Postcard from Bishkek

Michael J. Fox encountered a number of dilemmas as Marty McFly in the 1985 Stephen Spielberg film, “Back to the Future”.  One of those dilemmas gave the film it’s title – having been thrust 50 years into the past, how was Fox/McFly to return home?  The film was a great success: it was the highest earning film of the year; won a number of awards; is considered to be one of the best science fiction movies ever, and it spawned not only two interconnected sequels but also an animated series and a theme park ride as well as the usual franchised tie-ins: goods, toys and souvenirs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yosuvf7Unmg

Although the original concept for the script was based on a plot for a single film, (and it can indeed stand alone in its own right as one), the complete “Back to the Future” trilogy intertwines plot and subplot twists and turns across time zones, locations and alternate realities.  Past, present and future are merged and mingled together into a confusing mishmash of events, explanations, possibilities and “technobabble” (… a bit like my sentence structures).

In the final analysis, however, the story’s dénouement provides another example of, (as Shakespeare would have it), “all’s well that ends well”.

After all, it was a Hollywood film.

This seems to have been a feature of life the past week in Kyrgyzstan.  We have had our attention turned back towards the past, directed at current events and focused on potential futures – both good and bad..

The past: Well, there is still considerable attention being paid to the causes of events in April, May and June.  The international community are pressing for an independent investigation.  A commission has been set up under the auspices of the OSCE which will start work in August and is expected to report in December – that’s two months after the planned parliamentary elections.

In the meantime, the ombudsman has already started his own investigation and declared that he thinks the origins of the June events in Osh lie back in unresolved issues arising from the 1990 bloodletting.

If we thought that the referendum was going to end all the controversy over the legitimacy of the Interim Government, then we were sadly mistaken.  Roza Otunbaeva has now appointed a new team of Ministers to what she’s calling a Technical government, but there are relatively few “new faces”.  Most of them have held posts under either Akaev or Bakiev, or indeed under both of them, just as she had herself, having been Minister of Foreign Affairs for both of them.  One of them, apparently, is still under investigation for “abuse of power” in one of his former posts.  I am not that surprised, in some respects, that she having to “recycle” what might be termed “yesterday’s men”.    Kyrgyzstan is a small country – and there is a limited pool of available “talent”, people with suitable qualifications, knowledge, skills and experience, to fulfill the essential posts at all levels of government and administration, and limited infrastructure for them to obtain and develop these qualities.  By that I do not mean that there aren’t talented people available, there are!

Furthermore, simply because someone worked under a previous regime, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are tainted by all the worst aspects of that regime.  It is perfectly possible that there were simply administrators, after all, that’s what most of the civil servants are, anyway.

The present: Representatives of the international donor community, from 26 countries and 15 international organizations, has been meeting with the Technical Government here in Bishkek.  They have published a fairly massive assessment of the current situation in the country: the damage done in the recent events and what is required to repair, renovate and reconstruct in order to bring about reconciliation and recovery.  I haven’t seen the report itself, but apparently it’s over 170 pages long with loads of appendices – and the people I have spoken to that have seen it are of the opinion that it is a thorough and reliable.

They concludes that something like one billion US dollars is going to be required and address three main areas: meeting essential government expenditures; reconstruction and rehabilitation projects – especially in the South and essential investments for reconstruction and modernization.  Pledges to meet this sum have been made, at least in most areas, but there are still problems.  For example, although it is anticipated that some 60% of this should arrive in the country before the end of the year, some will be subject of International Agreements which have to be approved by the parliament, which won’t be elected until October.  The again, even with the generous terms on offer the extended loans, (over forty years – with an eight year grace period), and low interest rate, (about 1%), will increase the country’s already huge debt burden, according to one estimate that I have seen, by almost 10%.  There is only a certain amount that the country will be able to borrow without burdening itself with “millstone around its neck”, debt repayments that will be difficult to repay or, worse, that it won’t be able to pay off, for years to come.  (As I understand it, for example, Italy only finished finished paying off it’s debts for loans received during the First World War during the 1960′s, well after the end of the Second.)

I can understand why one politician said that “grants would be preferable to loans”!

As a result, as you can imagine, the economy has been receiving a lot of attention again.  There seem to be two main thrusts to the debate: what to do in the immediate short term, (after all the government is still only a “Technical Government”, without “a mandate from the people” and so, it is argued, can only really address immediate issues with any real legitimacy), and making recommendations for long term strategies which can be addressed by the government installed following the elections in October.

I got asked for another interview on this topic during the week – this one conducted by email.  They sent me seven questions and I wrote some responses, however, I would hesitate to call them answers.  (For anyone who is interested, I will post my responses and some of the reasoning behind them on the website.)  I am not an economist and my view on the situation is perhaps a bit more cynical.  It seems to me that whatever measures are adopted, the chances of their being successful in achieving their stated aims depends as much, if not more, on the “chelovechiski factor“, (the human factor), of how they are implemented.

For example, shortly after the events in Osh, it was announced that there would be a “tax holiday” for affected companies in the South.  That sounds all well and good, very helpful, at least for those who aren’t operating in the shadow economy.  Unfortunately, however, there is confusion over these tax holidays, and the tax authorities are still collecting monies.  Entrepreneurs are asking for explanations, but I suspect that what they will get is a “Sir Humphrey” answer of twisted gobbledygook that has the semblance of logic and reasonableness.  (My apologies to anyone reading this who doesn’t recognize the reference to Sir Humphrey Appelby, GCB, KBE, MVO, MA (Oxon), the a master of longwinded obfuscation and manipulation from “Yes, Minister” – surely one of the best, if not THE best, comedy programme to emerge from the BBC.)

The mayor of Osh has even said that “big enterprises not affected by the unrest will be subject to taxation”.  In a way, that sounds reasonable, but I detect in this an outbreak of semantics.  There must be very few enterprises in the south that have not been “affected” by the unrest – even those who did not have their places of business attacked, damaged or destroyed.  The fact that many businesses had to close down, whose clients disappeared, means that they have suffered a loss of business.  Our business, for example, did not suffer directly, (that is: physical damage), during the revolution in April, but we have suffered a considerable loss of business as a result of it.

Controversy, also, still surrounds the dispatch of the OSCE police mission.  There will only be 52 of them and they are not expected to arrive in situ until mid-August, but they have aroused mixed feelings before they actually arrive.  This seems to be justified, at least in part, on the fact that they will not know the language or niceties of cultural differences between the different groups in the south, and one has also said that their safety can’t be guaranteed.  The biggest concern, however, seems to be the possibility that their presence will lead to a “Kosovo” syndrome and lead to the division of the country in the same way as a similar mission there led to the secession of the province from Serbia.  There may well be differences between the two situations but the “fear” is obviously deeply felt and raises once again the spectre of a divided country.  Feelings are running quite high about the issue and there are threats to use what are now traditional Kyrgyz methods of protests: to block roads, picket the OSCE offices and to put up yurts at strategic points, (to support groups of protestors) and I suppose that we have to be grateful that for the moment, at least, there aren’t threats to organize mass protests and storm the White House.  I am not sure where this opposition has comes from.  There seems to be a tendency here for someone, somewhere, (and this time it might well not be one of the other Bakievs), seems to be able to whip up nationalistic support about some issue or other.  (It should be noted, however, that there is support for the initiative from representatives of nationalities that form minority groups in the population.)  It has happened several times, over large questions like the HIPC controversy and smaller ones such as the removal of the fence at the Hyatt.  In the face of this opposition,  however, the government and OSCE are adamant: “the decision has already been made”!

It’s still not clear, (at least not to me), what they are, actually, going to be able to do, but it has to admitted that something needs to be done. According to Roza Otunbaeva the violence in the south continues, although it seems to be isolated individual cases that seem to get little or no publicity.  Indeed, public statements and press releases from the south also seem to assure that the situation is  “without any changes and stable”.  The cases that do occur may not be as serious as their predecessors and, as she asserts, they may be “thoroughly investigated”, but the fact that they are still occurring underlines the fact that there is still tension and a long way to go before we achieve reconciliation and reach a “stable situation” which everyone says is their ultimate aim.  That’s another example of the importance of the “chelovechiski factor“.

The future: In addition to focusing on the long term strategy and measures needed to be undertaken to try and ensure that the economy recovers from the shock it has received this year, there has been a lot of comment on things that need to be addressed, questions that need to be resolved, in order for a sense of stability to be restored to the country.

The Helsinki Convention stresses the need to protect Democracy and preserve human rights whilst the United Nations emphasizes the need to provide better conditions, especially for two particular groups: the refugees displaced during the disorder and who are now returning home and for children.

The plight of children has been receiving a fair amount attention.  Several places have been found for children from the South to attend Children’s camps in Kazakhstan and other places and a youth Drama festival.  Also, on that front, it’s been announced that the school year will start as normal on September 1st, in all regions of the country.  There have been announcements of new text-books being published and printed but I doubt if they will ready in time for September, and I am not sure that they will address some of the vital issues.

There has been a call from one politician to sack all judges in the country.  (For the record: as it happens, seven judges from the Supreme Court and another nineteen from lower courts were dismissed during the week.)  He says that the judiciary have betrayed the trust put in them and performed badly.  He also points out that there are a number of very important, high profile cases coming up in the near future, for which it is necessary to have independent, “honest”, judges.  To me, although there may be a real issue here, it seems a bit harsh “tarring” all judges “with the same brush”.  In our experience, although I don’t agree with with all the decisions that have been handed down, (especially the ones where we lost the case), in most cases the judges showed a professional approach to their work and considered the arguments closely and carefully.

The real issue, of course, is the upcoming elections, due on October 10th.  When, back in April, it was announced that there would new elections and it was planned to create a “parliamentary democracy”, it was suggested that maybe four or five parties would be represented in the new legislative body.  There are, however, lots more parties declaring that they will participate in the election – according to one report, over forty of them.  That seems an awful lot, and a recipe for potential problems future .  Of much more concern, however, are some of fears being expressed about the conduct of the election.  There are calls for the election rules to be revised, as some of them are thought to be inappropriate to the new situation – but, of course, not everyone agrees with that suggestion.  One person has suggested that they should forbid the holding of the election in a period of national emergency – just as the referendum had been, (apparently, successfully), held.  Furthermore there comments of one official that bloodshed is inevitable in the event that the results of the election show signs of having been “falsified and unfair”.  I fear another outbreak of semantics.  For example, I was struck by the fact that the emphasis was apparently on the results, not the process itself.  How can we prevent the claims of anyone who doesn’t do well in the elections from levying a claim of bias, or fraud, or vote buying, or ballot boxes being stuffed, or voters being bussed, or … well, I am sure you get the point.   As well as inviting lots of observers, there needs to be guaranteed access to the press so that parties can attempt to persuade the electorate to vote for them, but with more than forty different parties that’s going to be a massively difficult task.  As in other parts of the world, election expenses are going to have to be clearly monitored and the limit of allowed expenses is not exceeded.    As one comment that I saw on the internet put it, “we are in for an interesting election.”

On a different note, apparently the metrological service are predicting that the winter season will begin early this year, by as much as a month or six weeks.  The city’s central heating service are not sure that they will ready in time, they don’t have their stocks of coal yet and, according to one official, haven’t even placed the order for it yet.  That does not sound good.  Fortunately, the hotel has it’s own heating system, but at home and in the offices we rely on the municipal system.  To make matters worse, the electricity companies are complaining that too many people are using electricity for heating purposes, and the system wasn’t designed for this sort of capacity.  This is not a new issue in itself.  Last year, Bakiev urged people to switch from gas and electricity heating to coal, and many did, so there is much more competition for that coal.  There are suggestions that the tariffs may well have to rise … and that issue was one of the sparks which set the revolution in motion.

An if that wasn’t bad enough, there is speculation that there could be a crisis over the availability of foodstuffs in the autumn and winter.  As a result of the incidents here this year, many farmers have been unable, (or unwilling to risk), planting and tending crops.  The problems over border closures and the distance from sources of alternative supplies have made importing difficult.  There may even be problems because of a drought in Russia causing shortages throughout the whole of the CIS region.  Even if supplies are maintained,  it looks more than likely that prices will rise once more.

On a more personal note, it’s been a busy and, in some ways, a momentous week for me.  There will be some more details on the ianbek.kg website when this and other pages written during the past week are posted at the beginning of next week, after I get back from my monthly trip to Naryn.

It began with an invitation to attend a Tysoo Keshuu Toi, over the weekend.  A toi is a family celebration and this particular one was to celebrate a child’s first birthday.  There was lots of food, vodka – too much vodka, traditional entertainment and even running races.  Even I ran – but could only manage last place despite the fact that I was given a head’s start.

The office and hotel have been a little more crowded as usual as we have had the usual round of students doing their “practica“, (a sort of work observation, work experience or internship).  Normally we take fewer students because at this time of year have lots of clients and are run off our feet, but this year we have been able to to take a few extra, albeit in some cases for shorter periods.  Although it is useful to have a few extra hands to do some of the things that have been building up over the course of the year, it always involves additional work.

If the Vietnamese visa question last week raised an eyebrow or two, then this week we had another example of strange communication, or miscommunication.  We received notification from the IBC (International Business Council, news that the Ministry of Economic Regulation was inviting bids for two tenders with a telephone number to contact for further details.  When we rang them we were told that the tenders had been cancelled.

When I said that it was a “momentous” week, that’s because Tuesday marked an important date for me, personally – an anniversary.  It was on July 27th, 1995, that I arrived here in Kyrgyzstan, so I have been here now for fifteen years.  At that time, I thought I was coming for one year.  Little did I know what I was letting myself in for!

It’s a long postcard this week – sorry about that – but I hope it is understandable with all the twists and turns in the plot.

We are all hoping that we really are on a journey “Back to the Future” and not one “Forward to the Past”, that history won’t repeat itself but like a Hollywood film, that “vsye budet horosho“, (that “all will end well”), or better still, that “they all lived happily ever after”.

Tags: Interesting_Times, Kyrgyzstan, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards