The “seven days in May” that have just passed here in Bishkek, have also been marked by a lack of public awareness as the people seem to be getting on with the rest of their lives as events unfold mainly behind closed doors.

Although not exactly “hot and sultry”, in fact the first ten days of May are nearly always “dog days” … in that it is a “slow time”, events are dull and show an evident a lack of progress.  They include three public holidays, (the 1st – May Day, the 5th – Constitution Day and the 9th – Victory Day),  and at least one weekend although this year, because the 1st was a Saturday, they included two weekends.   As one of the holidays (Victory Day – May 9th), falls on a Sunday the holiday is switched to the following day, the Monday, so it’s like a week with five Sundays,  Because of this excess of “non working days”, it tends to be a quiet period when little gets done.

Things have been happening, however:

We received one good piece of news from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office.  They have revised their Travel Advice for Kyrgyzstan.  They “no longer advise against all but essential travel to Kyrgyzstan; there are currently no travel restrictions in place in Kyrgyzstan.” The Brits have always been more responsive to events on the ground than many other nations, even though a Minister or Deputy Minister, has to approve and “sign off” on the advice before it can be officially published.  Although the Americans usually review their travel warnings only once every six months, some other countries usually follow the British example, so I am hoping that the negative impact of such warnings will be minimized.

Despite this, we have received some cancellations which quoted the advice as one of contributory factors.

As it happens, we are still receiving enquiries and the occasional booking … so it’s not all bad news!

I took a phone call on Wednesday asking me to prepare a short speech about the need for marketing.  Yes, Wednesday was a public holiday, (Constitution Day), but at least some of the civil servants were at their desks working.

Constitution Day commemorates an important day in the history of the statehood of Kyrgyzstan, the adoption of the constitution, in 1993, following the collapse of the Soviet Union . However, the holiday is normally a low-key affair, with few special events held to commemorate the holiday.  The main “event” is that the President usually issues an address to the nation.  This year was no exception except, of course, that there is no President.  It’s also cynically noted that in the seventeen years since it’s initial adoption there have been eight different versions of the document – this year will almost certainly see a ninth.

Thursday saw a meeting at the Economics Ministry in order to discuss the budget for financing the development of Tourism.  The “budget meeting” was not like the budget meetings that I used to take part in as a trade union official back in Barnet.  There the council provided us with papers, pages and pages, which we went through with a fine tooth comb raising questions and commenting in detail on various aspects of the budget.  This time we had no papers to work on beforehand, so we couldn’t analyze the likely costs and benefits line by line.   Instead, it was rather like being given the chance to present a “wish list” of what measures we would like the government to spend money on.

Rumours and counter rumours continue to circulate … one that I didn’t mention last week, placed the blame for the revolutionary events on the former President, Askar Akaev, his family and supporters.   They, of course, deny it, although one of his his daughters, Bermet, has arrived back in the country on a visit, and there is talk of her entering political arena.  Now, there are reports from President Bakiev’s supporters that the planned protests in his support are nothing to do with them … apparently, it’s all the work of Akaev’s men.

The border with Kazakhstan is still technically closed … but, as I said last week, nobody seems to know why.  It is possible that Kazakhstan is worried about “importing” Kyrgyz revolution.  Or maybe they are trying to maintain pressure on the Interim Government, worried about protecting their own interests and investments here ion Kyrgyzstan, (for example: banks, construction companies, resorts on Issyk Kul …).  Maybe it is as simple as they still do not recognize the Interim Government.  They are also refusing to register any Kyrgyz citizens as temporary residents.  This is having a huge effect effect on trade.  Kyrgyzstan acts as a conduit of goods from China into the whole Central Asian region and two of the regions largest markets are in the country, near to the borders with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and account for a fantastic amount of cross border trade.  According to one report early in the week, exporters have seen a decline of between 20% and 70% in their business which is “worth billions” – that’s presumably in soms, and here they use the American concept of a billion, (1000 million), which is worth about, 22 million dollars.  It wasn’t clear, however, over what period that loss was incurred but, even so, it’s not a small sum.  I as pleased to say that foreign tourists have been allowed to cross the border, and discussions have been underway resulting in some cross-border traffic to take place and statements that the border will open again on 11th May. We are keeping our fingers crossed.

The new authorities are still pursuing people involved in the previous regime.  Only a few arrests have been made, so far, but about twenty former Ministers, etc. have been questioned by the police.  As a result of arrest warrants issued here for some prominent characters, (notably Bakiev’s son, Maxim), Interpol have apparently issued “red notices” so we could see an extradition attempt.  That could make for an “interesting” situation.  Luschenko, President of Byelorussia, has once again, made it clear that he is not going to allow the extradition of Bakiev, himself, but despite that the interim government have an extradition request.  Are they looking for a dispute with Byelorussia … because one looks likely if they persist with this approach.  Some other members of the “family” have apparently turned up in Europe and, so it is claimed, some have received help from within both the interim government and the police force.  It seems that others are still here in the country somewhere, and the one that was apparently “kidnapped” last week has been in touch with his “supporters”.  All this could also make for an “interesting” situation in the future.

The search for the “Bakiev” money continues.  About 20 “luxury” cars belonging to Maxim have been located  … I wonder why he needed so many, and the Americans have been asked to help trace bank transactions. Apparently, the interim government have seized some “safe deposit boxes” belonging to certain members of the family and their entourage … holding something like USD20million … in one case $8-9 million, (they don’t seem to be certain exactly how much), “belonging” to one former minister. At the moment the money is held in a special account in the National Bank, (I hope they are getting interest on it!), and it will need a court decision to determine what eventually happens to it, (and, I presume, any interest that accrues).   .

There seems to be an opinion that the events in Maevka on the 17th were not, in fact, spontaneous, and the police are pursing investigations to try and locate the people responsible for “planning” the event.   According to the police, about 1000 of the squatters who seized land in the village of Maevka in the events of April 19th, when five people were killed.  It seems as if that operation passed off peacefully, which is probably why it got so little, (if any), coverage in the press abroad, unlike the tragic and gruesome events that Monday evening.   That hasn’t stopped about 5000 people asking for land to be allocated to them … we’ll see what the response authorities will be.

As if all this uncertainty wasn’t enough, the scientists have decided to warn us, (once again), this week that climate change and earthquakes are likely to create problems for Kyrgyzstan in the future, probably in the near future, possibly in the very near future.  They claim that we statistically overdue for a “strong” earthquake somewhere in the region … and although, being a former Statistics teacher, I tend to be wary of such use of figures, I think they make a good point that we need to prepare for one and put in place some proper “crisis management” structures and procedures.  Climate change is, apparently, likely to have more long lasting effects.  They predict a subsequent increase in the number and frequency of landslides and avalanches. We have already seen dramatic retreats in the glaciers and that is expected to accelerate, leading to desertification and water shortages, that will, in turn, lead to failures in the harvest, food shortages, and other economic problems which may well result in further civil disturbances.

I wish I had experienced a quiet time this week … but that was not to be.  I have been trying to catch up with the backlog of work which inevitably got put onto “the back burner” during the eventful days of May.  I have made little dent in the mounting pile of paperwork, however, as new and pressing matters arise.

There was the invitation to participate, (all expenses paid), in a Silk Road forum in Shiraz, Iran.  As usual, however, everything was left to the last moment and I am not sure I can go.  It’s a pity, because I would have liked to see Iran.

We’ve had, belatedly, the regular six monthly visit by the “pest control” agency who for some reason weren’t able to come last month – I wonder why that was.  Anyway, they inspected the grounds and laid traps and poison to deal with any rats that might wander into the yard … although it is some years since I actually saw any here in the city center, there is a saying that “you are never more than twenty feet away from a rat”.   (Like most statistics, of course, it’s not true.  Statistics always raise more questions than they answer.  The population figures for rats, when divided by the land surface area of a country may well suggest a population density that mans one rat every ten yards or so, but despite the fact that rats may be quite numerous, they are not evenly distributed …).  As I say, it’s a long time since I have seen one in Bishkek … maybe our three cats help to keep them away.

Thursday afternoon saw the Krasnaya Gvozdika (Red Carnation) Gala Concert.  It is the culminating event of a competition for war veterans and labour veterans.  Some 247 people from 15 collectives, choirs, folklore ensembles etc. participated over two days during the latter half of April, and the Gala Concert, where prizes are awarded, is usually held near to Victory Day, (Dehn Pobeda – May 9th).  The choir that organizes the event used to be based in the music school next door and we have been involved with them for about seven years of the eleven that the festival has been in existence.  I normally enjoy going to the concert because it is usually  a fairly joyous occasion, despite the fact that it commemorates a war – albeit the ending of a war.  As always, the concert began with a performance of the traditional song Krasnaya Gvozdika, and ended with the traditional song, Dehn Pobeda.  The highlight this year, apart from the fact that it was held at all given the circumstances, was that the Mayor came along and presented the prizes and certificates.  The prizes are really quite modest – from 300 som (about USD6-7) up to 5000 som (about USD120).  It’s clear that the participants aren’t drawn by the value of the prizes … they are there because they enjoy it, it is clearly evident that they derive great enjoyment about participating and performing.  They dress up in national costumes and some even don their old uniforms, whilst others just wear the “Sunday best” which usually makes for a very colourful event.  This year, however, the concert was shorter and more subdued than usual, possibly as a result of the recent events.  Another reason could well be that many of the participants are really getting on a bit and were clearly having difficulty moving … it was markedly noticeable when I compare it to last year’s concert.  The oldest person this year was ninety four and had difficulty walking, even with his walking stick he needed a person either side to guide and help him … and, (I am ashamed to admit), the cynic in me rather unkindly wondered if the weight of all those medals on his chest couldn’t have been part of the problem.

If 1995 and 2000 were the years I spent packing all my earthly possessions into boxes, (in order to come to Kyrgyzstan, and then later having decided to stay here), then 2010 looks like being the year of “remont”.  (Remont is the Russian word for “repairs” or reconstruction, and it’s also used for redecoration.)  The remont I am thinking of is nothing to do, thank goodness, with the revolution.  As I have said on other occasions, we escaped any marauding and looting.  In the hotels we have a rolling programme of “repairs”.  There is a standard in the industry is that every room should receive a “makeover” once a year … although we don’t always succeed to meet this, it is an on-going process.  In addition, this year also started with the decoration of my apartment.  It’s been ten years since I moved in and it was beginning to look quite shabby, so it was about time that I did something.  It’s taken something like six months … because Tony’s apartment, next door, needed attention and his timescale was limited, so the workmen went from my apartment to his.  They are back with me now and the end is finally in sight, although the pipework in the building is quite old and seems to have sprung a few minor leaks … I just hope we don’t have to rip everything out once more in order to repair the pipes.  Then there was the roof that fell in on a family of friends, which  we thought would take about a week to repair.  As always, however, things rarely ever seem to go according to plan, and it’s going to be about a month in all.  Then, after years of discussing the possibility, we erected a fence around the front of the building … it was “finished” in March, although they seem to have forgotten to fit the locks … or at least the locks that they did fit don’t work!  Despite the fact that we couldn’t actually lock the gates, however, the fence was probably a contributing factor to the fact that we escaped serious problems during the revolution.  One of the problems with decorating is that once you start, you find that you have to continue … so now, I hope finally for this year, we are turning our attention to the hall and stairwell.  The outside of the building also needs attention, but that is going to have to wait.

If the situation here in Kyrgyzstan hasn’t been enough to keep me busy, then I have had enough other things to keep me awake at night watching the news, (sipping a Gin and Tonic), such as: the volatile situations in Thailand, Greece and the election in the UK.

I don’t normally comment on politics, (I say “I don’t do politics”).   Even though I have a Residence Permit, I have no vote in Kyrgyzstan … that’s not a problem … I understand.  Being an ex-pat, I don’t have a vote in Britain, either.  (I once registered for a postal vote, but the ballot paper arrived on the day of the election itself, and had to be returned to be in the hands of the returning officer by the close of voting at eleven o’clock.  There was no way I could do it … it seemed like a waste of time, and taxpayer’s money, so I gave up on that and never registered again.  I suppose that I could register to vote by proxy, but I have never really looked into it.

People here are often surprised when I point out that under the British democratic system, a Prime Minister, such as Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair, (most of them don’t seem to even know the name Gordon Brown), may head a party which gained only something like 35% of the votes cast in the election … which means that the vast majority of the population voted for someone else.   … and yet they can push through very partisan programmes.  Despite having, what is effectively, a “minority government”, (virtually every British government has been a minority government in this respect), we still accept the result and manage to govern ourselves without either military coups or “people’s revolutions”.  It wouldn’t happen here, it couldn’t happen here, people tell me.  I fear that they are right.

However, let’s hope that the examples of the “peaceful transfer of power” that we’ve seen in Nigeria and will, hopefully, see in the UK will provide food for thought, if not a model to be emulated, for us here in Central Asia, … in the same way that Britain is looking to learn the lessons about “coalition government” from abroad … .

We also received a lot of emails during the week.  Unfortunately, as I said, some have contained cancellations, but on the other hand there have also been some fresh enquiries and some new bookings, so it’s not all bad news.  I have also received some links to news stories about Kyrgyzstan from around the world.  I need to thank everyone for those … it’s true that I may have already seen some of them, but not all of them by a long shot … and it’s always useful to see what people are writing.

Actually, we were thinking of starting a new website … a sort of portal with links to articles about Kyrgyzstan.  We actually started thinking about it some time ago …  but like most projects it has been put on hold for the time being.  The idea is that there are still large numbers of people who have no idea about Kyrgyzstan, where it is and what is going on here … a portal with links might just help to spread the “gospel” (good news) about Kyrgyzstan a bit more … Of course, we are hoping it will help bring us clients … but, as I said, the plan has been postponed until some time in the future.

Well, this week’s events may not make for an exciting plot for an Oscar nominated film … but it’s been a busy week, all the same.

The world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux.  In the past the world’s climate has changed due to natural causes, but more recently the term “climate change” has been used to refer to the changes which have been identified since the early 1990′s and can be attributed to the impact of human activities.

“Global Warming” refers to the documented increase of the earth’s surface since the middle of the twentieth century, based upon worldwide temperature records which have been kept since the 1880s.  It is estimated that the average surface temperature has risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius in that time and projections of various climate models suggest that this increasing trend will continue – with the global temperature rising up to another six degrees warmer – with implications of the changing climate patterns and with major implications on the impact this will have on human lifestyles and activity.

The situation is not “clear cut”, however, and there are skeptics who cast doubt on some of the predictions based on the fact that the world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux; that it is difficult to identify and ascertain with any certainty the effects of individual elements within the complex weather systems and the difficulty in predicting their possible future interaction variety as shown by the variety of different results produced by different models.

There is, however, evidence to suggest that something is happening and that human activities are contributing to some extent to the changes being observed.

Evidence

Some of the indicators of Climate Change and Global Warming are:

• Records of weather statistics show that global temperatures have risen: by over 0.7C in the last 300 years and at least 0.5C of this warming occurred during the 20th century.  Most of this change occurred during the periods from 1910 to 1940 and from 1976 onwards
• Four out of five of the warmest years ever recorded were in the 1990′s
• The 1990′s was the warmest decade of the last millennium with 1998 being the warmest year globally since records began in 1861, and 1999 was the warmest year on record in the UK
• January-June 2002 was the warmest start to a year in the northern hemisphere
• The total number of cold days (where the average temperature was under 0C) has fallen from between 15 and 20 per year prior to the twentieth century, to around 10 per year in recent years
• 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years of daily measurements – 26 days above 20C
• Sea levels are rising globally, (by between 0.1 and 0.2 meters over the last 100 years)
• The arctic sea ice is thinning
• Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since the late 1960′s by around 10%
• Mountain glaciers in non polar regions have retreated significantly during the 20th century
• There is evidence of more precipitation in large parts of the World – an increase of 0.5-1% per decade in many mid and high level areas of the northern hemisphere and there has been a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events
• In Asia and Africa there has been an increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the last few decades

There are observable changes in the composition of the atmosphere.  About 99% of the earth’s atmosphere comprises of just two gases: nitrogen and oxygen, the remaining one per cent is made up of a number of trace elements which are thought to have a major effect on weather patterns, such as carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Water vapour and Halocarbons.  All of these have seen increases in the last century.

Carbon dioxide can be produced by burning fossil fuels and deforestation reduces the plant stock which helps to reduce the balance between production and elimination of the gas in the atmosphere.  (The capital city of Bishkek has a population of approximately one million people with over 200,000 vehicles.   Many of these are old, in poor working condition and fuel inefficient, contributing to the fact that Bishkek is thought to produce half of the country’s Carbon Dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. )

Burning fossil fuels also contributes to the increase of Nitrous Oxide, as does the increased use of Nitrogen based fertilizers and the operation of sewerage plants.  Methane is produced by bacteria and an increase in livestock farming and growing rice has led to an increase in Methane levels in the atmosphere.  Perhaps the best known source of Halocarbons are the CFC gases uses in aerosols and refrigeration units.  Water vapour is perhaps the odd-man-out in that human activity seems to have little impact on levels in the atmosphere … the amount of water vapour present in the atmosphere depends more on the temperature of the air than anything else, and as the atmosphere warms up, so it can hold more water vapour.

Impact

Although a small country, Kyrgyzstan is prone to mudflows, landslides and floods, and certain regions also suffer droughts and water shortages.  Although these are not new phenomena, people also notice a range of climatic changes that they claim they have never experienced before, such intense storms causing considerable damage to property and crops.  In the past, folklore has variously linked these to rocket launches from Baikonur, Chinese Atomic tests at Lop Nur, operations of the high altitude Kumtor Gold Mine, fallout from burning oil wells during the Gulf War and, of course, to Global Warming.

Amongst the potential impacts of Climate Change on both the natural environment and on human society, (lifestyles and activities), are significant.  These include:

Rises in sea levels across the world – including an increase in flooding of many lowland areas … with implications for many small island systems and land use and management – especially in coastal regions, (which contain thirteen of the fifteen largest cities in the world).  Being a landlocked country, it might be considered that Kyrgyzstan would not be affected by such a change, but although there would be no direct impact on the country, there could/would be secondary, indirect, implications for the country.

Reduction of the polar ice-caps, (contributing to the rises in sea level), and mountain glaciers.  Although a 1994 guide book to Kyrgyzstan says that many of the glaciers were advancing, more recent evidence indicates that they are, actually, in the process of retreating and a joint report from the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) says that during the twentieth century the area under glaciers in the Tien Shan range decreased by 25-35%.  Another report, (from the Technical University of Dresden, issued in 2005), commenting on the Northern Tien Shan where the Kyrgyz and Kazakh borders meet, says that the glacier melt in the region corresponds with temperature changes with only a “little decrease” occurring in the period 1960-1975, but increasing significantly from 1975 onwards when the glaciated area decreased by 35-40 percent.  The situation is spread uniformly throughout the country.  For example glaciers on the Southern slopes of mountain ranges are disappearing at a greater rate than those on other slopes.  The retreat of the glaciers will almost certainly have a number of serious effects on the environment, agriculture and economy as the glaciers of the Tien Shan provide the key source of water for rivers and mountain streams which in turn feed irrigation systems and reservoirs used for hydro-electricity production, (not just in Kyrgyzstan but across the whole region of Central Asia), and water supply for the urban centres such as Bishkek.   The year 2008, in particular saw a dramatic fall in the water levels at the strategic Toktogul Reservoir leading to “electricity rationing” being introduced.

The growth of crops depends heavily on suitable weather conditions and seasonal variations … the temperature, amounts and distribution of sunshine and precipitation.  The traditional range of vegetation and crops grown in a region may have to change to meet new circumstances.  There may be an increased need for water resources for irrigation for crops.  New weather patterns may also result in changing distributions of agricultural pests such as locusts and aphids – both a potential problem in Kyrgyzstan.

A change in the distribution of insects might also lead to health issues, such as changes in the incidence and distribution of insect borne diseases such as malaria and Encephalitis.  In 2008, for example, Kyrgyzstan saw a rise in the incidence of malaria which was hitherto a rare occurrence, especially in the Northern parts of the country.  There may be other health implications as people have to adapt to more extreme temperatures and different rainfall patterns, as droughts and flooding cause damage to infrastructure such as water and sewerage systems, and so on.

The impacts of climate change won’t affect just humans – they will have implications on the natural wildlife as well, as habitats change and unusual species migrate to new areas.  Migratory birds, many of which pass through Kyrgyzstan, may find that their traditional migratory patters are no longer appropriate.  Plants, (trees, shrubs, etc.) will also have to adapt to meet the new environmental conditions.  It is suggested that one of the possible causes leading to increased mudslides and landslides in Kyrgyzstan could well be deforestation.

There is a trend towards the development of renewable forms of energy, some of which offer strong potential for Kyrgyzstan, such as: Wind farms, solar power, Geothermal heat pumps and Hydro electric power.  For example, there have been proposals to establish a Wind farm near Balykchi, at least one mining company is working on developing Geothermal power systems and there are already sixteen hydroelectric power stations range from small stations to the 1200 megawatt Toktogul Power Station at the head of the Toktogul Reservoir.  The Toktogul dam on the Naryn River and associated power complex were constructed in 1973 – the 215m high dam flooded part of the river valley creating a massive reservoir, which takes an hour to bypass as the Bishkek-Osh road skirts its shore.  Planned as one of a series of dams across the mighty river – the complete cascade was never finished but the plans still exist and there are proposals to complete the cascade on the upper part of the river and the Kambarata.  There are also a number of projects to produce small, local – community based, hydro-electric stations.

The dependence on hydroelectric power has other implications for Kyrgyzstan, however, as an “upstream country”, at the head of the Central Asian Water Tower.  Water from the Toktogul Reservoir is important not just for the production of electrical energy, but also for irrigation further downstream – with implications for the agriculture and economies of “downstream countries”.  In 2008-9 the water level in the reservoir fell perilously close to the minimum levels for sustainability and this resulted in rolling power cuts (outages) throughout the country.

The Kyoto Protocol, or the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is an international treaty on climate change. It is actually an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries which ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.  The objective is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.  Kyrgyzstan is one of the 157 countries that have ratified the protocol – they have acceded to it (one of the stages of ratification). : http://unfccc.int

The risk is two fold – both in the short term, (in the immediate period shortly after the predictions are made), and also the long term, (possibly well into the future, long after the author of the prophecies is dead, when people are able to look back and review if the prediction has been fulfilled … or not – in which case they can simply look ridiculous when compared to the actual realities of history).

The more dramatic, or imaginative, the description – the greater is the risk of ridicule and scorn, in both the short and the long term.

The Case of Global Warming.
The term “Global Warming” is used to refer to an increase in the average temperature of the world’s atmosphere and oceans over the course of recent history.

Scientists have discovered that over the centuries the temperature of the earth’s oceans has varied considerably, and has resulted in dramatic changes in the earth’s climate.

We have known for a long time about the various “ice ages” that have occurred, when the polar ice-caps and mountain glaciers have advanced to cover vast areas of the earth’s surface.  Apparently, for most of the earth’s long history there has been virtually no ice cover, but at others considerable sheets of ice have covered much of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres.  There are many reasons why these cold periods occur including the mechanics of plate tectonics, changes in the earth’s orbit and, more recently, especially the effects of a rise in CO2 and what are called the “Greenhouse” grasses.

The earth’s atmosphere has a feature called the “ozone layer” – and in the 1970’s it was discovered that a “hole” was developing in it over the Antarctic.  The scientists argued that the effect of this was that more of the sun’s rays were able to penetrate into, and “warm up”, the lower strata of the atmosphere and the earth’s oceans – as well as increasing exposure of all living things to the potentially harmful effects of dangerous solar radiation.

The discovery of the “hole” led to speculation about both, the causes of and the likely effects resulting from, the phenomenon.  Of course, special attention was given to how it might impact on human life and society.  These speculations varied but centered on predictions of “global warming” and “climate changes” including the possible onset of a new “ice-age”.  They were met with a range of reactions – from being embraced completely with demands for “changes in lifestyle” to outright derision and scorn.

Later measurements indicated that the hole was in fact growing – and the debate widened, fuelled by articles in “glossy” magazines, “serious” newspapers and Hollywood blockbusters.

So, … What has all this to do with Kyrgyz Tourism? Actually, quite a lot …

An increase in tourists?
In 2006 group of economists in the United States examined the likely effects of global warming on different tourist destinations around the world.  Their conclusions implied that certain of the places which, at the moment, are favourite destinations for tourists would experience a dramatic change in their climate – and that this would have an equally dramatic effect on their tourism potential.  Their model suggested that many destinations might experience a drop in the level of tourism by as much as almost 60%.  Other areas, on the other hand would experience an increase in the numbers of tourists.  Kyrgyzstan fell into this second group – and the economists predicted a growth of 89% by the year 2100 in the number of tourist arrivals over what could be expected if global warming did not happen.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
The year 2100 may seem a long way off into the future – but it is unlikely that this will be an immediate, “overnight” effect, but more gradual, developing over a period of time.  Will the Kyrgyz Republic be ready to take advantage of this potential growth?

The suggested increase in tourist numbers of 89% was an increase not on current levels of tourists – but on what could be expected if global warming was not to happen.  The number of tourists visiting Kyrgyzstan is growing … and, it is hoped, will continue to do so.  Even if the increase was based on current levels – then this could mean as much as an extra 890000 visitors to Issyk Kul.  Do we have the facilities?, the available beds?, the staff? … Even to meet a more modest increase in the number of tourists we need to make plans and ensure that the necessary infrastructure is in place – and new investments are encouraged.

One press report about the economists’ research was headlined: “Book your Mongolian Vacation Now” … The model suggested an increase of 122% in the number of tourists for Mongolia.  Mongolia is often identified as one of the traditional competitors for Kyrgyzstan in the “destination market” for Western tourists.  Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia both have spectacular landscapes and mountains; an ecologically clean natural environment with varied wildlife; a nomadic culture; historical connections with the likes of Genghis Khan and so forth.  Mongolia also has scale … and, of course, the name – well known and easily recognizable!  To attract the tourists

However …

As the English poet, John Donne, said, “No man is island entire of itself, every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.”  Events are not isolated but connected to each other by a series of Cause and Effect.

It may well be that a vast number of additional tourists might flock to our mountainsides rather than to some more traditional destinations … if they can get here.  On the other hand, other events may occur to prevent this from happening.

Many nations around the world are already considering what measures they can implement to prevent the worst effects of the hole in the ozone layer, global warming and climate change.  Like Kyrgyzstan, over 160 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and are seeking more “green”, environmentally friendly, alternative energy sources … and how to reduce their “carbon footprint” and the amount of greenhouse gasses they emit … and so forth.

One of the measures available to governments is to introduce new regulations to regulate activities which are thought to influence global warming.  Regulation, however, is often seen as an element of “government control”, an infringement or limitation on the freedom of the individual, and there is often a tendency for people to resist such moves unless there is an overwhelming justification for them.  Another approach which is often adopted is to use the power of persuasion – so that people exercise their freedom of choice and decide for themselves to take appropriate steps to achieve the aim.  One instrument employed by governments to achieve this aim is through taxation.  (Consider, for example, the case of tobacco … where an increase in excise taxes may be justified either to increase revenue to the budget – or to reduce smoking ad the harmful effects on health).

One such measure adopted in Great Britain is a tax (Air Passenger Duty) on air-travel which was doubled at the beginning of 2007.  The effect is likely to be substantial – especially if it is increased still further.  One report in the media was headlined: “Only ‘elite’ will fly long-haul in 30 years!” and another indicated that 55% of the money paid by the passenger for a ticket went in different taxes and cited one case (London to Amsterdam) where taxes amounted to almost 98% of the ticket price. (!)

Faced with higher prices the tourist will be forced into making a series of decisions – not just where to go for their holiday, but how to get there.  “To fly, or not to fly?”, that will be the question.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
Because Kyrgyzstan is so far from many of the world’s main tourist markets this could have serious implications.  It may be that Kyrgyzstan needs to consider other, greener, possibilities.  Perhaps, more attention needs to be paid to other forms of transport – the railway, or coach tours.  Travels along the Silk Road would be an obvious Tour Product which could be promoted to take advantage of this sort of extended “journey” rather than short “vacation” tours.

One aspect of such extended trips is that, because they involve a long time away from home, there is a limited number of people who can take advantage of them.  Typically this includes the student who is taking a gap-year either before or after leaving university.  Another category of traveller who might have the time available would be the retired.

Another implication of this possible trend is that, perhaps, the Kyrgyz Republic should concentrate more of its efforts in marketing nearer to home.  A large proportion of the world’s population lives not far from our borders.  This includes, not only our traditional clients, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia, but also China and India – two “outbound” markets which are emerging as important targets for destinations from all over the world in search of potential visitors.  Perhaps the Kyrgyz Republic, too, should consider these as potential markets, which are ripe for development.

To develop a new market is not easy.  It needs research into what the clientele will be looking for in a destination, (do they want adventure or recreation, what sort of cuisine, entertainment, etc.) and then planning to provide facilities and itineraries to meet those requirements.  Planning and arranging methods of access to Kyrgyzstan from their countries, and simplifying procedures so that genuine tourists can benefit from an encounter with our mountains, landscapes, nature, history, people and culture.

Ecotourism:
There is already a trend towards developing and marketing “environmentally friendly” products. How many tour products are advertised with the label “ecotourism”?  One of the trends which we are likely to meet is an increase in the number of “green” tourists – environmentally aware and looking for products which demonstrate and justify their ecotourism qualifications.

Plans for hotels and tourist attractions already have to meet certain environment standards – to show that their impact on the environment and local communities is minimized – or neutral.

In several countries there are already regulations and procedures being implemented regarding safety and security.  Foreign tour operators who organize tours beyond their own borders have to make “due diligence” checks and inspections with regard to safety and security arrangements provided in the destination to which they send clients.  As “global warming” and “climate change” become a more important issue in the world – we can probably expect governments to implement similar measures with regard to the environmental impact of the itineraries which they offer.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
Tour firms already have many clients who seek “ecotourism” opportunities, who comment upon or enquire about the impact of their visit on the environment and local community.  It will probably be necessary for them to prepare themselves for further scrutiny by tourists and foreign partners.  It won’t, however, stop there.  Kyrgyz tour companies, themselves, will probably have to consider such questions when considering the service providers they use when delivering a tour.  In other words, it is likely to affect everyone involved in tourism.   How many hotels, for example, have undertaken an environmental audit?

Will we be prepared?

Now is the time to consider such questions.  The longer we wait – the more we have to lose.

Written for the journal “Tourism in Kyrgyzstan: Problems, Practice, Perspectives”.