Postcard from Bishkek

At the end of last week there were reports of an Unidentified Flying Object, (UFO), sighted over central Bishkek.  This raised quite a bit of interest … but in fact it is not the first such incident in recent years.  Strange lights in the sky, flying torpedoes on Lake Issyk Kul … and, perhaps the strangest of all, a crash landing of an 600 meter long alien craft at the remote Devil’s Tomb in the Sary Djaz region back in 1991.   Such sightings seem to be becoming such a regular common occurrence, that I am beginning to wonder if we shouldn’t be looking into this as a potential new market for tourists … perhaps the slogan could be something like: “ET – phone home from Bishkek”. Seriously however, on this occasion, however, the experts all seem to agree that it is all connected with the launch of a rocket from the Baikonur Space Center in Kazakhstan.

Well, even if ET didn’t drop into the office this week … we did have several visitors … including several who have been down in Osh and Djalal Abad.  To me, it was interesting that the accounts that they gave tied in very closely with what we have seen in the worldwide press … although, there is actually less coverage of some of the more distressing points here locally – which is, I suppose, understandable.

Djalal Abad is fairly quiet … and most of the damage seems to be in the center.  Osh, on the hand, suffered considerably.  The satellite images show the widespread destruction of whole areas of the city, whereas other areas remain largely untouched.  Although most of the refugees have now returned, many have nowhere to come home to.

The curfew is still operating, and the town falls pretty quiet as it approaches.  Most of the hotels and guesthouses are still operating – but without guests, or at least with very few guests.  Some of the shops and cafes are open, but prices are higher than they were a month ago.

One of my visitors brought his son with him.  Although he lives in a town some distance from Osh itself and they didn’t experience any particular disruption in the events, they have seen many of the casualties and refugees.  He told me that his children have suffered trauma from what they saw and he was taking his children away for a holiday.  In fact there are several camps being organized especially for the young people from the south to try and help them cope and recover from their experiences.

There is a lot of effort being put into trying to locate the people responsible in anyway for the events … arrests have been made – quite a few arrests, in fact.  The trouble is that in trying to pursue their investigations, the law enforcement bodies have given grounds for claims of harassment … and worse … which does not  make the prospects for relieving the situation very bright.  Although there is a lot of comment about the possibility of arranging an international investigation into what happened – impartial, international involvement should, in theory at least, be helpful …  but it seems to be taking an awfully long time to get something concrete organized.  Although understanding the causes is important … it seems to me that a lot of attention needs to be paid to the preset – and the future.  It would remiss of me not to mention that tensions do still exist and concerns about a potential for further unrest breaking out – especially as we approach the forty days after the events in the South that mark the end of the initial stage of mourning for the deceased.

At one meeting during the week, we were asked what effect the events in the South had had upon business … and the answer from one businessman was: “In the South of the country, there has been a big impact … business has virtually come to a halt … but in the North of the country everything is carrying on as usual.”  It struck me that the situation is similar to the difference that we used to refer to between London and North of Watford Gap … or Paris and the Provinces.  If this differentiation between the situation in the North and the South continues, then there is going to have to be a lot of effort put into unifying the country once again.  One government official has suggested that one way to do this might be to move the capital from Bishkek down to Osh – in the same way that Kazakhstan moved it’s capital from Almaty to Astana.  I am not convinced that this would work … or that it is being taken seriously by the government.

The effect on business has been considerable … as could be expected.  What started out as a political revolution looks like turning into an economic and financial crisis.  Official figures show an almost 90% drop in trading activity … and the Kyrgyz economy is basically based on trading.  Even though the Kazakh border is, technically, open and procedures have, technically, been eased,  there are a lot of goods stuck there … including perishable foodstuffs which will soon be rotten and useless.  During the week, there was an incident in the on the same border where some locals were trying to smuggle cattle across the border … they were intercepted by Kazakh border guards and a shootout broke out … leaving casualties on both sides – both dead and wounded.   I think this is an example of the heightened tension that seems to abound … I doubt that, in other times, it would have escalated into such a tragedy so quickly.

The Ministry of finance is predicting a huge shortfall in tax revenues and a large budget deficit for the year … what a surprise.

One problem is that there are no reliable figures or even estimates on the impact.  Different bodies give different estimates and there is only anecdotal evidence.  Just like the death toll figures for last months events which are officially quoted at 313, but many accounts talk of a thousand  … or two.  Nobody knows … and I suspect we will never know … the actual figures.

There are some good signs, however.  After the events in April there were still investors interested in exploiting possibilities in the country … and although many seem to have put they plans on hold whilst they see how the situation develops further following the events down South, others are apparently continuing.  The international donor community is still examining how it can best help the country emerge from its crisis – or crises: political, economic and financial.   One “good sign” which is particularly surprising, to me at least, is that official figures apparently show a 5% growth in GDP during the first six months of the year.  This weekend, at least one hotel on Lake Issyk Kul reported that it was full – there were no vacancies.

Meanwhile the government is undergoing a period of change and reorganization, itself.  The Interim Government that installed itself in April, no longer exists.  Following the referendum, Roza Otunabaeva has declared that we have put that title being us and we now have a “Technical Government”.  It is still only a “Caretaker” government, however, administering and managing the business of government until the parliamentary elections which are slated for October … and a “proper” government will then be installed which will address the major issues, (the location of the capital – if that is a serious suggestion, the future of the Russian and American air bases and so forth.)  Some of the leading characters of the Interim Government have left their posts in order to spend more time with their parties … preparing for the elections.  As members of the government they were prohibited from participating in party politics and so had to chose – continue working in an administrative role or resign and fight the election.

Bishkek and the rest of the country is quiet.  Life goes on.  Even though my diary was pretty empty on Monday morning … lots of things have cropped up during the week to keep me occupied, including: visitors from the south; clients dropping into the office; a number of meetings about the current situation; a meeting about developing tourism in Naryn; arranging our insurance policies; computer problems (they are wonderful when they work … but create hell when something goes wrong); a visit to the cemetery; two birthdays; an evening of Petanque on the lawns of the Hyatt; … and so on.

As I have walked around the city going from meeting to meeting there has been little or no evidence of the turmoil and I have been left wondering if I am not on a different planet myself.  I am not sure what ET would make of it all …

Tags: Expat, Kyrgyzstan, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards