Postcard from Bishkek

This week has been like trying to solve a gigantic jigsaw puzzle.

It seems as if I have left the land of reality and have settled to live in a land of rumour and counter rumour, speculation and supposition, ambiguity and indecision, doubt and uncertainty.  There is a constant stream of News reports, gossip and eye witness accounts provide snippets of information which you feel that, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, should provide a complete overall picture if only they can be assembled properly.  Unfortunately, each piece gives only a small detail of the whole and it is hard to see how they fit together.   To make matters worse, it sometimes feels as if some pieces are missing and others have come from a different puzzle and have, somehow, got mixed up.

Perhaps there are three, or four, puzzles – all similar but different in vital respects.  For example: What happened?, What is happening?, What is going to happen?

What happened?

Everyday seems to bring more revelations about the events that took place, particularly on the 6th and 7th of April.  Not just on those days, but what led up to them, and what has happened subsequently.  New accounts, new evidence, is being revealed daily, but can we believe it all?  Not all of the evidence is consistent … the Interim Government even had to resort to issuing a statement criticising some of the accounts that are circulating about who did and didn’t fire on the protesters as being inaccurate and unhelpful.

There have been several accounts published in the media, but one of the most insightful, direct and critical of the role played by practically everyone, was issued by the International Crisis Group, (www.crisisgroup.org) .  They maintain an office here in Bishkek, so were able to see things in context and how things developed over a period with a local perspective, unlike the press reports written by journalists who were parachuted into to cover a crisis “hotspot”.  (Please don’t misunderstand me … I am not saying that these journalists “got it wrong”, I have seen some very good analyses in the press as well.)

Attention is not limited to just the events of April 6th and 7th.  Businesses, in particular, are facing all sorts of questioning about their affairs during the Bakiev years … what was their relationship with the family?, explain this or that contract or transaction.  This isn’t a “witch hunt”, the authorities maintain, but they also follow this up with “but cannot let them (the family) escape with stealing millions of dollars.”

It may not be a witch hunt but the new authorities are pursuing several promionent characters from the previous administration … including the former President, Bakiev himself.  They have passed a Decree stripping him of his Presidential immunity and are seeking his extradition.  It is not clear what authority they have to do this … presidential immunity is provided for in the constitution and legislation which is superior to decisions of a government … but they are going for it.

This is all typical of the word, or concept, I seem to come across a lot in various meetings and press reports as members of the interim government justify the revolution: “justice”.  They know that there is a problem of legitimacy … I even heard one official say “yes, we are illegitimate, …” and then after a short pause, “… and revolutionaries.”  One point that I have heard made several times is that revolutions happen, subsequently resulting in “illegitimate governments”, but the situation regularizes itself, and that is what is happening here.  Revolutions occur because of injustice, and seek to “right wrongs” that have occurred or been imposed on society and the restoration of justice.

We’ll see … time will tell and we await the judgment of history … but then, as Winston Churchill commented, “History is written by the victors.”

Let’s see who eventually turns out to “win” … and hope for a “win-win” situation, although I fear that everyone will be losers.

What is happening?

Monday started with the news that the former Interior Minister had been arrested in Moscow, and deported back to Kyrgyzstan.  On the sixth he had gone to Talas in the West of the country to talk to the authorities and the demonstrators, but had been taken hostage and beaten in the fracas.  Severely beaten.  It was even reported at the time that he had died from his wounds.  As it happens, he survived and was ransomed by his family … for a huge sum … and although he was then taken in for questioning about his role in several events leading up to the revolution, he was in dire need of medical treatment so he was whisked off to Moscow to see specialists there.  Whilst in Moscow he “disappeared” only to be picked up by the security services who promptly returned him Kyrgyzstan where the questioning continued and the doctors continued to monitor his condition.  As the week cam to an end it was announced he needed urgent brain surgery.

In the meantime friends and relatives in his home region have taken to protesting his arrest.  The have blocked the main Bishkek/Osh road and people cannot pass except for when they open it for a short period overnight.  This form of “family protest” is becoming a tendency, cropping up at different places around the republic in support of this or that person who has been arrested.

Investigations into the Bakiev financial empire continue … there are several different official bodies conducting investigations.  Some companies have been taken back into state ownership, (nationalized), but others are to have special administrators or monitors appointed.  Some of the resorts on Lake Issyk Kul are likely to be nationalized and handed over to the local authorities there.

There are still problems with the borders.  The Chinese border has been open virtually all through the crisis, which is quite unusual as the Chinese tend to be very sensitive about security and the possibility of problems in neighbouring countries.  The borders with the other three neighbouring countries, all former Soviet states, are all subject to restrictions.  At the moment foreigners, such as tourists, are allowed to cross the border, but local cannot unless they are returning home.  This is causing all sorts of problems because Kyrgyzstan is basically a transit country for both tourists and the trade of goods, and whilst the Kazakh border is closed, Kyrgyzstan has problems with the import and export of goods.

Exactly why the Kazakhs have kept the border closed is a good question.  Could it be that they are concerned about the risk of further unrest in the country?, or afraid of Kyrgyzstan “exporting” revolution to Kazakhstan?, or are they concerned at protecting their investments here, the banks, construction companies, resorts on Lake Issyk Kul?, or what …?

One of the saddest things I have encountered is the number of people who have apparently decided that “enough is enough” and that they want to emigrate.  It is mainly people who have suffered in one way or another from the events, (inhabitants of Maevka, shop keepers and the like), but it also includes a lot of people who weren’t.  Of course, those that are thinking about emigration are not ethnic Kyrgyz.  That’s not to say that all the Russians, Ukranians, etc., are seeking to emigrate.  Some can’t … they can’t afford it … Others don’t want to … this is their home, their motherland, they were born here.

(I was told one story that back in 1999, when the Batken incidents occurred, one police officer that I know, an ethnic Russian, wrote to his superiors requesting to be sent to Batken to help fight the insurgents who had crossed the border from Tajikistan, “in order to protect my homeland”.)

When I first came to Kyrgyzstan I was told of an analysis that questioned the viability of Kyrgyzstan as a country … along with some of the other former Soviet states) and suggested that within five years it would eventually dissolve into two parts, with the north being assimilated into Kazakhstan and the south being subsumed by Uzbekistan.   I didn’t believe it then and I don’t think it is likely now.  Down South, however, leaflets have appeared which suggest that southern Kyrgyzstan needs autonomy … a separate state or perhaps a republic within a federation.  Here we are, hearing assertions for various prominent people that there is no North-South divide, that the clan system is a thing of the past, that the country is a single unified state, but then things happen to show that tensions do still exist.

Shortly after the Easter Revolution the Interim government made a somewhat controversial decision to change the Mayor of Bishkek.  At this point in time, administrative posts in local government, such as the governors of oblasts, city mayors and akims (chairman) of local councils, were all appointed posts, not elected ones.  Some politicians have said that they want to see these posts elected under the new consitution. The Mayor of the capital was appointed by the President, and it was a very important position, held in the past by many people who either been Prime Minister in the past, or would be future Prime Ministers.    The last of the Mayors appointed by President Bakiev had been relatively popular and seemed to really care about getting things done in the city.  A proramme of civic  works, for example, was undertaken to clean up the city along with a number of landscaping projects.  The cynic in me might be tempted to say that the programme, (which had been started under a previous Mayor but pursued by the new incumbent with gusto), was aimed at creating favourable conditions for last year’s Presidential elections as it not only made a difference to the way the city looked,  but also served as a job creation scheme.  These would in turn have a psychological effect and foster a sense of pride amongst the inhabitants for their city.  Removing him from office proved to be controversial because, many of the ordinary citizens of Bishkek felt that the sitting Mayor really cared about the city, worked for the city and was making a real difference to the city.  Some of them actually felt so strong about it that they campaigned to lobby the interim government.  Despite that, it was decided to replace him.  It was said that there were questions that he had to answer, and a criminal investigation was initiated.  He denied any wrong doing, and claimed that his removal from office was, simply, “politically motivated”.  His replacement has been active, and continued the work which was already underway.  It’s probably too early to make any judgement on his performance, as he has only been in post for a couple of weeks, but I have noticed one thing in particular, which I felt is worth a comment.   My email is now receiving a series of messages from “Bishkek Meria“, which emanate from the Municipality’s  Public Relations Department.  In the past, the only messages I can remember receiving from them were: an appeal from the elected councillors for calm  on April 7th,  following the events and civil disturbances  in Talas the previous day, and later an appeal NOT tom replace the sitting Mayor. In the last two weeks, since the appointment of the new Mayor following the revolution, I have received a small barrage of such messages, on a wide variety of topics, ranging from the survey of food prices in local markets, (which are monitored by the local authority), to meetings held between the Mayor and different groups, (such as with the Higher Education institutions located in the capital).  At the moment, it seems to me to be a bit disorganized … but it is an indication that “life goes on”.

One of the message which dropped into my mailbox last week was an Press Release from the Bishkek Meria, (the local, municipal, authority) about preparations for City Day – Dehn Goroda.  Dehn Goroda – City Day – is a traditional “holiday” in Russia and countries of the former Soviet Union. The day is designed to instill interest and pride in the city amongst its inhabitants.  Each city will have it’s assigned day, which often celebrates the founding of the city, the date being fixed accordingly.  It is usually held on a Sunday, however, events organized to commemorate the occasion may take place over an extended period and if the allocated day is a Sunday, then they will usually start on the previous day, (the Saturday), and will often conclude with a firework display.  There is usually a lot of preparation work in order to clean the city and make it presentable.  Buildings will be decorated, street bunting and posters erected.   Events may include concerts, festivals and parades in which the city, (Mayor, etc.) will play a leading role, but the idea is to involve as many of the local citizens as possible, if not all of them.   This year, however,  the day passed almost unnoticed … apart from the emails.  It was decided that in the light of recent events, (The Easter Revolution of April 7th, when 85 people died and the President was overthrown and replaced by a provisional, interim government … and also other civil disturbances which also resulted in several deaths), that although the day would still be commemorated, there would be no “celebrations” as such .

It’s not the only holiday that is being affected by the revolution.  Today is May Day, May 1st, International Labour Day.  It used to be a big holiday in the Soviet Union, but has been “downgraded” in recent times.  Last year, only a few faithful communists and socialists gathered in the main square where once would have been massive parades and celebrations.  I’ll go into town later in the day to see what is happening, but I expect it to be a rather subdued affair.  Quite what will happen on Wednesday, (May 5th – Constitution Day), I have no idea.  The constitution is open for debate with plans to revise it over the summer, before elections in October, (on 10th October … 10/10/10).  The week will end with Victory Day on May 9th, commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two … again, I am not sure what “celebrations” the people will feel are appropriate.

What is going to happen?

This is perhaps the most difficult.  The future is open to all sorts of possibilities … no-one knows what will happen, but there are many people surmising and predicting possible scenarios.

Some of those scenarios are positive and full of hope for a brighter future.  Others are more pessimistic, pointing to the possibility of further strife, (ethnic regional … or other).

Several “deadlines” have been announced by one group or another for their respective demands to be met.  It is not clear what action they will take if their demands aren’t met.  One such deadline, for example, is May 17th, when apparently there are to be nationwide protests held in support of deposed President Bakiev.  Now, I know that I might well be sitting safe and sound in my “ivory tower” here in Bishkek, but I cannot see that much support for Bakiev.   I may yet have to eat my words, but I think that they may be lucky to get more than a couple of thousand people, throughout the country, out and about to support the protests.  But then … with an example, no two examples, from recent history of how easy it is for a few thousand protestors to create havoc and cause a change in government, not just a change of policy, their is a feeling that, although we may well be through the worst, “it ain’t over yet.”

I went to one meeting during the week, with a delegation from one of the larger international organizations.  Like many of the others in town at the moment, they are in town to “get a feel for the situation”.  We discussed what had happened, what is happening, and what we thought would happen.  When it was my turn to speak, I thanked them for giving me the chance to attend and have my say, but that I normally found these events to be rather distressing, disturbing and depressing.  They problem is that, by their very nature, like news reports, they tend concentrate on the problems – not on the positive and potential for good that can arise.

One of the positive things I think I have perceived in all that has transpired, is that the interim government, (or at least some of the members of the interim government), have a very clear feel of their position, their role and responsibilities.  When it came to making a decision about the American airbase for example, they commented that they did not have a mandate to end the agreement allowing the Americans to lease it.  That was a decision for the new government to take, and so they announced that the lease would be extended … for another year.  That implies, of course, that it is still an open question and the Americans are not “out of the woods” yet.  There is still quite a lot of opposition here, much commentary, and revelations that might arise from the shenanigans in the Congressional enquiry might well create a revolution of their own.

Another is that one member of the interim government has shown considerable foresight and practicality, by recognizing that Kyrgyzstan is unlikely to receive any new foreign investment until November, at the earliest, (i.e. after the elections).  He then stressed the importance of looking after existing investments.    I even heard one official say to a group of existing investors: “Please don’t leave, don’t pack up and go.  We need you!”  Someone, some people, are looking forward to the future, not just back to the past and thinking of how they can profit from the present uncertainty.

Now none of this uncertainty is surprising.  It happens all the time, in all societies, but it seems more poignant in the extraordinary times that we are experiencing.

Even the weather has been unsettled: one day, a short sleeved shirt proved more than adequate as I went from meeting to meeting but the next I needed a vest, shirt, sweater and cardigan … and if I ventured outdoors then a warm jacket was necessary.  One day the sun was shining brightly but the next time I ventured out of the office the sky was overcast, then in the afternoon, as I left for another meeting, I was told it was raining.  When I came back I came back I commented that it wasn’t really raining, it wasn’t even drizzle, it was spitting as if trying to rain, to which one of staff commented that I was British and therefore used to rain of a different sort – to them it was rain.  Later it did rain, even by British standards.  As John says, the weather can change so quickly here.

I could say a lot more.  I haven’t listed all the rumours and counter rumours, gossip and suppositious, that I have heard during the week.  Nor have I listed all the past, present and potential future events.  I hope, however, that I have given you a sufficient sample for you to get a feel of what is going on in Bishkek, and to see some of the “jigsaw pieces” of the situation in Kyrgyzstan at the present time,.

Tags: Expat, Kyrgyzstan, Life_in_Kyrgyzstan, Weekly_Postcards