Who can forget those dramatic photographs and video clips of the Tsunami?!

According to Japanese authorities, close to 16,000 people died and 6,000 people were injured, while more than half a million were made homeless. The World Bank assessed damage at up to US$235 billion, with experts predicting it would take years for the region to recover.

The international community has learned a lot of lessons as a result of what happened in Japan, perhaps more so than as a result of other disasters simply because of the fact Japan is more often than not a donor, but on this occasion was the recipient of aid; an interesting reversal of roles.

Logistics and coordination were vital to the success of the aid efforts; getting help directly to those most in need.  Another important issue has been the treatment of individuals affected by the crisis, especially the very young and the very old.

Of course, as the proverb puts it, “prevention is better than cure”, but it is hard to see how an earthquake on that scale, (and the subsequent Tsanami) could have been prevented, but forewarning and preparation to deal with such an event can be put into place.  It can be difficult, if not impossible, to predict all the potential subsequent events and their implications.  Despite the apparent shortcomings assumptions and in the design of the power station, much thought had been given over to this before the earthquake that caused the calamity … but, as always, it is a case of noting after the event, “if only we had …”.

In recent years we seem to have seen a large number of natural disasters: earthquakes; tidal waves; volcanic eruptions; disease and hunger.  That’s not to mention man made calamities such as war, terrorism and more controversial themes such as the effects of global warming.

I notice that, at ITB, (the International Tourism Fair currently being held in Berlin), Global Monitoring, a new warning system which would facilitate authorities reacting to critical situations, (even as they are developing), was proudly announced by the German Travel Association.

I have often argued that part of our job is to predict potential problems and then see if we can find ways to avoid them or, if the worst comes to the worst, to deal with the situation.  It’s been a “hobbyhorse” of mine for the last ten or twelve years.

Some of my staff smile whenever I mention fire precautions; It’s not that they take the matter lightly, but you can almost see the thought crossing their minds that, “Ian is back on his hobbyhorse”.  I remember on one occasion pulling everyone up short by pointing out that I was as concerned about the safety issues of evacuation from the hotel in the case of an earthquake as I was about a fire.

It’s not a topic that I has always been dear to my heart.  I came to it quite late in life.  In fact I can trace the origins of my interest in the topic to a particular meeting.

I remember the meeting very well for several reasons, one of which is that it marked my debut into public affairs in Tourism here in Kyrgyzstan.  It also marked the last major contribution by the German Consultant Max Haberstroh, who was also the Presidential Adviser on Tourism, before his contract in Kyrgyzstan came to an end.

It was held in a conference room on the top floor of the White House and was chaired by the newly appointed Prime Minister, Nikolai Tanaev.  Max had chosen to deliver a paper on Crisis Management which, at that time, was a fairly topical issue with a series of papers emerging from the World Tourism Organization, (WTO).  It was a very thought provoking presentation, but Tanaev and the other officials seemed to have other things on their minds as they quickly passed on to what they considered to be the main topic on the agenda: what contridution tourism made to the state budget – the tax take.

The Prime Minister launched into an attack on tour companies, asking each one directly how many tourists they served and what taxes they paid, concluding with: “Pay your taxes and sleep easily”.  I was the last to be asked and I decided to turn the tables and complain about that he was asking me confidential business data in an open meeting before mu competitors, that he could obtain the information he wanted from official sources, (the State Statistics Committee and the Tax Inspectorate), and complain about the hotel tax which a couple of months previously had been increased by a factor of fifty-fold – Yes, fifty-fold!

Although Max had managed to get me thinking, the tax issue became the focus of the meeting and the issue of Crisis Management was more or less forgotten, at least for the time being.   I am pleased to say that there are signs that this may be in the process of changing:

For example, it is predicted that we, here in Kyrgyzstan, are due to experience a major earthquake sometime in the next few years – although I am not sure on what this is based; I thought earthquake prediction was a difficult, (if not impossible), task.

Still it is an encouraging sign.  The Emergency services have been showing signs of preparing for potential disaster.  At the moment, the press reports seem to concentrate on this predictive element; drawing maps to show areas of the country susceptible to potential disaster, be it earthquakes or civil strife.  Of course we are not likely to experience either volcanic eruptions, (there are no volcanoes in Kyrgyzstan), or tidal wakes, (being so far from the ocean), although we could well be affected by the “fallout”.

 Some time ago, I wrote a postcard about “What happens if something goes wrong”  and the need for travel insurance.  It was not the first time I have written a postcard about the need for travel insurance and I have written others which have included examples where people have encountered problems, for example, when they lose passports, and so on.

Sometimes I am asked by a client, “What happens if something goes wrong?” … and this is the sort of reply that I send them:

Of course, we hope that nothing will go wrong … but it is best to be prepared.

A similar survey earlier in the year came to similar conclusions and revealed that those who admitted to not taking out insurance gave three main reasons: “A third (34%) said they would rather take the risk than take out adequate cover, (although it didn’t give the reasons why they said this … perhaps because it was conducted on behalf of an insurance company and “cost” was the underlying issue); “another third (33%) thought their European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) would cover their travel needs and a further quarter of people said taking out travel insurance ‘didn’t occur to them’.”

That last one was quite worrying.  Some people think that I am a pessimist because I am always asking “what happens if something goes wrong?”  I don’t think I am a pessimist, I prefer to think of myself as a realist.  Things rarely go according to plan and, as Robert Burns put it, “The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley”!

The report

A new report landed on my desk at the end of last week: The World Risk Report 2011, by a team of researchers from the United Nations University.

It came to my attention in a newsletter that I receive several times a week which carried the headline: Malta – the safest place on Earth?  Now, I don’t normally go looking for things to do with Malta, but I have a friend who lives there and the headline did its job and intrigued me, (as it was supposed to do), enough, that is, to persuade me to click on the link.   Having read the short article I clicked on another link to get a copy of the report.   I also sent a copy of the link to my friend in Malta because I thought he might be interested to see it.

My first thought having read the report, about 70 pages, was that perhaps it was given the wrong name – a misleading name.

It opens with reference to natural disasters which were experienced in the early part of 2011: the earthquake in New Zealand, flooding in Australia, the earthquake and Tsunami in Japan and a surprising statement that “the frequency and intensity of such extreme events have increased alarmingly in recent years.”  I’m not sure that is actually true.  (I have seen, for example, some discussion that suggests that rather than experiencing apocalyptic disasters we are simply much more aware of the disasters that do happen thanks to the immediate and instantaneous access to information available not just from the traditional print media, but also television, on-line media and even social networks; much of which is far more immediate and graphic than was available in the past.)  To be fair, neither are the authors sure … for they go on to ask “did the disaster risk also increase?”

Perhaps it’s just me, but the name, and that of the Index which the authors have created – the World Risk Index, suggest that it is about risk, but in fact it goes beyond that.   As the article that originally caught my attention said, “The report’s focal point is “Governance and Civil Society”.  The report is not just about exposure to the risk of natural hazards and the potential natural disasters … but how well equipped communities, (nation states), are to deal with such situations when they do arise as well.

As they say in the opening paragraph of the chapter on Conclusions and Perspectives, (note: NOT “recommendations” – although they do make some “recommendations and requests”): “Extreme natural events do not necessarily turn into disasters.  The WorldRiskReport shows that the disaster risk is always made up of two components: exposure to natural hazards and climate change, and social vulnerability. Thus, the report makes it clear that disasters are not solely due to meteorological or geological phenomena, but are also caused by social structures and processes within a society. The Netherlands, Greece and Hungary for example, are relatively high exposed to extreme natural events, but as a result of their social, economic and environmental situation, they are comparatively well-ranked in the list of the WorldRiskReport.”

It’s not that the authors didn’t explain themselves, but because the way that the results were almost bound to be quoted.  Take, for example, that headline.  Is Malta really the safest place on Earth?

Even the authors don’t say that … they say that on the basis of their analysis, Qatar is(!) … or at least Qatar is the country on Earth with the least exposure to the Risk of being unable to cope with a natural disaster, should one occur, which is not particular likely as the country is not particular exposed to the sort of natural disasters that they were considering whilst having a good capacity to be able to cope with the event and also to adapt to new circumstances.

For the record: Malta came in second place, behind Qatar.

So what were they considering?  Their analysis focused on four aspects:

1. Exposure to natural hazard of climatic stimulus – the sort of events they considered were Earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts and rises in sea level.  The first four are natural hazards that have occurred and resulted most human casualties and material damage in the period 1970 to 2005, and the rise in sea level is seen as a considerable potential threat in the near future.
2. The Susceptibility of the country which was taken to be the factors which were likely to be affected by an event: public infrastructure, housing conditions, nutrition levels, poverty levels, and the economic capacity and income distribution amongst the population.
3. The ability of the country to Cope with such an event occurring, minimizing any negative impacts that it might have. So they looked at the Government and Authorities, the existence of any early warning systems, the availability and level of medical services, social networks, (and by that I don’t think they meant just the likes of Facebook and Twitter – although they have been important factors in a number of “natural disasters”), and  the necessary materials, and
4. The adaptability of the community in order that would enable it to change in order to address the issues they are likely to face in order to deal with such an event and its aftermath, as indicated by education and research, Gender equality, environmental status and systems for ecological protection, the presence of strategies that would facilitate adaptation and investments

Each of these factors were examined in order to obtain a useful numerical statistic which could then be combined to provide an overall value for each aspect, which could then, in turn, be combined to provide an index.

I am not going to worry about the mathematical or statistical validity of the methodology they used, (how they went about actually constructing the Index), because I wanted to stress something else: How the research is used.

And … I was struck by that headline.

In the worst case scenario, I suppose, the report will simply be noted, filed, give copy to some reporters in the media and then sit on some bookshelves gathering dust.   Hopefully, however, that won’t happen and instead people will take it and consider the issues it raises

Of course, some people may want to question the validity of the report, the methodology used and its conclusions.  That’s understandable … and even reasonable.   After all, one of my favourite sayings is that “Statistics raise more questions than they answer”.  That is true in this case as much as in any other.  Who has conducted the research, what information they used and how they collected it, what they actually did with the raw data in their analysis, how they present their results and the conclusions they draw from their work – these are all important questions.

On the other hand, even if we disagree with aspects the report, with some or all of its conclusions, but … it still seems to me that it raises many important questions and should be used to inform decision makers and strategic planners so that they can assess needs in order to prepare to meet the challenges that a natural disaster may bring about.

The authors are well aware of the opportunities offered by, and the limitations of, their work, the report is littered throughout with caveats, and, (as you might expect from a University), they publish a lot of supporting materials along with the report so anyone and everyone can become acquainted with their research in greater detail … but I still think that they could, (should?), have come up with a title that better described what it was they were attempting to address.  They admit that the current survey is a snapshot in time and is limited in many other respects.  The data they have used needs to be constantly updated and the techniques they have refined.

But … I was struck by that headline.

Now, I must be honest.  The first thing I did when I downloaded the report was to look for Kyrgyzstan.  Just like the headline writers, I was looking for a brief encapsulation of certain salient facts.  For them, they needed a hook on which to hang the story whilst for me it was a case of “can this report tell me how things will affect me?”

As it happens, Kyrgyzstan only appears twice in the report itself – in two of the tables.  In the first we are informed that the overall index for the country is 8.48% which puts it in 54th place out of the 173 countries which are considered.

To put that figure into some form of context, Vanuatu, the country with the highest “risk” scores 32% and at the other end of the scale, Qatar scores 0.02%.  The United Kingdom came in 138th place with a sore of 3.61%, the United States in 133rd place with a score of 3.72%, New Zealand ion 128th place with a score of 4.28 and Japan in 35th place with a score of 11.13%

Now, to be honest that 8.48% struck me as quite low, especially if we consider the individual factors itemized in the second table, which are considerably higher.

In terms of “exposure”, for example, Kyrgyzstan scored only 17.09%.  I was a bit surprised at that, especially when I considered that the country is located in the heart of a seismically active zone and has experienced a number of quite sizeable earthquakes even in my time here.  On the other hand, I suppose it is unlikely, given that we are a landlocked country in the middle of the continent many thousands of miles away from the coast, that we are likely to directly affected by a rise in sea level.  (I am not so sure, however, how well we are going to be insulated from knock-on or indirect affects if large areas of the world’s coastlines are going to be inundated.)   I suppose it is also true that floods here are fairly localized, and although we do occasionally, albeit rarely, experience extreme storm conditions, we are unlikely to meet hurricanes/typhoons or tornadoes.  Then again, the weather conditions that we do experience can bring about landslides and avalanches which can be devastating in their own right – but the team didn’t consider these particular hazards.  Although we haven’t recently experienced a serious drought, the experience of the ‘golod’, (hunger of famine), in the 1920’s and 30’s warns us that such a thing is possible … and given the various predictions of what global warming might mean for agriculture, health and so on, not to mention the possible loss of water from the disappearing mountain glaciers, then I think you will understand my surprise that this figure wasn’t higher.

In fact, in a way, I thought the choice was of natural hazards that they considered was a little arbitrary and seemed to be missing a few … apart from avalanches and landslides, (which we do experience here in Kyrgyzstan, and I have already mentioned), where were the volcanoes?, (which we don’t have in Kyrgyzstan).  What about outbreaks of disease?

Still, the authors say that they want to refine the models they’ve and they have to start somewhere.

The other scores were indeed higher; in some cases, much higher.  In terms of “vulnerability”, and “susceptibility”, for example, Kyrgyzstan ran in with scores of 49.63% 28.29%.   When it came to the lack of capacity for “coping” with the effects of natural disasters then Kyrgyzstan scored a whopping 76.16% and the lack of “adaptive capacities” at 44.43

Here in Kyrgyzstan we do have a Ministry of Emergency Situations, (part of legacy of the Soviet Union), which is the front line agency when it comes to handling such incidents as a natural disaster.  There has also been some attention given in recent times to the need for crisis management and planning and the need to prepare for potential disasters, with France offering both a model and support.  Transport in the country can be difficult, (a feature of the mountainous terrain), and medical services may be underfunded and lacking somewhat when compared to their Western counterparts, but progress is being made.  There are plans for training the population of what to do in the even of an earthquake.  So, I can see that, in fact, Kyrgyzstan is making progress and over the course of time its performance on some of these other indexes should shoe signs of improvement.

I appreciate that all those figures are confusing, but in the report and the supporting materials, the authors do explain how they obtained and combined these figures and why there are such divergences.  However, although the research raises questions, (and I think that is perfectly natural), it also raises many important issues and they are probably more important.

To be fair, the article that originally attracted my attention did give a reasonable account of the report’s findings,  albeit a short account – just over 150 words and about half of that being Malta’s reaction.  The report itself was summarized by three short paragraphs, the first outlining that it had issued and the last giving the link where readers could find out more and the middle paragraph: “The report’s focal topic is “governance and civil society”“.  But, oh!, that headline! … what a travesty!

At least, I suppose, the headline did its job in that it attracted my attention, drew me to the article, it got me to read the article and to want to know more.  It sent me off looking for more information and got me thinking.

It failed on another level, however … it did nothing to encourage me to consider Malta as a destination!

The convenience of living over the office is, in some ways, a definite advantage … but in others it is definitely not to be recommended.  In the winter, for example, it is extremely pleasant to be able to roll into the office without having had to brave the elements, but on the other hand I feel that I am always on call.  Sometimes, for example, if I have an meeting in the late afternoon or early evening, then I always face the dilemma on returning home about whether to go into the office on the way, or not.  There is always something to do and there is always the great temptation to fill half and hour usefully doing this or that.

Being constantly available, “on call”, is definitely a disadvantage because you can be sure that the telephone will ring or someone will drop in.  It is quite common for tourists, who “just happen to be passing”, to drop in at all hours clutching their copy of Lonely Planet or the Oddyssey Guide to Kyrgyzstan, open at the page which gives our address – late in the evening or on a Sunday.  Last Friday we got a phone call at about half-past four from a tourist who wanted to call in, and who asked “How do I get get to your office?”.  She had the address, (and, obviously the telephone number because she was calling us), but she wanted to know which “marshrutka“, miinibus, she needed to take from the sixth microdistrict, (suburb). That gave me a slight problem because I don’t often use the minibuses in Bishkek.  The city is not exactly small, but virtually everywhere in the center where we are based is within easy walking distance – I can get almost anywhere in about half an hour or forty minutes and, usually, there are many taxis if I am short of time.  Anyway, we gave her directions and she said she would be with us in about half-an-hour.

At the time I thought that was quite optimistic, but as I always have lots of routine tasks to do on Friday evening, I wasn’t too worried if she was going to be a little late – which she was, but she did find us, or rather me, because it was already well after office hours and everyone else had gone home.

So I answered her queries and once business was out of the way the inevitable conversation, or question and answer session,  began.  She asked where I was from, how long had I lived here and how on earth I ended up in Central Asia – all the usual questions.  I asked here where she was from, how long she had been travelling, where had she been and what her plans were.

She was Swiss, and had been travelling for over a year already and was on her way back home, over land.  Most recently she had been in Mongolia and China and had crossed the border at Irkeshtam and spent a day in Osh before travelling up to Bishkek in order to arrange visas.  She had wanted to travel through Kazakhstan to the Caspian and then over to Azerbaijan and eventually in Turkey, but her plans had been thrown into disarray and she was having to rearrange everything – but, before we get to that …

Hearing that she had spent some time in Osh, I took the opportunity to ask for her impressions.   It was quiet, she said, and peaceful.  There were some signs of the destruction the had occurred during the summer but there also signs of reconstruction.  The Bazaar was now working and she had taken the opportunity to buy a few things.  I pointed out that this was indeed good news because I had heard quite recently that it still hadn’t opened.  (In fact the photos on the Eurasia.org website  - http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62352 – still give a very discouraging impression).  Of course, she said, she didn’t know what it was like in “normal” times, and the no market hall, but there were stalls in the outside and people were buying food and other things.

She offered the usual praise for the scenery – the “spectacular” landscape, and also spoke very highly of the attitude of the Kyrgyz – everyone had been very hospitable – really friendly, courteous and helpful.  When there was a delay at the border, for example, the border guards even given her tea! … at no charge!!  This was a high point of her travels so far and compared favourably with what she had experienced so far in Asia.  That was really good to hear and I made a mental note to make sure I passed the comment on to the authorities whenever the opportunity arose … they like to hear good news … don’t we all?.

So turning to her future plans, why did she have to rearrange her itinerary.  She told me something that took me aback.  As she is travelling for so long, then she is having to get visas en-route – never a good idea, there are often many problems finding embassies, and the possibility that you might get turned down and stranded.  That’s why the general advice is always to try and get them before you set out if at all possible.  Being on the road for so long, however, meant that she couldn’t that.  Apparently, when she enquired about obtaining a visa for Kazakhstan at the Kazakh consulate, she was told “no problem” – but when she turned up to actually apply, the consul looked at her and most apologetically said: “I’m sorry, I can’t give you one.”  According to him, it seems that for some reason the Kazakhs have decided that no visas will be issued for the month.

That surprised me … it surprised her, and threw all her planning into confusion.  As it happened, however, some of her travelling companions were planning to travel from Kyrgyzstan to Tajikistan and then head off back towards Europe.  It wasn’t exactly what she had in mind … but seemed to be an attractive and viable alternative.  There are problems with the route, however, especially the perennial problem of visas.  Instead of two visas, she now needs to apply for four different ones – and nearly all the countries concerned have a reputation for being difficult to get visas – even for the Swiss.

Even though the Swiss don’t need a letter of invitation for some of the countries, the consuls concerned looked for one, which involved not only additional expense but also required more time.   … Then there was the matter of making the applications … the consulates all open at different times and to make matters worse, in the coming weeks, there are holidays when the embassies will be closed.  It looks as if she may be “trapped in Bishkek” for a couple of weeks for the bureaucracy to work itself out.  Even then, there is no guarantee that she will get all of the visas … and she only needs one application to be rejected and she has to start planning all over again.  This sounded to me to be an ideal example of how we need a “Silk Road Visa”.

There have been discussions for about a decade now for some sort of visa reform to make it easier to travel the Silk Road.  The World Tourism Organization, (now called the United Nations World Tourism Organization), have long proposed that there could be a single visa covering all the countries along the Silk Road, but it’s never come to anything.  Some of the countries along the way have been sympathetic to the idea, but others resolutely opposed.

The were other problems that I could foresee.  Travelling to Tajikistan overland, for example, means using the Kyzyl Art pass – down to Osh and Sary Tash again, then head further South into the mountains, and taking the remote and rugged Pamir Highway … in November and December!  Technically, as I understand it, it’s possible … but I am not sure that I would want to do it.  It will be a cold and difficult journey at that time of the year.

More to the point, however, I asked about she planned to cross from Tajikistan into Uzbekistan.  Technically the border is closed at the moment.  The discussion then ranged far and wide about the difficulties in crossing borders.  “I’m sorry, but I don’t think you will be given tea everywhere.”  In Europe, it’s so easy – especially since the advent of the European Community and the Schengen zone.

In answer to the question “is this sort of thing common here?”, I responded that: “It’s one of the delights of working in Central Asia.  You can never be certain about what is going to happen.  The situation keeps changing, from year to year, month to month and even day to day.  You can’t take anything for granted.”

She took it well, in her stride.  She “rolled with it”.  After a year on the road, she said, she had become used to setbacks of one sort or another and having to rethink her plans.

I wished her luck as she ventured out into the Bishkek night – I hope she doesn’t need it.

All in all, it was a pleasant exchange and well worth the unplanned extension to the working day.

I know that it is important to plan ahead and it is refreshing to see people thinking on a scale greater than “today … and perhaps tomorrow” and there seems to be something about five year plans here.  I suppose it is a hangover from the Soviet period when Five Year Plans were de rigeur.

It seems odd, however, that a new strategy is being promulgated now … just a month before the elections which will result in a new government, who will decide their own priorities, strategy and programme.  The election seems to have created a hiatus which has everyone looking over the shoulders, anxious about what the future may hold for them.  We may spend a lot of time and effort working on a new strategy only to have the rug pulled out from underneath us if a newly elected government decides that it has other priorities and wants to travel down a different road.

To be fair, the business of government shouldn’t come to a standstill just because there are elections.  There is still work to be done and new Ministers are often appointed during an election campaign even though they may be in office for only a few weeks – or even days.  A strategy is an administrative document for implementing policy and at the moment there is a policy which may or may not be revised by the new parliament once it is in place.

There is also a reason why the new document is needed in that the existing strategy was laid down in 2005 and expires at the end of the year.  It’s time to look afresh at tourism in Kyrgyzstan and decide where we are, where we want to be in five years time and how we can get there.

It seems to me that a strategy is the wrong place to start.  I remember that when I was teaching computing, a major part of the work involved students planning practical projects involving the use of Information Technology to solve a problem.  We began by defining the problem, saying what it was the project aimed to achieve and then delved into an analysis of the current situation, and different ways of getting from “:where we were” to “where we wanted to be”.  Based on this analysis, the student chose a preferred method of solution for the problem, and designed a system to implement this solution, before going on to actually do so.  Once there was a system developed, then it was tried and tested.  Finally, there would be a review process with suggestions as to further developments and improvements.  It’s an approach which is commonly used in all spheres of life and one that I try to adopt whenever embarking on a new project.  Of course, nothing in life is simple – and we often have to vary the approach a little in everyday life, but it offers a good model for problem solving.  However, this approach seems to have been overlooked in this case.

It seems to me that we should probably start by defining the issues … and then develop a “concept” which would define “Where do we want to be?”,  “What we want to achieve”.  A “strategy” could then be devised which would outline how we would try to get there.  This in turn would be followed by a plan of activities – a “roadmap”, to use the current jargon, which would outline the steps necessary to achieve this overall aim.  To be fair, as it happens, the document that we were sent tries to do all three.

My first thought when I received the document was: “What happened to the consultation?”.  Here in Kyrgyzstan, any “normative acts” – draft laws and so forth, are supposed to be subject to public consultation for a period of sixty days before they can be considered by the relevant authority for adoption.  We were asked for our comments, as soon as possible,  but within a week.  It appears, I discovered later, that there had been some “consultation” in the form of a working group that had met to consider the draft document.  For some reason KATO, (the Kyrgyz Association of Tour Operators), hadn’t been there and so it came as a big surprise to us.  As a result, there were several things in the document which we found relatively unpleasant and unwelcome.

More to the point, however, I question the whole thrust of the document.

As it happens, (and as is often the case), much of the initial analysis contained in the document, (about “where we are”), is quite good.  It is what follows that is a little more controversial.  I am not sure that it realistically addresses the initial question of “where do we want to be?”  Unfortunately, in my opinion, there are some some serious shortcomings.  Some important topics are either overlooked altogether or are given only a cursory treatment.

Crisis Management: The country has been through difficult times, and we in the tourism sector have faced a huge crisis this year … and been found ill prepared to deal with the situation.  There are a number of huge potential crisis situations which we can predict and anticipate and so make plans for addressing them:

• a major earthquake in the region – we are in a seismically active zone and occasionally experience quakes – the last “big one”, 7.3 on the “Richter scale”, (or whatever scale they use for measuring earthquakes these days), was in 1992 in the Suusamyr region.  Fortunately, the area is sparsely populated and there were few relatively casualties – although there were 54 deaths.  There have been others – lots of them – of varying degree of severity, and the Tashkent earthquake of 1966 (7.5 on the Richter scale – destroying 78000 homes and leaving 300,000 people homeless), showed what can happen when a built up urban area;
• further political uncertainty – in view of what has happened this year, no more needs to be said about this at the moment;
• potential terrorist acts – likewise, apart from noting that there has been a lot of speculation about how the current uncertainty in the country and in the region could create an environment in which terrorism could flourish;
• the effects on the world economy and the effects this might have on tourism (e.g. transportation to/from Kyrgyzstan) of:
  • Climate Change and Global Warming – this did get a mention in the document but I don’t think anyone has really addressed what this might mean – from melting of the glaciers to changes in crop cycles – and hence food production, or the cost of transport, which brings me to the next worrying scenario posited by futurologists;
  • “Peak Oil” – the depletion and rapid decline in oil reserves … oil is a vital commodity in the global economy literally “oiling the wheels” on which prosperity depends.  More directly for Kyrgyzstan’s tourism industry which relies on far flung markets for its visitors, transportation accounts for huge proportion of our consumption of oil;
  • Pandemics – who can forget the effects of SARS, Bird Flu, H1N1 and so on, on the tourism industry;
  • Harvest failures – whether it be a result of global warming, pestilence or some other catastrophic influence, a failure of harvests on a global scale would have major implications for Kyrgyzstan as a whole, and for those of working in tourism in particular.

Enumerating these potential “doomsday” scenarios, I feel like Cressida prophesying doom and destruction for her native city of Troy … but, then again, she had a point.  I hope that I am not proved right as she was – but I do believe that we have to think about the issues and prepare for the eventuality.

First of all, I think that we need to set up procedures and mechanisms for dealing with these “crises” if and when they occur … publicity and marketing as well as the practical issues (e.g. coordination and relief) which will arise from them.

More to the point I think that we need to consider how we would meet each crisis – they are different and would require different responses – in terms of what direction we want to take Kyrgyz Tourism.  I think that there is a lot to be said for the argument that we need to plan for the effects of a down turn in the global economy where potential clients don’t have the necessary disposable income to spend large sums on traveling the globe.  Also, we need to consider how potential clients would travel the vast distances to arrive in Kyrgyzstan.  In these cases, perhaps we need to look to cultivate more local markets – and for markets where these questions are not so crucial.

Increased regulations: The strategy includes suggestions for a number of new regulations and strengthening those that already exist.  Although I can see some logic behind these proposals, I am concerned.  Please don’t misunderstand me, it is not that I am opposed to regulation.  Indeed I think that there is a vital need for some form of regulation – Health and Safety, Food Safety, Fire Precautions, Construction standards (e.g. for earthquake protection), and so forth.  However, I am concerned about what is regulated – and how.

In particular, I note that there are already ample provisions on the statute book for the protection of consumers rights, environmental protection and so forth.  The problem, it seems to me, to be a question of the implementation of the existing rules and regulations rather than one of introducing new ones and systems to monitor and supervise them.

There is no mention in the document of certain types forms of regulatory device.

• the possible use “Migratory” or “Landing” Cards at border crossing points as a means of collecting accurate and reliable statistics about the number of visitors to the country and the purpose of their visits – a perennial problem here.  In addition, the use of such cards could help to simplify and/or eliminate the need for some visas and for police registration (OVIR).
• “Border Zone” permits.  Ever since the days of the Soviet Union, the borders of the country have been under strict control.  Whereas many kilometers of the border spread through remote and sparsely populated regions, it is not clear why particular control of who can enter these zones is necessary.
• “Alpine Zone” permits.  These used to exist but were withdrawn unilaterally by the government almost ten years ago.  To me, this made sense as they used to apply to areas which represented no risk to the average tourist.  Indeed, as something like 94% of the country is technically “mountainous” it could be argued that if such permits existed then they were necessary to travel almost anywhere in the country.  On the other hand, there are areas where it is necessary to control access – for environmental or safety reasons.  For example, to some of the peaks – such as Khan Tengri or Peak Lenin.  Access to many mountains in the world are subject to obtaining permission and it seems to me that some similar system could be implemented here.  If not a system of “permits”, as such, then perhaps a system that required people going into the mountains to register their intended routes so that, for example, in the event of a problem the rescue services would have an idea of how many people they were looking for, who, and where.

The initial analysis mentioned the possibility for the development of “Self Regulatory Associations”.  The idea would be for the self-regulation of sectors of the industry by voluntary associations.  For example, in Switzerland hotels are classified and categorized by the Hotels Association.   Here in Kyrgyzstan such a system has already been developed and is in the process of being implemented.  The state has a role as does the industry.  This strikes me as a good idea and it is something that I would want to support.  However, beyond this initial mention, I don’t see anything else.  Maybe I am just not looking hard enough.    I am not sure I follow the logic of introducing Criminal liability for “administrative offences”.

Marketing – this is a subject dear to my heart.  I see nothing new in the document about … attendance at fairs, printing materials, development of a “brand” … but nothing about “Market Research” … i.e. to help us determine the most effective use of our limited resources in determining what are we going to market and to whom?

There is little, for example, about Kyrgyz embassies abroad working with the press in the countries where they are based.

Domestic Tourism – this is one thing that I am pleased to see in the document.  The development of domestic tourism, which has provided a valuable cushion, especially for Issyk Kul, this year.  I don’t think that domestic tourism is a panacea for the tourism industry.  It relies on the local population having sufficient disposable income to spend on “luxury items” such as travel and tourism, which for the majority is probably not true at the moment.  It also means that money is simply circulating within the country rather than the country earning valuable foreign currency from abroad.  However, a thriving tourism industry should rely on a strong domestic demand as much as developing foreign markets.  It’s something we have learned this year.  There are other benefits as well.  It is not only good for local people to visit other parts of their own country for rest and relaxation, it is also good for social reasons, helping to raise awareness of their surroundings, history, culture and environment.  It also means that they will better understand what a tourist is looking for when visiting a new destination.  A waiter, for example, who has never eaten as a client in a restaurant has an incomplete idea of what level of service a diner expects when they sit at his table as his client.  Also, it is better to keep money spent on domestic tourism circulating within the country than to have it spent on tourism abroad or on imports.

What is more, I foresee the possibility that it will be much more difficult to attract foreign tourists to Kyrgyzstan in the future if and when we come to face some of the “doomsday” scenarios that I mentioned earlier.

The document contains some references to “regional development” and road construction.  Although I welcome this – we shouldn’t rely on rest and relaxation, “beach tourism” on the shores of Issyk Kul as the sole form of tourism offered by the country.  We need to try and develop new markets and to spread the benefits of tourism throughout the country.  I see, however, little that will help the more remote (isolated) areas such as Batken, Talas and the Chatkal area of Djalal Abad oblast in the intermediate future.  (Probably little can be done in the short term, but we should be thinking about the mid to long term development of these areas.)

One tour operator says that he thinks that they are captives to plans which they made months ago, when everything was quiet and peaceful.  Either they have non-refundable tickets or they were on a trip along the Great Silk Road and so, basically, had to cross Kyrgyzstan in order to get from China to Uzbekistan, (or vice versa).  However I don’t agree:  I don’t think that a non-refundable ticket would stop me cancelling a trip if I thought that it was the most sensible option – and even if the airline wouldn’t refund the money for the ticket, I would hope that my travel insurance would cover the cost, and there are other ways to get between China and Uzbekistan, there are flights for example, or routes that go via Kazakhstan.   What’s more we are still getting enquiries and bookings from people who want to come to Kyrgyzstan, from countries as far afield as America, France, Switzerland, Indonesia and Brazil.

That’s raised a fine moral point with which I have had to wrestle during the week … should we accept the business?  Is it safe to bring them here?  Indeed, during the week I had two difficult conversations with tour operators, both of which concerned the question  whether or not to operate tours in Kyrgyzstan under the circumstances.

The first was with one of our partners who organize tours, like we do, throughout Central Asia.  He had decided to cancel all tours which involved travelling through the South of Kyrgyzstan, to the Ferghana Valley and those which involved crossing the border over the Irkeshtam Pass to or from China, or over the Kyzyl Art Pass to or from Tajikistan.  He was particularly worried about whether or not we should cancel all tours where the itinerary included Kyrgyzstan.  I said that I thought this wasn’t necessary.  At least, not yet.  Hopefully, it won’t be necessary.

Although the situation in the South was particularly bad, the situation in the rest of the country was still moderately quiet.  Things were tense … but quiet. The situation in the North of the country, (in particular in Bishkek, Issyk Kul and Naryn regions), was such that there was no reason, at the moment, to cancel tours, although we would, obviously, have to keep the situation under review and if it were to deteriorate in anyway throughout the rest of the country, then we would have to reconsider …  but at the moment, we were not doing so.

On the other hand, we had to recognize that clients might well be anxious in the light of the news that was emerging from out of the country and that they might well chose to cancel their tours, themselves.  As a company we were trying to keep clients informed of developments and answer any questions that they posed.  For example, we might write something like:

It would depend on the particular circumstances, the time, the itinerary and how the situation develops, but at the moment,  although I wouldn’t want to “talk them into” continuing with the tour – neither, on the other hand, would I say “Don’t come”.

The second conversation was more surprising.  It took the form of a phone call from a tour operator who wanted to know our attitude about taking a group of tourists down to the Ferghana Valley at the present time.

To be honest, I wasn’t sure what lay behind the question.  Was it, for example, a genuine question because there a group that was planning to cross over the Kyzyl Art pass from Tajikistan and then head out again straight away over the Irkeshtam Pass into China.  (If that was so, it would mean that they wouldn’t have to approach Osh … and so, possibly, someone thought it should still be possible to do this without having to cancel or rearrange the whole trip. Even so, however, the guides and drivers would probably have to come from Osh … and it is not clear what the situation would be in the remote rural districts down in that region.)

I can think of some other possible scenarios which might have led to the question … but as I don’t know for certain, any supposition would be just guesswork.

Anyway, I gave my response which was a little more polite than the first thought that went through my mind: “Are you crazy?” … or even the second: “No way, José”.

I was thanked for my comments, and then asked if I would mind writing it down as a summary, which made me think that it was probably intended, not for the operator themselves, but for a third party … who was asking for an opinion from someone “on the ground” … but, as I said, that’s a supposition on my part.

Anyway, this is what I wrote:

In both cases, I suppose that the question was really: “to go or not to go?” … and the different answers raise an interesting issue: when, and under what conditions, do we decide that it is “unsafe, unprofessional and irresponsible” to bring tourists to Kyrgyzstan at all?

One of the most distressing, recurring nightmares that I suffer is not one where tourists are caught up in civil disorder … despite having experienced two revolutions and numerous “little local difficulties” of this sort; it’s not having to deal with a road traffic accident or a natural disaster like an earthquake.  All of these represent and present real problems, but are easier to cope with in many respects than my bête noir: problems with the documentation.

What is so frustrating about this issue is that many “problems with documentation” should never happen, they are foreseeable and can be avoided by checking and rechecking … and checking again.  Still, they do happen, very easily – a slip of the pen, or a simple oversight of a small detail – and they can be so difficult to resolve.

It could be that someone has simply misread a figure wrong – or swapped two figures over … we had that problem on one occasion with one our registration documents … it took us ages to get it sorted out.  We’ve also faced that problem over bank transfers … the transfer has been arranged, but the money doesn’t arrive in the account … you wait for five working days and then ask for an enquiry, or search, to be made … on one occasion it took three attempts to transfer money … on each occasion a bank clerk filling in the paperwork, and on each occasion the money either being returned or credited to the wrong account.

In the case of official forms, such as social security returns, the penalties for making such a simple mistake can be quite serious – 25% of ALL the social fund contributions made by the company that year … which could well be millions of soms.  This means that our accountants are especially careful in checking and double checking every box on every form …

On one occasion we had a vehicle stopped by the traffic police in a routine documentation check, and they wanted to impound the vehicle … because the two sides of the document giving that particular driver the authority to drive it were completed in different pens, (one black and one blue).  All the details were complete and correct – the stamps were all there and in the right place … but for some reason the Notary who completed the form swapped pens when they turned it over – and nobody spotted the fact until a bright eyed traffic policeman on a routine document check.

Some problems have considerable implications.  Take the example of a flight details … Flights are crucial to any itinerary – they are fixed points around which everything else in the itinerary revolves.  It is really frustrating when the airline decides to move a flight up or back an hour or two, so that arrangements have to be amended … or even when they cancel a flight and you arrive at the airport to find that there is no plane … that you are stranded and have an extra day, or two, until the next available flight and you need to rearrange you subsequent itinerary.  Usually there is a good reason for the delay or cancellation, but not always.  Worse, sometimes the client has misread and told us the wrong flight time … and on one occasion, even, the wrong date. Usually we are able to spot the mistake when planning the itinerary, or when we are making arrangements or going through the process of checking and double checking everything … but , unfortunately, it sometimes happens that the mistake gets through without being spotted … not often, but it is not unheard of, either.

Perhaps more problematical are problems over visas.  One group had duly got their visas only to discover that the agent had made a mistake with one of them and got the wrong entry date for one of the visas … not only did they not match the itinerary, they didn’t overlap, so there was one day when they didn’t have a visa for any Central Asian country.  It took a certain amount of hard work, canceling one set of visas and applying for new ones.

Kyrgyz visas give start and end dates for a visa … Chinese visas, on the other hand are valid for use within three months from the date of issue and valid for ninety days once the traveler has entered the country.  To make matters worse, they often have to apply in their home country.  This is a problem for many travelers who are traveling the Silk Road and maybe on the road, away from home, for more than three months.  We’ve had three cases where the traveler was refused entry because their visa had already expired.

That’s nothing, however, to the problems incurred with lost passports.  One tourist was quite distraught and not so happy with the fact that we were so calm about the situation, especially as we were giving her the bad news about what it meant – the complications and delays, the fact that she wouldn’t be able to travel until she was able to get a temporary travel document from her consul … in Moscow!.  My reply was to ask her how often she had lost her passport – “Just the once,” she said, “I am not in the habit of losing my passport, you know.”  “Of course not,” I said, “but, unfortunately, you are not the first of our clients to lose their passport … and we from know from those unfortunate experiences what sort of complications you are likely to encounter and the procedures we have to go through as a result.”  I know that wasn’t a particularly sympathetic response, but it was accurate.  As it happens, her passport was found for her and she was able to leave, just one day late … but still in time to get to work when she got home, albeit straight of the plane and a little tired.

To be frank, she was lucky … it could have taken up to a week … or even more.

One pair of Brits, not really our clients, but they dropped into the office to ask for advice, had had their passports stolen in Uzbekistan and were traveling on photocopies.  How they managed to cross the border, not once, but several times, on the basis of photocopies I have no idea … but they did … or, at least, that is until they got to Kazakhstan.  The border guards looked at the photocopies and asked, “Is this a joke?” and sent them packing back to Kyrgyzstan and Bishkek.  That’s how they ended up in my office … asked what could they do next.  It didn’t help that it was the height of the season and all the flights out of Bishkek were fully booked … for several weeks … with the help of the local honorary consul and a rather expensive and convoluted route they managed to make it home, albeit a little late for work.

So, what happens if you do experience a problem like one of these?  What advice can I as someonoe working in the “travel industry” offer?:  …

• First of all … avoid the problem if at all problem:
  • Check, double check … and then check again, … all the details of your itinerary … dates, times, terminals and stations, addresses, telephone numbers … anything and everything;
  • Make copies of all you vital documents: passports, visas, OVIR registration stamps (wherever they are necessary), itinerary, reservations, tickets, credit cards, prescriptions, emergency contact numbers, etc., etc., etc.  Anything and everything.  Make several copies: pack one in your bag, (in each bag), and carry one with you … oh, yes, and leave at least one at home with someone you can contact in case of an emergency;
  • Keep you wits about you at all times … remember that you are in a strange country, you may not know the language, customs may be different, and any difficulties are likely to be more problematical than at home, so try to avoid “tricky” situations ;
• If you do have a problem then
  • seek help as soon as possible … that might well mean informing your consul and getting advice about local conditions …; and
  • Be calm, and flexible … face it, your plans are going to have to change … and even if it means that you are not going to be able to fulfill your heart’s desire, you have to make the best out of a bad situation – so look upon it as an opportunity rather than a problem …

I automatically switched into “crisis mode”.

Stage one, handle the immediate situation:  First of all, assess the situation, (what has happened?, is anyone hurt?, if so, who?, and how badly?, what help do they need?, and so on), … then “make safe” … followed by take action and summon assistance where necessary.

From what I was being told, the weather was bad and there was a hole in the roof through which the rain was coming in.  The place was a mess with lots of rubble littering the room where it had fallen.  At that moment just one room was affected, but it wasn’t clear if the ceilings in the other rooms were safe.  Two girls, (one of them only four years old), were in the room at the time and the ceiling had fallen on them, but everyone else was OK, although upset.

The first piece of advice I could offer was to check the girls for signs of injury and concussion, and call an ambulance … fortunately neither of them was seriously hurt apart from suffering from the shock of the event … there was no signs of serious injury beyond a swelling and what was going to be an ugly bruise, there was no sign of concussion.

The room could obviously not be used … and with the bad weather, it was important to move everyone so that there was no chance of them being hurt, either as a result of the cold and wet from the bad weather, or more of the ceiling falling in.  That’s when I offered to take in some of the family.  The rest could try their relatives.

In the morning we could see about the extent of the damage and how to effect repairs.

I called one of our staff, telling him what had happened and asking him to be ready to come with me for an inspection in the morning, to advise me what could be done, what needed to be done to make the house safe once more.

To be honest, I expected my guests to stay for maybe one or two nights whilst the roof was patched up, but that was almost three weeks ago … and they are still with me.   The repairs seem to have involved far more work than I had anticipated.  I suppose that I should have known better … if “the course of true love never runs smooth”, then that seems to equally true when it comes to construction work and repairs.  I always used to joke that builders always started a job with enthusiasm, having quoted one price and given a deadline for the completion of the work, only to start shaking their heads, muttering under their breaths and tut-tutting shortly after starting work.  They call the client over and say, “We have a problem,” … the bit I really like, (notice the sarcasm there), is the: “if only we’d known that …”.  Straight away it is obvious that what was supposed to be a simple job has become more difficult, the price has gone up and the deadline has been extended.

It appears that the problem with the roof wasn’t a localized one … instead of “patching it up”, the roof needed to be replaced … and so did the ceiling inside the building, so that the house was fit for the family to live in once more.  “If they do the ceiling, then they really need to do the walls as well … which probably means new windows … and then there is the need to redecorate … and …” … but the rest is another story.

That’s how I seem to have ended up with an instant, adopted family of four teenagers.

The situation has made for some interesting moments.

I admit, for example, that I am getting tired of “youth TV”, MTV and loud music, not to mention, what seems to me to be constant bickering and instant arguments over the slightest irritation.

On the other hand, I quite enjoy seeing them off to school and checking their homework.  The Maths is relatively easy, and English doesn’t present me with too big a problem … but although I have always been fond of Geography as a subject and felt I was stumped when it came to the depth of the world’s deepest lake, Lake Balkash, as every website, encyclopaedia, reference book and atlas that I checked seems to have a different figure – which didn’t match any of the four options given in the multiple choice paper.  I don’t know the Russian Literature that they have to read, and I can’t help with their Kyrgyz homework at all.

The most difficult moment, however, is when it comes to preparing for mealtimes.

I am used to catering for myself.  That often means going out for dinner, but sometimes I do cook for myself.

When I was a student, (many, many years ago), I used to have a “cook book” called “Cooking in a Bedsitter”.   I did like that book.  The recipes were for one or two people; they were simple and easy to prepare and cook; I can find the ingredients without any problem in the local shops and markets.  Now I am having to cook for five, so not only are the quantities bigger and sometimes I have difficulty finding the right ingredients.

I might well cook myself a large casserole, or curry, and either eat it several days in a row or eat some and freeze the rest for later.  If I am in a hurry, I can settle for a snack, but cooking for five means that every meal has to be properly prepared.

But worst of all, they are so “picky”!

None of them eat lamb, some don’t eat Chicken, sweet corn is a “no-no” for some of them, and for others it is necessary to avoid mushrooms.

Even when we have some local dish that I know they like, such as Manti, Maxim will dissect the dish, pushing this or that to the side of the plate declaring “eto ne vakoosniy” – “it’s not tasty”.

Maxim has another habit that I find hard to deal with … he will pick something up and hold it to his nose to smell it.  Now, I think that I understand this when its vegetables or meat … he’s checking to see if it is still OK to eat and hasn’t “gone off” … but he will also hold of can of peas, or something straight out of the freezer to his nose to smell it … and that I just don’t understand.

Indeed, I don’t know how he survives, yet alone how he manages to find the energy to ride his BMX bike, play baseball and grow something like half a centimeter every month.