Cotton Bolls

Not long ago I was chatting with a friend who dropped a bombshell on me, (figuratively – not literally), when he told me that Kyrgyzstan was on of the top Cotton producers in the world.  I expressed my surprise … I know that cotton is often listed as one of the country’s main agricultural products along with tobacco, and that it was an important product in the Ferghana valley … but it seemed to me that Uzbekistan he was probably thinking of Uzbekistan, not Kyrgyzstan.  

Anyway, I decided to look into it.

In fact he is not alone in thinking this … one news report, echoed what he told me, saying: “according to some sources, Kyrgyzstan is among the leaders of cotton production in the world”, although it also added, “Kyrgyzstan does not figure in the National Council of U.S. cotton producers’ list of the top ten cotton producing countries.“ 

It turns out that Kyrgyzstan is about halfway down the league table of the world’s major cotton producers, (somewhere about 38th place, out of 77 countries), producing around 100,000 bales of cotton a year (about 20,000 tonnes).  That’s not much compared to approximately 25 million tonnes produced globally annually; six million tonnes produced by China and India, the three million tonnes from the United States, (the world’s largest exporter of cotton), two million tons from both Pakistan and Brazil or with Uzbekistan, (which is up there in the top ten with about a million tonnes) … but it’s still a significant quantity.

 For the record: I have to admit to a certain amount of confusion because some of the statistics are quotes in tonnes – whilst others are quoted in “bales” … a bale weighs 480lbs (pounds) which is the equivalent of about a fifth of a tonne – so, China at the top of the table produces about 32 million bales, or 6 million tonnes.     A recent news report (in 2012) commented on the harvest of 100,000 tonnes of the crop that year … but according to one set of figures I have seen, Kyrgyzstan produces around 100,000 bales – which would be only 20,000 tonnes.

Cotton, (Klopock in Russian), is fiber  that grows in a round seed bearing capsule, called a boll, of the Gossypium plant, (or cotton plant).  The shrub is found all round the world and it was domesticated, (cultibated and utilised), in both the Old and the New Worlds in antiquity.  The fiber is almost pure cellulose and is spun into a yarn or thread which can then be use to make a soft textile fabric, and the invention of new technologies in the Industrial Revolution led to a growth in its use and it is now the most widely used natural fiber cloth in the world. 

An early, hand powered, Whitney Engine

For the record: Today happens to be the anniversary of an important event in the history of cotton … as important as the invention of the cotton gin.  On March 14th, 1794, Eli Whitney received a patent for his engine, basically a wooden drum, spiked with metal hooks – which, when it was turned, separated the cotton fibers from the seeds, husks and other impurities.  Whitney’s invention allowed a massive increase in productivity in the extremely labour intensive process … and whilst this led to the success of the cotton industry in the Southern States of America, according to some historians, it also played a role in helping to perpetuate the institution of slavery. 

Cotton has been a controversial crop over the years – what with the connections with the Slave trade, Gandhi’s commentary about the economic injustices of the British empire buying Indian cotton at rock bottom prices – transporting the crop to Britain to be processed and then selling the finished product back to India at top dollar prices … and more recently the alleged use of “child labour”, and other economic, environmental and social problems associated with the intensive farming methods of its mono-cultural cultivation.

Cotton requires a long frost-free period, plenty of sunshine and moderate rainfall, (or substantial irrigation – which leads to other problems), and “heavy soils” …

Recent developments have seen the introduction of Genetically modified cotton plants – designed to improve resistance to pests.  However, another trend has also emerged, the production of organic cotton – produced from plants cultivated without the use of chemicals such as fertilizers and pesticides.

Apart from its use in textiles, cotton also has a wide variety of uses – such as in the manufacture of explosives, paper – most banknotes are actually made from cotton paper.

Cotton production in Kyrgyzstan

In the days of the Soviet Union, the collective planners in Moscow decided that the Ferghana valley should become a center for cotton production and set in motion measures to bring this about … plowing up grazing land and damming rivers to provide irrigation for the incredibly thirsty cotton crop, chemical fertilized were purchased and distributed and pretty soon the valley was harvesting thousands of tons of cotton a year.

In recent years, production levels have fluctuated considerably.  with a low of 60,000 bales (in 1993) and peaking at 248, (in 2004).  The variation is partly due to climatic conditions, but also to variations in the area of land used for the crop year by year, (as in, for example, in 2013 when poor prices paid to farmers the previous year led to few acres being planted with the crop), and the availability of fertilizers and pesticides, … and other socio-economic factors such as  improved techniques as farmers receive specialist training – thanks partly to the intervention of international donor organizations.

It’s a cash crop and has a significant impact on the economy of the whole region.  When the Soviet Union collapsed, the market for cotton diminished, which led to a downturn in production – according to one source the acreage dedicated to the crop fell by something like 70% – which in turn led to widespread unemployment in the region and increasing poverty among those who worked in its production.

Over the last ten years or so, there have been several projects supported by international donors that have introduced farmers to Organix Cotton production.  Although they tend to achieve lower yields they also benefit from lower production costs and premium prices … not to mention additional sources of income from diversification from the production of by-products, (such as Cotton oil for cooking, and press cake for animal feed), which all help to lead to an increase in net profits.  In additional these projects also provide for greater access to credit which in turn reduces the pressure on farmers to sell livestock during hard times and perceived improvements in soil.

According to official figures, something like 25% of the production is exported … although some people say the real figure is far greater.  Earlier this year, it was announced that Pakistan is looking to purchase Kyrgyz cotton … even though it is a major producer in its right.

A pony?

I am not sure if there is a recognized collective noun to describe a gathering of Prime Ministers  … in my search I came up with a number of humourous suggestions, but I would would like to suggest one … at least for Kyrgyz Prime Ministers … a Pony of Prime Ministers. 

If you can have a shrewdness of apes, a blush of boys, a flutter of butterflies, a murder of crows, a convocation of eagles … and so on, why not a Pony of Prime Ministers?

It has a nice “ring” – with a pleasing alliteration, (a P of P …), so, once again, why not?

Let me explain … one of my hobbies when I was a Maths teacher back in Britain, was collecting Maths textbooks.

It all started with a desire to find material that I could use in the classroom – both as a search for explanations and exercises.

Every author had a different way of expressing themselves and I found the different approaches useful when considering how to tackle a new topic with a class – every class is also different and what works with one class might not work so well with another.

The exercises were also helpful because all I had to do was copy them up on the board before setting the class loose to try and solve them.  If I tried making the questions up on the spur of the moment, then I often found I made mistakes and could quite easily make up a problem which turned out to be impossible.  At least the questions out of of a published textbook should be tried and tested.  Then for homework, I could set an exercise out of the textbook that had been issued to the class.

As I accumulated more and more textbooks, I discovered that the books were fascinating in many different respects in their own right.  Some of the topics had disappeared from the curriculum to be replaced by more modern topics … Euclid’s deductive geometry giving way to set theory and matrices for example.

One of the biggest differences came about in 1971 – on 15th February Britain dropped the old monetary system of Pounds, Shillings and Pence (where one pound was made up of 20 shillings, each worth 12 pence – so a pound contained 240 pence), and adopted the Decimal system of Pounds and Pence … one pound comprising of just 100 pence. No longer were pupils tortured with questions like:

£25 3s 3½d + £17 16s 11¼d - £11  6s 2¾d

Mind you, it wasn’t just in terms of money … even well after this, we were still using the Imperial system of weights and Measures – inches, feet, yards and miles instead of centimeters, meters and kilometers; ounces, pounds, stone and hundredweights instead of grams, kilograms and tonnes; fluid ounces, pints, quarts and gallons instead of milliliters and liters … and not forgetting the groat and the grain, rod, pole and perch, the chain and the acre … and a host of others which (I have to admit) can still confuse me to this day.

Returning to money … there were other complications like farthings, a tanner, florins, the half crown and crown, the sovereign and the guinea.  Some were official terms, whereas others, (tanner and bob) were common slang.

In somewhat antiquated British slang, a Pony was a term used for twenty five pounds, (£25), and it was often used in gambling circles to describe a bet of £25 on a horse in a race.

So … that explains the Pony … it stands for 25 … but what’s the connection with Prime Ministers?

The CIS “league table”

Well … over the weekend we learned that, according to the National Institute for Strategic Studies, (NISS), Kyrgyzstan has achieved first place in the CIS, (the Commonwealth of Independent States – comprising of most of the constituent  Republics of the former Soviet Union  -with 9 full members, 2 “participating states” and one “former member” … Georgia), when it comes to the number of Prime Ministers in the 23 years since the break up of the USSR … you guessed it … 25!

Pointing out the obvious, that the average term of office is less than a year, they went on to draw comparisons and conclusions about a linkage between the frequency of changes of government and indicators of socio-economic development … suggesting that in countries where there was a stable system of government there is usually a steady economic growth and relative social stability … and that, conversely, where the governments is “sensitive to political agendas”, then those indicators tend be negative.

Some international comparisons

It’s interesting to see that Russia comes in third place in this league table with 14 Prime Ministers … but I presume Vladimir Vladimirovich would point to the last few years since 2008 when they have had only two people in that role, himself and Dmitry Medveded, (that is, if you don’t count Voctor Zubkov’s one day in 2012 as Acting Prime Minister when Putin re assumed the Presidency and before he appointed Medvedev), and they’ve had a more stable record of economic growth than in the early years when the other people held the office.

The NISS then went on to hint that, in fact, it might not just be a record within the CIS – but might even constitute a world record!  To underline their point, they make some comparisons with a selection of other countries over the same period.  It’s not a definitive list – for example it doesn’t mention Italy’s 13 Prime Ministers during this period, or Belgium’s 7.

Now, although there have been 25 Prime Ministers, it’s not quite that simple … it doesn’t mean, for example, that there have been 25 individuals to hold down the job:

• three people have held the post twice, Boris Saliev, (in the capacity as Acting Prime Minister), Kurmanbek Bakiev and Almazbek Atambaev;
• seven people were Acting Prime Minister and were never appointed as Head of the Government in their own right … … hey, you have to have someone in post or else the business of government will grind to a halt.  One of them, Boris Saliev, (on the first occasion he held the job), held the portfolio for just two days – another for 4 days … and the second time that Saliev stepped into the breach, it was for just over a week.  In their short tenure, they would not have had any significant effect on the affairs of state by reorganizing the structure or composition of the government nor have attempted to introduce new policies or innovations;
• following the Revolution in 2010, the post of Prime Minister basically didn’t exist until following the Parliamentary elections in November that year, (Roza Otunbaeva combined the roles of of Head of State along with that of the Head of Government as the Chairman of the Interim Government).

The longest serving Prime Minister in the country’s 23 year history was Apas Djumagulov – who served for 1561 days – that’s just over four years and four months … not as long as Tony Blair or Margaret Thatcher … but longer than 23 of Britain’s 53 Prime Ministers and longer than David Cameron has held the post.  When you consider that he had also served for almost five years as Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Khirgiz Soviet Socialist Republic, his combined time in office to just short of 9 years – which would put him on a par with both Asquith and Winston Churchill … serving about 100 days longer than both of them.

For the record … here’s a list of the Pony of Kyrgyz Prime Ministers and their 25 terms of office:

The “Pony” of Kyrgyz Prime Ministers

Please don’t misunderstand me – I am not saying that the NISS are wrong or that they don’t have a point when they say that an average term of office of just 340 days implies problems when it comes to the question of stability in the country … just that the situation is a bit more complicated than might appear at first glance from the straight forward, attention grabbing, headline figure.

Suicide rates in 2002 – according to the World Health Organization

As a former schoolteacher, I always take an interest in news reports about education … so, I was intrigued last December to see a report of a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Social Policy addressed by the Deputy Minister of Education and Science who quoted a number of very interesting statistics – another of my abiding interests.

She told the deputies, for example, that for the academic year 2012-3 (September 2012-June 2013) the authorities had “registered”:

• a total of 142 “bundles” as we used to call them when I was school – here they are called “group fights” (I wonder if that means what it says or if it includes one-on-one fights that are sufficiently severe to warrant “registration” – e.g. a formal complaint is made or someone needs to go to hospital)  …
  • 74 of them were between boys but a surprising 68 were between girls!
  • 18 cases of attacks on children from other schools
  • it’s not exactly clear from the reports that I read, but it seems that there were another 19 “attempts at group fights”
• 226 children were registered as “leaving home” … which I presume means “run away” from home;
• 315 “accidents” – although there were no details in the reports that I saw as to what sort of incident this referred to;
• 834 cases of racketeering and extortion;
• 157 cases of “malicious hooliganism”;
• 7 bomb hoaxes;
• the social services and psychologists had conducted something like 2500 conversations with schoolchildren … and 16000 meetings with their parents (!)

Considering that last point in particular …  I couldn’t help wondering why there was such an imbalance in the ratio of children to parents … almost six and a half  times more consultations with parents than with the children … what does that tell us?

Much more striking, however, was the fact that she reported that, in the last two years,  some 121 children had committed suicide.

I am not sure if such statistics are kept elsewhere in the world … but it would be fascinating to see the equivalent figures for, say, the UK.  According to one set of data that I have seen, in 2011 suicide accounted for 582, or 1.36% of all deaths in the country .. or 11.4 deaths per 100,000 … and it was number 17 in the hierarchy of causes of death in the country, (after such things as Hearth Disease, Stroke,  … Tuberculosis, Road Traffic Accidents … Cancer of the Stomach, Breast and Lungs).  It ranked 50th place in the world (out of 192 countries and territories).

Historically, according the World Health Organization, the figures are:

To put this into a wide context … according to the website suicide.org, (quoting data from the World Health Organization), in 2004 the suicide rate in Kyrgyzstan was 8.9 per 100,000 which put it in 50th place – below, for example: Lithuania, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, (which held the top 4 places), Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark,Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South Korea and Switzerland, (in alphabetical order) … oh, and the US (in 43rd place with 11.0) … (and, for the record, the United Kingdom came in 62nd place at 7.0).  The global suicide rate was 16 per 100,000.

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As it happens, there seems to have been a growing trend of more and more attention being given to the issue of suicide in news reports.

Back in 2012 we saw protests being organized about the problems being faced by people having taken loans from various Microfinance institutions and being unable to make repayments due, they said, to the exorbitant rates of interest which were being charged – and it was alleged that the pressure was such that many chose to commit suicide when they realized that they couldn’t make the repayments that were due.  It is true that rates were higher – higher than those offered by high street banks – and even some of those who took out loans from such mainstream banks also faced difficulties and similar pressures.   The campaign had, however, hit a sore point and several politicians joined in the cause with lots of them using the word “usury” in their condemnation of “excessive” interest rates.  The National Bank started to pay closer attention and suspended the licenses of several institutions, closed others and basically things have changed quite a bit – for the better, I hope.

In July, 2012, we were treated to a report about the rise of incidences of suicide – particularly in the South … the number of cases in Osh had quadrupled compared to the precious year were “alarming society”  The vast majority (80%) had involved women, (taking medicines or poison, whereas the men tended to hang themselves or jump from a height, so we were told).  Whilst some connections were drawn with trying to cope with the extraordinary pressures of trying to cope with the stresses following in the wake of the disturbances two years earlier, some felt that the main causes for the rise were economic … especially the lack of employment opportunities.  The authorities turned to the religious authorities, social services, youth groups and schools to help address the issue … in sermons, training sessions, seminars and discussions and role play.

Then, in March last year,  we were told that Kyrgyzstan had the second highest suicide rate in Central Asia with 17.7 suicides per 200,000 people*. Kazakhstan had the honour of being top of this unfortunate league table with an astounding 52.4 suicides (!) whilst Tajikistan came had the lowest with just 5.2, (there were no figures available for Turkmenistan).  Oddly enough, Kazakhstan also highest GNP figure at over $10,000 per person, whereas Kyrgyzstan with just just over $2000 had the lowest … so, even if it was a significant contributing factor behind the figures of suicide, it doesn’t look as economics was the most significant factor.

*Why the statistics were quoted per 200,000 population I don’t know … elsewhere the figures are always quoted per 100,000 … 17.7 per 200,000 presumably equates to 8.85 per 100,000 … which, oddly enough, equates quite well with the figures quoted earlier.

Indeed, in June the previous year, there was a considerable outcry when, in a highly publicized case,  a young woman, (20 years old) committed suicide as the result of having been the victim of a “bride kidnapping”.  The practice of Ala Kachuu is highly controversial … some consider that it is “tradition” or simply a case of a couple eloping – the equivalent of “running off to Gretna Green”, (as in some cases it really is), or a necessity forced on young people who cannot afford the expense of a wedding … whilst others consider it to be reprehensible.  In this particular case, it appears, the young woman was not a consenting party to the arrangement and faced pressure to conform to tradition … but in the end decided that she couldn’t cope and there was only one course of action left open to her.

Another contributing factor also came to light in October when it was reported that just over 1% of all childbirths in Kyrgyzstan were registered to teenagers and that, annually, there were about 1200 abortions among adolescents aged between 12 and 17 – i.e. schoolgirls.  What is more, the number cases of early motherhood, teenage abortions, unregistered child marriages, abandoned babies, suicides and deaths among teenage mother was increasing.

Also in October, came the news that there had been up to that point there had been 79 suicides committed by schoolchildren since the beginning of the year.  That statistic was revealed in a meeting considering the issue of “racketeering” among teenagers (basically, extortion under threat) and it was suggested that most of these cases represented children from low income families … so, once again, in a way economics was being cited as an important factor.   The question of bullying and “organized gangs” wasn’t being ignored, however, and the Ministry of Education and Science started pushing for increased penalties for such activities – including holding parents responsible for the actions of their offspring.

A month later another potential aspect of the issue came to light when it was revealed that some 21 soldiers serving in the military had died during the year – although it was suggested at a rally of the mothers of conscripts that they thought is was around 100.  One of the speakers went on to cite hazing, saying that most of the soldiers “moved to suicide by the officers and non-commissioned officers”.  There is a lot of concern expressed here about living conditions in the military.  Although some soldiers are volunteers, under contract, many are conscripts straight from school.  Last year a video appeared on social media which appeared to show recruits being berated and abused by their NCO and it led to quite to quite an outcry – albeit a short lived one.  As it happens, there are quite a lot of stories about abuse in the services in other countries – especially Russia, but also, I am sorry to have to admit, in places like the US and the UK … including cases which have to suicide.  It’s not clear from the reports, however, how many of these 21 deaths represented suicides … one of the mothers, for example, had succeeded in obtaining forensic evidence that “proved” her son had not committed suicide but had been shot.

At the end of the year came somewhat surprising news that the Ministry of Social Development were planning to open a Crisis Center for Men … there already are several for women, including one financed by donations from the Manas Transit Center (… which, incidentally, is reported to have never opened its doors after it was completed).  In announcing its plans, the Ministry pointed out that the figures for things like the death rate aged between 35 and 65 were higher among men than women (three times higher) … alcohol addition was higher (by a factor of eight) … and suicide rates were four times higher.  That’s not to mention the rates for certain illnesses which were higher for men than for women.  What is more, men are less likely to seek help when experiencing stress, having to cope with “high expectations” placed on men’s roles which aggravates the situation.  When I saw the report, however, the cynic in me couldn’t help asking if this really was a case of Kyrgyzstan becoming a more liberated, egalitarian society … or if someone was trying to make a point … the way those statistics were being quoted seemed a little disingenuous.  However, for the purpose of today’s postcard … note that it was claimed that among men in this age group the suicide rate is four times than that among women.

On Monday we saw some interesting statistics … which led to some apparently conflicting reports:

• The Deputy Defense Minister reported to the Parliamentary Committee on Defense and Security and told them that last year saw some 47 illegal actions, soldiers taking absence without leave, robberies and other offences … that 15 soldiers and officers were killed: 3 were killed in road accidents,  and 3 were killed in  road accidents, another 3 died from illness, one as a result of “hazing”, and another after a fight with a civilian, two drowned and another died of carbon monoxide poisoning … and then there were some 3 facts of suicide recorded;
• At the same meeting, the Military Prosecutor reported that in the defense units there were seven suicide attempts and (if I understood the Russian correctly) another five further attempts.  In 2012 there had been 12 suicide attempts, 11 of them successful.  The apparent discrepancy with the previous report was explained when he gave a more detailed breakdown: three suicides were reported in the Ministry of Defense – as the Deputy Minister reported, but there was also another three in the Interior Ministry, one in the anti narcotics service, and an attempt in the border Service.  It was interesting to note that he also said, there are several criminal cases opened in relation to the cases, which suggests that they might have been related to hazing.
• A different news agency reporting on the same meeting said that there had been some 12 cases of suicide – (not 3 nor 7 … but, I suppose could, if we accept the other reports, relate to the 12 attempts the previous year) – which had led to four criminal cases and, in addition, that there had been some 860 violations – including the misuse of funds, which seem to led to just 12 prosecutions.

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To be honest … although, in the past, I have thought several times about writing this postcard, (for example – I was thinking of it for September 19th last year … to commemorate International Suicide Prevention Day), but I have always put it off as too depressing a topic … so, why did I change my mind?

The choice of today is tied up with those strange statistics … but there’s also another reason …

It just so happens that I recently saw a link to a “Stop Suicide” – (“enough is enough”) – website which offered a list of “crisis lines”, telephone numbers for people who felt that they were at their ends of their tether to call for help.  It promised: someone who will listen to YOU; who will make time for you; who will not be judgmental; who will not pressure you; who will not offer advice (how can they? … no-one knows exactly how YOU feel and what YOU’RE going through), or tell you what to do … with telephone numbers to call in many countries around the globe.

So, I went and had a look … and it seemed quite promising … they even had a pages in Russian … (not in Kyrgyz, but that wasn’t really surprising – not even Google or Wikipedia have managed that yet …).

The “Find help in your area” page had a pull down list of countries around the globe and I tried Kyrgyzstan … but they had no numbers for help services here in their database.

Again, that didn’t really surprise me … but I was a little surprised that, although they had pages in Russian, they had no services listed for the Russian Federation either.

So, I did some asking around … and I found one service … but to be honest, I know nothing about them apart from what they say on their website, and I have to admit to some reservations …

• they are a private medical service and at 2000 som for an initial consultation, (1600 som by skype) they are not necessarily cheap … and probably out of the price range of those “low income families” identified earlier,
• the offer to “give answers to those who want to get them!” … if only it was that simple.

The Profile Picture from the official Facebook Community Page for International Migrants Day

On 18th December, 1990, the UN General Assembly adopted the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families and ten years later, (on 4th December, 2000),  they designated that every year this should be commemorated as International Migrants Day.

The decision underscored the fact that international migration is a growing phenomenon – in recent years the number of migrants worldwide has increased significantly as official statistics show – according to some estimates every 35th person on earth is a migrant … many far from home, in strange and unfamiliar circumstances and often in need of help and support … and I suppose that includes me.

In addition, it was felt that the phenomenon could make a positive contribution to development, both in countries of origin where the migrants hailed from and also their countries of destination …  provided that it was supported by the right policies.

That included respect for the fundamental rights and freedoms of all migrants as an essential to reap the benefits of international migration, and in order to achieve this it was necessary to recognize the importance of strengthening international cooperation on bilateral, regional and global bases.

To this end, UN Member States, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations are invited to observe the day by disseminating information by carrying out various activities such as workshops and seminars, giving people the opportunity to share experiences and establish activities to help ensure the protection of the rights of migrant workers and their families.

One of the questions I am asked here is “Why is it so difficult to obtain a British visa?” … and I have to explain that, in addition to our form of bureaucracy, immigration is, (and has been for as long as I can remember), one of the hottest issues in British domestic politics.

There is often concern expressed about the number of foreigners who travel to Britain and stay – taking jobs, (even though many of those jobs are ones that the Brits themselves aren’t interested in doing); drawing state benefits of one sort or another, that are designed for and paid for by the British taxpayer, (although the system is such that it’s not always that easy to do – I know having accompanied a Kyrgyz citizen to a London Hospital Outpatients Clinic … I think that the fee we paid was far more than for the service we received – and is constantly being tightened); and a sense that something distinctive about our way of life and society, (“Britishness”?), is in some way under threat by the number of “aliens” living among us.

I also point out that none of this is unique to Britain … I have heard similar comments expressed about the situation in France, Germany, Switzerland, America, Russia and even, dare I say it, Kyrgyzstan.

In fact the situation surrounding the plight of migrant workers has been somewhat of a hot topic here recently.  There seems, however, to be some confusion about how many migrant workers there are, both from Kyrgyzstan and in Kyrgyzstan.  Regular readers of my postcards will know that I take a somewhat sanguine view of official statistics … and will not be surprised when I point out that there seems to be conflicting figures on this topic:

According to the Foreign Ministry in February, there were over 500,000 migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan in Russia and another 200,000 in Kazakhstan – although the spokesman did concede that these were “approximate estimations”.

Then in April the Kyrgyz Consul General, (who works for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs), was reported as saying that there “around 50-60 thousand citizens of Kyrgyzstan” in Kazakhstan … apart from the startling difference in the actual figures – note that the basis changed from “migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan” to “citizens of Kyrgyzstan” … which could well include family members, pensioners … and so on.

In August the Ministry of Labout – a different government department, to be fair – reported that over 30,000 were abroad, in “developed countries”, adding that around 350,000 to 500,000 citizens of Kyrgyzstan work outside the country at different times of the year … varying between 5% and 10% of the economically active population.

The population of Kyrgyzstan is just over five million – so 500,000 would be about 10% of the population … but not all of those five million represents the “economically active” population … so there seems to be some confusion here.

The highest number, the report added, being “approximately 350,000 in Russia” – so, so much for 500,000 and for all the other countries if that figure is accurate.

In September, an announcement of a planned TV series to be shot which would depict the problems and achievements of Kyrgyz citizens abroad, included the assertion that “about a third of the population stays abroad for different reasons”, most of them in Russia – so everyone seems to be agreed on that point … if not on the actual number of proportion of the population.

Also in September, the Russian Federal Migration Service announced that 576,400 migrants from Kyrgyzstan in the country – 358,000 men and 218,400 women.   (Is it just me, I wonder, or does that 358,ooo figure look suspiciously similar to the 350,000 quoted elsewhere … and if so, is this an example of women being, once more, “overlooked”?)

Then, in October, the Deputy Minister of Labour, Migration and Youth reported that there were 495,000 migrant workers currently in Russia … 120,000 of them had work permits and another 80,000 worked using “patents”, (a sort of license granted for one off payments accounting for their tax obligations and granting the holder certain rights), but the rest were basically illegal migrants.

That was, at least in keeping with comments and complaints coming out of Russia … so far this year something like 1000 Kyrgyz citizens have been deported from Russia for violations of the migration law … apparently one of their biggest complaints concerns the number of Kyrgyz who overstay their allotted 90 days.

A few days later, however, Consular Department of the Foreign Ministry was reported as saying that there were 571,716 Kyrgyz citizens in Russia – and that this figure included 78,000 minors, and 8,600 pensioners over 60 … I suppose that assuming all of the others were migrant workers – and some of the pensioners might also be, then that almost tallies with the 495,000 figure …

In November it was admitted that Kyrgyz and Russian figures on the number of migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan in the Russian Federation differed from each other – and this time the Eurasian Economic Commission quoted a figure of 530,000.

That figure, (well, 529000), was repeated yesterday at a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Social Policy – when it was also reported / confirmed that just over half (52%) were located in Moscow and the Moscow region.  One further interesting snippet from that meeting was that in the last 20 years, some 450,000 Kyrgyz received Russian citizenship … I presume that means Kyrgyz citizens rather than people of Kyrgyz ethnicity.

Also in November, it was reported by the Foreign Ministry that, during the first nine months of the year some 496,000 Kyrgyz citizens had left for Russia … but only 67,000 had the necessary work permits – with another 60,000 receiving patents or licenses.  That report also went on to say that the vast majority,  85%, traveled to Moscow and the surrounding region – however, it is interesting to note that the parliament has suggested opening consulates in St. Petersburg and Krasnoyarsk … so, presumably, as there is a perceived need for them, there are probably a significant number of Kyrgyz living in these areas as well.

 Even if the detail of the statistics appear contradictory – they do give an overall scale of the issue and its associated problems.

In theory, at least, the Russian statistics are supported by the decision earlier this year to create a special database of migrant workers which has helped to identify some of the major violations of the legislation … and led to the deportations.

As well as running the official gauntlet and risking deportation, Migrant workers also face considerable social prejudice and even what could be described as xenophobia … with the number and severity of incidents against them increasing – both individual attacks and riots (in one case leading to some 380 people being detained) – which are often blamed on reaction to the illegal status of many migrant workers.

One of the ways suggested for dealing with violations of the legislation dealing with migration is to introduce a visa regime – not just for Kyrgyz citizens but for all Central Asian countries.  This has been mooted by several parties in Russia, perhaps most worryingly by the Health Ministry who claim that migrant workers bring with them health problems.  Other government departments, and the Duma, (the Russian parliament), have denied any plans to implement such a measure – and even President Putin has expressed his opposition to it, saying it would introduce more problems than it would solve.

Actually, health issues do appear to be a problem – especially getting access to medical assistance … just as it was for my friend in London.  Without the necessary registration, migrants have no right to access medical services – and, on top of that, most of the migrants from Kyrgyzstan do ot have any form of health insurance, and this has been the subject of discussions with both Kazakhstan and Russia.

Another long term social issue is the provision of pensions for migrant workers.  Apparently, a special pension has been proposed to help provide them with one.

If there are currently almost eighty thousand minors currently in living Russia, there are many more left behind in the country of origin – often living in what is effectively a single parent family or being cared for by grandparents – reliant on the remittances sent home by the migrant worker.

Apart from the social strains and stresses that this places on the home community, the remittances are a vital part of the Kyrgyz economy – indeed one commentary last year described them as a “lifeline” – a lifeline worth one and a half billion dollars in 2011.

For the record: According to a report on AkiPress, yesterday, “Natural persons transfer $1.87 billion from abroad for the first 10 months 2013“.

The volume of cash flows to Kyrgyzstan transferred by natural persons in January-October 2013 amounted to $1.874 billion. $1.834 billion or 97.8% accounts for Russia, according to the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan.

$21.8 million were transferred from Kazakhstan, $17.8 million – from non-CIS countries. The volume of cash outflows amounted to $294.5 million. $287.7 million or 97.6% were transferred to Russia.

For 10 months of 2013, net balance of transfers amounted to $1.579 billion.

The volume of outflows increased by 43.6%, and inflows – by 12.3% compared to the same period in 2012.

Kyrgyz exports are far outweighed by imports – according to some sources by a factor of three to one.  This shortfall is ameliorated by the funds sent back to Kyrgyzstan which not only help the families to cope financially but also to helps to reduce the foreign debt thus incurred.

That’s a clear example of how Migrant workers help both the host country (by providing much needed labour) and the country of origin (providing much needed financial resources and helping to maintain  an improved standard of living.)

One of the big question marks which now faces the migrant worker … is the prospect of Kyrgyzstan joining Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in the Customs Union.  Along with the accession of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union there is supposed to be an agreement allowing migrant workers to travel freely within the member countries – similar to the arrangements in the European Union – which, as I understand it, would remove the need to receive work permits and other forms of permissions.  

If, however, as recent developments suggest, this may not be imminent – it was all supposed to be settled by the end of this year – then the status of migrant workers in each of the member countries still represents an issue that has to be addressed. 

Interestingly, a couple of days ago, the President made a suggestion that, instead of travelling abroad in order to find work, the youth of the country should look for work at home … most of the employment that they usually end up taking is basically “low paid service industry jobs”.  He thinks it is possible for them find work here, (although I suspect of people – young people especially – might take issue with that sentiment … and it is not clear how the economy might cope without the influx of foreign capital that people in these “low paid service industry jobs” do manage to save and send home to their families).  If they feel that they must travel abroad, he added, then

1. they should make sure that they learn the language and laws of their host country
2. it is better to go to study
3. unless they manage to obtain “good jobs” – by which I presume he means high value, skilled, high paying jobs.

Interestingly, the Prime Minister also made an intervention in the debate yesterday, with the news that Kyrgyzstan is proposing that of solving the various issues for both Russia and Kyrgyzstan arising out of the current situation is to impose quotas … I am not sure how well that will go down.

It would be wrong to leave this topic without acknowledging that Kyrgyzstan is not only the source of migrant workers – it also plays host to a large number of them – many from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China.

According to a report on AkiPress yesterday, “Kyrgyzstan issues 10,500 work quotas for foreigners in 2013, mostly Chinese citizens” – 70% going to the Chinese.

It has been mooted to introduce Identity Cards for migrant workers to help control their numbers, movement and employment.

If Kyrgyz migrant workers in Russia are accused of working without the necessary documentation, (work permits, registration, overstaying the time they are allowed to remain in the country and so forth), the Kyrgyz also accuse the migrant workers to whom they play host, of the same violations … and they have deported many. 

There also seems to be what looks suspiciously like an element of xenophobia creeping into relationships with some of the groups of migrant workers – especially those from China … with fights breaking out between workers and members of the local population and, recently, reports of attacks on Chinese citizens – even in their own homes.

So, the statistics are not clear … but the issues are … and are pretty universal … in Britain, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and, no doubt across the globe – that’s probably why we need am International Migrants Day – or should that be International Migrants’ Day.

80 - a sad statistic

One of the saddest pieces of news last week is that, so far this year, some 80 people have drowned Kyrgyzstan’s canals, rivers and lakes – including some 21 children – about 25%.

Unfortunately there was no information about the equivalent figures for previous years so it is not possible to put that statistic into any sort of context – however, 80 in eight months seems quite high to me for a country of just five and a half million people.  That’s 10 a month – one for every three days.

In the United States, with a population sixty times greater, (about 317 million), it seems that drowning ranks fifth among the leading causes of death with about ten people drowning every day, (which is just 30 times higher than in Kyrgyzstan) … and, of these, two are children aged 14 or younger – or 20%.  What is more, it has been estimated that for each death, there are up to 4 nonfatal “submersions” serious enough to result in hospitalization … and, to make matters worse, children who still require “cardiopulmonary resuscitation”, (CPR), when they arrive at the emergency department  have a poor prognosis, with at least half of the survivors suffering significant neurological damage.

In Britain, where the population with a population of about 64 million, (twelve or thirteen times greater than that of Kyrgyzstan), in 2012 there was 371 deaths recorded from drowning – that is just over one a day (three times the rate in Kyrgyzstan) … with 18 being children under 14 –  about 18% of the total.

As the MChS – the Ministry of Emergency Situations – notes Summer, the time for holidays, is a time when people enjoy relaxing by the waterside – and, indeed, most of those deaths, (66), have come in what they call “the swimming season”.  It’s therefore important, they say, to learn the “rules of conduct on the water” – in Britain we call it “The Water Safety Code“.  Here is a summary of the advice they have on their website:

Swimming:

Although swimming is a pleasant activity – it is important not to overdo it … as it is easy to catch a cold.  How long someone can stay in the water varies on a number of factors such as both the air and the water temperatures, and the wind strength.  The most favourable conditions for swimming is when it is clear with no wind – with an air temperature of at 25°C and water temperature of 18°C.  Even then, they advise spending only a limited time in the water: about 6-87 minutes if the water is 18° C, 10-12 minutes if it is 20° C and upto 1`5 minutes if it is above 20° C.

It is NOT advisable to swim in temperatures of 15°C or less.

Whatever the temperature, they advise that if you feel a chill then you should immediately get out of the water and take a short but vigorous jog along the shore.

They also point out  that it is best not to swim for about an hour and a half following a meal.

The choice of a safe place is also important … everyone, they say, should be aware of the features and dangers of places that are safe – and dangerous – for swimming.  They recommend trying to select a location where there is equipment and the means where there is equipment and the means to prevent accidents … they don’t mention this, but I presume they also mean in order to offer assistance in the event of an accident … in other words (my words, that is) it is best to avoid deserted, unattended, locations.

Indeed, they say that children should not swim unattended – only in the presence of adults and that they should be taught about how to behave in the water and the necessary precautions.

In children’s camps, they actually recommend that the swimming is not only supervised but controlled to ensure that children do not stay in the water for too long.

Before the beginning of the summer season, the resorts and lagers around Lake Issyk Kul should inspect the waters, and clear away any dangerous objects.  There should also be a medical (First Aid) post, umbrellas and/or canopies for protection from the sun.

The point about the provision of shade is to prevent the body from overheating … which can lead tio nausea, vomiting, headaches, weakness, shallow and rapid breathing … and going suddenly into cold water can lead to cold shock

Special areas should be designated for diving – and people should not dive from other places because of the risk of there being submerged logs, rocks or driftwood.

No-one should swim in swampy areas where there is algae or slime.

The advise against the use of flotation devices – inflatable mattresses, car tyres and the like, as they can be easily damaged leaving the swimmer in deep water – out of their depth.

Accidents:

Accidents can result from all sorts of situations:

• not being aware of the risks
• inability to recover and escape after getting into difficulty
• swimmers over extending themselves by swimming for too long – exhaustion
• swimming in a storm
• swimming in a state of intoxication
• the person not being able to swim and getting out of their depth
• hypothermia setting in
• cramps setting in
• bursts or punctures of inflatable means of support
• lack of supervision
• hooliganism
• hitting an unexpected object … especially when diving or jumping
• a shock to the body when hitting the water when diving or jumping into the water – especially from a height
• … and so on

Boating:

In the event of falling in the water, it is important to try and remain calm … not to panic … and avoid sudden movements.  Breathe deeply and try to assume a vertical position whilst trying to keep the air in your lungs for as long as possible.

Cramps:

“Cramps”, (painful, involuntary seizures or muscle contractions) – which can be simply “embarrassing when they occur on dry land … but can be seriously debilitating and frightening when someone is in the water.

If the cramp occurs

• in the thigh muscle – then the leg should be bent at the knee and the heel of the palm should be pressed against the source of the pain
• in the hand – then the fingers should be flexed and relaxed in a dramatic and emphasized fashion . the seimmer should lie horizontally working with the other hand under water
• in the abdominal muscles- then the knees should be pulled up to the stomach
• in the calf muscles – then the leg should be lifted above the surface of the water and stretched vigorously

Administering First Aid:

If someone has “drowned”, (or as the Americans put it, “submersed”), the first thing to do is to get them out of the water … raise their head above the water and keep it there until reaching the shore, where their condition can be properly assessed.

If they are conscious, then they should be wiped dry and carried to a warm room where they should be placed on a board or blanket and not on the cold ground … again it’s a question of controlling the loss of temperature.  Here, they can drink hot tea or coffee.  (To be honest, that point surprised me a little).

If they the person is, (or has been), unconscious, then a doctor should be called … and, if they are still unconscious, artificial respiration should be applied.  This should include alternately laying the victim on his stomach and squeezing the side of his chest as well as putting him on his back and trying to pump air into his lungs.  It’s important, they say, to continue this as one of the most common mistakes, apparently, is to cease efforts too soon.

All of this seems sensible, good advice … but in my searching the internet I came across a number of other “codes” which also contained what seemed good advice … my favourite was this one from the Hillingdon Swimming Club:

The Water Safety Code from Hillingdon Swimming Club (London)

Most of the advice is pretty general and would apply anywhere … even here in Kyrgyzstan – although the telephone numbers in the fourth point would have to be adapted to local conditions.

As it says: Have Fun but Stay Safe!

A couple of days ago I was sent a link to their latest report – the result of a different survey called the Global Corruption Barometer, (GCB), which they claim to be “the only worldwide public opinion survey on views and experiences of corruption”

I had never heard of this before which is, perhaps, not all that surprising because although the survey has been conducted for 10 years, (since 2003 – although there seems to have been a couple of gaps – in 2008 and 2012, and in 2011 it was simply an addendum to another report), and because the structure of the report changes from year to year.

For example, some of the questions asked in the survey each might change, but also the number of countries in which the survey is held has varied from just 14, (in 2011), to 107, (this year).

Still, the results were fascinating and surprising and, although some care may be needed when comparing results over time,  some trends can be seen over the years … data from the seven previous surveys are also available on the website .

Of course, I immediately went to look at the data for Kyrgyzstan – the first time we have been covered – but then went to see what information they had about the UK … and both were full of surprises.

The Global survey interviewed over 114,000 across 107 countries.  This is a significant difference between the GCB and the CPI – and their other flagship poll, the Bribe Payers Index, (BPI), in that instead of asking “experts”, (such as “informed observers” or business executives from international corporations); ordinary citizens were polled about the perceptions and experiences – how corruption impacts on their lives.  It’s a “grass roots” survey … and may provide a better estimate of public opinion.

However, in another caveat, I suppose that we also have to bear in mind another recent survey from the UK in which Royal Statistical Society and King’s College reported that public opinion is repeatedly “off the mark” on key social issues – public impressions deviating considerably from official statistics.

On the other hand … as this survey went on to ask respondents more direct questions like “Have you paid a bribe to any one of 8 services listed in the past 12 months?”, this may help to give more credence to the overall results.

It seems that, according to these results, 25% of the respondents across the globe … and some countries are notably absent from the analysis, admitted to paying a bribe in the last year.

In Kyrgyzstan, 45% of those asked said “Yes“: 48% in Education, 52% to the Judiciary, 38% to Medical and health services; 61% to the Police; 29% with regard to Registration and permits; 6% in connection with Utilities; 26% relating to Tax revenue and/or customs; and 34% related to Land Services.

Incidentally, in answer to another question, 56% said that they had been asked to pay a bribe – so some people refused … or found another way to solve their particular problem.  45% is still a pretty high figure, but an indicator that not everyone accepts corruption as an inevitable fact of life.

Here in Kyrgyzstan, a thousand people were interviewed, which means that the results are likely to be statistically significant and can be relied upon to be reasonable fair and accurate.  It’s possible that there will be some variation between the reported results and “reality”, that’s always the case ion any survey, but with 1000 respondents, the diversion from reality is likely to be small.

There’s another slight complication because, it seems, the face to face interviews were apparently conducted in eight urban areas across the country – so there was no data collected from the rural communities.  In some countries the survey was conducted online and in others by telephone – what they call “Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing – or CATI).

In some countries, the members of TI carried out the survey but in other, (including Kyrgyzstan), specialist market research companies were employed.  The interviews were held over the winter, (between September and March), and the data then checked and collated.  Their website has details of the controls they employed to try and ensure the reliability of the data and hence of the eventual results and conclusions.

Questions were asked about:

• how people perceived the situation regarding corruption in their country in general terms;
• the institutions where it seemed to be particularly prevalent;
• their opinion of the government’s response to the issue and its effectiveness,

and also about:

• their individual experiences in the past year;
• why people paid bribes, (for example: as a gift, or to express gratitude; to get a cheaper service; to speed things up; because it was the only way to obtain a service);
• whether they think individuals can make a difference in the fight against corruption;
• if, and how, they would be prepared to be involved in an anti-corruption campaign, (what action they would be prepared to undertake – for example, reporting it … if so, to whom … and if not, why not).

The reports in the local media seem to have concentrated on one particular aspect of the results: that 68% of the interviewees don’t believe in the effectiveness of counter-corruption measures adopted by the government, (curiously interpreting the 15% who responded that the measures were “neither effective nor ineffective” as “not being able to answer the question”), and that 62% said that ordinary people are unable to do anything to change the situation … although 42% of those surveyed were ready to report an incident.

The full report and country specific charts are available for download from their website along with some examples of the situations faced by ordinary people.

The results for Kyrgyzstan can be found here; and for the United Kingdom, here.  (As I said, I found surprises in both sets of data!)

It’s well worth a look! …

… as is this graphic:

Incidentally, on today’s BBC website, there’s an interesting piece on euphemisms that are used around the world for paying bribes.

Holiday entitlements in different countries

During recent years, as public holidays have approached, banners and signs have appeared bearing the slogan “Mairamynyzdar Menen!”

It’s obviously in Kyrgyz, so I asked a Kyrgyz member of staff what it meant – and was told that it’s the Kyrgyz equivalent of the Russian “Se Prazdnikom!” … “with the holiday!”.  It turn, this is an abbreviation of “Pozdraliyou se prazdnikom!“, or “I congratulate you with the holiday!”.

Sometimes, this general phrase is replaced by the name of the holiday; something like “Se pervova Maiya!“, “with the First of May!” or “”Pozdraliyou se pervova Maiya!“, “I congratulate you with the First of May!”

I am often asked for how we say this or that phrase in English and a common request is for the English equivalent of “se prazdnikom!”.  I try to explain that we don’t really have an equivalent universal phrase that can be used for any holiday – but probably the best equivalent is “Happy …” as in “Happy Christmas”, or “Happy Easter”.  There is a general phrase, “Happy Holidays”, but this tends to be used mainly for the extended period surrounding Christmas and New Year.

Public Holidays, of course, are Non-working Days … in the UK we tend to call them Bank Holidays, (which seems to emphasize the role of the financial services sector on life in Britain).  As it happens,

in the UK, there is no automatic right to time off on these days, although banks do close and the majority of the population is granted time off work or extra pay for working on these days … depending on their contract of employment.

Not all businesses, however, can simply close down …  for the day – Hotels, for example, not forgetting the emergency services … and in these days multinational companies operating in a  ”global village” and having to work “round the clock” and yet also having to accommodate public holidays in lots of different countries.     These days, many large shops open on bank holidays, when most people have a day off for shopping, heavily advertising sales and bargains.  That’s the reason why most employers grant their employees extra pay if they work on public holidays.

For the record: The first official bank holidays were the four days named in the Bank Holidays Act 1871, but today the term is used  colloquially, (albeit incorrectly), to refer public holidays which are not officially bank holidays according to the Act, for example: Good Friday and Christmas Day.

Not long ago I was intrigued to see an article with the headline: “Americans receive half the amount of vacation time of Russians“, which offered a summary of “paid and public holiday entitlements across the globe”.

You will probably have gathered that the article appeared on an American website … but I have seen similar outraged headlines in the Canadian and Irish press.

It referred to a recent survey by the website Hotels.com,  that looked into the levels of statutory holiday entitlement and public holiday allowances in several countries,  The US came in 25th place (out of 30 countries surveyed), with 20 days of paid holidays, comprising: an entitlement to 10 days annual leave and 10 public holidays.  Russia topped the list with 40 days off: 28 days of annual leave entitlement and 12 public holidays. … So, that’s where the headline came from.

To make matter worse … the press release from Hotels.com made reference to recent research which suggests that many Americans do not take their full holiday allowance.

I often say that the problem with statistics is that they seem to raise more questions than they answer …

Here’s a copy of the table of results:

The press release that accompanied the table, for example, was not exactly clear …  saying that “… on average, most Americans receive …” and I think it is reasonable to ask why they were “hedging” with phrases like “on average” and “most Americans” … As it happens, I think that I can understand this as not everyone works under the same terms and conditions.  Not everyone works the same number of days each week – some people work a five day week and others work a six-day week (usually, with a shorter working day) … and then there are part-time workers.

That point is made clear on the webpage of the British Government which outlines statutory holiday entitlement in the UK, but that gives me a problem because it states that “Almost all workers are legally entitled to 5.6 weeks paid holiday per year (known as statutory leave entitlement or annual leave)“, although that is “capped” at 28 days … but that is paid holiday … and does not include public holidays.

Under English law, “Bank or public holidays do not have to be given as paid leave. An employer can choose to include these holidays as part of a worker’s statutory annual leave” or make a additional payment for working on that day.

If the employee is happy to accept bank holidays as unpaid leave, then they are entitled to a total of 36 days off … 28 paid and 8 unpaid bank holidays … and Britain would have been on a par with Italy and Sweden.

The situation here in Kyrgyzstan is that according to the legislation:

• Employees are entitled to 28 calendar days paid leave , (although for some groups of workers it’s 30 calendar days).  … that is 4 full weeks … actually, it’s more … 4.67 weeks if you normally work a six day week and 5.6 weeks, (just like in the UK), if you work a 5 day week.  How’s that? …
• The stipulation “calendar days” is confusing … I am told that it’s “calendar days on which the employee would normally be working“.  Weekends and other non working are days that fall within the vacation are not counted … so, if an employee working a 6 day week takes their entire 28 day annual leave as one block, starting on February 1st, then they are not due back at work on March 1st but March 6th if they normally work a 6 day week and March 15th if they normally work a 5 day week.
• There are 11 public holidays: January 1st – New year; January 7th – Orthodox Christmas; February 23rd – Day of the Defender of Fatherland; March 8th – International Women’s Day; March 21st – National Holiday Noruz;  May 1st – Labour Day; May 5th – Constitution Day; May 9th – Victory Day; August 31st – Independence Day; November 7th – Day of the Great October Socialist revolution and the two Muslim holidays: “Orozo Ait” and “Kurman Ait”, (the dates of which are defined according to the lunar calendar).
• … but, (as in the UK), they are not paid
• … however, the working hours on days immediately preceding holidays are decreased by 1 hour – that is the working day finishes one hour earlier.
• … and any work on public holidays and days off must be compensated at no less than 100% higher than regular hours – that is double pay.
• It is possible for the employer to grant additional leave at their own discretion.

So, if Kyrgyzstan had been included in that table, we would have been in second place following Russia … with 28 days paid holiday and 11 public holidays making a total on 39 days off work.

Figure of the Day - 23796000

The other day I was sent a link to a news article that I hadn’t seen before even though it was a couple of weeks old and it’s a page that I frequently look at given my background in Mathematics and Statistics.

As I run a couple of hotels, my correspondent thought that it might be of interest to me … he was correct … it was … at least, it was at first glance … but then I began to feeling myself getting more and more frustrated by it.

The  featured “Figure of the Day” on the Vecherniye Bishkek website on 13th March was 23796000 – apparently that was the amount of taxes (in soms – that’s about half a million dollars) paid to the budget by the hotels in Bishkek last year … or was it?

I confess that I found myself confused … not so much by the detail that it gave, (and it did give some interesting facts and figures, albeit in a narrative form where a table or diagram might have been more helpful) … but by what was missing.

The report giving the background to this figure told us that the capital has 165 “guest houses” providing accommodation services and they broke down to:

• 79 hotels – presumably, (although this wasn’t actually stated), operate under the general tax regime, paying the full gambit of Corporation (or Profit) tax, VAT (Value Added Tax), Sales Tax, Land Tax, Property Tax and Garbage Tax (not forgetting income tax and contribution to the Social Fund)
• 18 individuals who paid what’s called the single unified tax – a simplified system of taxation and presumably operate small hotels or guesthouses offering Bed and Breakfast, (although that wasn’t actually specified) and
• 68 individuals who purchase what is called a “patent” – a one off payment that works on an assumed income and then releases the entrepreneur from having to keep accounts and make reports, no matter if they make more or less than this sum.

It then went on to give a breakdown by rayon – or district, (Bishkek is divided into four administrative Districts: Leninsky, Pervomaiskiy, Oktyabrskiy and Sverdlovskiy), and the narrative gave a breakdown as to how many “gostiniziy” there are in each district and the amount of taxes they paid … here’s the data in summary:

Advert for a gostinitza rented "by the hour"

The sting came in the next couple of paragraphs:

• these figures do NOT  include the larger hotels like the Hyatt Regency, Ak Keme and other hotels, (including, I might add, our hotel the Silk Road Lodge), as they pay taxes to the Large Taxpayers Unit, and not to the Rayons …  and also
• because, at least, “according to some reports”… “the majority of facilities that provide hotel services in the capital are not registered, mostly those that provide daily and hourly accommodation”.

So the statistics are not complete … which led me to ask myself, what was the point of publishing them?

It’s not as if the missing information is negligible and can safely be ignored … I don’t know the figures for the other large hotels, but our tax payments last year amount to a considerable percentage of the tax paid in our particular rayon according to these figures … and the Silk Road Lodge is a considerably smaller operation than some of the other hotels mentioned … which suggests to me that the hotel industry is actually contributing far more to the budget than is indicated here.  How much more, is hard to estimate.

They also seem to compare different things.

Although the term used in the report, “gostinitza“, is indeed used to refer to a Hotel … there is another word that has crept into the language – a “borrowed” word: “‘Otel“.  One reason for this is that the term gostinitza is also used for any place which is rented out for temporary accommodation – for example, an apartment given for rent … or a room “rented by the hour”.

They did, however, present us with some interesting information.  To be honest, although I was aware that the number of  competitors has increased, I didn’t know there were that so many “hotels” in Bishkek, (“… I am going to have to do some more research … and update my list!”, I thought to myself).   In fact, (as it became clear in the final paragraphs), this is actually an understatement … there are in fact even more!, if only a few more actual hotels as opposed to “rooms for hire”.

I was intrigued as to what was meant by the phrase “flat tax” that someone in Leninskiy rayon pays … but that wasn’t explained.

I was intrigued to see that those who buy a patent pay more than twice as much to the budget as those who operate under the simplified single tax regime – 33344 som on average compared to 15700 – which I presume is partly due to the fact that the fee for the patent for those who rent out apartments is based on the amount of rent charged rather than on the turnover.

It is clear that although there are more establishments in the Sverdlovskiy district,  it actually receives the smallest amount of tax revenue suggesting smaller and cheaper accommodation, whereas the Pervomaiskiy district brings in almost almost half of the tax revenue from the sector, the nine hotels contributing an average of almost USD25000 each to the budget.

It would have also been nice to have seen, amongst other things:

• which taxes are included – I am assuming they don’t include the payroll taxes, (income tax and social fund payments), but do include all the others …
• the total amount of tax raised to see what proportion of the local economy is accounted for by yher “hotel industry”;
• the total number of beds/rooms covered by these statistics;  A hotel is likely to have a larger number of rooms than a guest house offering “Bed and Breakfast” and a patent may simply cover a single apartment.

Whenever two or three hoteliers are gathered together, for example, there is one topic of conversation that is almost bound to crop up: Occupancy - the percentage of all “rental units”, (usually, that is, rooms) that are occupied or rented at a given time.

This “room occupancy” rate is one of several possible statistical measures – or performance indicators which can be used to compare hotels.  There are also, for example, sleeper occupancy, double occupancy, and income occupancy,  They all work on the basis of comparing actual performance to the potential.

But these are just some of the Statistics that hoteliers bandy around.  Amongst the others are the Average Daily Room Rate and the Revenue per available room.  

The reason there are so many is that every hotel is different and one feature may well distort the overall picture.  Each one tells us something different and interesting … giving a useful indicator of the success, or otherwise,  of a hotel as well as a means of comparison.

The basic room occupancy statistic is perhaps one of the easiest and most useful when it comes to comparing hotel performance:

Room Occupancy =     Number of rooms sold      x 100
Number of rooms available

However, technically it’s easier for a small hotel to obtain a high level of room occupancy than it is for a large hotel which has to fill more rooms for each percentage point.

It’s pretty meaningless, however, for a hostel which operates a number of dormitory rooms; where people share a room renting a bed for the night.  In this case Sleeper occupancy might be a more useful statistic.

Sleeper occupancy =   Actual sleepers   x 100
Possible sleepers

Likewise, a hotel which has many rooms designed for dual occupancy, (Double or Twins),  then if they are sold as Singles, the income derived will be less than if they are sold as if for two people.  So, this performance indicator helps indicate how efficient the hotel is in managing room requests for singles … .

Most hotel rooms are intended as Dual Occupancy – for two people … and priced accordingly, taking into account the additional capital cost of providing the room (which is usually bigger than a single room), including the additional cost of heating and lighting, cleaning expenses (time and materials), etc. which result from the larger room size; the additional laundry and breakfast, etc., for the second person.  Selling the rooms as a Single for one person to occupy can mean generating more income, but not necessarily mean that the hotel, (as a business), is getting the best value out of the space.  That is why the Double occupancy statistic can be revealing.

Double occupancy = Number of double rooms let as doubles x 100
Number of Double Rooms available

For the record: Some hotels here in Kyrgyzstan, especially in Issyk Kul, won’t sell a double occupancy room, (a Double or a Twin), as a single … one person can occupy the room as a single, but they pay the full rate as if if two were staying there.

They say that Cash is King, and cashflow is an important aspect of any business, but revenue can be affected by discounts and special offers, so Income occupancy, (which shows the relationship between the income actually earned and that which could have been earned if full occupation had existed at full rates), can be a useful indicator.

Income occupancy = Actual income earned x 100
Possible total income

When it comes to cash, a simple statistic is the Average Daily Rate, (ADR):

 Average Daily Rate=                 Room Income received                 
Number of rooms Rooms “sold” that day

Although this gives an indication of the “value” of the rooms … but it can be distorted by the occupancy level and the composition of different types of rooms available.  In theory an ADR of USD80 is more impressive than another of USD70 … but it could represent just one room being occupied where the guest has paid USD80 whereas on another day, ten rooms may have been occupied which each guest paying USD70 … which is obviously a better result.  Also, a Presidential Suite being occupied at USD1000 a night can seriously affect this statistic, even though it may be sold only a few nights each year.

Perhaps a more useful statistic is the Revenue per Available room, (RevPAR):

RevPAR =              Room income received            
Number of rooms available that day

which combines both income and occupancy level in a single statistic.  It is usually less than the ADR, but gives a better impression of the hotel’s performance.

When it comes to providing the authorities with statistics … they always ask us how many koika mest we have, (that is, how many people we can accommodate).  They also ask us how many guests we have accommodated each month, from each country, how many nights they stayed and how much they paid us.  Fortunately they don’t ask for a complete breakdown by individual guest, (that would be a nightmare to produce and process), but are happy to receive aggregate totals for each country once every three months.

So that’s another set of statistics to add to those first three: koika mest, the number of guests, guest nights and income.
Now, why are my thoughts focused at the moment on such statistics?

About a month ago I was involved in a meeting where we told about a plan to revise the tax system for the hotels, pensionats, resorts and sanatoria around Lake Issyk Kul.

The idea is to change the basis of taxation for those offering accommodation one based on income received to the number of koika mest.  This strikes me as illogical … albeit it should be easy to administer, (and possibly to cheat), but illogical.

Generally speaking, hotels do not provide accommodation by renting out koika mest, to guests, but rooms. A Twin room may have two koika mest, (beds), but may be occupied by just one person – single occupancy.

Worse … it may not be occupied at all.

Back in 1999, and again in 2010, for example, we suffered bad seasons when Issyk Kul received very few guests.  (In one case this was the result of a lorry carrying cyanide to the Kumtor Gold mine falling off a bridge into the River Barskoon, and spilling its cargo into the water … in the other it was due to a Revolution and the subsequent closure of the border with Kazakhstan).

I suppose that in the case of single occupancy, then the price can be adjusted to include the new tax element … but if the room is not let to a guest, then I wonder how the hotel is to find the money to pay the bill?

Having said that, it seems that the vast majority of owners and managers are in favour of the new system.

The report of the Kazakh plane crash on the BBC website

A few years ago, my Cable TV used to show a wide variety of programmes in different languages: Russian and Kyrgyz, of course, but also English, French, German, Turkish and Japanese … even Italian and Spanish from time to time.  The obviously did some market research and decided to  cut most of these from their basic package and opt for Russian language versions of channels like National Geographic and the Discovery Channel.

Now, I can receive only one English language channel: CNN … I could get others like the BBC channels if I chose a more expensive package … but I thought, “Why bother?”.

To be honest, I do miss some of the programmes that used to be on National Geographic channel, (although I can still watch them, they are now all in Russian which takes a lot more effort so I tend to channel hop through them).   In particular I used to enjoy Air Crash Investigation and Seconds from Disaster.

In a way, I felt a sense of guilt watching them; it was a bit a bit voyeuristic … and masochistic.  The sense of of guilt was tied up with getting some sort of satisfaction from what was a disaster, especially for those who lost their lives or their loved ones.  The programmes told the stories as the events unfolded and then went through the investigative process to see what lay behind each “accident”, to see where blame could be laid – but, much more importantly, so that lessons could be learned to try and avoid any repetition.

Well, it’s not been a good week for air travel … two stories in particular caught my attention:

1. Tourist plane crashes in Burma - on the website of the Guardian newspaper
2. Kazakhstan military plane crash kills 27 near Shymkent - on the BBC website … although it also was reported on a wide range of other sited.

To be honest, my first thought on reading about the incident in Burma was – “Tourists? … in Burma?”, sorry, that should be Myanmar.  Apparently so … although it has been ostracized for so long, (there used to be heated debates on the internet about whether it was “right” to go there and, by doing so, appearing to support the military regime), the country is supposed to be opening up to tourism and this is one aspect.  According to the report: “A flight packed with tourists crash-landed on a road in central Burma on Christmas Day, killing at least two people and injuring 11, officials said“.  The plane was carrying 71 people, including 48 foreign passengers, from the capital Mandalay to Heho in one of the provinces and the gateway to a popular tourist destination.

The airline described the incident as an “emergency landing” but it seems that the plane hit some electricity cables and crashed into some rice fields, killing a motorcycle rider on the ground as if came down.  The authorities say, however, that the pilot “mistook” the road for the runway due to bad weather – fog.

Bad weather appears to have played a role in the Kazakh crash as well.  A military plane carrying 27 people, (20 passengers and 7 crew), on a flight from the capital Astana to Shymkent which is not far from the borders with both Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.  One of the passengers was the Acting head of the Border Guards,  who has not long been in post.

The plane crashed 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Shymkent airport, marked with an A on this map of Kazakhstan : GOOGLE MAPS

The plane was descending in atrocious weather conditions – everyone in all the reports I have seen seem to agree on that fact – and disappeared from radar screens before plummeting into the ground some 20 kilometers from the airport … causing a loud explosion.

This week has also seen the anniversary of an incident in Osh last year, when a plane turned over and caught fire … fortunately, (and luckily), no-one died in that incident.

When I first came here and started working in tourism, I was able to say that the local airlines had a relatively good record …  at least as far as fixed wing aircraft were concerned, although there had been a number of incidents involving helicopters.

A couple of incidents, (the one in Osh last year and a flight to Iran that turned back to Bishkek but never made it to the airport), mean that I can’t say the same now.   There have also been a number of other “minor” incidents: the wing of one plane clipping the wing of another which was parked on the ground; the plane carrying President Putin back to Moscow from a summit, having fuel problems … and so on.

Most of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs in Western countries advise their nationals against taking local flights because it is not certain that safety procedures are followed adequately.  All Kyrgyz airlines have been banned from European air space for the same reason – although the operators claim that they have upgraded their systems and asked for the situation to be reviewed.

Because none of the Kyrgyz airlines fly to the States, the FAA, (Federal Aviation Authority), doesn’t assess them and says it carries no official data on the airlines – but I think it is probably fair to assume that they would not allow a Kyrgy airline to operate in America if it was banned from Europe.

To be fair, a lot of the planes are old – inherited from the local branch of Aeroflot after Independence … but some new planes have been bought, or leased, and the local airlines are trying to expand their network of routes.

Last year, the Kyrgyz government chose to ban some of the older planes from Kyrgyz airspace – causing a problem on some of the internal flights – because only those older planes could operate on some of the regional airfields.

Oddly enough, also during the week, I cam across a “quiz” about air travel which included questions like:

• Where should you sit on a plane to maximize your chances of surviving a crash?
• in the front
• in the middle
• in the back

The answer is, apparently, is at the back – according to some statistical research published in Popular Mechanics in 2007.

• When is a plane most likely to crash?
• when flying long distances over water
• during mid-air turbulence
• during takeoff and landing

The answer is, apparently, during take off and landing – the vast majority of plane crashes occur during take off, the initial climb to cruising altitude, the descent and approach to the runway and the landing.  Pilots even have a phrase which these use to describe these crucial moments: “Plus Three/Minus Eight” – the first three minutes after take off and the last 11 before landing.   In fact all of the incidents I have referred to above took place during take off or landing.

• What is the most common cause of death after the initial impact?
• fire and smoke
• trampling
• falling objects

The answer is, apparently, that most deaths after impact are caused by fire and smoke … the best thing to do if involved in an accident to leave the cabin as quickly and calmly as possible,

• How long is the “golden” time window after a crash when you are most likely to make it off the plane alive?
• 90 seconds after impact
• 3 minutes after impact
• 12 minutes after impact

The answer is, to maximize the chance of survival, passengers should exit the plane within 90 seconds after the crash … after this period, the risk of death from smoke and fire becomes much greater.

• How many rows should you be from an exit row to give yourself even odds of making it off of the plane after a crash?
• within one row
• within five rows
• within seven

 The answer it seems is within five rows … analysis of crash statistics shows that people in these seats have a 50-50 chance of exiting the plane in time in an emergency evacuation … “those seated further away face less appealing odds”.

• What’s the most important thing you can do to maximize your chances of surviving a crash?
• be prepared
• wear a kevlar vest
• help the people around you stay calm

The answer is, according to the FAA, the most important thing you can do to improve your odds of surviving a crash is to be aware and prepared for an accident to happen.   This includes knowing where the exits are and having a plan for rapid evacuation.  In other words … listen watch  and pay attention to those little talks that the stewards and stewardesses give at the start of the flight … and read the information card.  One of the things the show is the bodily position to adopt in the event of an emergency, in order to maximize your odds of survival:  Lean forward and press your head against the seat in front of you.   (This will help to counteract the force of rapid deceleration by pressing your head against the seat back in front of you. It also helps to wrap your hands around the back of your head to prevent your arms from flailing.)

As it happens, I found the quiz quite easy – that is, I got of the answers right … which wasn’t difficult because I had seen so many episodes of Air Crash Investigation … but I found particularly interesting was that just one in 1,200,000 flights ends in an accident … now that strikes me as pretty good odds.  What’s more, contrary to the commonly held belief, the vast majority of plane crashes – more than 90%, have at least one survivor and, more than 95% of people involved in an air crash actually survive.  Indeed, according to American statistics, the odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 11 million, whilst the odds of dying in a car crash are closer to 1 in 5,000.

Of course, I would like to know more about those statistics and how they got them … (they seem to be based on flights in America not Central Asia), and we shouldn’t let ourselves get “bogged down” in the figures and whether they are appropriate or not.   The most important thing, it seems to me, is that we shouldn’t let those odds make us feel too complacent … or else it will be like the paradox of the “unexpedcted hanging“.

We need to learn the underlying message: be aware of your circumstance and be prepared for any eventuality in order to maximize our chances of survival whether its a question of flying, driving, walking the city streets at night, conducting a business … or whatever.