This month, as well as the usual monthly reports, because it is December, there was also the matter of preparing the annual summaries.  Normally that is a major task and it takes the two accountants in Bishkek, (both of them called Tatiana), a couple of months to complete.  That’s partly because the Bishkek operation is so much larger and partly because it has to be interspersed with other routine work.

In Naryn it is much easier, partly because it is a smaller operation, but also because at this time of year things are very quiet.  Very few people travel to, or through, Naryn in the “dead of winter”.  This is not all that surprising when you remember that Naryn is known as the coldest town in Kyrgyzstan – where the temperature has been known to fall to -40 degrees Celsius. 

Fortunately, it wasn’t that cold this time, although at nine o’clock this morning as we gathered to leave, the thermometer revealed why there was a distinct chill in the morning air: it was -22.

However, the boiler had been stoked and although the radiators were not exactly ‘hot to the touch’ they generated enough heat to take the bite out of the cold and inside the guesthouse it was snug and warm.  I did feel the cold, however, when I went outside to walk around the building. It was bright and sunny and although there was still snow on the ground, it wasn’t thick and in places much of it had melted.  There was, however, a bitter wind which sent a biting sensation through my legs.  As usual, I was dressed like and onion, (or as they say here – like a cabbage), and around my body I had donned several different layers as protection against the cold, (a T–shirt, shirt, pullover and leather jacket).  There were, however, fewer layers around my legs and the wind found it easier to penetrate through them and my legs felt the full impact.

I really ought to have known better.  Each year, one of the newsletters that I subscribe to, this one is about ‘Health and Safety at Work’, includes articles on working in extreme temperatures: heat in summer and cold in winter, with advice to pass onto employees in training sessions.

Then again, last month I had managed to catch a chill on my trip to Naryn and this month, I could feel another one coming on.  Also, in my first year out here I had two encounters with the extremes of climate that we experience in Central Asia … the very hot summers and very cold winters.

Back in the UK, extremes of temperatures never really worried me – but then we don’t really get ‘extremes’, or at least we didn’t until recent years.  During the winter, I would don several layers as I do here, and only my bodily extremities, (ears, nose fingers and toes), ever felt the cold.

During the summer, I was often seen wearing a pullover – albeit a sleeveless one.  Here, on the other hand, the summer is so hot that wearing a pullover during the in summer, even a light sleeveless one, is not just a sign of eccentricity, it is tantamount to stupidity.  (Unless, that is, one is high in the mountains where it can get distinctly chilly.  Indeed, in the evenings and at night it can be distinctly cold and as a result we always advise clients to bring a pullover, just in case.)

Well, back in 1995, I hadn’t been here for long and started to feel unwell, faint and weak.  I was taken to a doctor who told me that is was a simple case of not having properly acclimatised.  I was no longer on an island with an equitable climate where there were newspaper headlines of “Phew, what a scorcher!” if the temperature went into the mid-twenties or higher.  I just had to look after myself.  She was right, and apart from the odd case of getting a bad touch of sunburn, I have always tried to do so.

The following winter I experienced the extremes of cold.  It was only about -18, (something I don’t think I had ever experienced before but which I tend to take in my stride these days), but the wind chill factor made it feel more like -24.  I wrapped up warm and went for a walk to the shops.  I forget what it was that I wanted to buy, but it involved a visit to a shop about two kilometres from the apartment.  There was snow underfoot but the weather was fine and it was bright and sunny, very inviting for a brisk walk, so I decided against taking a taxi and set off.  Having made my purchases I walked back as well.

All was well until that night when I got undressed to go to bed.  As I took off my trousers I was shocked to see that my legs were a bright red.  Well, not all the way up.  The shins and thighs and then there was a clear line where the red disappeared and the usual pale fleshy colour appeared.  I sat and worried about what it could signify – a rash?, a skin disease?, scarlet fever?  The clear and distinct line, however, suggested something different.  It was as if I had been sunbathing in shorts.  As I sat thought about it, I realised, that’s where my coat, a short Anorak, had finished.  My torso had been well and truly protected from the elements with several layers, but around my legs the only protection had been the thin material of a pair of suit trousers.  It took some time for the red to disappear.  I vowed to myself never to let it happen again.

Now I do have pairs of ‘long johns’ and I do take the trouble to wear them.  Sometimes, on my trips to Naryn in winter, I even wear two pairs of trousers, one over the other, as well as the ‘long johns’.  I have even been known to don a pair of tracksuit trousers as well!

It’s just a matter of being sensible and, in the words of scout motto, being prepared.

The locals, of course, are always well prepared.  They may often look like Santa Clause or Humpty Dumpty, but that doesn’t mean that they are all fat or obese.  Underneath their thick coats are layer upon layer of thick clothing.

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For the record:  Here is the advice we give to clients regarding Dressing for Cold Weather.

“When dressing for the cold, dress like an onion.”

Three lighter layers of clothing are much better than one heavy layer. Multiple layers, like the layers of an onion, allow you to control how much body heat and moisture you retain near your skin .  Staying dry means staying warm, and staying warm means staying comfortable. Note that you may need larger sizes in outer garments in order to have them fit over underneath layers.

Don’t forget : hat and gloves.

Cold Weather Clothing List : Long undergarment top, Long undergarment bottom, Vest, Sweater(s), Shell garment top, Shell garment bottom, Trousers, Stocking cap, Gloves, Mittens

How to Wear Cold Weather Clothing

It’s not simply the fact that you’re wearing layers that protects you – you must ventilate the layers to allow the escape of moisture as you feel sweat being produced on your skin. Peel off layers when you feel yourself sweating. The layers, of course, are added back on when you feel a chill creeping in.  It is better to start out feeling slightly cold. You’ll “break a sweat” with a rush of perspiration, and you may soak your inner layers before you realize it. If the trail begins to grow steeper, and you detect the wet warmth of sweat, then open an outer layer or two. If the trail rises even more, then take off an outer layer or two. At the top of the ridge stop for a rest, and there you should replace a layer before all the heat you’ve produced has been lost. If you lose heat, your body will have to generate more heat. You’re balancing body heat and sweat production with body heat and sweat loss in order to stay dry. Instead of thinking, “How can I stay warm?,” think, “How can I stay dry?”

COLD Clothing Tips

C – Clean clothes insulate better than soiled clothes. Clean fibres create more dead air space. Start with clean clothes and keep them as clean as possible.

O – Overheating means more sweat to dampen clothes. Pace yourself and shed outer layers to prevent overheating.

L – Layers of clothing are best. They provide better insulation and better ventilation.

D – Dry clothes insulate better than damp clothes. Keep your clothes as dry as possible.

The world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux.  In the past the world’s climate has changed due to natural causes, but more recently the term “climate change” has been used to refer to the changes which have been identified since the early 1990′s and can be attributed to the impact of human activities.

“Global Warming” refers to the documented increase of the earth’s surface since the middle of the twentieth century, based upon worldwide temperature records which have been kept since the 1880s.  It is estimated that the average surface temperature has risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius in that time and projections of various climate models suggest that this increasing trend will continue – with the global temperature rising up to another six degrees warmer – with implications of the changing climate patterns and with major implications on the impact this will have on human lifestyles and activity.

The situation is not “clear cut”, however, and there are skeptics who cast doubt on some of the predictions based on the fact that the world’s weather patters are a dynamic system which is in a constant state of change and flux; that it is difficult to identify and ascertain with any certainty the effects of individual elements within the complex weather systems and the difficulty in predicting their possible future interaction variety as shown by the variety of different results produced by different models.

There is, however, evidence to suggest that something is happening and that human activities are contributing to some extent to the changes being observed.

Evidence

Some of the indicators of Climate Change and Global Warming are:

• Records of weather statistics show that global temperatures have risen: by over 0.7C in the last 300 years and at least 0.5C of this warming occurred during the 20th century.  Most of this change occurred during the periods from 1910 to 1940 and from 1976 onwards
• Four out of five of the warmest years ever recorded were in the 1990′s
• The 1990′s was the warmest decade of the last millennium with 1998 being the warmest year globally since records began in 1861, and 1999 was the warmest year on record in the UK
• January-June 2002 was the warmest start to a year in the northern hemisphere
• The total number of cold days (where the average temperature was under 0C) has fallen from between 15 and 20 per year prior to the twentieth century, to around 10 per year in recent years
• 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years of daily measurements – 26 days above 20C
• Sea levels are rising globally, (by between 0.1 and 0.2 meters over the last 100 years)
• The arctic sea ice is thinning
• Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since the late 1960′s by around 10%
• Mountain glaciers in non polar regions have retreated significantly during the 20th century
• There is evidence of more precipitation in large parts of the World – an increase of 0.5-1% per decade in many mid and high level areas of the northern hemisphere and there has been a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events
• In Asia and Africa there has been an increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the last few decades

There are observable changes in the composition of the atmosphere.  About 99% of the earth’s atmosphere comprises of just two gases: nitrogen and oxygen, the remaining one per cent is made up of a number of trace elements which are thought to have a major effect on weather patterns, such as carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Water vapour and Halocarbons.  All of these have seen increases in the last century.

Carbon dioxide can be produced by burning fossil fuels and deforestation reduces the plant stock which helps to reduce the balance between production and elimination of the gas in the atmosphere.  (The capital city of Bishkek has a population of approximately one million people with over 200,000 vehicles.   Many of these are old, in poor working condition and fuel inefficient, contributing to the fact that Bishkek is thought to produce half of the country’s Carbon Dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. )

Burning fossil fuels also contributes to the increase of Nitrous Oxide, as does the increased use of Nitrogen based fertilizers and the operation of sewerage plants.  Methane is produced by bacteria and an increase in livestock farming and growing rice has led to an increase in Methane levels in the atmosphere.  Perhaps the best known source of Halocarbons are the CFC gases uses in aerosols and refrigeration units.  Water vapour is perhaps the odd-man-out in that human activity seems to have little impact on levels in the atmosphere … the amount of water vapour present in the atmosphere depends more on the temperature of the air than anything else, and as the atmosphere warms up, so it can hold more water vapour.

Impact

Although a small country, Kyrgyzstan is prone to mudflows, landslides and floods, and certain regions also suffer droughts and water shortages.  Although these are not new phenomena, people also notice a range of climatic changes that they claim they have never experienced before, such intense storms causing considerable damage to property and crops.  In the past, folklore has variously linked these to rocket launches from Baikonur, Chinese Atomic tests at Lop Nur, operations of the high altitude Kumtor Gold Mine, fallout from burning oil wells during the Gulf War and, of course, to Global Warming.

Amongst the potential impacts of Climate Change on both the natural environment and on human society, (lifestyles and activities), are significant.  These include:

Rises in sea levels across the world – including an increase in flooding of many lowland areas … with implications for many small island systems and land use and management – especially in coastal regions, (which contain thirteen of the fifteen largest cities in the world).  Being a landlocked country, it might be considered that Kyrgyzstan would not be affected by such a change, but although there would be no direct impact on the country, there could/would be secondary, indirect, implications for the country.

Reduction of the polar ice-caps, (contributing to the rises in sea level), and mountain glaciers.  Although a 1994 guide book to Kyrgyzstan says that many of the glaciers were advancing, more recent evidence indicates that they are, actually, in the process of retreating and a joint report from the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) says that during the twentieth century the area under glaciers in the Tien Shan range decreased by 25-35%.  Another report, (from the Technical University of Dresden, issued in 2005), commenting on the Northern Tien Shan where the Kyrgyz and Kazakh borders meet, says that the glacier melt in the region corresponds with temperature changes with only a “little decrease” occurring in the period 1960-1975, but increasing significantly from 1975 onwards when the glaciated area decreased by 35-40 percent.  The situation is spread uniformly throughout the country.  For example glaciers on the Southern slopes of mountain ranges are disappearing at a greater rate than those on other slopes.  The retreat of the glaciers will almost certainly have a number of serious effects on the environment, agriculture and economy as the glaciers of the Tien Shan provide the key source of water for rivers and mountain streams which in turn feed irrigation systems and reservoirs used for hydro-electricity production, (not just in Kyrgyzstan but across the whole region of Central Asia), and water supply for the urban centres such as Bishkek.   The year 2008, in particular saw a dramatic fall in the water levels at the strategic Toktogul Reservoir leading to “electricity rationing” being introduced.

The growth of crops depends heavily on suitable weather conditions and seasonal variations … the temperature, amounts and distribution of sunshine and precipitation.  The traditional range of vegetation and crops grown in a region may have to change to meet new circumstances.  There may be an increased need for water resources for irrigation for crops.  New weather patterns may also result in changing distributions of agricultural pests such as locusts and aphids – both a potential problem in Kyrgyzstan.

A change in the distribution of insects might also lead to health issues, such as changes in the incidence and distribution of insect borne diseases such as malaria and Encephalitis.  In 2008, for example, Kyrgyzstan saw a rise in the incidence of malaria which was hitherto a rare occurrence, especially in the Northern parts of the country.  There may be other health implications as people have to adapt to more extreme temperatures and different rainfall patterns, as droughts and flooding cause damage to infrastructure such as water and sewerage systems, and so on.

The impacts of climate change won’t affect just humans – they will have implications on the natural wildlife as well, as habitats change and unusual species migrate to new areas.  Migratory birds, many of which pass through Kyrgyzstan, may find that their traditional migratory patters are no longer appropriate.  Plants, (trees, shrubs, etc.) will also have to adapt to meet the new environmental conditions.  It is suggested that one of the possible causes leading to increased mudslides and landslides in Kyrgyzstan could well be deforestation.

There is a trend towards the development of renewable forms of energy, some of which offer strong potential for Kyrgyzstan, such as: Wind farms, solar power, Geothermal heat pumps and Hydro electric power.  For example, there have been proposals to establish a Wind farm near Balykchi, at least one mining company is working on developing Geothermal power systems and there are already sixteen hydroelectric power stations range from small stations to the 1200 megawatt Toktogul Power Station at the head of the Toktogul Reservoir.  The Toktogul dam on the Naryn River and associated power complex were constructed in 1973 – the 215m high dam flooded part of the river valley creating a massive reservoir, which takes an hour to bypass as the Bishkek-Osh road skirts its shore.  Planned as one of a series of dams across the mighty river – the complete cascade was never finished but the plans still exist and there are proposals to complete the cascade on the upper part of the river and the Kambarata.  There are also a number of projects to produce small, local – community based, hydro-electric stations.

The dependence on hydroelectric power has other implications for Kyrgyzstan, however, as an “upstream country”, at the head of the Central Asian Water Tower.  Water from the Toktogul Reservoir is important not just for the production of electrical energy, but also for irrigation further downstream – with implications for the agriculture and economies of “downstream countries”.  In 2008-9 the water level in the reservoir fell perilously close to the minimum levels for sustainability and this resulted in rolling power cuts (outages) throughout the country.

The Kyoto Protocol, or the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is an international treaty on climate change. It is actually an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries which ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.  The objective is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.  Kyrgyzstan is one of the 157 countries that have ratified the protocol – they have acceded to it (one of the stages of ratification). : http://unfccc.int

The “tourist season” in Kyrgyzstan is traditionally in the summer months – from mid-June to mid-September.  This is when most people visit – especially those from the countries of the former Soviet Union who spend their holidays on the shores of Lake Issyk Kul.  The days are warm – indeed they can be hot – but the nights are cool.

The climate of Kyrgyzstan is Continental – that means hot summers and cold winters. A climate of extremes – and because people often feel more uncomfortable in the extreme cold of the winter, they sometimes forget that the summers can also be extreme – hot and dry! Temperatures can vary widely even on the same day, at the same place – it is possible to experience “all four seasons” in one day – especially when travelling in the mountains – where snow can fall even in the height of summer, in July and August.

The choice of when to travel however depends very much on the purpose of the journey, for example:

• Spring flowers usually bloom in May.
• The shepherds move their their livestock to the high mountain pastures (“Jailoo”) and erect their yurts towards the end of June – and return to the lowlands again for the winter, dismantling their yurts towards the end of September.
• During these months a number of festivals are arranged.
• The At Chabysh festival – with traditional horse races and national games, is held on the first weekend in November.
• Saimaluu Tash is only really avaible in July and August.
• Most of the rain falls in the Kyrgyz Krebet, (the mountain range south of Bishkek) in May and June.
• Although snow can fall in the mountains at any time of the year – and there are fields of everlasting snow at the higher altitudes – for those interested in winter sports it is worth noting that most snowfall occurs in the early months of the year – January and February.

Some weather statistics:

• The average number of days of sunshine per year is 322 (although., for example, in 1999 Bishkek received only 247).  Even in winter when there can be heavy falls of snow, the sun can shine brightly. Thaws are frequent and melted snow can refreeze overnight making a treacherous surface for both pedestrians and vehicles.
• The maximum-recorded temperature was 44°C at the Chuiskaya weather station.
• On 27^th June 2000 Bishkek recorded the highest temperature in 100 years 39.2°C.
  • The minimum recorded temperature was  -54°C at the Ak-Sai weather station.
• The average minimal temperature across the country -24°C.
• Average Daily Temperature in the valleys
  • - in July: 25-27°C
  • - in January: -4°C
• Average Annual Temperature
  • - in Bishkek: -1°C
  • - in Osh: 0°C
• The average annual rainfall is 380 mm, mostly falling in April
  • The highest recorded rainfall was at the Aktera-Gava weather station on the Western Ferghana ridges: 1090 mm
  • The lowest rainfall was at Karakol, the western extremity of the Issyk-Kul basin: 144 m.

The coldest winter weather that I remember back in Britain was that of 1963 – in what is referred to by us Brits as “The Big Freeze”.  It was the third coldest winter in Britain since records began in 1659 – only the winters of 1683/4 and 1739/40 had been colder.  A cold East wind set in on December 22nd, and snow started falling on Boxing Day, (the 26th), followed by a blizzard a couple of days later.  Snowdrifts rose to 20 feet in places, roads and railways were blocked, villages cut off and power lines brought down.  In January the temperatures fell to -16 degrees so that rivers froze over, and even the sea froze off Herne Bay in Kent, in the South of the country.   The cold temperatures  meant that the snow did not melt and then, in February, a blizzard brought gale force winds and more snow.  It was only in March that temperatures rose and the snow finally disappeared.

It was such an unusual winter … there were many years when there was just the odd flurry of snow and others when we never saw any snow at all.   To me, as a small boy, it was all very exciting – at least vat the beginning.  I remember dressing “like an onion” with layer upon layer, to go out and play snowball fights with my brother in the back garden.  My mother knitted gloves but they got soaked as I handled the snowballs and hands felt frozen.  We didn’t have central heating, few places did in those days, but the coal fires in the living room kept us warm and cozy as we stared out at the white expanse wondering when it would all end.

Although we didn’t experience anything quite as bad again – apparently, that is, until this year, we did see snow from time to time.   I remember sitting in school a few years later and watching the snow fall outside and one of the teachers commented how “Canada could see meters of snow fall and they just carry on as normal, but we see a couple of inches and everything stops.”  That struck me as a bit unfair … Canada, like Siberia, sees a lot more snow than we did in Britain, and so they are they were used to it and better prepared.  Their buildings were designed to cope with the temperatures and their systems established to mitigate the worst effects of extreme temperatures or heavy snowfalls.

In Britain, we were never really prepared for “extremes” in weather.  Our preparations seem to be limited to making extra social security payments to pensioners and others if the temperatures fall below zero for several days in a row, and sending out the “gritting lorries” to gather salt or grit on the roads.  One winter the snow started falling and we carried on teaching up to the final bell at 3:45, and the children started to trudge their way home, some not completing their usual half hour walk until 8:00pm – some four hours later.    Another time we had the first snowfall for several years and the following morning the roads seemed to be littered with car accidents as a whole “generations” of new drivers suddenly found that they had to some to grips with the (at least to them) new and strange weather conditions.

We have a client due to fly in from London later in the week and the forecast does not look good – he has warned us that he may not be able to make it to the airport … and even ifg he does, the airport may still be closed, and the the flight cancelled.

And it is not just snow which throws us.  Even the hurricane of 1987 caught everyone by surprise – even the weatherman, Michael Fish, said there wouldn’t be one. but when it arrived overnight it brought down trees (including some of the famous “Seven Oaks” which gave the town in Kent its name and created general havoc.

Although there were several occasions since the “Big Freeze” of 1963 when snow fell and it was quite cold, the next time I experienced a really cold winter was when I came here to Kyrgyzstan.  Kyrgyzstan has a Continental climate, which hot summers and cold winters.  In my first winter here I took a walk to some shops – maybe a couple of kilometers there – and a couple back.  It was bitterly cold and the wind was biting.  I didn’t worry about it too much, however, until later that night when I was getting undressed for bed.  It was then that I realized that on my upper body I had, as in my childhood, been dressed “like an onion” with several layers of clothes too keep me warm.  On my legs, however, there was only one layer – my trousers – and I noticed that there was a line across across my thighs where my coat had stopped – above it my skin was its normal colour, but below it my legs were a bright red.

I don’t like the cold – the climate is one of the few things in Kyrgyzstan that I find difficult to cope with – it can be too hot for me in summer and too cold in winter.  I quite like the snow – but there was one occasion when I stepped on what I thought was snow on firm ground, and found it as actually soft snow in a hole and my leg sank in it up to my groin. Passers by were very concerned … was I OK?, was I hurt?  … in fact, I was fine, and once I got over the surprise, I bust into laughter.  I am not sure what they made of that.  The ice that forms on the pavements, on the other hand, is another thing … it can very slippery and treacherous, and I have slid over onto my back on several occasions … and I remember on one occasion, lying on my back in some pain, thinking: “I think I have I broken my back”.  Fortunately, I was wrong!

That year we had snow in December.  That was quite unusual as, although there may be the odd flurry of snow earlier, it doesn’t normally arrive until the middle of January.  As it happens, we had a “White Christmas” here in Bishkek.  When I got up on Christmas morning it was still dark and so I didn’t notice anything for a couple of hours … then I looked out of the window and saw snow lying on the ground.  It was a light covering, not even two inches thick (that’s about five centimeters), but for those Western ex-pats still here in Bishkek, it made our day.  Ever since Bing Crosby sang about it, the idea of a “white Christmas” has captivated people in the West.  We have some visitors from Australia and the nine year old boy in particular was delighted to be able to scamper around in the snow.

In fact, very few Christmases are “white” in either the US or in Britain.  The odds are against it.  Apparently, in the time of Charles Dickens,  the winters in Britain were generally harsher than they are now, (this year excepted), and snow during December was more likely than it is today.  Hence all those Christmas cards with Georgian and Victorian snow scenes with carriages ploughing their way through drifts.  Today, in the United Kingdom, bets are placed on the question and the official definition of a white Christmas used to decide if someone has won the bet or not is if there is, apparently, if snow falls on the roof of the Meteorological Office in London.

Here, of course, everyone hopes for a White New Year – Christmas comes on January 7th according to the Orthodox Calendar and, although it is a national holiday, it doesn’t have the same significance that it does back home.  Although we had a White Christmas, and more snow is forecast for the Orthodox Christmas, there was no snow for New Year and, in fact, it was quite warm – almost like a Spring day.  Everyone is saying that it is a sign of Global Warming.

According to one analysis, a four degree rise in Global temperatures is likely to mean something like a six or seven degree rise here in Central Asia.  I am not sure, however, what the effect on weather patterns will be … Kyrgyzstan has a Continental climate, which hot summers and cold winters … will they both be warmer or will the summers be warmer and the winters colder?

I suppose that the British preoccupation with the weather is understandable given our changeable climate.  The Irish folksong may well have referred to “Perfidious Albion”, (the phrase actually comes from a French poem written in the late 18th century), but in Russian the most common version of the phrase is “Foggy Albion”.  They seem to have the impression that Britain, (and London in particular), is in cloaked in a permanent fog haze.  Part of this is connected with the interest in the case of Jack the Ripper and the “pea-soup” fogs of the 1950′s before the Clean Air Act was adopted.  For the record – Britain is not usually foggy … and I sometimes get tired of explaining that we normally fog mainly in the autumn months.

It’s also known for it’s rainfall.

It’s true that we do get a lot of rainfall.  Britain is an island and the Gulf Stream current and associated airflows bring warm air and moisture across the Atlantic Ocean and over the country.

Thompson and Thompson, two of the characters in Herge’s “Adventures of Tintin”, (in the original French they were called Dupont and Dupont), caricature the image of an Englishman in typical modern dress: they wear black suits, Bowler hats, and carry umbrellas.  I am not very good at wearing hats … I lose them … I put them down somewhere and forget to take them when I leave.  It’s the same with umbrellas.  As a result I rarely use either.  Often, when I go out and it is raining, I get asked: “Haven’t you got and umbrella?”, and I usually reply something like: “No, I always lose them.  Anyway, why do I need one?  I’m an Englishman and I am not worried by a little bit of rain … I’ll dodge between the raindrops.”

As well as bringing rain, the Gulf Stream makes the climate very variable.  We can have bright sunshine one day and it can rain heavily the next – although nothing like an Indian Monsoon!  As a result. our summers tend to be cooler than those experienced on the main European continent, and the winters milder.  The climate is classified as “Temperate Maritime”.

The Kyrgyz climate, on the other hand, is “Continental” and is typified by hot dry summers and cold winters.

I remember that in my first summer here I found the heat a little difficult to bear.  It was the first time I had ever experienced long periods of continuously hot temperatures, (what I considered to be “extreme” heat – but nothing like is experienced in some parts of the world), often well into the 30′s.

By contrast, the winters can be very cold, (though nothing like the temperatures encountered in Siberia or the Antarctic).  Naryn, where we have a guesthouse, is known as the coldest town in Kyrgyzstan and temperatures have been known to fall as low as minus 40 degrees centigrade.  That winter, my first here, I went to go shopping and walked just over a mile, (just over one and a half kilometres), to one of the main shops and then walked back to the apartment.  When I went to bed that evening I was shocked to see that my legs were red raw.  Over my upper body I had worn a vest (singlet), shirt, pullover, jacket, and short coat, but over my legs I had worn just trousers.  My legs had been exposed to the biting wind and suffered accordingly.  It was a lesson I learned well.  Nowadays, when I go out in the winter, especially up to to Naryn, I always make sure that I take extra clothes, (especially “long johns”), and sometimes wear a pair of jeans over a second pair of trousers!

It’s odd really, because, when I was young I was never really bothered about temperatures.  At school I could wander around in a pullover at the height of summer or in shirt sleeves in the dead of winter.  That might have been because of the mild climate in Britain, or a feature of my contrary nature … I’m not sure.  Now, I am much more careful and attentive to changes in temperature.  I suppose that could be a feature of growing older, or just adapting to a more extreme climate.  Once again, I’m not sure.  Despite this, however, I can still be seen in a pullover in the middle of summer with the sun bearing down on a hot day and in shirtsleeves on a cold, blustery, winter’s day, when it is cold outside.   The reason is quite simple: I tend to get up early in the morning and it is not clear what the day is going to be like, so I think about what it was like yesterday and dress accordingly.  Because the weather is not exactly predictable or consistent, I sometimes get it wrong and get caught out …

We can experience very variable weather conditions her in Kyrgyzstan – just like back in Britain.  It is one of the claims for Kyrgyzstan that its a place where it is possible to experience all four seasons in one day, especially if you travel into the mountains.  In the morning it can be bright and fresh like a spring day, and later the sun can bear down like a hot summer’s day, then it may cloud over and the wind blow up like on an autumn day, followed by a snow storm.  It can make it difficult to know what to wear.  We always advise visitors to bring a sweater with with them even at the height of summer as you never know what the weather is going to do … and when you go into the mountains, it can get very cold, especially at night.

One thing about life here in Kyrgyzstan is the amount of sunshine we get.  When I first came to Kyrgyzstan, I was told that there were 300 days of sunshine a year but that was probably an exaggeration …  one source says that the average is 322 days, but another says it is only 247 days, (now, that is quite a big difference!).  As a former Maths teacher I tend to treat such figures with disdain … how do you define a “sunny day”?  Some of the weather services quote different statistics, (for example the number of hours of sunshine in a month, or the percentage of sunshine, each month), which are perhaps more meaningful but not so useful and attention grabbing as “Headline” figures.

Even if the figures are open to question, there is no doubt that there are a lot of days when the sun shines here in Kyrgyzstan.  Even in the dead of winter with snow lying on the ground, it is not unusual for the sun to be shinning brightly.

Sunshine is usually thought to be a good thing.

For example, we talk about someone, especially our loved ones – our spouse or our children – as being “the sunshine of our lives”

It seems that it is  important for our health:  Sunshine is the source of Vitamin D, a chemical generated in skin which is exposed to sunlight and is important for the maintenance of the body’s organs and the immune system.  A deficiency in Vitamin D can lead to a number of disorders such as Rickets in children and weak bones in adults.

Also, sunshine seems to be important  for our happiness and well being: It seems that sunshine is important factor in making us feel happy.  At least, a lack of sunlight is considered to be one of the primary causes of “Seasonal Affective Disorder”, (appropriately abbreviated as SAD ), which can bring on severe mood changes and depression in people. The disorder occurs mainly in the winter and is markedly  more  – and is also known as Winter depression or the “Winter Blues”

On the other hand, sunshine also has its drawbacks.  Many people find direct sunlight too bright for comfort and wear sunglasses, peaked caps or visors.  Cars often have darkened windows.  When I do sit in the sun, (possibly sunbathing – but probably not), I find myself squinting when I am trying to read a book, (When I do sunbathe, I like to read because it helps me to feel that I am not wasting my time).  Indeed, looking directly at the sun can cause permanent damage to the eyes, which is why you are not supposed to look directly at an eclipse of the sun.

Sunshine has also been linked to types of skin cancer, even sunburn can lead to inflammation.  I have vitiligo – a skin disorder which causes the loss of pigment in the skin and results in pale (and sometimes purple) patches of skin appearing.  Most people who develop vitiligo do so, apparently, in their youth – before they are twenty – but, to be honest, I can’t remember when I first noticed it.  For young people, especially, it can be quite worrying but I’ve never been concerned about it … it isn’t very marked, (the most notable sign is the dark brown rings around the eyes), doesn’t hurt and I have never been all that worried about my appearance and being one of the beautiful people.  Also, the people here are not worried about it, it is not seen as a stigma as it is in some parts of the world.  One thing I am conscious of is that the pale skin, because it lacks pigmentation, lesions can develop and are more prone to develop skin cancer.  There are various ways to avoid this.  The Australians used to have a “Slip, slop, slap” campaign:  “slip on a shirt, slop on sunscreen, and slap on a hat”.  My doctor tells me that I should always be careful when I go into the mountains in the summer – for example, up to Naryn – and to always wear a hat.  However, as I said, I am not very good at wearing hats … I lose them.

Normally, people from colder countries, (like the UK), tend to prefer sunny climates and avoid the shade.  They sunbathe a lot and like to get a tan.  Personally, I don’t really like sunbathing, it seems such a waste of time … as I said, I usually read a book while others lie back and soak up the sun’s rays.  In hotter countries people try to stay in the shade and stay indoors in the middle of the day when the sun is at its strongest.

They also seem to appreciate rain.  I am often surprised to hear comments from locals like: “I love the rain”.   Despite what I said above about changeable weather conditions and experiencing all four seasons in one day, we don’t really get that much rain here in Bishkek during the long hot sultry days of summer.  As a result, a shower can freshen things up and cool things down, and in that way it is a pleasant thing.  It’s also good for the plants, the fruit and crops that need water to grow.

In recent times it has also been important for another reason.  The mountains of Kyrgyzstan are home to a number of Hydro electric power stations – dams holding back extensive reservoirs.  The first reservoir constructed in the country, (the Orto Tokoi reservoir, just outside Kochkor), was built for irrigation purposes, not hydroelectricity, but many of those subsequently but were for generating power.  Indeed, after almost 18 years of Independence, there are now plans for even more, massive, power plants to be constructed in the near future.

The largest reservoir in the country is behind the Toktogul Dam which controls the flow of the River Naryn and generates much of the country’s electricity output.  Unfortunately, in recent years the level of water in the reservoir has been falling, and this was made worse by the very cold winter in 2007, which led to a over the last winter (2008/9) there wasn’t enough water in order to maintain production art the sort of levels the country needed.  It was clear there was a serious problem fairly early on because there was an official announcement that the “plan” for replenishing the water levels in the reservoir hadn’t been fulfilled.  Plans here are always fulfilled.  It was a feature of the Soviet Centralized Planning of the Economy.  The plan was all important.  It was always fulfilled.  So an official announcement that it hadn’t was quite an admission.

Anyway, as a result we faced a winter of rolling power cuts.

This week, the forecast is for rain nearly every day … light rain and showers … which will please quite a lot of people and be good for the crops, and the reservoirs … and, people keep joking about how it will help to remind me of home.

The risk is two fold – both in the short term, (in the immediate period shortly after the predictions are made), and also the long term, (possibly well into the future, long after the author of the prophecies is dead, when people are able to look back and review if the prediction has been fulfilled … or not – in which case they can simply look ridiculous when compared to the actual realities of history).

The more dramatic, or imaginative, the description – the greater is the risk of ridicule and scorn, in both the short and the long term.

The Case of Global Warming.
The term “Global Warming” is used to refer to an increase in the average temperature of the world’s atmosphere and oceans over the course of recent history.

Scientists have discovered that over the centuries the temperature of the earth’s oceans has varied considerably, and has resulted in dramatic changes in the earth’s climate.

We have known for a long time about the various “ice ages” that have occurred, when the polar ice-caps and mountain glaciers have advanced to cover vast areas of the earth’s surface.  Apparently, for most of the earth’s long history there has been virtually no ice cover, but at others considerable sheets of ice have covered much of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres.  There are many reasons why these cold periods occur including the mechanics of plate tectonics, changes in the earth’s orbit and, more recently, especially the effects of a rise in CO2 and what are called the “Greenhouse” grasses.

The earth’s atmosphere has a feature called the “ozone layer” – and in the 1970’s it was discovered that a “hole” was developing in it over the Antarctic.  The scientists argued that the effect of this was that more of the sun’s rays were able to penetrate into, and “warm up”, the lower strata of the atmosphere and the earth’s oceans – as well as increasing exposure of all living things to the potentially harmful effects of dangerous solar radiation.

The discovery of the “hole” led to speculation about both, the causes of and the likely effects resulting from, the phenomenon.  Of course, special attention was given to how it might impact on human life and society.  These speculations varied but centered on predictions of “global warming” and “climate changes” including the possible onset of a new “ice-age”.  They were met with a range of reactions – from being embraced completely with demands for “changes in lifestyle” to outright derision and scorn.

Later measurements indicated that the hole was in fact growing – and the debate widened, fuelled by articles in “glossy” magazines, “serious” newspapers and Hollywood blockbusters.

So, … What has all this to do with Kyrgyz Tourism? Actually, quite a lot …

An increase in tourists?
In 2006 group of economists in the United States examined the likely effects of global warming on different tourist destinations around the world.  Their conclusions implied that certain of the places which, at the moment, are favourite destinations for tourists would experience a dramatic change in their climate – and that this would have an equally dramatic effect on their tourism potential.  Their model suggested that many destinations might experience a drop in the level of tourism by as much as almost 60%.  Other areas, on the other hand would experience an increase in the numbers of tourists.  Kyrgyzstan fell into this second group – and the economists predicted a growth of 89% by the year 2100 in the number of tourist arrivals over what could be expected if global warming did not happen.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
The year 2100 may seem a long way off into the future – but it is unlikely that this will be an immediate, “overnight” effect, but more gradual, developing over a period of time.  Will the Kyrgyz Republic be ready to take advantage of this potential growth?

The suggested increase in tourist numbers of 89% was an increase not on current levels of tourists – but on what could be expected if global warming was not to happen.  The number of tourists visiting Kyrgyzstan is growing … and, it is hoped, will continue to do so.  Even if the increase was based on current levels – then this could mean as much as an extra 890000 visitors to Issyk Kul.  Do we have the facilities?, the available beds?, the staff? … Even to meet a more modest increase in the number of tourists we need to make plans and ensure that the necessary infrastructure is in place – and new investments are encouraged.

One press report about the economists’ research was headlined: “Book your Mongolian Vacation Now” … The model suggested an increase of 122% in the number of tourists for Mongolia.  Mongolia is often identified as one of the traditional competitors for Kyrgyzstan in the “destination market” for Western tourists.  Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia both have spectacular landscapes and mountains; an ecologically clean natural environment with varied wildlife; a nomadic culture; historical connections with the likes of Genghis Khan and so forth.  Mongolia also has scale … and, of course, the name – well known and easily recognizable!  To attract the tourists

However …

As the English poet, John Donne, said, “No man is island entire of itself, every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.”  Events are not isolated but connected to each other by a series of Cause and Effect.

It may well be that a vast number of additional tourists might flock to our mountainsides rather than to some more traditional destinations … if they can get here.  On the other hand, other events may occur to prevent this from happening.

Many nations around the world are already considering what measures they can implement to prevent the worst effects of the hole in the ozone layer, global warming and climate change.  Like Kyrgyzstan, over 160 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and are seeking more “green”, environmentally friendly, alternative energy sources … and how to reduce their “carbon footprint” and the amount of greenhouse gasses they emit … and so forth.

One of the measures available to governments is to introduce new regulations to regulate activities which are thought to influence global warming.  Regulation, however, is often seen as an element of “government control”, an infringement or limitation on the freedom of the individual, and there is often a tendency for people to resist such moves unless there is an overwhelming justification for them.  Another approach which is often adopted is to use the power of persuasion – so that people exercise their freedom of choice and decide for themselves to take appropriate steps to achieve the aim.  One instrument employed by governments to achieve this aim is through taxation.  (Consider, for example, the case of tobacco … where an increase in excise taxes may be justified either to increase revenue to the budget – or to reduce smoking ad the harmful effects on health).

One such measure adopted in Great Britain is a tax (Air Passenger Duty) on air-travel which was doubled at the beginning of 2007.  The effect is likely to be substantial – especially if it is increased still further.  One report in the media was headlined: “Only ‘elite’ will fly long-haul in 30 years!” and another indicated that 55% of the money paid by the passenger for a ticket went in different taxes and cited one case (London to Amsterdam) where taxes amounted to almost 98% of the ticket price. (!)

Faced with higher prices the tourist will be forced into making a series of decisions – not just where to go for their holiday, but how to get there.  “To fly, or not to fly?”, that will be the question.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
Because Kyrgyzstan is so far from many of the world’s main tourist markets this could have serious implications.  It may be that Kyrgyzstan needs to consider other, greener, possibilities.  Perhaps, more attention needs to be paid to other forms of transport – the railway, or coach tours.  Travels along the Silk Road would be an obvious Tour Product which could be promoted to take advantage of this sort of extended “journey” rather than short “vacation” tours.

One aspect of such extended trips is that, because they involve a long time away from home, there is a limited number of people who can take advantage of them.  Typically this includes the student who is taking a gap-year either before or after leaving university.  Another category of traveller who might have the time available would be the retired.

Another implication of this possible trend is that, perhaps, the Kyrgyz Republic should concentrate more of its efforts in marketing nearer to home.  A large proportion of the world’s population lives not far from our borders.  This includes, not only our traditional clients, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia, but also China and India – two “outbound” markets which are emerging as important targets for destinations from all over the world in search of potential visitors.  Perhaps the Kyrgyz Republic, too, should consider these as potential markets, which are ripe for development.

To develop a new market is not easy.  It needs research into what the clientele will be looking for in a destination, (do they want adventure or recreation, what sort of cuisine, entertainment, etc.) and then planning to provide facilities and itineraries to meet those requirements.  Planning and arranging methods of access to Kyrgyzstan from their countries, and simplifying procedures so that genuine tourists can benefit from an encounter with our mountains, landscapes, nature, history, people and culture.

Ecotourism:
There is already a trend towards developing and marketing “environmentally friendly” products. How many tour products are advertised with the label “ecotourism”?  One of the trends which we are likely to meet is an increase in the number of “green” tourists – environmentally aware and looking for products which demonstrate and justify their ecotourism qualifications.

Plans for hotels and tourist attractions already have to meet certain environment standards – to show that their impact on the environment and local communities is minimized – or neutral.

In several countries there are already regulations and procedures being implemented regarding safety and security.  Foreign tour operators who organize tours beyond their own borders have to make “due diligence” checks and inspections with regard to safety and security arrangements provided in the destination to which they send clients.  As “global warming” and “climate change” become a more important issue in the world – we can probably expect governments to implement similar measures with regard to the environmental impact of the itineraries which they offer.

Implications for Kyrgyzstan: e.g. Planning, Marketing and Infrastructure
Tour firms already have many clients who seek “ecotourism” opportunities, who comment upon or enquire about the impact of their visit on the environment and local community.  It will probably be necessary for them to prepare themselves for further scrutiny by tourists and foreign partners.  It won’t, however, stop there.  Kyrgyz tour companies, themselves, will probably have to consider such questions when considering the service providers they use when delivering a tour.  In other words, it is likely to affect everyone involved in tourism.   How many hotels, for example, have undertaken an environmental audit?

Will we be prepared?

Now is the time to consider such questions.  The longer we wait – the more we have to lose.

Written for the journal “Tourism in Kyrgyzstan: Problems, Practice, Perspectives”.