The event was given several names.  At first they reflected the tendency of naming political upheavals by referring to the colours sported by the protestors, but the name which survived over the years in the press was “The Tulip Revolution”, reflecting the fact that this was supposed to be the time of year when tulips started to bloom.  Here in Kyrgyzstan, however, it is known as “The People’s Revolution.”

In 2007 a competition was announced for the best decorated building in Bishkek to commemorate the Holiday of Norus, and the Day of the People’s Revolution, March 24th.  The following year the Labour Code was amended and it became an official public holiday, a non-working day for Kyrgyzstan’s population.

Things were not necessarily going well, however, as many people say the Bakiev regime simply repeating the behavior and mistakes of its predecessor.  Some opposition politicians were complaining that Bakiev had “hijacked” their revolution.

Then, in 2010, two weeks after the holiday, the White House was stormed by demonstrators once more, a sitting President fled and the government fell.  In 2005 there had been much mayhem but only four lives were lost, and the deaths were all a result of the rioting that night.  In 2010, however, some 87 people were killed during the protest action, many on the steps of the White House itself.  A new, interim government was installed and prepared for a transition from a Presidential system of democracy to a Parliamentary one.  It was not an easy path and was marked by outbursts of violence in different parts of the country.

In December, the Ministry of Labour issued, as they usually did, a list of holidays for the coming year.  Some of us were intrigued to see that the Day of the People’s Revolution, (March 24th), was still on the list but there was no mention of April 7th.  How, we wondered, would people, (especially the relatives of the victims of that day’s tragic dénouement), take to the fact that the events leading to Kurmanbek Bakiev becoming President were being commemorated, but his demise was not?

One of the deputies in the newly elected Parliament began a public debate, by asking whether the holiday should be cancelled, or moved to April 7th, or if both historical events should be commemorated and declared holidays.  The results of the debate were far from conclusive.  There were strong feelings on all sides, matched equally by an attitude of “a plague on both your houses”.

Some people took the view that although the government of Bakiev had turned out to be a disappointment, the popular uprising of 2005 should not be denied recognition as a formative and decisive moment in Kyrgyzstan’s short history.  Others took the view that, simply because the 2005 revolution had led to such a disappointment, that it should not be celebrated.  A few said that they should be both be granted recognition whilst others said that neither should be.  How is it possible to “celebrate” an event that cost 87 lives?, was one telling, poignant question.

In a conference held yesterday, however, the President, (Roza Otunbaeva), said that many people had asked her to abolish the celebration of March 24, but that there are also people who asked to keep this day as a public holiday.  She said that she believes two these dates should be marked, saying:  ”If we didn’t have the  March 24 events, then society wouldn’t have matured for democratic changes.   These changes served as impetus and now we are on the path towards mature democracy.”  The idea of marking both dates was apparently supported by the Speaker, Ahmatbek Keldibekov.

It was interesting to see the analysis of the two revolutions which Roza Otunbaeva outlined in the conference.  She said that the revolution of 24 March 2005 should be valued and considered “an important benchmark on the path towards democratization of Kyrgyzstan.”  Although there are different opinions about those events, she said, everyone “should realize that Akaev’s overthrow, who “privatized power”, was a true achievement of the people.”  Both Askar Akaev and Kurmanbek Bakiev, “didn’t realize importance of a legitimate handover of power. They privatized power and turned into dictators. But the people of Kyrgyzstan can’t tolerate dictatorship.”

Central Asia didn’t have the conditions for building a democratic state, she said, pointing out that “in Europe, the struggle for democracy lasted for centuries, during which its theory and practice were shaped, whereas regionalism, clanship, nepotism, paternalist and Communist ideas dominated here.”

She went on to outline several causes that led to the revolution: the fragmentation of forces; the absence of a political system adapted to the society and the use of  ”regionalism” and “clanship” ideas for selfish goals. The use of government resources by the previous administrations had put the brake on the development of democracy, she said, but all of these issues were now being addressed  The country had passed through several stages on the path to democracy during a difficult and complex period, she commented,  adding that “the June events were the most difficult part.”

She had come to the conclusion that March 24 should remain a public holiday in Kyrgyzstan. “We should value the revolution of 24 March 2005 and consider it an important benchmark on the path towards democratization of Kyrgyzstan. We struggled not for Bakiev’s power at that time. We struggled for democracy.  … The revolution of 2005 substantially changed the situation in the country and showed the necessity of change of the society to make it equitable and democratic.”

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I cannot say it was ever a particularly popular holiday in the past, even if there were parades and other events organized.   The fact that it comes just a few days after Norus may have detracted a little from the celebrations, (after all, you can have too much of a good thing).  This year however, the preparations suggest that it is going to be a more significant event, starting with that conference dedicated to the events of 2005 that was held yesterday.   In the main square, small crowds had already started gathering, erecting photographs, flags, bunting and other decorations in readiness for the “festivities”.

Whatever, today is a holiday … The Day of the People’s Revolution.  It will be interesting to see what form will it take next year.

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A few years ago, in 2005, the Malvern Gazette ran a story about the Tulip Revolution here in Kyrgyzstan.  It might seem a bit odd that a local newspaper in Britain ran a story about events here in Central Asia, even if they did result in the fall of the government, the president of the Republic fleeing into self imposed exile, and rioting crowds running through the streets looting shops.  There was, of course, a local “hook” for the story – and that was: Me.  As the events unfolded I took the opportunity to write to friends and family at home and abroad, basically to reassure them that I was OK, and the events they were seeing on CNN and BBC, whilst they were unpleasant to live through, were not that bad and could have been a lot worse.  One of these emails got into the hands of my aunt who duly passed it on to the local newspaper and the editor thought it was worth of a story … it was a short while after the events so maybe he had a quiet week.  Anyway, the story ran under a headline something like: “What a way to spend Good Friday.”

It was only when I saw this that I realized that the revolution had happened over the Easter weekend.  If I had been at home, of course, I couldn’t have missed it: the school holidays, special programming on the, television and so on.  Not to mention the church services, although it has been a long time since I attended these.  As John, a Catholic friend of mine, insists on telling me: Easter is the biggest festival in the Christian calendar … and I suppose he has a point, although Christmas seems to hog the limelight.  (It’s the only festival in the calendar that the Jehovah’s Witnesses mark – although they ignore the dictats of the Council of Nicea in 325 and celebrate it at the same time as the Jewish Passover.)  Here, however, Easter tends to pass me by.

Back in Britain, Easter is a public holiday, which is understandable considering Christianity, (in the form of the Anglican church), is the established religion of the country … even if the Anglicans, themselves, constitute only a minority of the population.  Here in Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, although the country is technically a secular state, the majority of the Kyrgyz themselves are nominally Muslim.  There is a large Russian community and they tend to be Orthodox, if they profess any faith at all.  Despite this, Kyrgyzstan has a number of religious festivals that have been adopted as Public holidays.  Although Orthodox Christmas is one of those public holidays, Easter isn’t. (For a brief summary, see the page: Holidays.)

In recent years, however, because some of our staff are Orthodox Christians, I have become more aware of Easter.  Two years ago, for example, Tatiana, (our accountant), and Liza, (my Office Manager), decided to keep “post” (that is, they fasted for Lent – the forty days before Easter).

This year year the Orthodox and Western, (Catholic and Protestant Easter), fall on the same weekend – which doesn’t happen every year and we decided to mark the festival.  There were two reasons for this.  First of all, John is here and decided that he would like to see how the Orthodox celebrate Easter … and secondly, the baseball kids told me that, despite the fact that they are also Orthodox, they had never celebrated Easter because it was too expensive and they couldn’t afford it.

So we enquired about the services in the Cathedral.  On Good Friday there were two: one at two o’clock commemorating Jesus being taken down from the cross and another at four.  The following day, Saturday, there were another two: at five o’clock and again at ten o’clock in the evening.   This latter service lasted until midnight and was followed immediately by a celebratory mass which lasted until three o’clock in the morning.

I had a friend – I say “had” because, unfortunately, he died earlier this year – who always made a point of attending that service … which I always a little amusing because he was not really devout.  Apparently his mother is Russian and had him christened in his childhood, however, his father was a Tatar – a Muslim.

Then on the Sunday there were services at eight in the morning and again at four in the afternoon.

John and I decided that we weren’t too keen on a three hour service at midnight … and as I had to think about the children we we decided instead on the Saturday evening.

The day began with making preparations.  I am not very good at baking, so I decided to buy “Kulich”, (a special cake baked only at Easter) and “Bulochki”, (buns).  (For more details – see: Easter in Kyrgyzstan).  On the other hand we did boil and colour some eggs.

The day also began with bright sunshine, but as it progressed, the sky became overcast and eventually rain began to fall.  We took our Kulich and eggs, and once we got to the church bought candles to light, and went into the church.

Orthodox services are not quite as formal as those I was used to, with my Methodist background.  People tend to come and go, pray and light candles, with the formalities being enacted almost independently.  The prayers and so forth are far more personal than in a Western service in which the congregation play a more participatory role.  We stood before the icons and the “shroud” which symbolized the one in which Jesus’ body was wrapped when taken down from the cross, contemplating the Easter story and lighting our candles as symbols of our prayers.  Finally, we emerged and joined the queues so that our Kulich and eggs could be blessed by the priest, then donated some of them to the growing collection which was being amassed for a local children’s home.  In a way, it’s a bit like Halloween, in that it is important to treat visitors and children to these eggs, cakes and buns.  Indeed, as I stood outside the church waiting for the others, a “babushka”, (literally “grandmother … but the word is generally used as an affectionate term for any old lady), stopped and insisted on treating me to some eggs and buns that she had just had blessed.

Tatiana and Liza then handed in their “prayer lists”, naming those people they wanted to be included in prayers the following day.

It was then time to leave, and we went to a local cafe where we watched the reportage on television of the arrival of the sacred flame at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem.  Flames from that fire will be transported to orthodox communities around the world over the next week and ours will arrive here on Friday.

The weekend continued and on Sunday guests arrived and were treated to the Kulich, bulochki and eggs.  I was a little embarrassed to discover that our eggs were only “soft boiled” and so a little runny.  That is something we’ll have pay greater attention to next year.

Back home in Britain, our Easter Eggs tend be made from chocolate rather than hard boiled chicken’s eggs.  There aren’t any such chocolate Easter eggs here unfortunately.  When I first came here fifteen years ago, it was possible to find Cadbury’s Cream Eggs – one of my favourite sweets – but, although they were very popular, they seem to have disappeared from the shops in recent years.  It is possible, however,  to find Kinder Eggs … milk chocolate eggs with little toys inside … and so I bought a tray of them for the children as a special treat.

It’s not over yet, however.  Whereas, in the lead up to Easter, people went to the cemetery to tidy up the graves of their deceased relatives and friends … nine days after Easter, (that is the Tuesday in the following week), is known as “Roditelskoye Dehn” – Parent’s Day – when people go, once more, to the cemetery to visit the graves.    There will be more eggs and Kulich to prepare.

So passed my real first experience of an Orthodox Easter celebration, after fifteen years … it was an interesting experience, and certainly a lot more sedate and peaceful than the Easter that I experienced five years ago.

Some requests are for information about the hotels, or potential tours.  Quite a few, however, are for information about the country … and it is sometimes surprising the sort of detail we are asked for.  On several occasions we have have stumped and had to write back and ask for the source of the enquiry – which map or guide book is the writer using - because in our research to find an answer, we have “drawn a blank”.

Anyway, just over a year after the Tulip Revolution we received a request from an academic who was doing some research into the effects of the revolution on tourism in the Republic – and he was asking for some background information.  He had written to several companies – not just to us – so it would have been possible to write a very brief comment … but the situation is not that simple … so I eventually ended up with several pages.  Here are some excerpts … Please note, however, that these comments are personal observations, based on my experiences and interpretation of events and activities.

Most, if not all, of those factors are still relevant today. The Tulip Revolution did not affect them to a great extent.

We established two companies to provide tourist services and targeted ourselves particularly towards providing quality accommodation, (we have two hotels – one in Bishkek and another in Naryn, on the road to China over the Torugart Pass), with a level of comfort and convenience that was not generally available at that time. Since then there have been a number of developments in the market that have meant that we have had to adapt. In particular the Community Based Tourism project (supported by the Swiss) has increased the number of homestays (B&B) and yurt camps in rural regions, coupled with a number of guesthouses providing accommodation approaching or achieving “European” standards of quality. There is still a problem of suitably qualified staff – but the people are adapting to meet the challenges of delivering services to tourists in the 21st century.

Since the beginning of 2005 I have also served as the President of the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators (KATO) and sit on the board of the Destination Marketing Association (DMA – a sort of Kyrgyz Tourism Promotion Board). I also sit on the Management Board of the International Business Council (IBC) which has a specialist Tourism Committee.

The main problems facing the development of tourism in the country have been: lack of information available, especially in the West, about the country and the opportunities (basically marketing); access to the country (the problems of getting visas, international transport connections, etc.); lack of, or poor, infrastructure – and service; problems of bureaucracy, crime and security – dealing with the demands of customs officials, traffic police, pickpockets and the like. (Generally speaking this affects CIS tourists mainly as although some Westerners have experienced difficulty, it is a feature reported mainly by Kazakhs, etc., travelling to Issyk Kul.)

It is worth noting that one of the first casualties of the Tulip Revolution was the First Bishkek International Tourism Fair. This was a “trade exhibition” organized by Itecca – who run a number of travel and tourism fairs – and was to be a showcase for the Kyrgyz Republic. It was planned to hold the exhibition in the middle of May – but was cancelled immediately after the events of March 24th. Instead the authorities organized an exhibition in Issyk Kul, based on one of the Sanatoria. It attracted a lot of local interest, and some Kazakh tour operators attended, but it was reported that very few firm contracts were concluded. The Bishkek exhibition was actually held in May 2006, and there are plans for it to be an annual event.

There were others …several tour firms reported a drop in bookings (more about this below) – and some said that they were facing bankruptcy … but as far as I am aware, only one actually closed. This wasn’t really due to a fall off in the number of tourists – but because their office was in one of the buildings looted in the riots on the night of March 24th – and everything was stolen, records, computers – and even the company stamp, (without which is virtually impossible to operate here).

Another “casualty” was the State Committee for Tourism, Sport and Youth Policy. Since the days of the Soviet Union this was the government organ (ministry) which administered these three areas of activity. Tourism was seen as a social service rather than as an economic activity. For several years, those working in the Tourism industry had been arguing that the department should be split up. The argument was that tourism should be seen as a revenue department and not a spending department as the other two, social, portfolios. Either a separate Ministry of Tourism established, or responsibility for it should be transferred to a Ministry of the Economy Youth policy being “hived off” to the Education Ministry, Sport to the Ministry of Culture, and. The new government did eventually decide upon a redistribution of portfolios, and tourism was transferred to a newly reorganized Ministry of Industry Trade and Tourism (MITT). This has in deed had a dramatic effect in that the new ministry has proved to be more dynamic and supportive that the former structure. It still has to be seen if this will be really effective, but after half a year there is more interest in tourism, more goodwill and the profile of the sector has improved. It was claimed that it was a priority area for the development of the economy, but now it feels as if it might actually, in fact, be one.

Turning to the statistics for the Industry: Below are some “official” statistics, which were provided by the government in November 2004 for the tourism sector, but there are a few points which need explanation beforehand.  First of all, some specialist terms:

• Inbound tourism – the reception of foreign tourists into the country – providing an export of services
• Outbound tourism – the dispatch of (in this case) Kyrgyz citizens as tourists abroad – effectively an import of tourist service
• Domestic tourism– the provision of tourist services to citizens of the same country as where the services are provided
• Tourist – under a definition of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), a tourists is someone who spends a night away from their normal residence (… there is a slight problem with this – as it does not account for domestic tourists on an “excursion”, or day trip.)
• Tour Operator/Tour Agent – Under Kyrgyz law these are defined as selling tour services.  In the case of the tour operator – they are responsible for providing the services themselves, whereas the Tour Agent sells the services which are provided by a third party … i.e. they act as a “middleman”.  Two other terms which are now in common use, but are not defined in law, are “travel agent” and “service provider”.

Statistics tend to raise more questions than they answer.  These proved to be controversial – mainly because of No. 11, which seemed to indicate a phenomenal rise in the number of “tourists”.  The reason behind this was the change in the source – from the reports made to the National Statistics Committee by tour companies, (such as ours) and hotels, (such as ours), to the reports of the border services … which recorded every foreigner crossing the border – whether they were tourists, businessmen, people visiting their relatives, etc.  One of the justifications for this was the definition of “tourist” by the World Tourism Organization – as, basically, someone who spends a night away from home.

The motivation for this change was, apparently, the widely held view that most of the tourism industry operates in the “shadow economy” and didn’t report their income, to avoid paying tax.  There might be some justification in this … but, in fact, the Kyrgyz tax system is extremely complicated and many individual service providers operate on what is called a “patent system” which means that they do not have to report.

There are other interesting features or anomalies contained in these figures.

Basic indicators of the development of tourism in the Kirghiz Republic for the period of 2002-2004.

Based on data provided the National Statistics Committee

For comparison purposes: USD1 = approx. 40 som or EUR1 = approx 55 som

These statistics are only indicative measures … but they do provide some useful information … and “food for thought” … provided we remember that, as is often the case with statistics, they seem to raise more questions than they answer.

For example: the increase in the number of visitors looks VERY impressive … but the basis has changed.  The 2004 figure was provided by the Border Service and relates to the TOTAL number of foreigners that have crossed the state borders ,,, not just tourists ,,, whereas the figures for the previous years was provided by the National Statistics Committee and were based on reports submitted by tour companies, hotels, etc.  Having said that, the figure for the first nine months of 2004 was 703,700, which – whilst being well short of the million and half visitors quoted in November 2004 when the figures were first issued, (they were later revised and it was claimed that the 1.5 million represented a mistake … the figures were counted twice) – anyway, it still represents an impressive improvement.  However, it is not clear if this represents a real increase in numbers or simply that the government have been achieving greater success in moving tourism service providers out of the “shadow economy” and thus reporting to the authorities where they didn’t before.  This might result in more accurate figures – but still leaves a huge question mark over the real size of the tourism sector in the economy.

What might be more serious concerns the figures in rows 10 and 12 – the earnings from tourism and the money spent by Kyrgyz travelling abroad.  Whereas the income from foreign tourists shows impressive growth, so does the money spent abroad by Kyrgyz tourists … This could be a statistical anomaly if, for example, this figure does not distinguish between tourists and business travel, market traders etc.  However, it could reflect a tendency that as people become more affluent, they prefer to travel abroad.  It seems to be a real risk that soon the Kyrgyz Republic will spend more abroad than it earns from tourism.

The tourism market in the republic divides into a number of distinct sections: those tourists taking “rest and relaxations” – mainly in the resorts around Lake Issyk Kul – and comprises mainly of tourists from neighbouring Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Siberia; Adventure tourists – mountaineers, trekkers, rafting, etc. … Hunters and skiers; Silk Road Travellers – transiting the country between the Orient (China) and the historical cities of Uzbekistan (mainly comprising “Western” travellers). I suppose this section also includes “ecotourism” and “cultural tourism”; Business tourism – comprising of people such as consultants, businessmen, traders, etc. who spend some time in the country.

The first section of the market, (rest and relaxation on Lake Issyk Kul) saw a dramatic drop in the number of tourists – to something like only 30% of the previous years’ figure. This was exacerbated by uncertainty of the situation in the country, concerns over crime and corruption by local officials (customs, police and traffic police) which was seen as directed towards Kazakhs and a series of “anti-reklama” articles (negative publicity) in the Kazakh press. There were also a strong advertising campaign by Kazakh resorts and other destinations (e.g. Turkey) to try and take advantage of the situation and attract Kazakh tourists and a number of adverse comments by Kazakh tour operators about the quality of facilities and service. The Kyrgyz authorities tried hard to campaign against this negative image … organizing the Issyk Kul Tourism Fair, attending the Kazak International Tourism Fair, (KITF), issuing Press Releases, and other activities. Many of the Sanatoria offered reduced prices. Even so, the figures were severely depressed.

Adventure tourism didn’t suffer to the same extent … mountaineering expeditions took place; trekkers, horse riders, etc. came and explored the mountains and didn’t seem too put off by the events. In terms of “Western” tourists, however, my impression is that quite a few cancelled very early on … but they were mainly those intending to travel at the beginning of the season. One firm reported losing 13 groups. Another reported that they lost all their bookings for April and May – although this is normally a quiet period, it created a sense of foreboding. Those tourists, however, who were planning to travel in the height of the season, (June, July and August) seem to have decided to adopt a “wait and see” attitude … and as the situation quickly returned to on of “calm” and normalcy … they later confirmed and arrived as planned. Not all of them, however, the vast majority of them. If the season started with a sense of “depression”, it ended up with almost the same level of results as in the previous year. There was some anxiousness amongst those who were planning to be here at the time of the Presidential elections in June – but they passed off peacefully and I am not aware of any problems that developed.

In our case – and remember that we concentrate on the “Western” market, being a native English Speaker and known as an “English owned and operated company, that’s natural – we actually had a slight increase in the number of tourists served throughout year. However, if it turned out to be a reasonable year, the prognosis before the events in March had promised an “excellent” one.

Having said that … there has been a “follow on” effect this year. Although everybody worked very hard during 2005 to protect their business … and were, on the whole relatively successful, it must be remembered that most of those tourists had already decided that they were coming to Central Asia before the March events. For 2006 and beyond, it was important to attract new potential clients. Some of course will be “repeat visitors” … our firm, for example, had one group which decided to play it safe and cancelled in 2005 – but they are booked again for 2006 … it’s a return group – they’ve been here before. Kyrgyzstan does that to people – many either want to extend their stay, or plan to return. Not all of them make it … there are too many other places in the world to visit … but quite a few do. One British consultant who works here calls it the “Boomerang Zone” … people may leave – but they have a habit of coming back. Such “repeat visitors” however, constitute only a small potion of the tourists who usually visit and it was important to attract new clients.

Several firms made special efforts to develop new “products” and new advertising material. We, for example, broke with the habit of many years and went to the World Travel Market (WTM) exhibition in London, after a gap of several years. It was important to meet with partners, renew contacts, confirm relationships and make new proposals for future cooperation. We developed new brochures and produced an information CD. We have supported press tours, and run two special “promotional” tours ourselves – and we have one more left planned for later this year. We even increased our staffing … slightly. All this meant a large increase in our marketing budget. But we felt that it was necessary to make the investment.

The Ministry (MITT), DMA, KATO, IBC and individual companies have all worked to try and improve the marketing of the country as a Tourist destination. These efforts were helped by the amount of press coverage given to the Revolution … if in the past people had never heard of the Kyrgyz Republic (or Kyrgyzstan),, or got it confused with Kurdistan, or simply grouped it together as “one of the stans” … (one of my friends in London could never get his tongue round the name and always referred to it as “Uncle Stan”) … Now, they knew it existed … unfortunately the publicity was dramatic and negative. However, the events not as bad as they could have been … riots happen in many places around the world – and here (thanks due, at least in some order, to some rather unseasonable inclement weather) they were quickly over and Kyrgyzstan dropped off the worldwide news radar … and if we consider the cliché that “there is no such thing as bad publicity” … then bad news can, at least, be turned to advantage in that it has helped to raise awareness about the country. “Bad news” does not necessarily have to mean a disaster from which recover is not possible … consider the situation in Paris … two sets of nightly riots – each of which seem to have lasted for several weeks … and the aftermath of the Madrid and London bombings … and the effect of SARS on Hong Kong … and … and … and …

Although there were some successes, (especially press tours – six group tours were organized as far as I am aware, and I know of four other “individual” tours), the results of the work of the DMA were, (for various reasons totally unrelated to the Revolution), somewhat disappointing and several activities were never actually completed. Under new management the DMA are planning a change in emphasis and an increase in media coverage to further improve awareness about the country.

What has been the result of all this promotional work? … it’s hard to say. There is certainly a lot of interest in the country … we are still getting enquiries – roughly one a day, even as late as this – the beginning of June. However, there is a change in the type of enquiry … there is increase in individual, independent travellers.

One company tells me that one of the European partners normally booked 12 groups of about 15 people – and about two thirds were usually full, with the rest about half full – this year they placed provisional bookings for only six groups and most of those were only half full. In our case, one company placed provisional bookings for groups of 11 (ten plus a company representative) and in the past they have been full – but this year they seems to be averaging between four and five tourists. Another company which specializes in small group travel – no more that six tourists per group have cancelled have of their tours due to lack of numbers … and the others seem to be running with just two people. Most of our planned groups this year are small … and, once again, there is increase in the number of individual, independent travellers.

The prognosis at the moment is for slightly fewer tourists to pass through our companies this year than last.

Following the “revolution” there was a burst of activity to try and “save” the season. I have mentioned the situation concerning marketing above … but I would like to comment on one or two other points.

Actually, it might be wrong to consider the Revolution in isolation … there has been a “rumbling volcano” in the republic. The events of March 24th represent the eruption of the volcano … there were rumblings before then – and the rumblings have continued. Despite a second attempt to seize the White House (Government House) and the events in Andijan (Uzbekistan), fortunately most of these other events have not been dramatic and “headline news” – and although they have received coverage in the world’s press, there seems to be little actual effect on the industry. Twice when press tours have been in the republic there have been high profile murders … it sometimes seems as if we are fated to have “bad luck”. However, even though there are continued “rumblings”, I am quite optimistic in that I don’t think the volcano will erupt again – at least in the short term. The Kyrgyz are usually very easy going people and very adept at compromise. Even they are aware that continuous revolution is not a good thing.

The response of foreign governments has also been interesting. Not every traveller reads Travel Warnings or Travel Advice … but most countries did respond to the March events by issuing such notices … and this, of course, has an impact on the question of travel insurance cover. It’s not just I am British, but I have to praise the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office … When Jack Straw was in the Foreign Office, he ordered a review of Travel Advice policy – and there were several changes to the system as a result of the final report (available on their website). Within hours of the revolution the advice was updated … and so was the advice issued by many other governments … BUT within a few days, when it clear that things were “calming down”, they revised the advice to say that they “not longer advised against non-essential travel” to the country. This suggests that they were talking to the British community on the ground – the Honorary Consul in particular and, incidentally, the British Ambassador who just happened to be in Bishkek on an official visit. I don’t have any real evidence to support this – but I am sure that this responsiveness was very helpful.

One suggestion which was put forward in the after of March 24th was to relax the visa regime – at least for certain countries. Kyrgyzstan has for a long time been a pioneer in this respect in Central Asia. In 2000 President Akaev announced that he wanted to move towards a position where there would be a visa free regime for member countries of the World Tourism Organization … but it never came to anything. The Japanese were afforded special “visa free” status – but for other countries the status was only granted for holders of diplomatic passports. However, for citizens of 28 countries, it was made possible to receive a one-month visa without the need for an invitation from any Kyrgyz embassy or consulate – including the one at Manas airport in Bishkek. It was suggested, amongst other steps that could be taken to liberalize the visa regime that these countries – and maybe some others – should be granted “visa free” status. Although there was initial support for this from many high ranking people, it has met some resistance and has not yet been implemented. There is some pressure to support the measure … but I think it is probably a “dead duck”. In other words, the Kyrgyz are not willing to adopt an “anything goes” approach.

I would like to make some final comments … people here tend to be fairly optimistic … “Vse budet horosho” – “Everything will be OK” – is a phrase that I hear several times a day. The year 2001 was designated by the then president, Askar Akaev, as the Year for the Support and Development of Tourism … or more simply: “The Year of Tourism”. Everyone expected lots of tourists … but no-one seemed to know where they were coming from. At the end of the season there were press reports of families who had taken credits to erect yurts to act as roadside cafes … but when the season came to an end many of them had not taken enough to pay off the loans … even so each year there are new guesthouses opening, more yurts offering the “Shepherds’ Life” experience, and more students enrolling on Tourism courses and training to be guides etc. As I said, this year tourism is the subject of a lot of attention – more so, probably, than in 2001 – and people are just as optimistic now as they were then … I hope that the results will be better …

On a personal note … I know that I have been a lot busier since March 2005 … interviews – with the press, with consultants; meetings; conferences; seminars; reports … all aimed at trying to secure the development of tourism in the republic. I sometimes joke that Bishkek must be the world’s “Meetings Capital” … in the next ten days there are at least four, high level government conferences on tourism … and several other related activities. I seem to be out of my office than I am in it. OK – so I am president of KATO and sit on a number of committees … but, as I said, it really feels as if Tourism has become a “priority area”. However, I have some misgivings … at the moment tourism represents only something like 4% of the GDP … if there is an increase in the number of tourists; the turnover in the industry; tax revenues from tourism; employment opportunities; and so forth … then it could still “all turn sour”. The winter was probably one the hardest we have faced in our Naryn hotel … and the Bishkek hotel did not do as well in the end of April and beginning of May compared to previous years. There are other problems in the republic other than those facing tourism and if the affairs of the republic do take a downturn … then we haven’t got “so far to fall” – but recovery will be even more difficult and the attitude of the authorities and the population in general may not be sympathetic or helpful to the industry.

I often say that I feel sorry for the Kyrgyz – they have been told several times that “Happy Days are Here Again” – “The Good Times Are Just Around The Corner” … first of all it was the introduction of the Free Market Economy which was going to be the instrument of improvement – but no-one told them that this meant factories would close and jobs would be lost; then it was Gold – but there have been problems there as well, even though the Kumtor mine helped to keep the economy afloat through the early days of independence; then came the introduction of the national currency, the som – swiftly followed by the rouble crisis; tourism then became the “great hope” – but I’ve told you what happened in 2001, (when we were trying to cope with the aftermath of the Batken incursions of 1999 and 2000), and which ended with the events of 9/11 which helped to depress the industry in 2002, followed by SARS (which killed the Silk Road business for the year), and so on; the number of projects funded by donors and international aid have pumped money into the economy – but many of them are about to come to an end and it is not clear what will happen in the future; the Ganci air base has provided a boost for the local economy since 2001 – and has certainly played havoc with the cost of housing in the capital – but this is under threat; and so on … . Tourism is carrying on its shoulders a great burden of expectation … and I am concerned that it might not live up to that expectation.

I am sorry to go on at some length – but as a former teacher, myself, I do tend to be somewhat verbose, outspoken and to suffer from a general desire to explain. The situation is never clear cut and simple. As I said above, these are personal comments … although I feel confident that I can stand by them, they are meant for background information and I am not sure to what extent I would want to be quoted directly. However, I hope you the comments useful. If you have any questions I will be happy to try and answer them – and promise to try and be brief.

Three weeks have gone by since the last postcard … as usual I have been very busy, and events have been unfolding but, generally, things here are very quiet and it is sometimes hard to imagine what turmoil we have been through.

All this is nothing, however, like the turmoil in other parts of the world.

The news from London of the bombings on the tube and the bus came as a big shock. I suppose it shouldn’t have, because everyone knew that something was bound to happen at some time – especially after the Madrid bombings a year ago – we just didn’t know when … and when it came it was still a shock.

From what I can gather, London came off quite lightly … I know that sounds hard, but each of those trains would have had something like 700 passengers crammed in them at that time of day.  The emergency services, unfortunately, have had a lot of experience of dealing with terrorist acts over the years and a lot of training … which seems to have paid off.  What seems most surprising to me, so far away from the scene is how quickly they have managed to put together a portrait of the bombers and a history of what happened.  Now I suppose we will have enquiries into how it came about that the security services apparently had no warning.  I also suppose there will be some sort of anti-Muslim backlash … fortunately, at the moment it seems to have limited to a few attacks on mosques … let’s hope that is all that happens.

Many people have stopped me – even strangers on the street – to express their shock and condolences.  Others have written to do so – Thank you for that, it is appreciated.

Suicide Bombs also in Palestine, Turkey, Iraq … where next?

Locally, the big story, of course, has been the Presidential election.

There was the run up to the election, the event itself and now the aftermath.

The run-up was almost a non-event.  There appeared to be just one candidate … the others seemed to there just in there to make up the numbers.  There were huge posters for Bakiev on the billboards, TV ads, much comment in the papers, and various events.  One of the local parks, Gorky Park, was taken over by a youth movement supporting Bakiev.  The erected a yurt and two large “military style” tents, flags, notice boards, a large screen for a projector, and every evening seemed to hold a party.  There were a few (smaller) posters placed around town for some of the other, but nothing that seemed to imply a serious contender.  Some people say that sensed tension in the air – but I can’t say that I noticed anything in particular.  The biggest worry, as far as I was concerned, was that there would be some sort of voter apathy as the result seemed to be a foregone conclusion. If less than 50% of the electorate voted, then the result would have been invalid – and we would have had to go through the whole thing again later in the year.

As it happens, that wasn’t an issue.  The day of the election was unbearably hot.  But all was very quiet.  About 10% had voted in the first few hours of polling.  Apparently there were some questions about the conduct of officials at some of the polling stations, and the turnout figure jumped rather dramatically fairly late on … but well over 50% voted – and Bakiev achieved a considerable landslide … with over 80% of the vote, he was the only candidate to get into double figures. The observers all seemed to think that it went quite well … not 10 out of 10 … but certainly a lot better than many other elections around the world.  (I remember there were several interesting questions raised even at the last UK election, which also would not have received 10 out of 10! – and what about the problems in the US in 2000 and even 2004?)  As it happens, I am not too surprised that the election went so well … I could see no reason at all for the candidates to try and adopt questionable tactics.  It just wasn’t worth it – and would only lead to further trouble in the future.

So, Bakiev is the new President.  Apart from raising the question of the future of the Ganci Air Force Base in his first press conference, everything has been more or less quiet. The parliament have to approve the new government – and new programmes have to be adopted and implemented.  At the moment all is peaceful and quiet.  I feel sorry for all those journalists who came and found it to be, almost, a non-event.

There are still a lot of unanswered questions – e.g. about Akaev and his family, the empire of enterprises that they are supposed to have amassed, corruption, etc. – and hopes are riding quite high.  The Kyrgyz are, traditionally, a very optimistic people, and they have been promised a better life before … if Bakiev can’t deliver, then who knows what the reaction might be.

I keep getting asked, (as President of the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators), about the prospects for tourism this year.  My answer is usually, “ask me at the end of the season” … before March, the situation looked very promising. Most of the tour operators have faced cancellations, but they have managed to hold onto quite a few tours.  At the moment the prognosis is mixed … I am told that Issyk Kul is going to be full in August, but several of the sanatoria, etc. have issued special deals – so who knows.  We have managed to preserve some of our bigger tours and have a number of small ones – enquiries are still coming in, but it is not like last year.  Three of them are more or less complete, but some of the other groups are considerably smaller than we originally anticipated.

The hotels are still quite busy.  The Silk Road Lodge, in Bishkek, is doing quite well … but the Naryn guesthouse is in a bit more difficult position because it relies so heavily on groups traveling along the Silk Road.
Still, it looks as if it will do reasonably well during the year as whole.

We’ve had quite a few journalists visit … not all of them connected with election … and we hope to see some good coverage in the next few months.

If anyone sees any articles about Kyrgyzstan, I would be grateful to hear about them – and, if possible, copies.

Last year was the “Year of the last minute tourist” … quite a few people requesting tours seemed to want to start “tomorrow”, or even “today”.  That was quite a challenge.  This year, however, we have gone one better – we had one couple that wanted to start “yesterday”.  Basically, they traveled with us last year – giving me a week’s notice to put together a fairly difficult itinerary.  At first they had planned to do everything themselves, but ran into problems and so turned to us.  I had to tell them that I thought it was not going to be possible … but, somehow, we managed to fulfill the whole tour with all its complications.  I have to admit that I was impressed with how it turned out.  This year, however, they rang me from the hotel on a Saturday morning … they had booked a tour through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan with another agent.  They were sorry they hadn’t booked with us – but originally their plans hadn’t included Kyrgyzstan.  Then they had a problem with Uzbek visas … and so had to change their itinerary, replacing Uzbekistan with Kyrgyzstan.  No problem, so far, but then their agent had faxed them to say there was a problem with the vehicle … and they were stranded.  They had already lost one day.  Could we help?  “You mean you want to leave yesterday?” I asked.  “Yes”, came the reply.  Well, we don’t normally work in Tajikistan … but with the help of some Tajik colleagues, in four hours we had put together a plan which they approved … and which was remarkably close to the original.  They are due back tomorrow … I hope that I am going to be as impressed this year with the way things have turned out as I was last year.  They have promised me that if they come again next year – they’ll give me a bit more notice!

On a more personal note:

On the 25th I’ll have been in Kyrgyzstan for ten years – not bad since I originally came for just one.  I was planning a party but I think with all the upheaval we’ve had I’ll give it a miss.  The Guest house in Naryn has seen its eight anniversary and the Silk Road Lodge sees its fifth anniversary in August.

Thanks Leon for all the emails – the humour is much appreciated and they have helped to lighten the atmosphere quite a bit.
Larissa – happy, belated, birthday!
Ursula – thanks for the articles … it’s always interesting to see how things are reported in the outside world.
Tim – Thanks for the Marmite … I think that should last me for a couple of months!
And to all those who wrote, especially following the incident in London, once again, Thanks for your thoughts.
_______________________________________________________

Note:

As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.

This is one of them.

I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”.  They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story.   As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.

No sooner had I sent the last postcard, the following news items attracted my attention:

Police injured in march trouble
BBC – 17/06/05

Water cannon were deployed by police during clashes Eighteen police officers and a number of marchers and their supporters have been injured during trouble at an Orange Order parade in north Belfast.

Stones were thrown at marchers by nationalists on the return leg of the Tour of the North parade as they passed a flashpoint area at Ardoyne. …

and:

Now happy hour ends with ‘martial law’
By David Bamber
(Daily Telegraph – Filed: 19/06/2005)

Ministers have ordered the Army on to the streets to join an all-out summer campaign against anti-social drunken and violent behaviour by yobs.

Military police and ordinary uniformed soldiers will help keep youths under control in up to 20 towns and cities near military barracks. …

So, it seems that Bishkek is not the only place suffering a “little local difficulty”.

After pressing the ‘send’ button I went down to the hotel and (despite the advice from the American Embassy) went via the main square and by the White House … there were people walking with their families and that only thing that marked it out as unusual was the number of police sitting or lying under the trees, many with open shirts, eating ploff, salad and lepioshki.
Inside the fence troops were lining up – much as I had seen on the Friday morning … but not in riot gear, just ordinary fatigues.

Everything was quiet and subdued … I could imagine reporters describing the atmosphere as being like “a powder keg waiting to blow” … but that was not my impression … I felt that people were more bewildered than anything.

It felt more like a case of “How did we get into this position?”  (Then again, maybe I don’t move in the right circles …).

The worst thing I noticed was the amount of rubbish that the amassed forces of law and order managed to leave behind – but to be fair, it was piled up in heaps that could be easily cleared up rather than simply littering the ground.

I’ve repeated the walk a number of times since … and so far there is little sign of change – or trouble.  Twice during the week, however, there have been rumours of potential demonstrations – one of them resulting in a warning from the American Embassy to avoid the area around the main Ala Too square – but fortunately they turned out to be just that – rumours.

The authorities have started “naming the guilty” and issued arrest warrants for the arrest of several high profile people who, it is claimed, were apparently behind the unrest.  These include the “Presidential Hopeful”, and a former speaker of the Parliament.  The government say that they have captured some documentary evidence – and they intend to pursue the matter.

There are other theories … this is the official version …

Life, however, goes on …

Personally, one of the worst things for me of all these events has been the sense of “pustaya truda” – empty work, or wasted efforts.  So much effort has gone into trying to develop the business generally, and minimize the effects of the events in March in particular, only to be faced with the events in Andijan, and then the assassination of a deputy and an violent protest, just as we had guests to whom we were trying to reassure that all was normal and quiet.

How can we convince people that life continues as normal?  Is it worth the effort when we are rewarded so?  Despite the problems we have to keep going …

As another example of “pustaya rabota”, there are the problems with the Border authorities on the Chinese border.  Every year they think of some new “wheeze” to create problems which they then solve, presumably, I suppose, given the right encouragement (although we, ourselves, never give in, I can understand why a driver and guide faced with such difficulties might be tempted).  We had a series of meetings with them last year trying to sort out the problems – and thought we had succeeded … but we hadn’t counted on the ingenuity of some of the individuals concerned … and as the season started we were faced with a number of “little problems”.  I hope we’ve sorted them out, this season, (especially), we could do without “little problems” – but only time will tell.

It’s so frustrating – and can be so demoralising!

But it is not all negative … One of the nice things about being a tour operator is being able to show people around this little known country.
It’s amazing how many visitors are really taken with the place, the nature, the people and the culture.  A few months ago I was asked to write an editorial for an English language magazine about Kyrgyzstan and I commented how people were drawn to the place … wanted to extend their stay, or vowed to return – and quite a few actually do.   Sometimes there is an even greater feeling of satisfaction … let me give an example …  The other day I had to go a meeting at a restaurant up one of the mountain valleys just to the South of Bishkek – about 35 kilometres away.  I was running a bit late – and had to grab a taxi.  The driver said he had never heard of the place … so I said: “Don’t worry, I know where it is – I’ll show you.”

As we drove further and further up the valley – he told me … “I’ve never been here before, I’s so beautiful!” … I got a bit worried because he slowed down to appreciate the scenery and I thought, “Will I get there in time?” – I needn’t have worried because, as usual, everyone was running late and we made it with plenty of time to spare.  As I said goodbye to the driver he said, “Thank you for showing me a part of my country I have never seen … I’ll bring my family up here at the weekend.”

As it happens, I once met a Babushka – a “grandmother”, she must have been about 65 or 70 – and she told me that she had never (NEVER) been outside Bishkek.  I found that amazing because in the Soviet time, especially, travel was so cheap many people travelled to Moscow and elsewhere in the USSR … but she assured me it was true.

Another example … we have just organized an Inspection Tour for local Tour Operators to visit a new Yurt Camp, up at Son Kul Lake.  The owner claims he has set up a generator, showers, toilets, and even a TV with a video – there won’t be any signal for proper TV – and he wants Tour Operators to use his facilities.  Not surprisingly the trip was oversubscribed, (it’s a “freebie” – the owner of the camp is paying for everything) … but one of the major tour operators in the country told me: “I must go … I’ve never been to Son Kul … “.  She even promised to take her own vehicle to make sure she got a place.

I didn’t go on that particular trip – too much to do in the office – but I do manage to get out and about a bit – though not as much as I would like … there is still a lot of the country I haven’t seen.  A couple of weeks ago, however, I went to visit a “holy place” on the southern shore of Lake Issyk Kul.  It was quite interesting … barren hillsides coupled with green oases where springs erupted from the dry earth and graves littering the hillsides.  As we left the group was approached by the Mullah who asked who I was.  Apparently the KGB had been there a couple of days earlier and asked him to be careful of anyone who might be a Islamic militant … I wondered if I looked like one.  It was an interesting place … but not a highlight for tours.

As I have said several times: “Everyday life continues as normal” … even with all the uncertainty …

Those of you who have been receiving these postcards over the years will know that one of my ‘bete noirs’ is my dealings with the tax authorities.

As it happens, everything has been very quiet on this front for some time, both in Naryn and Bishkek. Of course, having written that, I am probably tempting fate.  We were due for an Inspection in Naryn last December – but everyone seemed to be too involved with the Parliamentary elections, and then came the ‘revolution’.  Here in Bishkek, the inspection was due in April … but I think they have been too busy to bother with us.  There are all sorts of re-organisation of the tax service, checks on businesses which are thought to have connections with “the family” – of the former president … but, no doubt, they will soon get around to asking if they can conduct their annual inspections – and, knowing my luck, they will probably want to do both of ours at the same time.

We’ve had an earthquake – nothing serious … it was only 4 on the Richter scale and there were no reported casualties or damage.  The epicentre was about 20kms southwest of the city near the Ala Archa National Park.  I felt something, but wasn’t sure what it was.   The hotel is built to withstand an earthquake of 8 on the Richter scale … there is no sign of any damage.

We’ve also been experiencing something of a heat wave … its been 41C – that’s 97.6F – recently … and we have been sweltering in the office.  Usually my office is very temperate – never too hot in the summer, nor cold in the winter … but this year it has been almost unbearable.

A funny thing happened to me the other day.  I was walking from the office down to the hotel.  My usual route takes me across Gorky Park – which is not like its Moscow namesake … which is a huge complex … but is really just a large square, grassed over with a number of trees and criss-crossed by paths which look like the pattern on a Union Jack.  The park gets its name from a large statue of the author which stands in the centre.  Anyway, as I emerged from the square, a black Mercedes screams to a halt in the middle of the carriageway just in front of me, the driver pumping the horn … Beep Beep.  As a diminutive Russian in a bright floral shirt, sporting a large golden necklace gets out of the car I look around, thinking: “What’s going on, … it’s broad daylight … there are lots of people around,” (there were council workmen cutting the grass and generally tidying the park up).

I quickly note the number of the car, and look around for where to run, if necessary.  Would it be better to run into an open space or seek cover between the various vehicles?  (Not that there would be much of a chance in either direction.)  The driver is alone in the car, however, and he’s got out … so probably there is nothing to worry about.  He walks round the front of the vehicle and greets me like a long lost brother.  He grabs and starts pumping my hand.  “Hello, Ian.  How are you?, How’s business?”  I am thinking to myself, “Who are you?” but answer: “I’m fine, thank you.
Business could be better – but it could be worse …” and things like that.

Then he says, pointing to the Silk Road Lodge in the distance: “A fine hotel.  We had visitors from Moscow and they stayed there.  They liked it.  They liked it very much.  Thank you for building such a hotel in Bishkek.  Please build another.”  Then he turned around, got back in the car and drove off, leaving me standing, dumfounded, in the centre of the road as he sped away.  He left my life just as quickly as he had entered it.  It was just another incident in another day in Bishkek!

For those who have enquired about the cats … they are fine, somewhat slimmer, but I think that’s a response to the summer heat.

_______________________________________________________

Note:

As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.

This is one of them.

I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”.  They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story.   As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.

I know that it is some time since I last wrote, (one month), but I have been very busy – and things have, until now, been very quiet.  The situation, however, is developing . and I thought I should send an update. I don’t yet know how much you will know of what is happening – but Bishkek is in the news once more and we have already, apparently, had enquiries at the hotel from various reporters looking for accommodation.  I, myself, didn’t see anything on CNN or the BBC – but there are stories on the internet – so it is possible I just missed them.

Where to start?  First of all, I suppose, some background information about what has been going on:

The campaign has now started for the Presidential Election.  The two main contenders (Bakiev and Kulov) have formed a unified team although sometimes it seems as if they have two separate campaigns.  Bakiev held a huge meeting to outline his economic policy.  That was about two weeks ago . Kulov, (who – according to the plan – as Prime Minister should have responsibility for economic affairs), was noticeably absent.  Instead he has launched his own policy . or at least a process for formulating a policy.  Apparently one Russian newspaper is of the opinion that the agreement between the two is built upon distrust rather than on trust, because it is full of caveats.

In an attempt to overcome the bad publicity arising out the events in March, a trip for travel journalists was organized . and on their first night in Bishkek a Deputy was gunned down in the street.  At the moment it is not clear what the reason for the shooting was . as well as being a politician, he was also a businessman, and apparently there are suggestions of criminal connections.  There was also a report from his daughter that he was “offered a bargain: to give all his companies to several very influential people”, but he refused – and she thinks they were behind it.

Protesters had occupied the country’s Supreme Court for more than a month, complaining that the judges had taken unfair decisions against candidates during February parliamentary elections. Supporters of rival lawmakers then evicted them from the building on June 1 amid violent clashes.

Violence broke out earlier in the week in Osh, when security guards opened fire on market traders demanding fair market prices. Seven people were injured in the clash, two seriously.

Some other worrying things . an Englishman, 75 years old, came out here last year and so liked the place that he decided to sell up his home in Leeds and move out here . he finally arrived in January, bought an apartment and had settled down.  Last week he was killed in his flat . the police have arrested three people.

They have also arrested some people who attacked and robbed some British tourists somewhere in Boom Gorge – the main approach to Issyk Kul from Bishkek.

One of the presidential hopefuls, Urmatbek Baryktabasov, was disbarred by the Election Commission because, apparently, he is a Kazakh citizen, and only Kyrgyz citizens can become President.  He maintains that he is a patriot for Kyrgyzstan and has given a number of interviews.

There are a number of complaints about the interim government … saying that in the time since the Tulip revolution, they have done little to help the ordinary people … and this impatience leads to protests.

This catalogue of events all sounds very bad … but it isn’t that bad.  I am sitting in my office – the sun is shining and the street outside is fairly quiet – but there are people going about their business.  It is hard to imagine that in recent times there has been so much unrest and difficulty.  I have tourists turn up at the door asking for advice about where to stay in Naryn, Karakol, Arlan Bob and so on.  There are phone calls from Naryn about everyday issues such as contracts for electricity.

Everyday life goes on much as before …

In my case, “everyday life” seems to revolve around a series of meetings – with clients; with tour operators; with other investors in Kyrgyzstan; with government officials; “round tables”, committees, workshops, forums – to
discuss a variety of issues.   In fact, there are so many meetings that I
can’t make them all and have to send someone to deputise for me.

I have been out of the office virtually all week.  Friday morning I got to the office and went through the emails before going off to yet another meeting.  This was supposed to be the presentation by Feliks Kulov of his economic programme. Some of our staff were late because they were held up by a parade, complete with brass bands along Prospect Chui, the main street.

There were a lot people walking around – but no sign of anything untoward.

Apparently there had been announcements of planned protests by Baryktabasov’s supporters and although there was a certain amount of tension in the air – it was not necessarily going to be a day much different from any other.  We made plans for the hotel – extra security, lock the gates etc., but I felt confident enough to go to the Forum.  There were quite a few people in the main square when we drove through – but they just standing around … the police presence was visible – but not excessive or overbearing.

The forum began normally – about 10 minutes late, that’s quite good for Kyrgyzstan.  Because I am President of the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators, I got a seat on the main platform – in the rows behind the speakers.  Under the stage lights it was quite hot – the temperature outside was about 32C – 95F – so you can imagine how I wilted.  Rosa and Aybek had seats in the body of the hall – but I could see Rosa fanning herself with her programme.

About halfway through the first session, whilst speakers were discussing the proposals put forward by Felix Kulov, he got called into the wings at the side of the stage. From where I was sitting I could see that he was involved in an intense conversation … and when he came back onto the stage he announced some “breaking news”, that some protestors had apparently managed to get into the White House and had even reached the “seventh floor” where the offices of the President, Prime Minister and other important government figures are located.  He called for a break in the proceedings so that he could consult about the situation – and we all filed out to an early coffee break – so early that it caught the catering staff by surprise and the coffee was not ready for about 15 minutes.

When we returned he announced that the situation was not clear – some people said 1000 people were gathered, some 2000, 3000 or even 5000. (One press report I have seen quoted 10,000 – but I don’t think that can be correct).
They seemed to have various reasons why they had gathered.  The White House had been cleared – the protestors evicted.  (Bakiev gave a press conference later saying that many of the people had been paid to go there – 500 or 1000 som.  Talk about “rent-a-mob”.  He even said that the events had cost about USD28000 to stage – but where that figure came from, I don’t know.)

Anyway, Parliament had been called into special session and he had to leave.

Most people left with him.  When I walked back to the hotel with Vladimir Komissarov, (another tour operator), we went through the old square at the back of the Historical Museum.  Lined up outside the Kyrgyz drama theatre were about 200 troops with riot gear … shields and truncheons, no sign of firearms.  They were just assembled there, with spectators standing around watching … no sign of any action.  I felt sorry for them having to stand there in the heat, waiting.  Still, I thought, better waiting than having to “go into battle”.

As I walked along through Panfilov Park, the few people that were there were acting as if there was nothing unusual … the “fast food” sellers were still serving, someone was singing Karaoke, there was even a family of four sleeping under one of the trees.  We could see some police inside the grounds of the White House and a number of small groups congregated at various places – but no real sign of disorder.

Back at the hotel – a quick review of our preparations … everything was normal.  Into yet another meeting: a press conference to mark the end of a tour for a group of European Tour Operators. Because of the events unfolding elsewhere there were many reporters present … but it was a good meeting.

Then, back to the office.  Once again the streets were quiet.

When I saw the TV coverage and read on the internet about the “riot” being broken up with tear gas … it was a big surprise … I saw nothing of this as I walked through the city.

I actually had a couple of hours to work on various things before going off to an evening of three meetings … one to plan further activities to help minimize the effects of recent events on the tourism industry (and you can imagine our feelings during this one), the opening of an extension to another hotel in Bishkek and a farewell for the European tour operators.

I was not very pleased to get back home to find that Roman had disappeared … several frantic phone calls and we finally found him.  “Why were we worried?”, he asked, “Everything is OK”.

Although it is questionable how the protestors managed to gain entrance to the White House, the fact that EVERY police office was called in to patrol the streets over night, and that road blocks were placed on all the access roads to the capital to protect against possible mass movements into the capital … everything is quiet and peaceful.

Of course, I could be wrong (after all I said that I didn’t really anticipate problems in the run up to the election … and look at what has happened), but it still seems to me that things are not as bad as they seem.

Bad, maybe, but not disastrous.  For example, there was no looting last night and the authorities seem determined to be firm in their response to events – but not like the Uzbek response in Andijan – they seem to have a grip on most things.  Events seem to be episodic – localized.

Several of you have written and urged me to be careful – don’t worry, I am.

Even walking through Bishkek yesterday, I did not feel threatened or in any danger … but I would have turned and walked quickly in the other direction if I had felt so.  I still keep my doors locked and bolted – especially when in the office alone, (as I am now).

_______________________________________________________

Note:

As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.

This is one of them.

I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”.  They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story.   As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.

I have been meaning to write an update for the last two weekends … but other things always seem to crop up and interfere with my plans.  Anyway, the events of the last few days in Uzbekistan have spurred me into action.

First of all, let me assure you that everything here, in Kyrgyzstan, is peaceful and that I am quite hopeful for the future.  After a previous “postcard” someone wrote to say that I sounded “depressed” … if I gave that impression, I am sorry.  No, I am not depressed.  Concerned – but not depressed.  The main impression I want to leave you with is one of “qualified optimism”.  It would be wrong to say that everything is “rosy” … but, although there is still great potential for things to go wrong, it seems to me that there is also great potential for things to get better.

One area of concern is the forthcoming Presidential election.  There are several reasons for this.  First of all we were not sure how the campaign would go … would it be rancorous or peaceful – I thought that there would be a certain amount of verbal mudslinging, but that there would not be serious discord in the run up to the election itself.  Once the results were known, however, then it was not clear how people would react.  I think I have said before that “democracy is a dangerous thing” – because there is always a loser … and it wasn’t clear how the “losers” would react.  In the UK, for example, most of the electorate didn’t vote for Labour … although they still got in with a healthy majority … but the losers have accepted their victory, even if it has re-opened the debate about proportional representation.

One positive thing here, however, is that the two main candidates (Bakiev and Kulov) have reached a deal.  Bakiev will stand for President and, if elected, Kulov will become Prime Minister – and will have responsibility for most of the really important ministries (i.e. controlling the economy).  Several people have even said that, following this agreement, there is no need for an election …but, of course we still have to go through it – even if it turns out to be a formality.  The important thing is that this agreement seems to have removed the likelihood of further disruption and disorder.

Regarding the general situation here: Now that Askar Akaev is no longer on the scene, it is necessary to search for a new “bogeyman” or scapegoat to blame for the current woes in the country.  Although some people still seem to see his hand shaping events through the use of his supporters. One person expressed the view that the situation in the country is being engineered by people who haven’t received a portfolio in the new administration … (in Russian it’s expressed more picturesquely – they haven’t received a briefcase, or they haven’t received an “easy-chair”).  As a result they are not happy with the current situation and want to create disorder and instability.

I have said before that I am not a great believer in conspiracy theories … I prefer the “great cock-up” theory.  It seems to me that plans may well have been set in motion, but then events take on a life of their own … and everyone is surprised by the eventual results.

There was a surprise when Akaev’s daughter, Bermet, returned and took her seat in the Parliament … she was asked to leave because the result in her constituency has been challenged. She is adamant, however, that none of the family have done anything wrong.  The government doesn’t see it that way – and have started a commission to examine the affairs of several companies that have been linked somehow or other with “the family”.  They seem to have come up with quite a lot of evidence about transfer of funds and non-payment of taxes.  (It is claimed that, already large sums of tax have reached the budget that would formerly have been siphoned off into someone’s pockets).  Despite this, the work of the commission is fairly controversial – and it seems that there is a risk that its work will be the cause for more uncertainty.

There is a lot of comment about the need to fight corruption … all the main players are saying the “right” things …let’s hope that it is not just talk, and leads to a real improvement in the economic situation – and the lives of ordinary people.

The squatters who seized land in the South of the city have been granted some … does this mean the new government has “blinked”?  Possibly, but it is not clear how this will develop, and, it seems to me, they didn’t really have much choice.  The situation, however, does seem to have calmed down.

Another aspect raised by this question of land is that there are rising ethnic tensions, as some of the more nationalistic Kyrgyz are getting strident.  Leaflets have been distributed directed against Russians, Turks and Koreans.  As a result, many Russians are feeling uneasy and long queues can be seen at the consulate of people wanting to apply for visas so that they can return to the “motherland”.   According to one report about 80,000 people have started making applications for documents to leave the country.

There is a Russian proverb: “Vse horosho, gde nas nyet” (Everything is good everywhere else – “where we are not” – in English we say: The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence).  I have never had much sympathy with this.  When people (local people) talk to me about wanting to emigrate and get a better life, I always ask them why they think it will be better there rather than here. I comment that “I live in the ‘real world’, here and now, and it is up to me to make the best of what I have and to seize the opportunities that present themselves.”  (Yes, it is true that some of these opportunities might be ‘elsewhere’ … but I feel it is better to be part of the real world than constantly hankering after ‘what might be’).

Some respond that it is easy for me to react like that – that I can always leave.  However, I feel that the people here tend to be very passive.  They sit back and accept what comes to them.  In the case of the Kyrgyz, this could be a hangover from their nomadic lifestyle … the stresses of life were much simpler … nothing much more complicated than: were the animals OK?, was it time to move to different pastures?, etc.  Then there was 70 years of communism when the state did everything.  One of Roma’s friends runs a night club that was trashed on the afternoon of March 24th.   He came to visit and complained that he was out of a job.  I don’t particularly like the guy, but that’s another matter.  What really ‘upset’ me was that he just seemed to have accepted it as a fact.  I tried to persuade him that now was the time to plan for a re-opening.  What could he salvage?, how quickly could he re-open? … But, he just sat there.  OK, maybe he was just in a state of shock … but it struck me as a typical attitude: “look what a ‘bum hand’ fate has dealt me” … my reaction is: “OK – so you got a ‘bum hand’ … work with it.”  I call it the “Field of Dreams” syndrome … when Kevin Costner hears the voice telling him: “If you build it, he will come”.  He ends up with a baseball field in the middle of no-where … and “people will come”.  The attitude seems to be that here, in Kyrgyzstan. we have mountains … so “people will come”, we build a hotel … so “people will come”, the year is declared the “Year of Tourism” … so “people will come”, … and so on.  If people ARE going to come, then they have to be persuaded … that requires work and activity.  They need to be convinced that they will be safe.  We have to be active – not passive.  (I am pleased to say that I see the club has now re-opened).

I suppose I now have to turn to the events of the last few days in Uzbekistan.  I suppose it could have been predicted that something would happen but, once again, the events seem to have caught everyone by surprise.  Once again, people seem to be in shock.

There seems to be a conflict between different accounts of the events – the official version from Tashkent and local and international reports that I have seen.  The Uzbek authorities have blocked access to Andijan and (as far I can tell) no foreign reporters have been able to get into the city … although I have seen some photographs and video, the lack of “reliable” information is quite frustrating.  I have said before that I was quite impressed with much of the reporting of actual events here in Kyrgyzstan during the events in March – it was the commentary that I found frustrating … here, however, there are so few facts to go, very few first hand accounts – so all we are left with is the commentary, second guessing what is going on,

The appalling loss of life, (I wonder if we will ever know exactly how many people were killed); the fact that something like 2000 people were let out of the prison onto the streets; the tragedy of the refugees trying to cross the (closed) borders into Kyrgyzstan (apparently over 500 are stuck in no-man’s land – some of them wounded) … there is the worry about how this will affect the political situation throughout the region – not just in Uzbekistan.

It seems callous to reflect that this probably means that there will be very few travelers on the Silk Road this year (and next?).

We do still have guests in our hotels – and clients for tours … and enquiries from people who still want to come here.  Some firms are in serious trouble – but I am pleased to say that we are “keeping our head above the water”.  One firm had it’s offices looted on March 24^th and lost everything – even the company stamp (and those of you who know about Asia will understand what that means – they can’t do anything – not even pay their taxes!).

On a more personal note … on my CV I used to have the phrase: “I enjoy being busy …”  It is a good thing because I have been quite busy in the last few weeks. We have had numerous meetings with different government departments (Tourism, Foreign Affairs, Economic Development …) and other bodies, interviews for the press and appearing on TV (using an interpreter).

We (tour operators) have suggested about 20 things that we think the government could do to help rescue the season – if it is not too late – and which could be a big benefit in subsequent years.  The government seemed quite interested and I got quite hopeful that something really positive would result – but we seem to have entered into a hiatus as proposals seem to be stuck on someone’s desk.  That is fairly common here.

We were supposed to have a meeting with the Acting President, Bakiev, but it keeps being postponed.  I understand that he is busy and has other things occupying his mind … but … it is still frustrating.

Also, the election in Britain: I applied for a postal vote and actually received a voting slip.  It arrived on May 3^rd – and had to be returned by May 5^th – even if I sent it by courier it couldn’t arrive before May 9^th – if I sent it by ordinary post it could have taken weeks! – so I didn’t have to worry about who I would support – and ended up just watching how it unfolded on BBC.

So, in summary: at the moment things are quiet – but everything is back “up in the air” … uncertainty seems to be the “order of the day” and it is difficult to predict what is likely to happen in the future … BUT, there are as many – if not more – positive signs as negative ones.  Whenever I am asked if I have plans to leave – I am still answering: “No, I see no reason at the moment to even consider it.”

However, I hope that you are not living in such “interesting times” as I am.

_______________________________________________________

Note:

As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.

This is one of them.

I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”.  They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story.   As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.

Recent events have thrust the Kyrgyz Republic to the attention of the world’s media.  The press coverage has naturally concentrated on the dramatic events such as the storming of the government house, the change of government, and the civil disorder (riots and looting) that followed.  Time has passed since those historic events occurred, however, and life in the republic continues as the situation calms down and returns to a sense of normality.

Tourism is a major part of the Kyrgyz economy.  Over one and a half million foreigners visited the country in 2004.  Some of those would have been here on business, but about half of them were tourists.  They may have chosen the Kyrgyz Republic for their vacation so that they could enjoy the spectacular Tien Shan Mountains; or the pristine natural environment and varied wildlife; or the traditional lifestyle and culture of nomadic shepherds; or to travel along part of the Great Silk Road; or simply to relax on the shores of Lake Issyk Kul.

“It is true that seeing riots on the streets is not likely to encourage the potential tourist to think about Kyrgyz Republic as a likely holiday destination,” admits Ian Claytor, President of the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators (KATO).  “They should remember, however, that this is the first time that Kyrgyzstan has been headline news in the rest of the world.  (In fact, this may be the only time it ever achieves such prominence).  That’s because the events of the last week were extraordinary.  When Kyrgyzstan is not the ‘Top Story of the Hour’ the reason is simply because everything is normal.  These events were not typical, they are not normal.

“The advice of the KATO members to those who were thinking of visiting Kyrgyzstan this year is: ‘Wait and see’.  Don’t cancel your holiday yet.  Everyone was surprised at the speed with which events developed, but the signs are that the situation is now calm and returning to normal.

“Kyrgyz culture is one of hospitality.  When a nomadic shepherd spends months alone in the mountains tending their flocks, then every visitor is a welcome guest – and that tradition prevails as the norm.  It was not by accident that the motto chosen for this year was ‘Hospitable Kyrgyzstan’.”

END.

Notes for editors:

1. Kyrgyzstan is a small, landlocked country in Central Asia. One of the former Soviet Republics it declared its independence in 1991.  It is predominantly mountainous with over 90% of the country above 1500m, and the backbone of the landscape is formed by the Tien Shan Mountains.  Lake Issyk Kul is the world’s second largest mountain lake and its beaches and resorts, (hotels, sanatoria), have long been a popular holiday destination for citizens of the former Soviet Union.  The Kyrgyz are traditional a nomadic people, who take their horses and sheep into the high mountain meadows (jailoo) to graze on the lush pastures for the summer.  It formed an important link on the Great Silk Road, between the orient (China) and the ancient cities of Uzbekistan.
2. Recent events which have thrust the country into the international spotlight have included a parliamentary election; protests against the disputed results of those elections which led the storming of the Government house in the capital, Bishkek, and the establishment of a new government; a night of serious civil disorder, which included rioting and looting.
3. Tourism is a major part of the Kyrgyz economy, representing just over 4% of the GDP.
4. According to official statistics from the Border authorities, in 2004 1527500 foreigners crossed the state border – according to the State Statistical Committee, there were 703700 tourists recorded in the first nine months of the year.
5. According to official figures there were 115 Tour Operators and Tour Agencies working in the country in 2004.  There were almost 400,000 enterprises working in the industry (hotels, restaurants, casinos, homestays (Bed and Breakfasts), transport companies, etc.).
6. The Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators is the largest body representing Tour Operators and Institutes of Higher Education in the Republic.  It was formerly established and registered as a non-commercial organization in 1997, having existed as an ad hoc, unofficial, body for several years.  It is a growing organization – there are currently 39 members (which equates to about one third of all tour operators in the country) which includes some of the longest established and largest tour companies in the country, as well as ones which have been established more recently.
7. The President of the Association is currently Ian Claytor – a British citizen who has lived and worked in the Kyrgyz Republic since 1995.

Is that Good News – or Bad News? – THE KEY WORD IS “RECOVERY”

The world is beginning to hear about the Kyrgyz Republic . Articles are appearing in foreign newspapers and on foreign TV News programmes, not to mention on the “information superhighway” – the internet.

Normally I would be very happy about that. As a tour operator, involved with trying to attract people to visit the Kyrgyz Republic and one of the biggest problems we face is the lack of knowledge, (particularly in the West) about this small, landlocked, Central Asian country. If Kyrgyzstan is in the news, then that should raise the country’s profile and more people will learn about us, and more will want to come and visit us.

Over the last few years, those of us working in the Tourism industry have been trying to publicize the country – the magnificent mountains; the natural habitat; the hospitable people; and their traditional culture; the fascinating history of the Silk Road – and the many historical characters that have helped to shape events and has influence reached far beyond the local confines of Central Asia.

As businessmen, (of course), we have been trying to sell our particular products – tours: accommodation, transport, guide services, meals, souvenirs, formalities … and so forth. Such has been the lack of knowledge of the country, however, that we have had to put all of this into a wider context … Where is Kyrgyzstan ?; What does it have to offer?; Why should tourists consider it as a possible destination?; What can they do when they get here? … and so on.

We have attended exhibitions, published catalogues, established websites, issued video cassettes and Compact Discs, sought to place stories in the foreign media, arranged special tours for representatives of the press and foreign tour companies.

In the past few years, we have faced a number of problems which have hit our industry hard. One year, a lorry falling from a bridge polluting a mountain stream virtually destroyed the whole summer season on Lake Issyk Kul. Two years running, there were incursions in the south of the country by insurgents who took foreigners as hostages. Another year, the appearance of SARS – which closed the border with China – killed the Silk Road route.

At long last a tourism promotion board, (called the “Destination Market ing Association”), has been established in the country, which is being supported by grant aid from Switzerland and has only just started its work. The aim is to spread the “good news” about Kyrgyzstan – to help increase awareness about the country and its potential as a tourist destination; maximize the number of foreign visitors and thus increase the contribution made by tourism to the Kyrgyz economy and improve the standard of living for the general population.

The first major activity of the Association – organizing the Kyrgyz stand at the ITB exhibition in Berlin has just taken place. The second, attendance at the MITT exhibition in Moscow is underway at this moment. These exhibitions are important … contacts are made with tour companies from around the world: from the CIS countries, from Europe , from America and more distant countries. People are interested. Contracts are signed. Details of tours agreed. The future looks promising. More tourists will come here, spend money in the country. People will have work – guides, drivers, cooks, hotel workers, in cafes and restaurants, in sanatoria and resorts, owners of homestays in the villages, … and others. Souvenirs will be bought in the shops. There will be more visitors to the museums helping to cover the costs of maintaining the displays and so preserve the heritage for future generations. There will be more money in the Kyrgyz economy. They will be more taxes paid into the budget.

The future looked promising.

Much of the work that is being done is not actually going to show results this year. All of the marketing and promotion that is taking place now is aimed at next year – 2006, and beyond. In fact most of the bookings for this year were received last year or over the winter period.

There will be some tourists who yet to decide where to spend their holidays this year – but that will only be a small proportion of the total number of visitors, Holidays normally take some planning – dates have to be fixed, flights booked, accommodation reserved, services arranged, as well as saving to pay for all of this. When spending (large) sums of money on things like air tickets, the consumer does not usually make a decision lightly, nor at the last minute.

During the last week, tour operators have been busy answering questions. Unfortunately, instead of replying to “last minute” enquiries or finalizing arrangements for groups that have already been booked – as would be normal at this time of year – they have been answering questions about safety and security – or acknowledging cancellations.

Tourists from the West that can afford to visit Kyrgyzstan can also afford to travel to travel to any part of the world. They have the world at the feet – and most of the countries of the world are vying for their custom. Why go to a place that could be dangerous?, or where there is civil disorder?, where there is the possibility of violence? Much better to cancel and chose a safer destination. Who can blame them?

The result is that the prospects for this year look bleak. It should be remembered that many decisions taken by tour companies around the world are not for this year – but for next year – and beyond.

Fewer visitors mean less money in the Kyrgyz economy, fewer jobs, less tax revenues for the budget, and also less interaction between visitors and their hosts, less communication between cultures and less mutual understanding.

The future no longer looks promising.

The key word now is: “Recovery”. How quickly can Kyrgyzstan recover what is being lost at the moment? This year may not yet be a total loss. Those tours already cancelled are unlikely to be reinstated – but those where people are “waiting it out” – to see how the situation develops, may yet be saved.

Kyrgyzstan is now in the news. People all over the world are learning about the country. Publicity would normally be welcome – but is this good publicity? There is an English phrase: “There is no such thing as bad publicity”, but in this case, it is hard to agree with that. On the positive side – more people will have heard about Kyrgyzstan – and will be better informed about the country and may have their interest aroused. On the negative side – what they see and hear is unlikely to persuade them that they should come and see the country, experience the mountains, the wildlife, the hospitality and culture of the people.

In this case, I think I prefer another English cliché: “No news is good news”.

This was a Press Release issued by the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators to the local press in Kyrgyzstan.

I hoping that this will be the last of the “emergency” postcards … We seem to have dropped off the radar as far as international news coverage is concerned … and that is a sign that everything here seems to be calmer … the sun has been shining, but it was still quite cool, and then overnight there was snow – not a lot, but after the rain dampening the situation down, the snow has helped to cool things off – for the time being. It’s not exactly the weather for troublemakers to be out on the streets rioting and looting.

I did say that they had turned off the central heating. We should have known that was a signal for the weather to turn. Anyway, it’s a case of multiple layers of sweaters.

Anyway, things are very relatively quiet here, the streets were practically deserted Sunday. I even felt safe enough to sit in the office until about 8:00 pm Saturday and 10:00 pm on Sunday.

Another of the reasons that things may have quietened down may be that they have arrested quite a lot of looters … the figures vary from source to source, but they all agree on thing – the prisons are full. Felix Kulov, who is now in charge of “security” is reported to have said that the looting was down 50% – my impression is different, … better …, but that could just be the view I get from the city center. Maybe things are happening outside.

Apparently, there is still some unrest. Tatiana, my accountant, lives about a kilometer from the centre in a quiet suburb. She tells me that on Saturday there were attempts by protesters to seize the local police station. The police, however, fought back and fired shots into the air. She also tells me of a few more looting raids … in one a shop selling electrical goods was raided … all the other local shops were left untouched, so these people obviously wanted something in particular. Apparently the owner was cowering behind the counter all through the raid.

The situation with Kulov is interesting. Technically, of course, he should still be in prison. He was convicted and sentenced to 10 years for various offences, which he denies … and was only released because a crowd of protestors appeared at the prison gates demanding his release. He is now going to put an appeal before the courts – and if he loses the case, he’s going to go back to prison! “It’s the law”, he says.

Incidentally, he’s taking a very strict legal view of the question about which parliament is valid – the “old” or the “new” – and it is at variance with the “new” president, Bakiyev. Bakiyev says that the old parliament is still valid, whereas Kulov supports the new one – except for the constituencies where the results are subject to complaints and disputed. I confess that I am confused – the Constitutional court annulled the results, so it seems to me that there is no parliament. The chaos gives some credence to Akaev who kept saying was that the opposition was chaotic with different views and different demands.

He appeared on television last night and said that there were reports of people going around saying that they were from him and wanting this, that or the other … but it wasn’t true – he knew nothing about them, he was too busy with other things than to bother with “economic” affairs … they were “bandits”.

There are also rumours of some people, former owners, walking in to businesses with their own “security” and evicting the new owners, taking control.

So the chaos takes many forms. It’s not just violence on the streets – and this latter form of chaos that is far more worrying in many respects than the rioting and looting, especially because it is so unpredictable.

Some firms have moved all their paperwork out of their offices – I bet the tax authorities will be glad about that, it will be difficult enough getting the tax out of people anyway, but the checks are going to be impossible, One of the mobile phone companies has placed adverts on the local TV asking for their computers to be returned. I wonder how much information they have lost. Fortunately, with my background, we have backups … but I can’t helping feeling nervous on this front.

So far we have been lucky in terms of business … in terms of tours. we have received only two cancellations to date as most people seem to be waiting to see what will develop … the prospects for the hotels don’t look too bad, BUT, a lot a lot of our business doesn’t depend upon us alone … if other companies receive cancellations then we will also suffer as a consequence … I have been trying to find out what the situation from other companies, and one tells me that they have had so many cancellations that they think they may go bankrupt. That does not look good.

I am beginning to question my original thoughts about the whole thing being disorganized chaos – an example of the “cock-up” theory (generally, I am a great believer in the “cock-up” theory as opposed to “conspiracies”) and resulting from an opportunistic moves in response to events AS They unfolded. I Came across a Couple of Reports in the Russian Newspaper ‘Commersant’ Which Raise Some interesting questions (http://www.kommersant.com/). Although They Are in English , They Are a bit Difficult to Get your Head around if you do not all the Characters … SO you Might find the Following site helpful, if you Want to do a Little research … http://www.rferl.org/specials/ kyrgyzelections / default.asp.

I was speaking to one person who says that from her flat, which overlooks a number of shops, she saw very definite signs of the looting that take place on Thursday being organized by people in cars with mobile phones.

Richard Spenser of the Daily Telegraph has written some interesting articles … the first few, when he was still in Peking, were very fair, the later ones seem to reverting to type for the Telegraph, but are still quite good. One thing that made me smile was when he referred to the snowfall as “heavy” – you can tell he’s British … anyway he should come here in the winter. He also quotes a British businessman, who asked to remain anonymous – it wasn’t me, but I understand what he means.

The Guardian accounts are also quite interesting – especially on the questions and answers page.

It has been difficult to plan a schedule … I have had many meetings arranged and then cancelled … and at the moment it is almost impossible to find anyone in their offices. Slava has had to go to a funeral – nothing to do with the troubles, so life goes on in some respects as normal.

Another example of that: Following the cat fight, which resulted in my shedding a fair amount of blood after I tried to break it up, the two cats in question have become very subdued, curling up against my legs as if trying to say “I ‘m sorry “- and” will you still feed me? “. My hand is still a bit bruised, but recovering. I have a slight pain in my chest … I think it is a result of lying awkwardly in bed … but apart from that – I am fine.

Anyway, that’s all for now … as I said at the outset, I hope it’s the last of the “emergency” postcards … but who can tell.

_______________________________________________________

Note:

As an ex-pat living in Bishkek during the “Tulip Revolution” and witnessing the events of 24th March, 2005, Iwrote a series of messages to friends and relatives to reassure them that he was safe … and describe some of his experiences and reactions.

This is one of them.

I haven’t edited them … they are “as sent”.  They are not a comprehensive or accurate historical account of the events – but a series of observations of one person who witnessed the events unfolding and tell part of his story.   As such, they reflect the ambiguity and lack of certainty of the times, as well as the mass of rumours which circulated and the changing opinions as more and more information became available.