Postcard from Bishkek

This week, there was an earthquake in eastern Kazakhstan which, according to the United States Geological Survey, measured 4.5 on the Richter scale, (or whatever modification of the scale they use these days).  Some tremors were apparently felt here in Bishkek, although it wasn’t serious and I can’t say that I was particularly aware of the event until I saw the reports in the local media.

Now, earthquakes are often associated with “aftershocks” … so I suppose it should come as no surprise that Revolutions are followed by continuous protests.

During the past week we’ve seen a number of such “aftershocks”.

The sense of relief and optimism that everyone felt at the end of last week when it became known that President Bakiev had resigned and flown from Djalal Abad to neighbouring Kazakhstan, and apparently removing a source of great uncertainty and tension, was short lived.  It lasted just a couple of days, over the weekend.  I suppose:

• It was the calm before the storm;
• it was like the moment before the onslaught of a Tsunami, when an eerie silence accompanies the receeding waters, before they return with vengence to wreak havoc and chaos;
• it could be compared to those days of the “phoney war” at the end of 1939, when the armies of the allies camped out in France, preparing to face the Germans … only to be caught by surprise when the Blitzkrieg finally came.

Here, I’ll give a brief outline of some of the “aftershocks” that we’ve experienced, but I’ll post more details on my personal website, (the equivalent of a blog, but I started it before blogs came into vogue): ianbek.kg.  If you want to read a bit more detail, then please feel free to go and have look.

(Unfortunately, because of the way it works the new pages probably won’t be posted until sometime on Monday.)

Anyway, this week … well, it’s been another busy week …

It began with The Maevka incident – a group people from out of town held a protest rally to demand that land be allocated to them for building homes.  They wouldn’t listen to the representatives of the interim government and a large number went to the village of Maevka, on the outskirts of Bishkek to mark out plots of land and “sieze” them.  The police were late getting there, for whatever reason, and in the resulting fracas five more people died.

There has been some suggestion that the violence had an element of ethnic conflict, but that is not clear.  Virtually all of the official statements, (for example, from the government here in Kyrgyzstan, from Russian and Turkish leaders), deny this, but the region does have a long history of ethnic tension.

The unrest has led to appeals to the government form various sectors of Kyrgyz society, and from abroad, to ensure Safety and Security.  The government make statements that the situation is under control, but they have authorised the police to shoot at demonstrators “with the intent to kill” in the event of a repeat of such violent outbursts.  This seems a little odd when it is remembered that they came to power and claim part of their legitimacy from the fact that the previous authorities shot at demonstrators, resulting in so many deaths.

The police, themselves, have also been protesting and are threatening to go on strike if their demands aren’t met.  Although they were late getting to Maevka, they have otherwise done a reasonable task in keeping order, and have been assisted by volunteers who have formed a sort of “civil guard” to help patrol the streets at night.

Bakiev has now left Kazakhstan and arrived in Minsk, Belorussia, where he was welcomed by President Lukashenko.  There he astounded everyone by stating that he did not recognise his resignation as valid,  that he was still the legitimate elected President of Kyrgyzstan, calling the interim government bandits and gangsters, and asked world leaders not to recognise them.  A press spokesman for his one time ally, Russians, promptly told the media that they considered his resignation as effective and the interim government as the new authority in Kyrgyzstan.

Other organizations have also come out offering support, recognition and aid for the new authorities … so it looks as if his appeal has fallen on deaf ears.

The reason for renouncing his resignation was that he felt the interim government had reneged on their part of the deal which he understood to be to guarantee the safety of him and his family, but some of his family still in Kyrgyzstan are “being persecuted”,  (one of Bakiev’s brothers has disappeared … some say kidnapped and shots were reported by the person he was talking to on the phone at the time), and so he felt that the deal was off.

Despite the renunciation, he has also said that he doesn’t  “”intend to return to Kyrgyzstan as president,”"

Oddly enough, the Mufti, (an Islamic religious leader), who is said to have had close ties with Bakiev, has also disappeared.

The affairs of the Bakievs have been undergoing scrutiny in Bishkek.  Banks have been put under special administration, companies have been put on notice that an investigation is ongoing to ascertain the full extent of the “Bakiev empire” and influence.  Some of the more unpopular measures of his government, especially the increased tariffs for energy and heating have been reversed; some companies have been put on notice that they are likely to be renationalized; … and so on.

An inquiry into the events of April 7th is underway, and the interim government have said that they will seek Bakiev’s extradition following it.  Other arrest warrants and extradition requests for some members of his family and associates have apparently been issued.

Apart from the Maevka incident, which was widely reported here and in Russia, but received only limited coverage in the West as far as I can tell – presumably because there was so much else going on in the world: elections, volcanic eruptions, sports matches and the like – everything is fairly quiet here.  The streets are quiet and people seem to be enjoying the sunshine.

That is not to say that everything is hunky dory.

Fortunately the “pro Bakiev” demonstrations in the south have been more or less peaceful, even if the protestors have seized and conducted a sit-in in some government buildings.

There is still uncertainty and a certain amount of tension in the air … but, as I said last week, life is returning to normal.  There have, for example, been incidents down in the south, demonstrations in support of the “deposed president”, but they have passed.  I am told that the resident in another part of the country are “feeling empowered” … which sounds pretty euphemistic for something unpleasant, but, so far, everyday life on the streets is showing signs of “returning to normality”.

However, The American State Department have issued a travel warning which says:

“We urge US citizens to defer travel to the Kyrgyz Republic until the security situation improves, and alert US citizens travelling or residing in the Kyrgyz Republic of the potential for further instability, … There remains a persistent danger of further demonstrations, unrest, and crime. Demonstrations could occur without warning, sometimes resulting in injury or death,… “

Although this sounds pretty worrying, it was not as bad as I thought it would be.  In 2001, the Americans evacuated everyone in response to the 9/11 incident in New York, even though they didn’t evacuate Americans from neighbouring countries.  In 2005, virtually all the international consultants were evacuated by the UN.  This time, they have simply assisted in evacuating non essential personnel, (families and so on), but they haven’t insisted.  The haven’t said “Don’t travel to Kyrgyzstan”, instead “urging” people to “defer” their travel plans.  This will still put people off, consultants, businessmen, tourists, and cause problems with travel insurance, but I took it as a sign that although they think the situation is volatile, it didn’t warrant drastic action.

This is in line with the advice of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office: “we advise against all but essential travel to Kyrgyzstan“, and continues: “We advise all British nationals to avoid demonstrations and large gatherings while in Kyrgyzstan. Although the immediate situation in Kyrgyzstan has calmed down from two weeks ago, there is an ongoing risk of instability and there continue to be small incidents involving individual and groups of criminals.  We also advise all British nationals to continue to stay indoors after dark.”

The interim government have promised a new constitution and elections within six months.  Work has already started on drafting a constitution … yet another constitution, I’ve lost count of how many there have been since Independence in 1991 … which will create a parliamentary democracy and a presidency with severely restricted powers compared to what we have been used to, here.  The idea is to prevent history repeating itself by taking the reins of power out of just one pair of hands.  Dates have already been set for the referendum and the subsequent elections.

If I have any concerns about this process, it is about how the members of the interim government and other interested parties will be able to reconcile their differences and reach a compromise which will be effective.  A parliamentary democracy, it seems to me, is best suited to a community where there are definite, identifiable, ideological differences between parties … but that doesn’t seem to be the case here.  Most of the parties here, however, are regionally based, probably drawing on clan ties and affinities.

If all of these confusing twists and turns weren’t enough, then we have also had to cope with the effects of a volcanic eruption – which may seem a bit odd as we don’t have any volcanoes in Kyrgyzstan.  This particular eruption was, of course, the “Eyjafjallajoekull” eruption in Iceland which caused the closure of airports and cancellation of flights throughout Europe.  I wrote last week about how I had decided against taking a trip to the World Exhibition of Sustainable Mountain Development in Grenoble, France, at the end of April, as a result of the Easter Revolution.  As it happens, even if I hadn’t taken that decision, I almost certainly would have had problems making the journey.  Ludmila, who sent to represent the company at the exhibition, was able to fly to Moscow, where she was stranded as Paris was still closed.  She is resourceful lady, however, and managed to complete the journey traveling via Rome and Milan, arriving in Paris a later than planned and thoroughly exhausted.

Once again, the week has ended on a high note … just as it did last week.   Friday has brought a sense of relief … with several good bits of news:

One good point, totally unrelated to recent events, (or at least I preseume it is totally unrelated), is that as I was leaving the IBC meeting, I took a phone call on my mobile.  Normally I hate mobile phones, but I was really pleased to take this call.  It was from an American working in an international organization here in Bishkek, and she told me that she was going to try and get approval to support a “Guides Training Course” which KATO (the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators) had started running when I was President a few years ago.  We lost our main source of funding a couple of years ago and the course has been under threat ever since … we are running it later next month, but on a shoestring budget, so this was very welcome news.  Even though it is not yet a “done deal”, it meant that I returned home with a spring in my step.

Another was that Kurmanbek Bakiev had cleared up the mystery as why he had renounced his resignation as President.  Apart from clearing up a mystery, the fact that he also announced that he did not intend to return to Kyrgyzstan as President removed some of the uncertainty that his earlier statement had created.

The main highspot of the day, (of the week), however, was that Roza Otunbaeva, the leader of the Interim Government, had agreed to attend a meeting, a “Round Table”  with IBC members.  It was timetabled to start at three o’clock and to everyone’s amazement, it actually started at two minutes past three.  That must be a record, and is not in keeping with local tradition … most meetings start late as the main speaker is invariably late.  I couldn’t help feeling that this must, indeed, have been a good sign … a sign that things were due to change.  It wasn’t just “business as usual!”

The room was crowded, but not full, there were a few spare seats.  I put that down to the fact that we only got final confirmation that the meeting could go ahead last night and the invitations to participate had gone out only a few hours before, that morning.  For example, the chairman of the Kumtor Gold mine, (Kyrgyzstan’s biggest investment – which is so important that official economic statistics are often given in two forms: with and without Kumtor), was on a site visit and so unable to attend and had to someone else to represent the company.  There were, however, lots of press …

After the initial speeches of welcome … thanking her for finding the time in her crowded schedule to come and meet representatives of the business community, and that sort of thing … she made a short speech, herself.  I have heard a lot of politicians make speeches and this one was quite refreshing … it was quite homely, and I couldn’t help reflecting that it was a bit like Franklin D Roosevelt’s “fireside” chats that used to be broadcast on the radio.

She seemed to say all the right sort of things … for example, she stressed that we mustn’t “lose the upcoming tourist season” … just the right sort of thing to say to show that she knows, she cares, and to garner support from those who are working in the industry.  She also said, however, that Kyrgyzstan’s recent success in improving it’s ratings in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index was laudable, but there was still a lot of work to do because the country’s rating in the Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption index was so appallingly low.  Now, that was a refreshing comment to hear.

Then came time for contributions from the floor – from businessmen, about what concerns they had.  There were a lot of comments from the mining industry … who were delighted to hear her refer to them as “the wings of Kyrgyzstan’s development”!  She took the questions comments on board and did her best to answer them as best she could, but was not afraid to say, “I don’t know, … I’ll have to get someone on it and get back to you” …   Now, that was a refreshing comment to hear.

All in all, I came away with a greater sense of optimism.  I’m not naive, however, and I know that it is easy to “say the right thing”.  President Akaev was a good speaker and often “said the right thing”.  Believe it or not, I think that President Bakiev was also good at “saying the right thing” … it’s just that the words did not always turn into action … did not reflect the reality of what happened “on the street”.  That where the real challenge lies now.  I am sure that she, too, knows that.

So, as to my prognosis for the future … oddly enough, at the moment it is quite positive.  So much so, that when I have been asked by some people about my plans for evacuation should the situation deteriorate I have been able to say quite confidently that: “at the moment I have none.  I have been here for fifteen years already, and this is now my home.  I have ties here, and I still have a sense of optimism for the future, and so I see no reason to worry about it … as yet.  ”

I hope I am not forced to eat these words sometime in the future, but when I have been asked if I think that there will be more such incidents in the future.  Although I admit that it is possible, I don’t think it is likely.  There will be rallies, protests  demonstrations and “meetings”, as people try to press  their “demands”, I suspect that there has already been a backlash against turning to violence as a means to achieve them … especially as it cost yet more lives. Indeed, (and it feels hard saying this), one of the good things about the Maevka incident is that it did shock people, and I get the feeling that they are saying and feeling: “enough is enough” … those five deaths on Monday, following the eighty five on April 7th, might just have been “the last straw”.

All in all, once again, it’s been a long week.  I am looking forward to the weekend.

Oh, yes, and on a more personal note: The shop next door, “Prague” has reopened … so I now have a supply of Tonic and Bitter Lemon.  Yes, I am looking forward to the weekend!

Tags: Easter_Revolution, Interesting_Times, Weekly_Postcards