Postcard from Bishkek

I appreciate that Kyrgyzstan is not on everyone’s radar … at least one my correspondents has pointed this out to me, what with the numerous other crisis points around the world.  Natural disasters, man-made disasters, war situations and civil strife … indeed, it all seems a bit apocalyptic.  But then, I’ve had that particular feeling before and, at the moment, I am not expecting an imminent Armageddon.

I know that I often appear to be both cynical and pessimistic, (I don’t think that am really either), but I still see potential for progress in the future … on both the local and the global scale.  I have hopes – I am tempted to say “high hopes” – for what the future may bring.   I am reminded of the old, sage, advice: “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”

As it turns out, Thursday was a momentous day, a turning point, for the governments of both the United Kingdom and the Kyrgyz Republic, and could be influential in the fulfillment of the hopes and aspirations of many.

In Britain, the new government sat round the Cabinet table for the first time since the election … conservatives and Liberals together … hardly natural allies in the normal course of events.  As it happens, this week I downloaded and read an essay on the one of the most significant elections in British history – not the 2010 election, but the 1906 election, when the Liberal Party doubled their representation in Parliament in an astounding victory and was the last that the Liberals formed a government on their own.   On that occasion, of course, they ousted a conservative government, and the fledgling Labour Party hadn’t really come into existence.  How times have changed.

In Kyrgyzstan, the Interim Government faced their biggest challenge since the ousting of President Bakiev, on April 7th and the Maevka incident.  Maevka probably doesn’t really count because it didn’t really represent an attempt to displace the new authorities.

But more of that later.

The week had started slowly and uneventfully … this apparent “calm before the storm” could have had something to do with the fact that Monday was a Public Holiday, (Dehn Pobeda – Victory Day), commemorating the end of the Second World War.  It was marked, mainly, by a flurry of further analyses into what happened, and why.  There were, for example, reports from Byelorussia about the reasons for Lukashenko’s support for Bakiev.  Several highlighted the rise of religion as a factor in the region, citing recent controversy over the veil – just as similar controversies have arisen elsewhere, in Europe, for example, and the possible rise in militancy.  This has, in fact, been a subject of discussion for time.

There were amendments to several decrees of the Interim Government … reports about investigations into the operations at the Manas transit base … reports of yet more money being found in government safes … and so on.

Attention was focused on two or three main issues.  The first is the borders, which remain closed despite assurances that they would open.  This is creating a stranglehold on the local economy … several firms cannot export their goods to Kazakhstan and beyond and as Kyrgyzstan is a conduit for trade with China, (which is largely one way), is likely to cause serious problems … on both sides of the border.   Of particular concern is the supply of fuel … there are already informal, self imposed, restrictions on the sale of petrol and diesel fuel … mainly imposed by the oil companies themselves because there just isn’t enough to go around, despite deliveries from Russia and Kazakhstan.

The situation with our neighbours, Kazakhstan, is very interesting … I have said before that it is not clear why they continue to keep the border closed … for example, if they are afraid of Kyrgyzstan “exporting revolution” or want to put pressure on protecting Kazakh interests and investments in the country.  There are accounts that some of Bakiev’s family and friends are currently in Kazakhstan, (although that denied officially).  This week it was announced that they have increased the President’s powers – and given him immunity whilst in office (… I surprised that they didn’t have this already, Kyrgyzstan did, and they seem to have regretted it!)

Another issue to command attention is the ongoing debate about the new version of the constitution which is being drafted … focusing during the week on whether or not to include the word “secular”, and the status of the Russian language … although there is still the ongoing debate about what form of republic to create, a Presidential or Parliamentarian Democracy.  This time I thought of the clichés about “contemplating your own navel” and Nero, “fiddling whilst Rome burned”.

I was a little taken aback to see one analysis in the early part of the week refer to the situation here in the country as being akin to “sitting on a powder keg”.  Certainly there were tensions and uncertainties about how events would unfold, but it seemed to be mainly talk, speculation and rumour.

Then the storm clouds gathered and broke.

Once again, the analogy with the “phoney war” springs to mind.  Hitler used this period to gather his forces and make preparations … and even in the Battle of France it would have been possible to stop the onslaught with bold and decisive action, but the British and the French had been lulled into a false sense of security that when the attack did come, it caught them unawares and the British army were saved only by the “miracle” of Dunkirk.  A similar thing occurred in the lead up to Operation Barbarosa when Stalin was caught on the hop, even though the KGB had advance warning of the enemy’s intentions.

If the Easter Revolution seemed like a re-run of the Tulip Revolution, five years earlier, invoking a sense of Déjà vu, then Thursday seemed to be a rerun of the tactics that led up to the Revolution.  Individual protests took place at various places around the country, involving the seizure of government buildings and the “promise” of moving the protest back to the capital.

I suppose that you could say that the action all began on Wednesday.  There were three “meetings” which all happened in the Central Square (that’s not the Main Square – Ala Too Square – but the one behind it … where the Parliament building is … ), one in support of the previous Mayor who was “sacked” by the interim government; a Memorial Service in memory of the 85, (sorry, it’s now 86 another one died this week after a month in a coma), deceased of April 7^th, and a third in support in support of the Interim Government … Some shops in the city cleared the shelves and closed – just in case but, fortunately, there weren’t any real clashes between them.  Everyone dispersed, but further demonstrations were planned for the next day.

Then on the Thursday came the events in Osh, Djalal Abad and Batken, the three Southern regions of the country.  The offices of the local administrations in the south of the country, Osh, Djalal Abad and Batken were “stormed” by supporters of the deposed President, with demands to reinstate his appointees.  In Batken, the authorities managed to secure the release of the building, but in the other two oblasts, the occupation continued and a rally in Djalal Abad lasted up until Midnight.

This time the police stood by … they have promised not to take part in politics, and I presume that was the reason, although I haven’t seen that cited anywhere.  As far as I aware, there was fighting between the supporters of the interim government and those claiming to be supporting Bakiev.  I say “claiming” to support, because the committee that has been set up with this aim in mind says that the Bakiev’s are not involved, although the Interim government clearly see his hands, or those or people closely involved with him, behind the outbreaks. that I mentioned above.

Back in Bishkek there were more meetings and a motorcade of supporters of the Interim Government who would provide “security” in the event of further troubles.  There are large numbers of people who are being organized as “patrols” to help maintain law and order … although, on one hand that is encouraging … on the other I also find it a little worrying.

During the day national TV broadcast some recordings of telephone conversations between one of the party leaders who has been critical of the Interim Government.   The conversations were broadcast in Russian using a voice over, and I have only seen the English translations of the edited transcripts, so it is difficult for me to comment in detail about what they may or not contain but he seems to have been making arrangements for such a meeting of the Parliament … and possibly to be giving instructions for holding the protest meetings in Osh and Djalal Abad, including taking officials as hostages.  He was arrested on Friday in a city South of Osh.  (There has been some discussion about whether the phonetaps were legal – but apparently they were authorized, so were).

Also, the leader of the Communist Party, who had been to Moscow for a function, was detained for questioning on his return on his return to Bishkek.  He has been critical of the Interim Government, claiming that Bakiev’s Resignation was not in the right format, was never accepted by the Parliament and so is invalid … in short, he is still the de jure President.  Others are also arguing that the Parliament needs to meet, and could legitimize the Interim Government … and there are plans for the deputies to gather in order to conduct a session … but no-one can tell what the result of such an assembly would be.       Intriguingly, it seems that he met some people from the former regime whilst he was in Moscow.

So, the scene was set for further intrigues and confrontation … and on Friday, we got them.

Protests continued in Osh and Djalal Abad … and groups representing the two camps, supports of Bakiev and those of the interim government gathered … clashes were inevitable … and happened.  Shots were fired.  About sixty people were injured, some from gunshots, and there was at least one death, (the latest report says two … but several of the injured are in a critical state).  The Interim Government, however, claim to be in control of most of the Southern regions and that only limited, isolated local areas, such as around certain buildings are under the control of Bakiev’s supporters.  More revelations emerged about who was “responsible” for arranging and financing the disorders.

Overnight the troubles extended to the village of Teit, Bakiev’s home village, where five houses belonging to him and some of his relatives were burned to the ground.

Finance has played an important role in the weeks events … I suppose everything boils down to money, the bottom line, in the end.  As well as money in different currencies being found in a government safe, seized and placed in a special account in the National Bank, there has been accusation and counter accusation.  Money, it is claimed has been paid into the bank accounts of several members of the Interim Government, who all deny it, and claim it is all plot to discredit them by Bakiev or his supporters.  There are also claims about large sums of money being spent on the demonstrations – the security services say USD1 million.  Two people were arrested in Bishkek for handing money to people for participating in the protest meetings.  When they were arrested, between them they had 88000 som (about USD2000), and gossip has it they were paying something like 1000 som each.

All this has made everyone feel a little uneasy … but I’m not sure about feeling as if we are “sitting on a powder keg”.  Certainly there is nervousness and anxiety about what the future will bring … but that is to be expected given the events that are unfolding around us.

The good, however, is that although the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office have issued a revised Travel Warning for Kyrgyzstan, noting these recent events, they haven’t changed the overall level of their advice … there are still not advising restrictions on travel to the country.  So, they don’t anticipate another revolution or civil war.

I think that agree with them … although I have to admit the possibility exists, who knows?  (Someone once said to me, “America may be ‘The Land of Opportunity’, but in Kyrgyzstan anything can happen …”). I can tell you what happened and what is happening, but no one can say with any certainty what will happen … although we can hope.   Of course, I hope there won’t be yet another revolution or a civil war, but more than that … I don’t think there will be.

In the meantime, as is usually the case here, most people are too busy trying to get on with their lives and earn their daily bread … very few are actually actively involved in “politics” … daily life goes on … the streets are generally quiet and subdued … most shops are open … schools, offices, businesses, etc. are working.  Today, Saturday, the sun is shining and life continues.  Indeed, most of the people from our office have gone into the mountains for the day … probably their last chance to relax before the tourist season starts in earnest, (assuming and hoping that it does).

Once again, I could say more, but I think that will do for now …

Tags: Expat, Interesting_Times, Kyrgyzstan, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards