen Elizabeth II to commemorate the 40th anniversary of her accession to the throne.
During the year the British Royal family had suffered a series of misfortunes, including:
- The separation of her second son, Prince Andrew of Wikileaks fame, followed by the publication of topless photos of his wife, Sarah Fergusson, in the tabloid press;
- The divorce of her daughter, Princess Anne, from her husband, Captain Mark Phillips;
- A fire at Windsor Castle, just days before the speech, which caused serious damage to the historic building and the loss of many “priceless” valuables.
Her “year of horrors” was not yet over, however, as a few weeks later her oldest son and heir to the throne, Prince Charles, and his wife, Princess Diana, announced their separation.
Some of these misfortunes might well be considered self inflicted, but even so, the majority of the British public felt sympathy for the queen in what should have been a moment of triumph for her – even if they baulked at footing the repair bill for Windsor Castle.
The phrase was also used by Kofi Annan to describe his year, 2004, just days before the deadly Tsunami that wreaked havoc, death and destruction from Indonesia to West Africa, and by the Spanish Press to describe the series of misfortunes that befell the Spanish Royal family in 2007.
I don’t think anyone will complain if I also use the phrase to describe the year that has passed here in Kyrgyzstan.
The year started quietly and no-one could have guessed what was in store for us: for Kyrgyzstan as a whole, for business and for me on a more personal level.
Let’s begin with the obvious … and the events that brought Kyrgyzstan into the headlines … a revolution that brought down a government, sent the second president into exile, and presaged nine months of nerve racking uncertainty. I won’t itemize in detail the events one by one: the root causes of the initial unrest which the events of April 7th which cost so many lives, the aftermath in Maevka and later in Jalal Abad, culminating in the mayem and riots, death and destruction in Osh during June; Telephonegate, Wikileaks, the fuel contract for the Manas airbase, and other scandals; The closure of the borders and the havoc that reaped on the Kyrgyz economy; The search for vengeance leading to witch hunts and trials, and the bombing in Bishkek. … That’s all in the newspapers, on the internet and in quite a few of the almost 300 postcards that I have written throughout the year.
What I do want to say, however, is that, of all the things that have struck me throughout the year as the dreadful events unfolded, I have noticed how there is a strange mix of both, hope and despair – sometimes in the same people. Despair as yet another outrage seems to explode, (sometimes quite literally), into our consciousness – and hope, not only that this will be the last such incident to occur but also that something will change for the better.
Back in May, for example, I was impressed when one member of the Interim Government made a statement to the effect that Kyrgyzstan could not expect any inward investment until November … at the earliest … until after the referendum and the election of a new parliament and installation of a new government. Here at last, I thought, was someone who had grasped the enormity of the situation and, what is more, had their eyes on the future.
It reminded me of a man that I met a few years ago. I don’t really know him and, to be honest, I don’t know that he is the sort of person with whom I would spend a lot of time, but he did impress me. You see, he has two sons – and he bought two small plots of land, one for each of them, and planted trees on them. The trees will grow as the boys, themselves, grow up and mature. When his sons are ready to strike out on their own, to leave home and set out on an independent life, perhaps settle down to start a family, then those two plots of land and the timber growing on them will have accumulated in value and will help to give them a head’s start in their adult lives. “For a few thousand dollars,” he said, “I’ve provided them with a firm foundation for their future.”
On the other hand, there is also a cynicism that nothing will change. That politicians are all the same and only interested in furthering their own ends. That there was a revolution, but all that changed was the incumbent in the White House and one or two people at the top of the political ladder.
In many ways people are losing patience. They have been promised that things will get better, but they don’t see this in their everyday lives and so are frustrated and baulk at every difficulty they encounter. Their impatience is such that they don’t see that the government cannot resolve every problem. That the situation is more complex than it may seem and takes time to address. After nineteen years of independence and patience, however, they are saying “enough is enough”.
One headline I saw, (that was prompted by the demands for compensation made by victims of just one of the many violent incidents that we experienced during the summer), proclaimed: “We want it all … and we want it now!”
I have often said that I feel sorry for the people of Kyrgyzstan. They remind me of Boxer, the cart-horse in George Orwell’s “Animal Farm”, whose incredible strength, dedication, and loyalty play a key role in the early prosperity of farm after the animals launch a revolution and oust Mr. Jones, (the, often drunk, farmer who ran Manor Farm). Quick to help but rather naive and childlike, he shows much devotion to the animal’s ideals which originally inspired their rebellion against the cruel treatment handed out by Mr.Jones. Unfortunately, this leads him into a blind faith in Napolean, the pig who led the rebellion, and a willingness to let the pigs make all the decisions, for good or ill. One of his two mottoes was “Napoleon is always right”. His other motto was ”I must work harder” and he looks forward to his “retirement” in the pasture that has been set aside for elderly farm animals who have reached the end of their working life … only to die before he is entitled to benefit from it.
Just like Boxer, the people of Kyrgyzstan have been waiting in hope and anticipation of a better life. Seduced by images in TV soap operas like “Santa Barbara”, they let their leaders take decisions and adopted the Free Market Economy – trying to adapt to the realities of the new world in which they found themselves. They waited for a beter life to materialize … and waited … and waited … !
What the majority saw and experienced, however, was far from the better life. Factories closed and people became unemployed. Many of the social facilities that they had come to rely upon closed – or went private. Inflation ate into what earnings they did receive and what savings they had managed to accumulate. As those in authority and those with the wherewithal to take advantage of the situation did so, the country became two, (or more), separate societies. It was not just a case of the North versus the the South … nor of the Urban versus the Rural … nor the “haves” versus the “have-nots” … nor, even, of the Kyrgyz versus the Uzbek … but a far more complex picture combining these and other aspects. Just like the animals of the renamed Manor Farm, they felt confused and betrayed by their leaders – but unlike the sheep in Animal Farm, they were not prepared to learn a new slogan.
It wasn’t like the 1930s when the Kulaks lost all but, in theory at least, their deprivations were going to the state. What people saw was the demise of both the State and the private sector to the benefit of a small clique – a modern equivalent of the Imperial Royal Family. But, the modern world is not the same as the old order. Modern methods of communication enabled people to mobilize and gave them and their resistance a sense of, as Barrack Obama’s campaign slogan proclaimed, “Yes, we can!”. And they did.
But … at what a cost!
The trouble is, as I see it, there is no obvious present day equivalent of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his “New Deal” to help the country from the quagmire in which Kyrgyzstan finds itself – someone with the foresight to buy two plots of land and plant trees to ensure his son’s future well being – although there is no lack of people who think that they fit the bill.
Since the events in April, some of them have been busy in trying to institute reforms and change the political system here. In doing so they have thrown down the gauntlet and are challenging many vested interests. Of course, that is not universally popular and there are many who don’t want change but look back to the security and certainty of earlier times. Others, it seems are intent on maintaining an atmosphere of uncertainty and anxiety, whether they are politicians motivated by political ambitions, Islamic fundamentalists seeking to establish an Islamic Caliphate in Central Asia, representatives of the former regime seeking revenge on, (and/or to destabilize), their successors, or criminal elements seeking to profit from an environment where the enforcement of law and order is weak and ineffective leaving them with ample opportunities to exploit.
As a result, progress seems to be tortuously slow as Kyrgyzstan seem to limp from one crisis situation to another. If it is not disorder on the streets involving death, destruction and mayhem, then it is convoluted debates about the finer points of political systems. All this seems to instil a sense of hopelessness and despair in some people, but not all. Some recognize that “Rome wasn’t built in a day”, that steps have to be taken in a logical order and procedures have to be followed which all takes time. Several other countries have taken their time to install governments and set themselves on the road to recovery. One piece of research I saw suggested that after a major upheaval like a civil war it can take up to 30 years for a society and its economy to recover. The trouble is that we are living in a “3 minute society” which is used to instant, (or near instant), results and we are back facing the impatience of society, sick of waiting … and waiting … and waiting for any sign of progress.
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Well, that is probably more than enough pontification on that theme … let me turn to some other matters.
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It’s been a bad year for business. I mentioned, for example the problems with closed borders and how that has crippled trade in the republic … well, for our business it has been extremely tough. Tourists were, understandably, discouraged from visiting Kyrgyzstan by the violent events throughout the year. After several years of growth, most tour firms are talking in terms of having lost something like a half to two thirds of their business when compared to last year – one claimed to have had only 10% of the number of clients that they served last year. Those tourists that did come, however, seem on the whole to have enjoyed their time in Kyrgyzstan and I hope that the stories they recount on their return home, the photographs and souvenirs that they took, may serve to interest others in coming here.
Some of my correspondents tell me that they have tried to place stories in their local press, but been met with blank looks as the editors are looking for something for more dramatic than “we had a great time”, or that they have addressed meetings at local churches or clubs and although people have expressed interest in their accounts, precious few, (if any), have expressed an interest in visiting.
Something tells me that for it will be difficult to encourage people to visit Kyrgyzstan for some years to come.
Surprisingly, given the fall in the number of tourists. the Hotels have not done too badly. The Silk Road Lodge, of course, is in the country’s capital and although occupancy is down on precious years, it has not as bad as I had feared. The guesthouse in Naryn is on one of the two land routes into China following the Great Silk Road, and there have, thankfully, been tourists that have braved the potential dangers in order to follow in the footsteps of Marco Polo and other traders from an earlier generation.
I have been quite busy with both of the Associations of which we are members: the International Business Council, (IBC) and the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators, (KATO). To be frank, both of these have undergone difficult periods – perhaps the most difficult in their experience but both, I hope and trust, are showing signs of of a resurgence.
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For me, personally, it has been a difficult year … already, I have been referring to this as the “Year of the black tie”. The year began with the untimely death of a very close friend in January, and a string of other people, friends and acquaintances, that have passed away or have suffered the loss of close relatives – not to mention the hundreds of people lost in the upheavals that we have experienced.
I could just of easily have named it the “Year of Repairs” or the “Year of the Builders” as we seem to have been continuously renovating one building or another.
The year began with the redecoration my apartment. In theory a simple and straightforward task. The builders, however, also worked on the flat of one of my neighbours and so progress was slow, and constantly interrupted by events – funerals and revolutions and riots. As it happens we also undertook some general work on the building and together with our neighbours erected a fence across the driveway, which was completed just in time for “revolution”. Then, the roof fell in on the kid’s and we had to renovate their home. At first I thought it would be just the roof, but as with all such projects, once the builders started work, they discovered other things that needed doing, and one thing led to another which meant that it was almost nine months before we had finished. As the year drew to a close we discovered yet more problems with the ageing pipework and the cladding in our building and so, even as I thought I was due a respite from all this construction, more work has had to be started.
Although I have been fairly active. For example, I have enjoyed my forays back into the world of education, being a guest speaker on a number of occasions – and even acting as an external assessor for an examination. I missed the game of American football, but managed a couple of Baseball and enjoyed a few rounds of Petanque, not to mention getting well and truly thrashed at Ten Pin Bowling.
However, I haven’t been “out and about” as much as I would have liked. Funnily enough, each year I make a “New Year’s Resolution” that I will get out and about try to explore more of Kyrgyzstan but this year a lot of the journeys that I had planned were called off. I also cancelled plans for a number of foreign trips: to France, the UK and Australia. When I have managed get out of the office, it’s not always been without incident – getting a bad case of sunburn in Issyk Kul, and nearly getting the car stuck in the mud on the Son Kul plateau, only to face the prospect of having to negotiate the bog once more as found a bridge down and then a landslide blocking the road as we made our way back to Bishkek.
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Turning to the question of resolutions for the coming year, I suppose that I could fall back on the old faithful ones of giving something up, or of working harder, (like Boxer), and trying not to fall and let work mount up on my desk, but, instead try to keep up to date … or more general: to learn from the past, but try to put it behind us – so that we can go forward in hope and strive to build a better future … or a bit more personal, to try and learn Kyrgyz, (which is something I have been meaning to do for some time, but never got round to) … to get out and about more, and visit some of the places in Kyrgyzstan I have been meaning to visit for several years, now …
Although, (as my brother pointed out in his Christmas Season’s Greetings message a week ago), these generic resolutions set goals, they might not be as helpful as more specific resolutions with stated targets might be. So much of our lives these days are driven by attempting to meet targets. The risk is that if we concentrate on the targets then we might lose sight of the final goal but they can, at least, be set at different levels, realistic and achievable.
So let’s start with something quite easy:
- to work harder and more efficiently and not “put off until tomorrow what can be done today” – and in particular to not let a job or piece of paper rest on my desk for more than three days …
- to try and learn Kyrgyz – and in particular to spend an average of half an hour a day studying, reading, listening, talking Kyrgyz …
- to “get out and about more” – and in particular to visit, at least, one new place/event each month …
That’s probably enough for now, hopefully the targets are realistic and achievable … within my power and capability to fulfil.
We’ll see …
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Anyway, as a final thought … I saw this comment as a entry on a “friends” Facebook page: “Looking forward to 2011, lots of changes and hopefully less complications!” … sounds pretty good to me!
Bishkek