Postcard from Bishkek

There’s a fascination with statistics here.  I know that in the West we also have a fascination with numbers, but it seems to be taken to extreme here.   I suppose it is a consequence of the culture of “the plan” which was so prevalent in Soviet times.  Everything was done to make sure that you demonstrate that you had exceeded the plan … whilst carefully avoiding any indicator which suggested the contrary.  I have written in the past about how different ministries can produce different statistics that claim to measure the same thing – but are at variance with one another.  Somebody seems to want to prove that things are getting better, whilst someone else wants to show that there are still problems.  The problems is that the statistics always raise more questions than they answer – if a picture is a worth a thousand words and there’s a story behind every one, then there’s always a complete saga behind each statistic.

Well, there has been plenty of statistics this week.

For example – to continue the elections theme – it was announced that 7000 police and 12,000 civilian volunteers will be on hand to maintain peace and security during the election.  I’m not sure what that means – whether it is good or bad – on the one hand it sounds a lot but, I ask myself, what will they do?, what can they do?, if trouble really does erupt during the campaign, yet alone on the day.  Of course, I am hoping that there will be nothing for them to do and that things will go smoothly – but who can tell what will happen.  There are plenty of pundits who making statements about the tinder-box that Kyrgyzstan has become – possibly adding to the tension.

On another front, inflation is up by 5.2% – bad news.  On the other hand, GDP is showing signs of improvement despite all our recent upheavals – if only just, by 0.3% – and that’s good news.  However, it turns out that if you discount the output of the gold mines, the economy is in “negative growth” and has declined by 1% – bad news.  According to the National Bank, the only real stable source of “income” to the country is the inflow of remittances from Kyrgyz citizens working abroad.  This has shown something like a 15-20% growth in the first eight months of the year – good news … or is it?.

There is more money flowing into the country in the form of aid as well – or at least announcements of aid – from Russia, and the US, Turkey, Japan, and the IMF amongst others.

Then again, there is the question of the cost of electricity.  At one time, not so long ago, we were told that it costs just over 40 tiyin to produce a kilowatt of electricity – and so there was no need for the tariff to be raised.  (“Tiyin” is a Turkic word which basically means “small change” and is the name given to cents, or pence, which comprise the Som – 1 som = 100 tiyin).  Now we are being told that the cost of production is actually more like 1 som 40 tiyin, so electricity is being sold to the public at a loss.  Never mind.  We are now in a position to export electricity and it will be at a higher price so we will cover the loss at the expense of our foreign customers and prices won’t have to rise for the domestic consumer.  Hmmmm.

There have been other examples of “creative economics” emerging during the week – claims that violations have been discovered in the accounts for the construction of the new Karambata Ata power plants and the operations of one of the banks.  It’s not small sums that are involved, either, but millions – billions – of som.  Apparently the EBRD are going to be conducting a special audit of all donor projects to see what has happened to the money.  I wonder what they will find?, and what we’ll be told?  Or maybe I am just being cynical again.  I hope not.

This week, once again, preparations for the election have dominated the news – although not exclusively as there has also been a fair amount of competition for the headlines from other stories.

The 29 political parties taking part in the election have had their list of candidates approved.  It’s interesting how many of the candidates are technically “unemployed” – with no permanent place of employment.  In one case, it’s apparently over half the list.

In theory Kyrgyzstan is a secular country and religious based parties are banned.  That hasn’t stopped the odd politician from making statements that the country needs to be become an Islamic Republic and the call for Islamic parties.  The Spiritual Board of Muslims, however, has banned its members, (basically the clergy), from campaigning in the election.  The police have also been told not to get involved.

One amusing incident, well it would be amusing under other circumstances, occurred this week when a light aircraft strayed off course and strayed into Uzbek airspace.  The aircraft was carrying about 500 kg of leaflets, written in Kyrgyz, with information about the election and the manifesto of one of the parties.  Well, it was carrying the leaflets, that is, until it dropped them from a height of about 600 meters on the wrong side of the border.  The party concerned maintains that the plane didn’t enter Uzbek airspace, whatever the Uzbek security services says, but that the leaflets were blown over the border by windy weather.   In a way I was glad to hear that because, being a little cynical, I thought that maybe there was a point in campaigning in the Uzbek Ferghana Valley – perhaps the party was trying to woo voters currently in Uzbekistan.  Apparently There will be 44 polling stations established abroad to service the Kyrgyz Diaspora – in 22 different countries.

In their campaign, one party seems to be promoting the idea of simplifying the tax system.  Now, that caught my eye – especially as we are one of the “large” taxpayers in the country.  I haven’t seen any details, only a “tweet”, but apparently they are suggesting reducing the number of state taxes to just one – they didn’t say which one – and leaving two or three local taxes.  Now that might sound nice, but it’s not the number of taxes that is important – it’s the amount of tax revenue that is raised for the state and local budgets that will enable the government to meet its obligations.  To make it more interesting, the tweet went on to say that they propose to reduce the number of taxpayers to just 1000.  I hate to think how much each of those 1000 taxpayers are going to have to pay in order to meet the national budget.    There is already a planned annual deficit – of around 25-30% – so, it’s not clear to me what will happen if this suggestion is eventually implemented.

During the election the voters will be able to vote for just one party.  It’s not clear what the ballot paper will look like and the Electoral commission are considering a number of alternatives.   One will list just the 20 parties, another variant will add the names of the party leaders.  Others would include some of the other top candidates from each of the party lists.  I am going to be careful what I say about the ballot paper, itself – partly because I don’t know anything and partly because in last year’s election, one politician was prosecuted for publishing a photograph of a ballot on his blog and he ended up fleeing the country and seeking political asylum abroad.   What I have said so far, however, is in the public domain – it was in the news – and so I feel reasonably safe in reporting it.

I will, however, venture one comment, with the hope and trust that it won’t get me into trouble: It is going to be a big ballot paper even if it lists only the twenty nine parties.  It’s not a question for me, but I get the feeling that it would actually make sense to include the name of the party leader.  Most of the parties seem to revolve around the leader anyway and it would help avoid any confusion.  Everyone who has told me that they know who they are they are going to vote for has mentioned the name of the leader – not the name of a party.

The election seems to have brought a hiatus to the business of government.  Just like the summer months when it is practically impossible to get anything done because people have gone off to Issyk Kul, or elsewhere, for their holidays.  It’s as if people are looking over their shoulders wondering what will happen, and who will be sitting in their place in a month’s time.  I was talking to a couple of consultants during the week who both told me that their projects are more or less “on hold” until after the election.  Despite that, two high ranking appointments have made during the week in a sort of “mini shuffle” – along with the odd ambassador or two.

Roza Otunbaeva has been busy with the business of government – visiting Turkey for a congress and managing to get them to agree to holding their next meeting in Bishkek – now that is a welcome sign of confidence.

The problems in the South in June are also, still in the headlines.  Many people accredited them to ethnic tensions and although it has to be admitted that these were a definite element to the events, most of the analysts seem to think that there were a number of complex issues involved.  Although things are basically quiet here at the moment, this ethnic element just won’t go away.

Indeed there has been much comment, both and in the international press, about the dangers of the rise of nationalism in Kyrgyzstan.

In particular there have been comments by some politicians about the fact that the titular peoples of the country should not have a lower status than other nationalities.  (Titular people? – yes, I had to think about that for a moment – this is Kyrgyzstan which means “land of the Kyrgyz”.)  I can understand the sentiment of what is being said, but on the other hand, the constitution which was recently overwhelmingly approve guarantees equal treatment for all Kyrgyz citizens regards of their nationality.   The Kyrgyz should not have a lower status or standing than any other nationality – that’s fair, right and proper, but on the other hand, other nationalities should not be disadvantaged either.  I’m not sure how attractive Kyrgyzstan will appear to foreign investors in the light of such pronouncements.

During the first of the trials over the troubles in the south, an Uzbek Human Rights activist was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment.  This has raised concerns abroad and resulted in critical comments.  It hasn’t gone unnoticed here either.

The “Molotov cocktail” which was through over the wall of the Synogogue last week has received a certain amount of tension and raised a question

During the week I received in the mail a cutting from the Washington Post about anti-Chinese sentiments in the country.  The facts reported in it were, it seems to me, fairly accurate.   Following the April revolution several Chinese businesses suffered considerable damage.

It’s also been announced that some 42,000 Kyrgyz citizens have applied for and gained Russian citizenship – and that was in 2009, before the events of this year.  There are no figures for the number of applications that have been made since April.

I could give more examples – but I think that is sufficient to illustrate the point.

Despite all the questions, ambiguity and uncertainty, things aren’t that bad.  Life goes on as normal, at least here in Bishkek.  There are plenty of highlights and good moments.

Amongst this week’s highlights have been the visit of the film crew from “What took you so long” who are making a series of films about camels and camel cheese.  I am impressed with their work rate – not a moment was wasted as they rushed from meeting to meeting.  They managed to find a couple of camels just outside Bishkek, apparently one, Bela, “kisses people” and the other, Maria, “has two comfy humps!”.  They are currently up in Naryn searching for more before they head off to Uzbekistan.   There will be more news about their visit posted on ianbek.kg at the beginning of the week.

Talking of websites, the work on www.links.kg is going well.  We now have over 500 sites and over 1700 links to Kyrgyzstan and travel listed.  I was impressed that within a day of it going live it was googled and someone actually tweeted it.

Hugh, one of my consultant friends has returned to Bishkek.  He runs a charity fundraising effort in support of an orphanage and a couple of Microcredit organizations in Karakol which I have written about before, (and can find some details on both ianbek.kg and www.gk.kg) and it was good to get an update when we met for dinner one evening.

Apart from that, there have been the usual round of meetings and I went to the television studios for the recording of a programme summarizing this year’s tourism season.  Everyone there said that they had been to Issyk Kul this year – supporting the development of Kyrgyz Domestic Tourism in the absence of the Kazakhs.

The one piece of disappointing news, as far as I am concerned, is that I won’t be going to the World Travel Market (WTM) exhibition and trade fair in London in November.  Although I had been considering it, there have been a number of problems over the stand – and so I have decided that we won’t go this year.

I’m sorry if there have too many numbers – statistics – in this week’s postcard … but I could have added more.  I tried to cut them down to a minimum because, although statistics are useful indicators, they don’t tell the whole story.  They raise more questions than they answer.  I can’t answer all the questions, but I hope that I have given an insight into some of the background behind them.

Tags: Expat, Interesting_Times, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Statistics, Weekly_Postcards